1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1826 yuan / ton on November 29 and 1896 yuan / ton on December 5. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 3.83% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium sulfate Market stopped falling and rebounded, and the price fluctuated upward. Coking grade ammonium sulfate increased slightly, and the high level of Hexian grade ammonium sulfate was strong. The goods are acceptable in the market and purchased on demand in the downstream. For coking grade ammonium sulfate this week, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1800-1850 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is 1750-1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is 1700-1750 yuan / ton. This week’s domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 2100-2150 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market remained stable this week without fluctuation. The prices of urea and monoammonium phosphate, the raw materials of compound fertilizer, continued to fall, and the market of potassium fertilizer remained unchanged for the time being. At present, the turnover of compound fertilizer market is limited, mainly on the sidelines, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that although the ammonium sulfate Market is not obviously good at present, there is no inventory pressure for the time being, the manufacturers have obvious willingness to support the price, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of downstream demand, and it is expected that ammonium sulfate will operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3266 yuan / ton on November 29 and 3183 yuan / ton on December 3. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 2.55% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on November 29 and 3600 yuan / ton on December 3. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.28% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate fell this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 49%, up from last week. On Monday, the ammonium market was still depressed, the market was poor, and there were few new orders. Although the price of raw materials has risen, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have little demand for monoammonium. Traders’ mentality is unstable, and the transaction focus of monoammonium phosphate continues to decline. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3050-3350 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated slightly this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 48%, up from last week. On Tuesday, the ammonium market was mainly on the sidelines, and the market was weak. The high price of raw materials has a certain support for diammonium phosphate. However, the market situation of winter storage is poor, the unit operates at low load, and most enterprises suspend quotation. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3450-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

This week, the raw phosphorus ore market continued to operate at a high end, and the on-site supply continued to be tight. Most of the supply was mainly contract customers. It was relatively difficult for downstream enterprises to purchase raw materials. Therefore, some downstream enterprises were reluctant to sell. With the mutual support of upstream and downstream, the overall market of phosphorus ore and its direct downstream was dominated by strong operation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that although the raw material market of Monoammonium is good, the market performance is insufficient and the demand side is weak. The price of diammonium is mainly stable, and the cost support is acceptable. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to operate steadily in the short term, while diammonium will continue to operate steadily and wait-and-see.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the price continued to rise steadily. On December 2, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 194600 yuan / ton, which was 1.35% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 192000 yuan / ton on November 28). On December 2, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 206000 yuan / ton, which was 1.88% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 202200 yuan / ton on November 28). As of December 2, the comprehensive market quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate is around 187000 ~ 198000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive market quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate is around 197000 ~ 220000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate is still rising this week, and the number of enterprises with rising price of lithium carbonate is also increasing. With the end of the year approaching, the trading volume of lithium carbonate market has increased and the market quotation has been rising. In addition, this year’s Spring Festival is earlier than last year, and downstream enterprises have begun to prepare goods for the Spring Festival in advance. While the demand is rising, the price is also rising. Under the condition of continuous favorable market trading, lithium carbonate inventory continued to be low.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide price remains stable, the domestic supply may increase in the near future, while there is no significant increase in downstream orders, the market is in a state of slight surplus, and the short-term price may be stable temporarily.

The price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. Recently, some iron lithium enterprises gradually began to sign new orders, and phosphoric acid gradually stabilized recently. However, the market of lithium salt in short supply reappeared and began to prepare goods gradually, which made the overall manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate rise, but the transmission took time and has not been reflected in the terminal.

The lithium carbonate analyst of business society believes that at present, the downstream market of lithium carbonate is actively prepared, the market demand is increased, and the trading volume is significantly increased. It is expected that there is still room for the price of lithium carbonate to rise in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (December 1): 16133.33 yuan / ton

On December 1, the melamine market was weak, down 6.20% from last Wednesday (November 23) and 19.47% from November 1. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is general, the inventory of some enterprises is under pressure, the domestic demand is still poor, the export market performance is general, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

In November 2021, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market first fell and then rose in a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15631.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15393.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.16%.

