According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the melamine market remained stable and slightly weak. Recently, the price of raw material urea has slightly increased, with some companies resuming production and increasing market supply. However, downstream inquiries have a moderate enthusiasm, mainly focusing on just in demand procurement. The market trading atmosphere is flat, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. Some holders have lowered prices to attract orders. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market is stable, but weak.

Upstream urea: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on September 20th was 2641.67, a decrease of 0.75% compared to September 1st (2661.67), which still provides support for the melamine market.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply and demand support is weak, and the atmosphere for new orders in the market is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be weak and stable, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic MIBK market has shown a broad upward trend. The tight spot supply situation is difficult to improve. Under the influence of multiple factory price increases, the market has continued to rise significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quoted 14433 yuan/ton on September 1 and 17367 yuan/ton on September 19, with a cumulative increase of 21% in September,

The MIBK market has risen, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China exceeding 17300 yuan/ton. The tight spot resource situation in the market is difficult to improve, and cargo holders are pushing up their offers again.

In terms of cost, the East China acetone market has been continuously rising, pushing it up to 7550 yuan/ton last week. On the 18th, the market eased and negotiations weakened. This was mainly due to the weakening of replenishment sentiment after a round of procurement in the early stage, and the profit-making space taken by intermediate traders, resulting in a significant daily decline of 250 yuan/ton in trading volume. The East China acetone market was negotiated at 7250 yuan/ton. For downstream MIBK, the sustained rise in acetone in the early stages still provides support.

From the perspective of the business community, the current industry operating rate is at 50%, with a slight increase in domestic supply but little impact. Currently, it is time to stock up before the National Day holiday, and the supply is relatively concentrated. Traders are pushing up their offers. Business Society predicts that there is still room for upward growth in the short-term MIBK market.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to rise in September. As of September 19th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 8859.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.71% compared to the price of 7220.00 yuan/ton on September 1st.

Rising Crude Oil Boosts Domestic Maleic Anhydride Market

The international crude oil market has continued to rise recently. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their plan to reduce crude oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, as the sustained supply gap caused by the production reduction is significant, which may lead to tight crude oil supply in the fourth quarter; According to a report released by the EIA on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a decrease of approximately 1.9 million barrels; The demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States remains strong, especially with a significant increase in diesel futures.

Continuous rise in the market for n-butane and hydrogenated benzene drives up the domestic maleic anhydride market

On the upstream side, the hydrogenation benzene market continues to follow the trend of pure benzene, with little change in supply and a slight increase in operating rates. As of the 19th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in East China is between 8800 to 8900 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for n-butane has continued to rise, with prices in Shandong ranging from 5600 to 5700 yuan/ton as of September 19th.

The rise of unsaturated resin market drives the domestic maleic anhydride market

Recently, the main raw material styrene in the downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride has continued to rise, boosting the resin market. Currently, the price of unsaturated resin is high, supporting the maleic anhydride market. As of the 19th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 8800 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 8800 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 9100 yuan/ton.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current prices of raw materials for maleic anhydride, n-butane and hydrogenated benzene, are high, and the prices of downstream unsaturated resin are high under cost pressure. At present, dealers are actively shipping, and some enterprises are cautious in their operations. Factories mainly execute early orders, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly consolidated at a high level in the short term.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of the 15th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 24333.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Friday’s price. This week, magnesium prices were initially suppressed and then increased. At the beginning of the week, market transactions slowed down and prices continued to decline. However, factory inventory pressure was not significant, coupled with high raw material costs, leading to a rebound in the middle and later stages of the week. By Friday, the mainstream factories in the Fugu region are offering a spot exchange rate of 24300-24500 yuan/ton, including tax.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, the current mentality of magnesium factories is still reluctant to sell at high prices, and some manufacturers have chosen not to offer prices temporarily. In the short term, the factory side quotation may remain firm. In terms of demand, downstream buyers are cautious and find it difficult to accept high priced magnesium ingots, while intermediaries actively inquire and stock up.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the quotation for the ferrosilicon market in Ningxia region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6970 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon market has rebounded, and the manufacturer’s operating rate is not low. The orchid charcoal market is relatively strong, with some enterprises experiencing price increases ranging from 60 to 100 yuan/ton. The orchid charcoal market is operating steadily with a strong trend, and the production cost pressure of orchid charcoal enterprises continues to increase. Coupled with the current low starting inventory in the orchid charcoal market, some enterprises have seen orchid charcoal prices rise by 20-50 yuan/ton, initiating the fifth round of price increases.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the main factors contributing to the sustained strength of magnesium prices are: firstly, low inventory levels among manufacturers and an increase in quotations due to tight spot prices; 2、 Silicon iron and blue carbon are relatively stable and strong, while magnesium prices are supported at the bottom; 3、 As the Double Festival approaches, it cannot be ruled out that the market activity of magnesium ingots has increased. Amidst many positive factors, it is expected that the short-term price of magnesium ingots will remain stable and tend to be strong

