According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has recently dropped. On April 9, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1400.00 yuan / ton, and on April 12, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1333.33 yuan / ton, down 4.76%. The current price is up 1.27% month on month, and the current price is up 50.94% year on year.

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has dropped. As of April 12, the mainstream market price in Central China is about 1370yuan / ton, the mainstream market price in North China is 1455 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price in East China is down 23 yuan / ton to 1385 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant has been restarted. Recently, the atmosphere of formaldehyde market is cold, the lower reaches are more resistant to the high price of formaldehyde in the early stage, the attitude of receiving goods is not positive, and the formaldehyde market is on a downward trend.

Upstream methanol situation: the methanol market is mainly stable, supported by futures, the price is strong, the downstream just needs replenishment after the festival, and the domestic methanol market fluctuates little. Port to inventory low-cost goods still impact the market, coupled with the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, lack of follow-up firm offer, the price is unable to rise, maintain stability. The overall trading atmosphere of methanol is general, the traders are cautious, the downstream part is on the lookout, and the support for formaldehyde is limited.

Under the background of a new round of 20 day environmental protection inspection in China which started on April 8, the downstream plate factories started to tighten up, the demand for formaldehyde decreased, the formaldehyde manufacturers took the initiative to lower the quotation in order to ship, the trading atmosphere of formaldehyde market was general, the downstream receiving mood was negative, and the formaldehyde industry continued to decline.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market is stable, the downstream plate factory demand is not good, the purchasing attitude is negative, so the formaldehyde analyst of business society chemical branch expects that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall below.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS common material was 10250 yuan / ton on April 5 at the beginning of this week, and 10600 yuan / ton on April 9 at the end of this week, up 40.40% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the EPS market rose first and then declined, and the overall trend was slightly higher. Styrene rebounded strongly after the Qingming Festival. As of April 8, Jiangsu styrene spot was about 8850 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton or 2.21% compared with the closing price of 9050 yuan / ton on April 1. At the beginning of the week, the strong upward trend of styrene led some terminal merchants to replenish goods in an appropriate amount. However, toluidine was near the cost line. In the middle of the week, styrene began to callback continuously to depress the market atmosphere. In addition, terminal demand was still recovering slowly. Some EPS factories were under pressure in shipment, and the downstream buyers were not willing to buy. The overall turnover was significantly weakened.

On the supply side, some of the plants have been shut down for a short time, and the output is expected to decrease slightly next week. On the demand side, the demand for plate in North China and Northeast China has improved, but the recovery of packaging market in East China and South China is relatively slow, and the market demand is expected to increase slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the demand for packaging in East China and South China is weak, while the demand for graphite and B1 fuel in North China is better, especially in xiong’an and Hebei. The EPS market is expected to be weak next week.

On April 1, the oil policy discussed at the ministerial meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, and the international oil price rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $61.45/barrel, up $2.29 or 3.9%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 64.86 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 2.12 U.S. dollars or 3.4%. WTI rose nearly 4%. OPEC + meeting finally decided to gradually increase production in the next three months. Although it broke the expectation of no production increase, the production increase scale was small, and Saudi Arabia’s 1 million barrels additional production reduction was also a gradual exit. In addition, it is generally expected that the rapid recovery of the US economy and the epidemic situation in Europe will only have a temporary impact, and the oil price will rebound sharply.

OPEC + agreed to gradually increase oil production in the three months starting from May. OPEC + stated that the meeting approved the adjustment of production level in May, June and July 2021. OPEC + will continue to hold monthly OPEC + ministerial meeting to assess the market environment and decide the adjustment of production level in the next few months. Each adjustment will not exceed 500000 B / d.

According to the production quota of each country published on the official website of OPEC, OPEC will increase oil production by 350000 B / D, 350000 B / D and 441000 B / D in May, June and July respectively. Moreover, Saudi Arabia will phase out the 1 million B / D voluntary production reduction since January, reduce by 250000 B / D in May, 350000 B / D in June and 400000 B / D in July.

As far as the results of the OPEC + meeting are concerned, it is beyond the previous expectation to maintain the scale of production reduction, but why did the oil price rise sharply instead?

Specifically, first of all, the OPEC + production control policy is still cautious. First, the policy will be more flexible. OPEC + will evaluate the market every month and make a new decision to adjust the output, so as to more effectively prevent the market supply and demand risks. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal of 1 million B / D of additional production reduction is also gradual, which will reduce 250000, 350000 and 400000 B / D respectively from May to July, giving the market a certain buffer time.