On November 29, the lead commodity index was 93.08, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down 30.54% from the highest point of 134.01 in the cycle (November 29, 2016), and up 24.72% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the lead price has continuously maintained weak operation in recent one month.

In the middle and early November, Lun lead and Shanghai lead maintained a shock downward trend as a whole, which was mainly affected by the continuous sharp rise of the US dollar index in fundamentals, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the prices of Lun lead and Shanghai lead were dragged down. The spot lead price was greatly affected by the futures market. The spot market basically followed the trend of Shanghai lead, and the lead price fluctuated downward in the first half of the month. Supply: the original lead manufacturers gradually resume production, but some manufacturers are still overhauling. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. The downstream has been maintaining on-demand procurement in November, and the social inventory is on the high side as a whole.

After entering the middle and late ten days, the futures market performed well, and the Shanghai lead price continued to rise. Although the range was limited, the overall trend was stable and upward. The spot market was boosted and followed the slow upward trend of futures prices. Near the end of the month, a large enterprise in Anhui suddenly reduced production, while the implementation of environmental protection policies in Hunan, the main production area, affected the local output. The expected output of lead ingots decreased in the future, which boosted market confidence. At the end of the month, the market entered a volatile upward trend. However, whenever the lead ingot Market is high, the wait-and-see mood in the market will become strong. At the end of the month, the market trading is cold and wait-and-see. On the whole, the impact of the current power restriction policy has been ignored, the resumption of production of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. Driven by the improvement of foreign orders, the demand of downstream storage enterprises has recovered well recently, but the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price.

At present, the demand of downstream storage enterprises for raw lead ingots is OK, and the overall market sentiment is good, but the overall inventory is still high. China continues to de inventory. It is expected that the lead ingot price will be consolidated at a high level in the future, and the upward space is limited.

Relevant data:

WBMs: the latest data report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday shows that there is a supply shortage of 269100 tons in the global lead market from January to September 2021 and 80400 tons in 2020. The total inventory at the end of September was 77200 tons higher than that in 2020. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to September 2021, the global refined lead output was 10.5419 million tons, an increase of 18.6% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 5.2948 million tons, an increase of 1.544 million tons over the same period in 2020, accounting for about 49% of the global total. From January to September 2021, the apparent demand of the United States increased by 113000 tons year-on-year. In September, the output of refined lead was 1168600 tons and the demand was 1209400 tons.

On November 29, 2021, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 50 tons (unit: tons) from 57300 tons

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend mainly fell in November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 29, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8340.00 yuan / ton, up or down – 3.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of raw propylene, the overall propylene market in November was dominated by bad market. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of gas in the downstream, lack of new orders, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials declined as a whole, and the spot price continued to decline under the constraints of cost and demand.

In the upstream, the price of direct raw material propylene fell, the power coal and crude oil were weak in November, and the PP cost side support collapsed. At present, PP supply remains stable, and the on-site maintenance production line is reduced. The impact of local environmental protection policies on the market is still, and the operating rate of the industry and its downstream is still average. Although the purchase follow-up of end users was not timely, the automobile and other industries just needed to be stable, raised a certain amount of demand, reduced the supply of low-cost goods in the field, and stabilized after the merchant reported the decline. At present, there is a bottoming force in PP spot price, and the quoted prices of enterprises and traders stopped falling and stabilized at the end of the month.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 29, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8583.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 4.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 5.33%. In November, the demand for PP fiber materials showed a trend of gradual improvement, and the consumption of main downstream non-woven fabrics and their end products gradually increased. Although the price decline of upstream propylene was bad for the PP market, the profits of non-woven fabric enterprises improved due to the decline of costs.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market was stable and weak in November. As of November 29, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9683.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the fourth quarter, during the period of high incidence of rebound of health events in countries in the northern hemisphere, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. The main reason for the decline of melt blown materials this month is the weakness of the cost side.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell in November, propylene and coal continued to weaken on the cost side, and the upstream support for PP weakened. Spot prices fell, the demand of end enterprises was gradually released, some downstream users just needed to be stable, and PP gradually stopped falling due to its bottom building effect. It is expected that the PP market may stabilize in the short term

