1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the gasoline price has been running steadily this week, while the diesel price has declined slightly. The domestic gasoline price is 4540 yuan / ton, higher than last week’s gasoline price 0.07% Domestic diesel price is 4935 yuan / ton, down from last week’s diesel price 2.15% 。

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures bottomed out this week, with international oil price lower than $40 / barrel. At 24:00 on the 14th, the price of refined oil market remained unchanged. The overall price of refined oil market remained stable this week, and the price of diesel oil fell slightly.

Industry chain: this week, the oil price is generally in a volatile market, with great volatility. OPEC’s production reduction countries have frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia has also announced an additional 1 million barrels / day of production reduction in June. However, the weak demand side of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high.

Market: the international oil price is still below $40 / barrel. In the near future, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil is weak, and all manufacturers are selling at a high price. At present, the international oil price is at a low level, the refineries are supported by profits, the operating rate of domestic refineries is at a high level, and the supply of refined oil is increasing. At present, most of the diesel end users have resumed normal operation, the consumption of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable, and there is limited space to improve the demand end. However, gasoline consumption slightly increased due to the May Day holiday, but the demand consumption was still less than the supply increase. After entering the closed season in South China, there are some restrictions on the demand of diesel, and the performance of diesel market is weaker than that of gasoline.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the international crude oil inventory is high, the crude oil market price is under pressure in a short period of time, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment will continue to be below the floor price, and it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will be weak and stable.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4333 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at the beginning of the week, Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory price of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that of last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The quotation of POM manufacturers is stable.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, domestic methanol market this week rose in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week is 1680 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the week is 1727 yuan / ton, with weekly increase 2.83% , the price is higher than that of the same period last month 0.11% The price is lower than that of the same period last year 23.22% 。

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of POM in business association, due to the influence of raw material methanol, POM may be operated in a strong way.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week is 11000 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week is 11000 yuan / ton, which is stable.

Products: at present, the price of domestic activated carbon is temporarily stable, and the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is lack of favorable conditions to support, and the goods are mostly ordered.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: the actual transaction of activated carbon market is still not ideal, the trading continues to be stalemate, and the delivery pace is relatively slow.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the recent market of lithium carbonate is dominated by stable operation, and the quotations of some enterprises are slightly reduced. At present, the overall supply of lithium salt is relatively sufficient, the demand side performance is still poor, and the market trading atmosphere is general. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 8 was 41800 yuan / ton, down 0.24% compared with April 30. On May 8, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46200 yuan / ton, down 1.07% compared with April 30. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 39000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 45000-48000 yuan / ton.

On May 8, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 106.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 73.71% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.08% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 8, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are crude benzene (14.59%), phenol (4.93%) and aniline (4.35%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are styrene (- 1.22%), adipic acid (- 1.21%) and light soda ash (- 1.21%). The average price of this day is 0.57%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, at present, the market demand is not strong, and the downstream market is mainly just in need of purchase, and the transaction is relatively cold. It is expected that the market situation of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province rose sharply during the May 1st period. At the beginning of this week, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2000 yuan / ton. At the end of this week, the average price of dichloromethane was about 2200 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 10% in the week.

Market analysis:

Products: during the May 1st period, due to the high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials and the negative impact of the maintenance of some enterprises in East China of Shandong Province, the price of dichloromethane rose sharply, the enterprise’s inventory pressure was not great, the downstream purchase and stock up situation was acceptable, and the market mentality after the festival was poor, mainly to maintain stability. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2200-2250 yuan / ton, in South China about 3200 yuan / ton, and in East China about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the increase of downstream replenishment and freight, the domestic methanol market price has recovered, at present, it is about 1727 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is high and volatile, and the market supply is well supported. At present, the quotation in North China is about 300-600 yuan / ton, and in East China is 700-850 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continued to decline, the market trading was cold, and there was no obvious sign of improvement. At present, the price hovered around 15000 yuan / ton; the purchase of solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry was weak, and the price support for chloroform was insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the operation rate of dichloromethane market is low at present, which is about 40-50% as a whole. The inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, but the demand of downstream market is not good, and the enterprises are on the edge of profit and loss. It is expected that the operation will be stable in a short time.