The market is still optimistic about the future demand of the oil market. Crude oil inventory may gradually enter the process of decontamination in the second quarter. The demand data of the United States is very stable. The Biden government has previously launched a 1.9 trillion stimulus plan and is currently brewing 2.3 trillion infrastructure stimulus measures. With the continuous promotion of vaccination in the United States and the control of the epidemic situation, the growth of oil demand in the United States may usher in a new era Explosive growth. China’s economy has returned to normal at an earlier time. At present, the main obstacle to economic recovery is Europe. However, the market expects that the European blockade is only temporary. With the acceleration of vaccination, the European economy will also enter the recovery track. Optimistic expectation is the main driver of the rise in oil prices.

Business News crude oil analysts believe that the recent oil prices are still affected by the European epidemic, and there are many obstacles to break through. In the medium and long term, as the European epidemic eases, oil prices still have the power to rise. But in the long run, the main uncertain factor of the oil market is the increase in shale oil production in the United States. At present, it is recorded that American energy companies have increased oil and gas drilling for the third consecutive week. The number of active oil drilling rigs has increased to the largest since January 2020. The oil price is still in the comfortable range of shale oil cost and profit. More and more energy companies have plans to increase expenditure in 2021, while the oil price is still in the stable range This followed cuts in drilling and completion spending over the past two years. Overall, the oil market will still seek to rebalance supply and demand in the future under the game of OPEC + production control and U.S. production increase. Oil prices may continue to rise, but we should be cautious.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 9766 yuan / ton on March 29 at the beginning of this week, and 9766 yuan / ton on April 2 at the end of this week, which was stable% and increased by 26.84% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PS market was temporarily stable, raw material styrene rose, coupled with low volume trading, offer has a certain rise. Buying high mood cautious, small and medium-sized downstream to pull up after the decline in acceptance of the source of goods, contract volume. In the East China market, the benzene penetration revenue was 9900-13300 yuan / ton, with the low end up 300 yuan / ton and the high end up 200 yuan / ton.

In terms of cost, the strong rise of raw material styrene has driven the cost center to move up and the cost support is strong. On the supply and demand side, the PS inventory decreased significantly and the market supply pressure decreased, but the acceptance of small and medium-sized downstream to the higher supply decreased, or inhibited further upward space. It is estimated that benzene penetration in East China market will be 10000-13500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

PS market shipment situation has improved, business light warehouse based, coupled with the cost performance is fair, some or a small rise, short-term PS market or narrow strong.

The domestic epoxy resin market continued to rise in March. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of East China liquid resin in early March was 31500 yuan / ton, and rose to 34000 yuan / T at the end of the month. The current liquid resin price has reached the peak in nearly three years. In the factory, the factory also rose in March, and the factory orders are full. Among them, Yangnong Jinhu offer reached 34600 yuan / T, Nantong Xingchen offer reached 33500 yuan / T, and Baling Petrochemical increased 1000 yuan / T to 34000 yuan / ton again at the end of the month. Solid resin around Huangshan was also greatly improved, and the offer entered into the “three” state. The offer around Huangshan was 28000-29500 yuan / ton, which increased greatly.

Epoxy resin has been crazy upward. On the one hand, the downstream market orders are constantly, and the factory delivery is under no pressure. On the other hand, under the stimulation of mutual benefit, the upstream raw material bisphenol A has reached “sky price”, and the cost support is strong, and the other important raw material epichlorohydrin is also catching up, further stimulating the epoxy resin to continue to catch up.

Up to now, with the increase of export orders, the overall low level of epoxy social inventory, the price has been increased every day. Many downstream in the early stage are short-term bearish. With the completion of inventory consumption, they have to accept high prices. It is heard that orders of a large enterprise have been completed in April, and downstream procurement is to be arranged to collect goods. According to statistics, half of the enterprises order to the late April, short-term liquid resin supply is tight It is difficult to alleviate the situation.

In terms of cost, the bisphenol a market, one of the raw materials, has gradually intensified the contradiction between supply and demand, and the downstream epoxy resin industry has been greatly up. In March, the market of BPA rose 8.75%. In the early months, it made a short-term correction under the rapid rise in the early period. At that time, in the high market, the downstream had obvious conflict with high prices, and there was continuous profit plate shipping, and the market entered a short-term small reduction The state of the system. After about a week, the contradiction between supply and demand of BPA intensified. Although BPA was high, it entered the price rising state again under the pressure of market supply. Then, with the end of the month approaching, the contract volume was completed, the market supply tension was difficult to alleviate, and the carrier was positive in mentality, and the price could not be pushed up again. According to the monitoring of business agency, bisphenol a rose from 24366 yuan / ton to 26500 yuan / ton at the end of the month from the beginning of the month. The business agency expects that BPA will continue to be high in April, and the BPA plant is currently at a high level. However, the next overhaul will begin in the middle of April. The overhaul period is one month. Sinopec Mitsui also has a short-term overhaul plan in April. At present, the imported goods source is high. Under the condition that the supply side tension is difficult to alleviate, the downstream liquid resin will continue to be well supported, and the dual phenol a plant will be under the condition of difficult relief of supply side tension Phenol A is still high in short term.

