According to data released by Iranian Customs on Wednesday, three months later, China overtook Iraq to become the first destination country for Iranian non-oil exports and consolidated its export status to Iran, the Iranian Financial Tribune reported on January 30. In the first ten months of the Iraqi calendar (March 21, 2018 – January 20, 2019), Iran’s non-oil exports to China amounted to $7.52 billion, an increase of 5.24% over the same period last year, accounting for 20.7% of Iran’s non-oil exports. Iraq followed, with Iran exporting $7.51 billion in non-oil commodities to Iraq in the first 10 months of the Iraqi calendar. In the first ten months of the Iraqi calendar, Iran’s top five import countries were China ($8.9 billion), the United Arab Emirates ($5.45 billion), Turkey ($2.03 billion), Germany ($2.01 billion) and India ($1.92 billion).

On February 12, the fluorite commodity index was 123.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 3.12% lower than the cyclical peak of 127.49 points (2019-01-03), and 150.99% higher than the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, up to the 13th day, the average domestic fluorite price is 3510 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of strict environmental protection inspection, some domestic fluorite plants have recently stopped, mines and flotation plants have stopped and repaired, and the supply of fluorite in the field has been relatively reduced, but the recent downstream market is not good, and the price of fluorite market has slightly declined. In addition to the low temperature, the low start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. In the southern fluorite market, the start-up of fluorite flotation units has also been reduced, and the supply of fluorite in the field is tight, but the downstream terminal receipt is not active, resulting in a temporary stabilization of market prices. As of the 13th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3600 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3400-3700 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3600 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3200-3600 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite remained stable.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite declined. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12 291.67 yuan/ton as of the 13th day, while the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined. In addition, the upstream refrigerant products have more maintenance devices, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly declined. Recent market of refrigerant downstream terminal market is cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 70%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened. Generally speaking, there are many downstream negative factors, but because of the poor start-up of fluorite market devices, fluorite prices remain at a high level. However, since most enterprises have been on holiday in recent years, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market prices may remain stable temporarily.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc price shocks remained stable in January. As of January 31, the price of zinc ingot was 22250.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan/ton, or 0.41 percent, from 22160.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In January, the zinc market struggled and zinc price shocks adjusted.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

In January, the price of zinc ingot in LME market rose sharply. As of January 31, the closing price of zinc in London LME market was 2724 US dollars/ton, which was 265 US dollars/ton higher than the opening price of zinc at the beginning of the month. The price of zinc in London LME market rose sharply, and the stock of zinc in futures fell sharply. As of January 31, the stock of zinc in London LME market was 113425 tons, which was 129 000 tons higher than that in the beginning of the month. Decreased inventories are good for the zinc market.

On January 31, the closing price of zinc futures in Shanghai futures market was 22,320 yuan/ton, which was 21,205 yuan/ton compared with the opening price at the beginning of the month. The price fluctuation of zinc futures rose by 1115 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of zinc futures rose in January, which had a positive impact on the spot zinc market. In January, the zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market increased substantially. As of January 31, the zinc futures inventory was 3339 tons, 881 tons higher than that in the initial month. Increase in the zinc market has a negative effect.

data statistics

China’s output of refined zinc (electrolytic zinc) in December 2018 was 2% to 509,000 tons lower than last month, down 1.7% from the same period last month, and the total output in 2018 was 5681,000 tons, down 3.2% from the same period last month, according to data released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The production of zinc ingot in China is decreasing, which is good for the market of zinc.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business associations, believes that the global macroeconomic environment for the new year is not optimistic as the new year approaches. The global macroeconomic environment has warmed up, but the overall market performance is general. The zinc futures market has risen slightly, which is good for the spot zinc, but the overall zinc market is stable. On the demand side, the domestic zinc market is facing the stock of spring festival, which is good for the spot market of zinc. On the supply side, the supply of domestic zinc city will decrease in December 2018, which is good for zinc city. With the coming of spring festival, the quotation enterprises in the spot market are limited, the supply of zinc ingots in the market is limited, and the supply of zinc ingots in the market is better. Domestic zinc market has good stimulation in both supply and demand. In addition to the good stimulation of international zinc market, domestic zinc market has a small rise peak in the short term. However, in the long run, the global economic rebound in 2019 is not optimistic. The macro-economy has limited positive effect on zinc market, the rebound of zinc market is insufficient, and the space for zinc price to rise is limited. There is still room for zinc price to rise in February, but the trend of increase or maintain a low level. Bit, zinc ingot price or fluctuation adjustment between 2000 and 23500.