Data monitoring shows that on the 26th, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was about 18000 yuan / ton. Recently, the market demand was weak, the transaction was general, and the manufacturer’s price fluctuated slightly, with a range of no more than 1%.

From the perspective of industry, the market trend of petrochemical raw materials has weakened recently, and the cost pressure of raw materials related to water treatment has decreased; Due to the influence of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, production is limited and production is stopped in many places, the commencement of basic chemicals is affected, the market price difference is large, limited by the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products is stable, and some are adjusted to a small extent. Among them, the market of raw material acrylonitrile has been maintained at about 15250 yuan / ton in the past three days, and the decline rate is about 200 yuan / ton so far this month.

Raw acrylic acid: the recent acrylic acid Market stopped falling and rose. As of the 25th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 16866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.20% from the previous trading day and down 11.69% from the 25th of last month. Driven by the rising price of raw propylene, the cost of acrylic acid is rising, and the plant unit is gradually entering the maintenance stage. It is expected that the short-term market of acrylic acid may be stable and upward.

As for the future, the current raw material price trend is weak and the demand is weak. The market quotation changes little, but subject to the environmental protection in winter and the dual control policy in some regions, the market generally predicts that the market price will rise after the manufacturer’s production is limited in the later stage. However, at present, the price is mainly stable and fluctuates slightly.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.15-11.19, the same below)

Market analysis this week

This week, magnesium city as a whole showed a trend of first strength and then stability. The supply and demand pattern of magnesium city changed. At the beginning of the week, it continued. Last week, the market turnover was active and the price was strong; In the middle of the week, the price of magnesium continued to rise, but some downstream businesses had exceeded their purchase expectations, held a wait-and-see situation, and the market transaction slowed down; At the end of the week, both upstream and downstream businesses suspended the receipt and release of orders, and the magnesium price was stable at a high level.

As of November 19, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 38000-38100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 38100-38200 yuan / ton.

The cost of magnesium ingot is greatly hit, and the cost of magnesium ingot is lack of support

In terms of thermal coal: according to the monitoring of the business society, the price of thermal coal is running weakly and stably. With the effect of the national “combination fist” policy of ensuring supply, the overall price has returned to a more reasonable range.

Ferrosilicon: there is no obvious fluctuation in the ferrosilicon spot market as a whole. The mainstream quotation of 72 ferrosilicon in the main production area of Ningxia is around 8500-9000 yuan / ton, the futures disk performance is weak, and ferrosilicon merchants are more cautious about the falling price.

Magnesium ingot inventory is low, and the transaction is beginning to show fatigue

Supply: the factory inventory continues to be low. According to traders, at present, the factory is basically in the order arrangement state, but many people in the industry are pessimistic about the long-term market, and the order arrangement is mainly short-term orders.

Demand: with the replenishment operation some time ago, the downstream procurement gradually entered a cooling off period this week, and some demand customers began to delay the procurement rhythm.

Future forecast

In the early stage, with the low price of power coal and ferrosilicon and the recovery of downstream procurement, coupled with the support of “collection and storage” in Yulin area, the market speculation atmosphere was strong, which strongly promoted the rebound of magnesium price. In the later stage, in view of the slowdown of downstream procurement, most customers accepted and objected at high prices. It can be seen that the power of magnesium ingot price rise is insufficient, but the lack of spot resources of magnesium plant also supports the price. Overall, business analysts believe that the magnesium price may be stable and strong in the short term.