The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, also showed a positive upward trend. In March, upstream propylene was supported, and the upstream upward power was insufficient at the beginning of the month. In the later period, under the influence of the high level of bisphenol A, the market center of gravity increased. According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of business agency, the cost side of propylene epoxypropane is generally supported in the near future, the glycerine method cost support is relatively strong, the firm has strong willingness to store a strong price, coupled with the increase of export orders, which will boost the market mentality, and the low price supply in the site is reduced. The downstream small orders need to be replenished first. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be on the rise, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance .

In terms of the unit, the liquid epoxy resin plant is in normal operation, with the overall operating rate at a high level. Most of the plants have delivered the orders in the early stage. Some of the products in some factories can be supplied in the spot market. In March, the overall commencement rate is 80%, and the delivery order in March has increased significantly, so the supply tension is difficult to alleviate.

From the perspective of business agencies, the shortage of epoxy resin market is difficult to alleviate in a short time. Before, due to the demand of wind power industry, the downstream electronic appliances, coatings and materials have been improved. The demand is still high. The business agency expects the short-term epoxy resin market to continue to rise, but the high cost transfer also needs time digestion, and the downstream order situation will continue to be concerned.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 29, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4733.33 yuan / ton. The market of silica was mainly stable, the downstream just needed to purchase, the traders were active in shipping, the negotiation atmosphere was flat, and the mainstream price range was 4000-5000 yuan / ton.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable overall trend with stable price. The main contract orders are the main ones, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is flat. The number of new orders is limited. Most of the new orders are mainly discussed. The merchants have a stable mentality and general negotiation atmosphere. The merchants are cautious in taking the goods and slow in shipping. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, the shipping is normal, and the inventory is general.

Chemical industry index: on March 28, the chemical industry index was 1012 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.53% from 1049 points (2021-03-10), the highest point in the cycle, and up 69.23% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Hydrochloric acid index: on March 28, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.63, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 47.37% compared with the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-12), and increased by 192.71% compared with the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Business community silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market runs smoothly, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

From March 22 to March 26, 2021, the crude benzene market price decreased. The domestic ex factory price was 4695 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4271 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 9.03%.

In March 2021, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was lowered three times. At present, it has implemented 6350 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical has implemented 6150 yuan / ton. This week, it has been lowered twice in a row, with a total reduction of 300 yuan / ton.

This week, the bidding price of crude benzene dropped sharply. The bidding price in Shandong fell to 4150 yuan / ton, 530 yuan / ton lower than last week. The operation rate of downstream hydrobenzene is about 60%, which is lower than that of last week. The demand for crude benzene has decreased to a certain extent. Under the rhythm of slowing demand, it is expected that the bidding price of crude benzene will decrease this week.

In the future, the business community believes that although the overall start-up of hydrogenated benzene plants has declined due to various factors, most of the plants have gradually returned to normal, and the price difference between hydrogenated benzene and crude benzene is large, the profits of hydrogenated benzene enterprises have improved to a certain extent, and the operating rate is still expected to gradually rise in the future. The price of crude benzene and crude benzene fluctuated in the near future, but the price of crude benzene and crude benzene fluctuated in the future.

Magnesium market trend

On March 26, 2021, the price range of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas in China was 15250-15600 yuan / ton, mainly through negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 15250-15400 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15400-15500 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15500-15600 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15300-15400 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of the business association, the quotation of the main production areas is about 15400 yuan / ton at present, and the quotation is weak and stable on the 26th.

The recent failure of magnesium ingot Market to continue the previous strong market is mainly based on the following factors:

1. overseas affected by COVID-19, the demand for magnesium ingot weakened and the export of magnesium ingot decreased.