On Jan. 28, the closing price of methanol in Europe and the United States fell, with methanol FOB in the United States Gulf falling by 95.75-96.25 cents/gallon and 25 cents/gallon, while methanol FOB in Rotterdam, Europe, fell by 265.5-266.5 euros/ton and 3 euros/ton.

Santiago, Jan. 27, Ivan Arriagada, president of Antofagasta, a Chilean copper miner, said Sunday it was evaluating a new concentrator at Centinela, costing about $3 billion.

Antofagasta’s copper production grew by 3% to 725,300 tons last year, allowing the company to weigh potential expansion and upgrading projects, it said.

Arriagada said, “The best option is to build a new concentrator in Centinela, and the project is in the feasibility stage.” It adds that the project costs between $2.7 billion and $3 billion.

Antofagasta had expected copper production to rise to 750,000-790,000 tons this year.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic TDI market was slightly sorted out this week. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week was 14333.33 yuan/ton, and that of enterprises at the weekend was 14166.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 1.16%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic TDI market was tidied up slightly. Shandong Dongda-Norway Polyurethane Co., Ltd. reported 14000 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang Bonded Zone Pan-Asian International Trade Co., Ltd. reported 14500 yuan/ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported 14000 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: The Spring Festival is approaching, the domestic TDI market is shaking, inquiries and purchases are weak, most of them just need to be ready, and terminal factories have holidays one after another. Demand lacks substantial support. Negative inventory operation of supply keeps delivery as the main factor. Individual low prices are heard, downstream is leaving the market one after another, and purchases are light.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the current TDI market is mainly stable, downstream wait-and-see, negative willingness to receive goods, a small number of purchases, bad news dominated, the market is difficult to say good, the short-term market will continue to bottom.

Domestic carbon black sales are light, the quotation is down. At present, domestic N220 wet carbon black factory quoted 6850 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the downstream tire factories have reduced their orders due to inventory pressure. Affected by this, the overall start-up rate of the carbon black industry has continued to decline. Carbon black analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the current carbon black market is not significantly positive, and the market is expected to stabilize in the future.

Price Trend
The domestic butadiene market has been declining recently. As of January 22, the price of butadiene was 10 367 yuan/ton, up 12.77% from the same period last year, according to the monitoring of business associations.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, butadiene pricing and sales of northern manufacturers, part of the downstream pre-holiday stock, manufacturers shipment situation is better, market operators offer limited. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the butadiene market in Shandong, and the shipment situation of the northern manufacturers is better, which supports the mindset of the market operators, but the market offer is scarce. Eastern China butadiene market information is limited, the market atmosphere is quiet, downstream sporadic just need inquiries. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1145-1153 per ton; CFR China average offer $1195-1203 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene Butadiene Rubber: Although natural rubber futures are strong, the market of Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) shows weakness due to the lower price and weak demand performance of the supplier. The quotations of the suppliers are declining, and a small amount of transactions are mostly just needed. Cis-butadiene rubber: Natural rubber is strong, but due to weak demand and lower prices of cis-butadiene rubber due to suppliers, the offer of manufacturers has declined, the transaction is flat, a small amount of trading is mostly just needed. SBS: Oil glue in domestic SBS market is weakening partially, and dry glue road is running smoothly.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm; the supply side of butadiene is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business Association butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will maintain a consolidation trend, focusing on market turnover.

On January 21, the closing price of methanol in Asia rose, with China concentrating $279-281 per ton on methanol CFR and $1 per ton on methanol CFR in Southeast Asia, $300-302 per ton on methanol CFR, rising by $1 per ton.

On January 21, the US Gulf acetone market closed at a stable price of US$738-762 per ton, FOB US Gulf.