1、 Price trend:

In February 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 5533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 5133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 7.23%.

On February 28, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 56.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.46% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.15% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this month, the cost pressure of hydrobenzene enterprises is still the same. Since the first ten days of February, the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises has continued to rise, and the demand for crude benzene has increased slowly. However, the recent operating load of coking enterprises is only about 60% lower. In addition, due to the impact of transportation, the price of crude benzene has soared, and the coking enterprises are in a strong mood of pricing. The operating rate of downstream styrene and aniline units is still low. The overhaul in March There are many plans. Crude oil and pure benzene fell sharply, the port inventory remained at about 80000 tons, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was reduced to 5350 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with low market demand and high cost pressure on hydrogenated benzene enterprises.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil: this week, the crude oil changed the form of continuous increase last week, falling for four consecutive days, and WTI fell to the lowest point of this year. The spread of the epidemic in many countries has led to increased market worries and a pressure drop in oil prices. Brent was down 10.76% and WTI was down 11.41% compared with February 21.. Pure benzene: this week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton. Downstream: demand for downstream styrene is not strong, and inventory pressure is high. Friday’s price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from last week.

3、 Trend Forecast:

At present, the general loss of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is about 300 yuan / ton, the enterprise cost pressure is prominent, the external market of pure benzene continues to decline, the downstream construction cannot be recovered in a short time, and it is expected that the hydrogenated benzene market will remain weak and stagnant.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt is stable this week, and the price of asphalt is reported to be 3420 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international oil price has basically finished bottoming out, showing a shock recovery market. But at present, the asphalt market is in the off-season stage, the demand of asphalt market has not been greatly improved, the overall demand of the terminal is still poor, and the asphalt market is stable this week.

Industry chain: the impact of China’s epidemic on the international crude oil market is weakening, and China’s crude oil demand has improved. Most of the other producers except Russia support the reduction, but the EIA crude oil inventory increased by 415000 barrels in the week of February 14. This week, the international crude oil market has basically completed bottoming out, showing a shock recovery market.

Asphalt Market: the impact of China’s epidemic is gradually reduced, but the resumption of asphalt road projects is not optimistic, and the overall demand for terminals is still poor. At present, the return to work rate of asphalt terminal enterprises will gradually increase, and the growth rate of asphalt demand is relatively slow. The asphalt prices of refineries in Shandong and Hebei maintain a periodic low point; in Northeast China, although the asphalt prices fell slightly this week; in the southern market, Sinopec’s Asphalt prices have not been adjusted after the festival, and the market prices remain stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that: the international crude oil market is on the rise, the asphalt production cost is rising, and the asphalt prices are relatively low in all regions. With the resumption of asphalt road projects increasing, it is expected that the asphalt market price will probably push up in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell this week, according to data from the business agency. On February 14, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 4500 yuan / ton, down 4.59% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4375 yuan / ton, and on Friday, the price was 4340 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton, down 0.8%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of February 13, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 69.95%, down 0.43% from last week, slightly down.

In terms of units, the 300000 t / a coal to ethylene glycol project of Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. has been ready for resumption at the beginning of this month; the ethylene cracking unit of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is currently running stably, and the 900000 T / a ethylene glycol unit of phase II has been put into operation successfully.

As of February 13, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 621000 tons, an increase of 23000 tons or 3.85% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 5000 tons or 0.8% compared with this Monday.

In the downstream, the polyester operating rate was 58.60%, down 2.5% from last week.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the impact of the epidemic, the resumption of work in the downstream of glycol was slow, and the arrival of goods at the port was also delayed. According to the news, the daily delivery volume of the port this week is about 11200 tons, and the inventory and delivery are at an absolute low compared with the same period last year. At present, the terminal weaving operation rate is slowly picking up, and the crude oil price continues to rise. In the long term, the price of glycol will be supported. However, due to the gradual mass production of new domestic production capacity, the future market price has been suppressed. Glycol prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

PS market trend is generally stable. Before the festival, the downstream purchases on demand, the overall market trading performance is poor, and the pace of shipment has slowed down significantly. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9150-10300 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 9950-11300 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market situation: Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS factory price, 525 price is 8900 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 9500 yuan / ton for 525, and 9500 yuan / ton for Jiangsu saibaolong PS.