On May 6, the fluorite commodity index was 90.64, down 6.44 points from yesterday, 28.90% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and 84.19% higher than 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite continues to decline. As of 7 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively high, the mine and flotation plant in the site are gradually resumed, the supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is declining in recent years. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the site is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market is declining. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in a slight decline in market price. As of July 7, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2600 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2400-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite continued to decline.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 7th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9130 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant was generally, the demand for fluorite was normal, the supply of goods in the site was sufficient, and the price of fluorite continued to decline. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry has been in a downturn, and the trend of the downstream refrigerant market is poor. The demand for the refrigerant has been declining. The special events abroad are serious. The export of the refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and it is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand is not as expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of market price or not is obvious. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is weak, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is falling. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to decline slightly in the short term.

Commodity index: on April 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% C from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in April 2020, the production of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises had high inventory, and the overall quotation of this month showed a small fluctuation downward trend. This month’s main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860-900 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1200-1250 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1600-2000 yuan / ton in solid content, 28% yuan in price, 30% yuan in price. About 0 yuan / ton, the quotation at the end of the month is about 50-100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, down by 4.44%.

Upstream: according to the data of business agency, in April, the mainstream factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a trend of fluctuation, with 1 daily report of 253.33 yuan / ton, 10 days up to 270 yuan / ton, until 22 days after the quotation of 280 yuan / ton, it turned down to 29 daily reports of 196.67 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal. Downstream: the current water treatment market demand is still low, and enterprises generally reflect that this year’s goods are hard to sell, engineering negotiation is difficult, and the cycle is long.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost returned to normal. In April, the overall production was normal. Due to the difficulty of shipment, some enterprises still had high inventory, which affected their production.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current market is generally weak due to the poor demand and high inventory. The high-speed recovery of charges will start on May 6, and the transportation cost will be increased. Affected by the cost, polyaluminium chloride may be slightly increased in the future market to hedge the risk of market decline caused by weak demand, and it is more likely to stabilize after a small increase in the overall future market.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April, the domestic market price of polyester filament showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester fdy150d / 96F and polyester fdy150d / 96F in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported as 4900-5050 yuan / ton, 6400-6900 yuan / ton and 5550-5600 yuan / ton respectively. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of crude oil cooperation and production reduction, the raw material market was strongly supported, the market speculative bottom reading and replenishment market appeared, the volume of transactions of polyester filament products was large, and the price rose slightly, but with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market transaction atmosphere fell, and the price began to fall on April 10, among which polyester POY declined significantly, as of the 27th, polyester POY (150D / 48F) market The average price is 4944 yuan / ton, down 7.83% compared with that of the 10th day.

Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

Product: April 10, 2020 April 27, up and down April, up and down year on year

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5364 4944 – 7.83% 1.02% – 43.97%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5905 5565 – 5.76% 5.60% – 39.62%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7176 6801 – 5.23% – 3.10% – 34.49%

At the raw material end, the crude oil plummeted, the market mentality was frustrated, and the energy sector sentiment was depressed. Although the recent price has stopped falling and picked up, it still maintains a relatively low trend. The global crude oil demand has been sharply reduced, but the supply end is still showing an increasing trend. Under the pressure of storage capacity, the market fundamentals are still weak. In March, affected by the weak domestic demand, PTA factory inventory pressure is large, domestic PTA production enterprises have to repair and stop production, PTA operation rate fell to 69% in the middle and late March. With the end of the maintenance period and the impact of crude oil weakening, the decline of chemicals closer to the upstream is more and more big. Under the benefit of naphtha and PX, the PTA processing fee once rose to 805 yuan / ton last week. Under such a high processing fee level, the production enthusiasm of PTA plant is very high, which leads to the recent PTA operation rate has been at the level of more than 90%, significantly higher than the same period of previous years. At the same time, the demand side has not improved significantly, so PTA is still in the obvious accumulation in the whole April. Up to now, PTA social inventory is 3.35 million tons. It should be noted that with the continuous production of new devices, the PTA capacity in China has reached 52.255 million tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the previous capacity base, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.