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has continued to rise. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.89% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3193.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 20.45%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the availability of fluorite in stock is very tight. As a result, the market price of fluorite continues to rise.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to increase to 10200-10600 yuan/ton. Some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal, and the sulfuric acid market price is at a high level. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and the rise in hydrofluoric acid price to some extent supports the rise of the fluorite market, The fluorite market has slightly increased.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000 to 28000 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased, To some extent, it is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future forecast: Although Mongolia’s imported fluorite mines have increased, the domestic supply of fluorite mines is difficult to improve. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the future. The refrigerant quota plan has recently stimulated the market, and the refrigerant market trend is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite to rise in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the price of DOP was 11566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% from the price of 11825 yuan/ton on September 7th. The prices of raw materials have fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 14th was 12200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared to the price of 12940 yuan/ton on September 7th. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operation and restarted, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. The price of raw material propylene has decreased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the price of 8662.50 yuan/ton on September 7th. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fluctuates and increases, leading to an increase in the price of raw materials for phthalic anhydride. The willingness to sell phthalic anhydride has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has increased. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and there is a significant resistance to high priced phthalic anhydride. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will remain stable.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, while the prices of phthalic anhydride have continued to rise weakly, resulting in a decrease in the DOP cost of plasticizer products; PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, with average enthusiasm for downstream PVC procurement and insufficient support for plasticizer demand. In the future, against the backdrop of weak supply and demand for plasticizers, there is insufficient demand support for cost reduction, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% compared to last Friday (September 8th).

The recent market situation of melamine has been mainly stable, with some companies experiencing slight price reductions. Recently, the price of raw material urea has been weak and stable, with cost support still remaining. The industry’s capacity utilization rate is below 60%, and the support for pending orders from enterprises is still acceptable. Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are mainly in demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream urea: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on September 12 was 2630.00, a decrease of 1.19% compared to September 1 (2661.67).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that downstream demand procurement is currently the main focus, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may stabilize and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has slightly increased recently (9.1-9.11). On September 11th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8530 yuan/ton, while on September 1st, the benchmark price was 8450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

Low inventory xylene market high operation

The supply of mixed xylene remains tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of September 7th, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 12000 tons; The inventory of xylene in South China is around 10000 tons. Inventory remains low.

International crude oil prices rise, supported by the cost of toluene

Since September, crude oil futures have risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was at $87.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settled at $90.64 per barrel for the 11 contract. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Downstream PX starts construction, 70% xylene has rigid support needed

The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, and the spot supply is relatively normal. Driven by the rise of crude oil, the external price trend of PX has increased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in Asia are 1081-1083 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1106-1108 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

The price of refined oil has risen, and the demand for high levels of xylene in refinery operations is supported

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased, while refinery inventory has remained low; In addition, supported by the upcoming Double Festival in the later stage, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. The operating rate of domestic main refineries remains at a high level, and the supply side is relatively loose, which to some extent suppresses gasoline prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to high and fluctuating gasoline market conditions. Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand.

Future Market Forecast: In the short term, international crude oil and naphtha costs will continue to support, and the tight supply of xylene will not decrease. However, downstream buying enthusiasm will weaken, and the market’s upward momentum will be weak. Overall, in the short term, mixed xylene prices will consolidate at a high level.

This week’s lead market (9.1-9.8) showed a “V” trend, with the average price in the domestic market at 16550 yuan/ton last weekend and 16605 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.33%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 9 consecutive weeks.

In terms of supply, the construction of primary lead refineries has remained at a high level recently, and the supply of recycled lead has also been relatively stable in the near future. The downstream market on the demand side has been in a seasonal peak season recently, with only automotive batteries showing outstanding performance in the downstream market. The demand for construction has been in the peak season market. However, the performance of the electric vehicle battery market is relatively ordinary, with the overall peak season not booming, and the construction is relatively low, resulting in average market demand. Overall, the lead ingot market has been relatively weak in recent times due to fundamental factors, mainly following macroeconomic fluctuations. The impact of capital games on the market far exceeds the supply and demand side. In the peak season, it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the recent macroeconomic and financial performance.

On September 10th, the base metal index stood at 1233 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 92.06% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 36th week of 2023 (9.4-9.8), there were a total of 18 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was one commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (6.41%), metallic praseodymium (4.69%), and praseodymium oxide (3.94%). There are four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-2.33%), silver (-1.70%), and copper (-1.56%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.59%.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9466 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9533 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.70% and a decrease of 8.92% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

PS (polystyrene) cost support.

The cost support is obvious, and PS (polystyrene) petrochemical manufacturers have adjusted their prices, causing the market focus to rise. Buying at high prices has led to resistance, resulting in a situation where there is a price without a market. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 9600 and 11000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10000 and 11100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PS cost support, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market price may mainly show a slight upward trend in the short term.