3、 Future forecast

PS market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the overall transaction atmosphere is not ideal. The factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises has been lowered individually, which may form a certain negative guidance for PS quotation of plastic city. PS market trend is expected to be weak forward.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of business news reports, this week’s pure benzene rose after the fall, a weak shock. Last Friday, the price of pure benzene was 5500-5950 yuan / ton, and this Friday, the price of pure benzene was 5600-5950 yuan / ton, 0.17% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Products: near the Spring Festival, pure benzene port inventory has accumulated. With the completion of downstream replenishment of inventory, the completion of traders’ replenishment of empty space and insufficient crude oil support, the operation of pure benzene is weak this week.

2. Crude oil: this week, oil prices fell in shock. Early in the week, the impact of tensions in the Middle East subsided, and the focus of the market turned to the impact of the surge in US oil product inventories. On Wednesday morning, the United States and China signed the first stage trade agreement, which was good for oil prices, and oil prices began to pick up. WTI fell 0.7% and Brent 3.78% compared to January 10.

3. Downstream industry: styrene price is stable this week compared with last week. Due to the downstream stock up before the festival, the shipment of aniline was smooth, and the price was increased by 1.56% compared with last week. Most of the downstream products of pure benzene are in the loss of theoretical production and lack of support for the price of pure benzene.

4. External market: the current external market pure benzene is close to the contract negotiation next month, some businesses have a strong price mentality, the overall external market price shows a small upward trend, but the support for the domestic market is weak.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, affected by the signing of the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States, oil prices are expected to gradually pick up.

2. Market: Hengli Petrochemical styrene will be tested in late January, when the sales volume of pure benzene will be reduced, it will be good for pure benzene. However, the announcement of the latest Sino US trade agreement raised industry concerns about the inflow of styrene from the United States. The market price of styrene has a downside risk, which is bad for the pure benzene market.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the price of pure benzene in the later period will be lower or weaker.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1583 yuan / ton, and the offer was temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid for individual enterprises declined, and that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1500 yuan / ton, with stable price; that of Anhui Jinhe was 1450 yuan / ton on Monday, with 50 yuan / ton lower than the previous price; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid was 1800 yuan / ton, with stable price temporarily. Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Huainan Audley chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1500 yuan / ton, which is basically stable; nitric acid demand has not improved, and the price trend is weak.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, rose 1.11% this week (1.13-17) according to the monitoring of the business society, mainly due to the slight price increase of some enterprises at the beginning of the week, mainly affected by the low ammonia volume of enterprises. Downstream aniline, the overall weak operation.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, the nitric acid analyst of the business association predicted that the nitric acid may continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

At the beginning of this week, EPS price is 9087 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, EPS price is 9087 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the market is more volatile, and the transaction turns better. Traders and downstream factories receive goods on demand, mainly focusing on market transactions.

2、 Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price is stable, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9050 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials.