2. The domestic demand for magnesium ingots is relatively strong, and the downstream operation rate is relatively high, but the inventory of downstream magnesium alloy plants and magnesium powder plants is relatively sufficient;

3. After the price rises in the early stage, the market mainly digests the increase in recent years. At present, the purchase volume in the market is reduced, and the purchase on demand is the main, and the overall trading is not prosperous;

4. The mainstream manufacturers have the periodical operation demand of withdrawing funds.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market price fell slightly in the past week. As of March 25, the average ex factory price of the domestic spandex market was 67600 yuan / ton, down 1.46% from the previous week and up 113.92% year on year. The start-up of the industry was maintained at around 90%. The supply of manufacturers was basically stable except that some of them were tight. The downstream customers bought on demand. The overall market outlook was strong.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang: 82000-85000 73000-75000 65000-68000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 65000-68000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 65000-68000

Jiangsu Province: 82000-85000 73000-75000 65000-67000

In recent years, PTMEG in raw material market has been in consolidation operation, and BDO in cost side has a limited decline range, which is still at a high level as a whole. In terms of price, 1800 molecular weight is still available, and the mainstream factory offers around 40000 yuan / ton, and 35000-42000 yuan / ton is referred for actual negotiation. In April, the number of unit maintenance increased, including 135000 tons in Jiaxing Xiaoxing, 60000 tons in Hangzhou Sanlong and 50000 tons in Xinjiang Meike. At present, the 60000 ton unit in Panjin Changchun has low operating load, and the rest of the units are in stable operation, with 80% of the whole industry in operation. The pure MDI market is temporarily stable, and the market negotiation is between 24500-25500 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer and self delivery in barrels. In March, the listing price of pure MDI barrels of Wanhua chemical was RMB 28000 / ton, with a month on month increase of RMB 4000 / ton. In February 2021, the settlement price was 22500 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 900 yuan / ton.

Recently, all textile factories have resumed normal production, and the output has increased significantly. However, the end customers are not in a high mood to take the goods. 60% of the round machine industry started, and 70-75% of the warp knitting industry started, so we should wait and see. The number of fabrics in the market has decreased significantly compared with that in the past few years, especially the grey cloth produced with high price raw materials. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the sales volume is shrinking. At present, the operating rate in Shengze is about 80%. Because the market has slowed down, the overall grey cloth inventory is now stable at about 38 days.

Business analysts believe that the cost support is not strong, the terminal market is not high mood to take goods, enterprises mainly to return funds to inventory, trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the price of spandex is stable and weak.

Since the middle of March, the dimethyl ether Market has been falling one after another, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak. On March 14, the average price of DME was 0.31340 yuan / ton, down from March 14 in Henan. As of March 23, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

Region specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% March 223250 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% March 223200 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% March 223050-3110 yuan / ton

According to the trend chart of dimethyl ether, it is obvious that the overall trend of dimethyl ether Market is weak from the middle of the year, and the price has been reduced one after another. First of all, in terms of cost, the upstream methanol market began to decline from March 12, with a relatively obvious range. As of March 22, the methanol market had declined by 5.37%, and the current market had not improved significantly. The weakening cost has brought a certain blow to the dimethyl ether Market. The second is the liquefied gas market of related products. In late March, the civil gas market was also weak. It was not until the 22nd that the market improved, but the upward range was relatively limited. At present, the price difference between gas and ether was maintained at about 500-600 yuan / ton, which brought very Limited benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. At present, the market supply of dimethyl ether has weakened, and Jiujiang xinlianxin dimethyl ether plant has started, but Shengxin, Yongmei and other manufacturers’ plants have not been restarted. The lower reaches are cautious, not active in entering the market, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The pressure of delivery is great, but the inventory is basically controllable.

Other impacts: on March 15, the Beijing News published an investigation report “adulterated liquefied gas: many local gas stations make profits by mixing a large amount of dimethyl ether, which experts say is easy to cause accidents”, exposing the phenomenon of selling liquefied gas mixed with dimethyl ether in individual LPG stations in Henan and Anhui. On the 18th, the market supervision bureau of Henan Province and the market supervision bureau of Anhui Province respectively responded to the adulteration of LPG.

In response, the Henan provincial market supervision bureau said that it had sent relevant department staff to Shangqiu to participate in the field investigation, and conducted a thorough investigation on the causes of the confusion of LPG adulteration. In addition, special actions will be carried out throughout Henan Province to crack down on illegal activities such as adulteration of liquefied gas in combination with the investigation.

Anhui Provincial Bureau of market supervision responded that it has urged Suzhou Municipal Bureau of market supervision to intensify its work and conduct rapid investigation and disposal. Next, we will focus on LPG, bottled LPG pressure regulator and hose for gas appliance connection, and take product quality supervision and random inspection and law enforcement inspection in circulation field as the main content to organize and carry out a three-month investigation of product quality and safety risks.

On the whole, the continuous decline of methanol cost has brought bad news to the market, and the civil aspect of LPG is also weak. Although there is a small rise in a narrow range, the good news to the market is limited. Downstream mentality cautious, market enthusiasm is not high, the market atmosphere is weak. At present, the manufacturers are under great pressure to ship, and the inventory is temporarily controllable. In terms of demand, terminal demand is expected to weaken, and dimethyl ether Market is expected to be easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future.