Statistics of recent PTA plant changes

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Ningbo Yisheng 200 stopped short on April 20 and has now returned to normal operation

Ningbo Yisheng 220 postponed maintenance to May

Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to stop for maintenance from May 6, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 was overhauled on April 17, with a planned overhaul period of 1 month

Hanbang Petrochemical 60 failed to stop on April 17, and has been restarted

Yadong Petrochemical will stop for maintenance from April 25, and restart on April 29

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Jialong Petrochemical 60 stopped for maintenance on August 2, and the restart time is to be determined

The downstream weaving industry is in a downturn. At present, the trading volume of light textile city is significantly lower than that of the same period in recent years, and the market trading is light. From the perspective of the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 26, the comprehensive operating rate was 48.00%. In the face of the coming May Day holiday, some enterprises have begun to take holidays. At the same time, due to the impact of this public health event, the export orders of weaving foreign trade were cancelled or postponed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, the cumulative export amount of China’s textiles and clothing was 45.26 billion US dollars, down 17.7% compared with the same period of last year, including 22.69 billion US dollars for textiles, down 14.6% compared with the same period of last year, and 22.57 billion US dollars for clothing, down 20.6% compared with the same period of last year.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that due to the impact of crude oil decline, the cost center of gravity has shifted down, PTA has continued to accumulate the pressure of storage, and there is no turning point to go to storage, high inventory or become the normal state of PTA, and the current PTA fundamentals are not well boosted. The downstream terminal weaving foreign trade order is missing, the domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and near the May Day holiday, some weaving enterprises have plans to stop work in advance for the holiday, there are negative expectations. Affected by upstream and downstream drag, polyester filament market is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the main domestic styrene prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week and began to rise slightly on Thursday. The price of sample enterprises on Monday (April 20) was 5150.00 yuan / ton, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (April 24) was 5000.00 yuan / ton, down 2.91%, 40.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week’s styrene market fell slightly after a weak rebound. East China on April 20: East China styrene closed at 5150 yuan / ton. On April 24, East China styrene closed at 4950-5100 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 20, South China styrene closed at 5100-5200 yuan / ton, and on April 24, South China styrene closed at 4950-5000 yuan / ton, down by 100 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week’s styrene market was mainly volatile, with a slight decline in the overall market.

Industrial chain:

The trend of international crude oil fluctuated sharply. The overall oil price fluctuated downward. At the beginning of the week, the oil price fell sharply. Wti05 contract delivery showed a historical negative value. But on Thursday, the crude oil price was gradually put on the agenda with the renewed tension of the “US Iraq” relationship and the production reduction of OPEC + and other oil producing countries. The oil price rebounded strongly, styrene market sentiment rose, and the price stopped rising on Thursday. In the upstream, the price of pure benzene was stable compared with last week, while the price of ethylene declined, while the price of PS, EPS and ABS in the downstream decreased slightly. Styrene inventory in East China port fell this week, but it is still higher than the same period last year. At the end of April, the amount of styrene imported from East China increased, and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased. It is expected that the operation rate of domestic styrene plant will reach about 74.5%. In the short term, it is difficult to change the situation that styrene supply exceeds demand. Although the downstream of styrene still keeps considerable profits, there is little new demand for styrene, and most of it is pre-sale.

3、 Future outlook

As a whole, the whole styrene market lacks strong support points. In May, the situation of styrene supply surplus still exists, but crude oil has a great impact on the styrene industry chain, and the crude oil price is still likely to rebound. It is expected that next week, styrene will be mainly consolidated in a weak shock with a price of 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Price trend:

On April 25, crude benzene commodity index was 35.23, unchanged from yesterday, 73.28% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 15.36% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the domestic pure benzene market and the external market are lower this week. WTI crude oil futures in May fell 55.90 US dollars to – 37.63 US dollars / barrel on the 20th of this week. The start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still at a low level this week. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is large. The bidding price of crude benzene enterprises this week is adjusted. As of Friday, the quotation in Shandong region is around 2050 yuan / ton, about 800 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil, the business community believes that the oil price will still fluctuate in a wide range at a low level in the near future. Although there are some favorable releases at the supply side in the short term, considering the continuous impact of the epidemic, the problem at the demand side is the most critical factor restricting the oil price at present. Even though trump said that the economy of the United States will restart in May, the effect may be greatly reduced in terms of the current situation of the epidemic in the United States. In particular, the global crude oil inventory has risen sharply, and the pressure on storage capacity will only become more and more serious. The growth of commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States is much larger than expected. It is also predicted that the global oil storage space may be exhausted in the next few weeks, and the operating rate of refineries may fall again, which will also force oil producing countries to further reduce production, and crude oil may be in epidemic in the future To seek rebalancing under the condition of low demand caused by emotion.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

Three, trend forecast:

Next week is the last trading week before the May Day holiday. Near the small and long holiday, some manufacturers should have certain purchase plans. It is expected that crude benzene prices will rise slightly.