Price rise and fall of major domestic electrolytic manganese markets from November 12 to November 19 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market. Prices on November 12. Prices on November 19. Weekly rise and fall

Yangtze River region., 43000., 43000., 0

Shanghai (barreled), 42500, 42500, 0

Shanghai (bagged), 41500, 41500, 0

This week (November 12 to November 19), 1# electrolytic manganese market price was temporarily stable and fluctuated. The Yangtze River market was 43000 yuan / ton last weekend and 43000 yuan / ton this weekend, flat. Although the weekly comparison price was flat, the electrolytic manganese price first rose and then fell during the week, increased slightly at the beginning of the week and fell back to last week’s price at the end of the week.

Manganese ore: although subject to cost constraints, miners are not willing to cut prices and take goods, the manganese ore market is weak this week under the condition that the silicon manganese alloy market continues to be weak, the overall demand has not been significantly improved and the price reduction phenomenon is obvious. The data on November 12 showed that the price of manganese ore in the port fell. The mainstream Australian block in Tianjin Port reported 44.5 yuan / ton degree, the semi carbonic acid in South Africa reported 35 yuan / ton degree, and the Gabon block reported 42 yuan / ton degree; The price of manganese ore in Qinzhou port also showed a downward trend. The mainstream Australian block reported 47.5 yuan / ton degree, the semi carbonic acid in South Africa reported 38.5 yuan / ton degree, and the Gabon block reported 44 yuan / ton degree.

The electrolytic manganese market entered a weak consolidation period at the end of October. Due to the influence of power production restriction factors in the early stage, the price of electrolytic manganese at home and abroad went up all the way. The price was weak consolidation at the end of October. The mainstream ex factory price of 1# electrolytic manganese this week was concentrated at 41000-42000 yuan / ton, down 1000-1500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price rose tentatively in the middle of the week, but the downstream is afraid of high and cautious in receiving goods. The market looks forward to the latest guidance on steel bidding this month. It is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will continue to maintain the consolidation trend in the short term.

Manganese and silicon: as of November 18, the weekly demand for silicon and manganese was 133114 tons, down 2.04% from last week. The weekly supply of silicon manganese was 191443 tons, an increase of 3.81% over the previous week. The operating rate continued to rise slightly this week, while the demand decreased and increased compared with last week. This week’s notice on the re production restriction of steel mills: the work plan for staggered peak production of iron and steel industry in Hebei Province in the heating season 2021-2022 was issued. The implementation object is iron and steel smelting enterprises in Hebei Province (including central enterprises and Tianjin enterprises), and the implementation time is from November 15, 2021 to March 15, 2022. The scope of implementation is Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai, Cangzhou and Xinji. Chengde, Zhangjiakou and Qinhuangdao shall be implemented with reference. Phase I: from November 15, 2021 to December 31, 2021, to ensure the completion of the target task of reducing crude steel output in this region. Phase II: from January 1, 2022 to March 15, 2022, with the goal of reducing the increased emission of air pollutants in the heating season, in principle, the proportion of staggered peak production of iron and steel enterprises in relevant cities shall not be less than 30% of the crude steel output in the same period of the previous year. As soon as this news came out, the confidence of the industry was obviously hit, and the overall pessimism increased. News of steel plant shutdown and production reduction continued, and the demand decreased significantly. Recently, some silicon manganese enterprises have also heard the news of shutdown and production restriction, but so far, it does not seem to have a significant impact.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 12300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 333.33 yuan / ton, or 2.71%, up 46.90% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly this week. On November 21, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.44% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 164.27% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is strengthened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of isooctanol this weekend was about 12600 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12600 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, an increase of 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7897.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.83 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.75%, up 9.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased from 11962.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12137.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.46%, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement increased.

Increased demand and bullish outlook

In late November, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may rise slightly. Upstream propylene fell slightly and cost support weakened, but downstream DOP market rose slightly, downstream market rose and demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly in late November.