3、 Future forecast

In addition to maintaining the necessary procurement, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream plant of EPS is not high. Besides, the intention of goods preparation is always low, and the terminal demand has been in a poor state. It is expected that EPS prices will be mainly in shock consolidation.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate was 2380 yuan / ton, up 3.48% from 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 5.78% year on year. On January 9, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 122.81, up 1.76 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 58.73% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market slightly increased. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal operation of their devices, and the supply was stable. The price of the manufacturers was mainly stable. In the near future, the supply of goods in the market was normal. In the near future, some manufacturers achieved better indicators, the factory price slightly increased, and the domestic price trend rose. In addition, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has slightly improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand. Affected by the coming of Spring Festival, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has a positive sales, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid fluctuated at a low level in China, with a weekend price of 1600 yuan / ton. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1500 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1580 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1750 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site delivery is general. The market price of ammonium nitrate remains low due to negative factors. The low price of nitric acid is a negative influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has a limited increase.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is relatively loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise is slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions, while the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. With the high rate of start-up of liquid ammonia units in Hubei Province, the price trend of liquid ammonia has declined slightly by 0.58%. In addition, in the near future, the maintenance of some manufacturers has been restarted, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises has increased, and the local liquid ammonia market may decline, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is mainly declining. The overall price of the upstream liquid ammonia market is lower, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate Market is limited.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, and the supply of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased, but the market price of raw materials has been slightly lower, and the price cost support for ammonium nitrate Market is limited. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the demand for ammonium nitrate may rise in the later period, and expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may maintain a high volatility.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic bromine market kept stable operation this week, with the average price of bromine kept at about 30444 yuan / ton in the week, down 12.39% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: affected by the low demand in the downstream market, the price of bromine in China is relatively weak according to previous years. The overall start-up level in the industry is low. Some enterprises have run out of inventory and the industry is in a weak situation of supply and demand. At present, the quotation of enterprises is between 30000-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the downstream flame retardant market has poor purchase and demand, general support for bromine price, and flat trading atmosphere in the industry; pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are on the low side, and the overall impact on bromine price is negative.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the overall supply and demand of domestic bromine chemical industry are weak, the overall market performance is relatively stable, and the bromine price is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, 2.78% higher than that of the same period last month and 14.45% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of cyclohexanone is stable this week. The main price in Shandong is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in spot exchange), which is stable compared with last week. The situation in the Middle East is suddenly tense, crude oil is rising, pure benzene market is rising, and cyclohexanone cost pressure is increasing. Although the caprolactam market is slightly up, the total demand for chemical fiber is general. In addition to the impact of heavy snow in the North last week, logistics and transportation are affected, and the demand for solvent is limited. At the beginning of the week, Bank of China in Jining stopped production of cyclohexanone and converted to cyclohexane production. However, there was abundant spot supply of cyclohexanone, and the industry was not confident in the future market, which led to poor sentiment and stable operation of the market.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene rose in shock. This week, the Middle East geopolitical factors led to a staged surge in crude oil prices, which led to an increase in the price of benzene inside and outside. Within the week, FOB South Korean pure benzene once rose to 751 US dollars / ton, and domestic East China market sales rose to 6020 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise of pure benzene, phenol ketone and caprolactam in the downstream rose slightly in the week. However, the main downstream styrene declined due to the difficulty of spot delivery and the expected increase of subsequent supply, which failed to form a good support for pure benzene. Therefore, the rebound basis of pure benzene is not solid. After the crude oil’s rise is digested and the rise is reversed, the center of gravity of pure benzene also shows a small decline.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose slightly this week. On January 3, the US air strike resulted in the death of senior Iranian officials, and the escalation of us Iran conflict led to the rise of crude oil prices, with the price of kinetic plate following the rise. The price of pure benzene rose to 6000 yuan / ton in East China market under the support of favorable external conditions. The loss of caprolactam was deepened when the price of raw materials increased, and the manufacturer actively supported the price to reduce the loss. In addition, due to the impact of snowfall in the north this week, the start-up of the caprolactam plant in the North was not high as a whole, and transportation was limited, resulting in the shortage of caprolactam spot supply. The market price of caprolactam increased with the improvement of cost and supply.

Adipic acid: in the end of the month, the attitude and enthusiasm of the domestic adipic acid market players have decreased, and the external situation at the beginning of last weekend and the rainy and snowy weather in many places also have a certain impact on the adipic acid market. At the beginning of the month, the main adipic acid plants were mostly free of pressure, some of them were still under construction, the trading hours were slightly reduced, the contract volume of middlemen was also reduced, the pressure of manufacturers was not low, and the market mentality was strong. With the change of news in the week, the offer moved up slowly, and the middle of the week was a short wait-and-see. The main listing of pure benzene is on the high side of 5950 yuan / ton, and adipic acid industry is generally concerned about cost pressure. However, the price of oil and bulk will be boosted briefly within the week based on the news from the inside and outside of the week, and then the price will go down. However, the settlement cycle is nearly half, and the cost will still move up to support the expectation of the industry.

3、 Future forecast

In general, although some cyclohexanone is temporarily stopped, there is abundant spot supply in the market, and the demand for chemical fiber is general. Near the end of the year, logistics and transportation are limited, and solvent users have entered the holiday stage in succession, and the impact of total market demand is limited. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the market for cyclohexanone will be stable before the festival.