According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has slightly declined recently. As of August 25th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 5680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from 5717.50 yuan/ton on August 18th.

In terms of supply: Recently, the overall market for maleic anhydride has slightly declined, with the Yantai auction suspended and the East China auction rising first and then falling. The main factories for maleic anhydride have followed suit in terms of execution prices. At present, the load of the three lines in Yantai is 70%, and the liquid anhydride produced by the Hubei unit has been put into the tank. Recently, downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have maintained a stock of essential goods and are mainly observing the situation. As of August 25th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong is around 5300 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 4750 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has risen, and as of August 25th, the price in Shandong is around 4750 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Currently, the unsaturated resin market is weak and stable. The downstream demand for unsaturated resin is limited, and the upstream raw material market is weak, resulting in limited support for unsaturated resin and weak market consolidation.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the recent rise in the upstream n-butane market for maleic anhydride is supported by the cost of maleic anhydride; However, the main downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, and the purchase of maleic anhydride is limited, which hinders the rise of the maleic anhydride market. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 18th to 22nd, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 15683 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15633 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.32% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 9.72%. The factory started operating steadily during the week, and traders followed the market trend. There were fewer inquiries on site, and the trading atmosphere was quiet.

On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an will begin on July 23rd and is expected to last for about 35 days.
On the cost side, pure benzene fluctuated slightly this week. As the end of the month approaches, downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the pressure on intermediaries to ship is increasing, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of transactions. Overall, with the increase in import volume and the production of new production capacity, the demand side is struggling to keep up, and the fundamentals are weak, resulting in a sluggish rise in the pure benzene market. The price of aniline is temporarily stable.
On the demand side, downstream demand is average, the trading atmosphere is quiet, and transactions are mainly small orders.
Market forecast: As the end of the month approaches, the settlement prices of major companies are about to be released, and the market is waiting for more guidance from news sources. It is expected that the short-term aggregated MDI market will experience narrow fluctuations.

The domestic acetone market experienced a narrow decline. The acetone market in East China reported an average price of 4730 yuan/ton from August 11th to 4696 yuan/ton on August 18th, a decrease of 0.7%. From the perspective of the national acetone market, there are fluctuations of the same magnitude.

The domestic acetone market has experienced a narrow decline, with Sinopec companies implementing a listing price of 4800 yuan/ton during the week. Raw materials have risen during the week, and although costs have increased, phenol ketone manufacturers are still in a loss making state, with a production rate of around 75%. At present, the port inventory is 27500 tons, and the spot resources are relatively sufficient. The downstream factories are mainly in urgent need.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on August 18th are as follows:
Region. Quotation on August 18th /8.11-18
East China region / 4620./ -100
Shandong region / 4750./ -50
Yanshan region / 4800./ -20
South China region / 4750./ -50

From the perspective of Business Society, it is expected that acetone will continue to weaken next week. From the supply side, there has been little change in domestic equipment, and imported resources have been gradually replenished, while port inventory remains high. From the perspective of demand, downstream bisphenol A and isopropanol units have seen some improvement, while MIBK has not fluctuated significantly. However, overall procurement is still mainly based on demand, but with the passing of high temperature weather, the overall demand for solvent products will improve. From a cost perspective, the pure benzene market is weakening. At present, the acetone market is at a low level, and it is expected that the acetone market will remain stable or have a narrow upward trend next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fell first and then rose this week, with an overall upward trend. From August 8th to August 15th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9100 yuan/ton to 9166 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.73% during the period. At the beginning of the week, the market trend was relatively stable. In the middle of the week, the atmosphere in the spot market began to improve, boosted by the rise of downstream markets. Domestic main refineries raised their ex factory prices one after another, driving a slight rebound in spot market prices. As of the weekend, due to the downstream still being in a state of urgent procurement, the support for the market was limited, and spot prices generally rebounded. As of August 15th, the delivery price in the Shandong Luzhong area was between 9300-9500 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices fluctuated mainly within a range. On the one hand, OPEC+announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day until September, marking the organization’s exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is affecting the oil market, and global macro data is bearish. In addition, the fundamental impact of the upcoming off-season of US summer demand will continue to put pressure on the crude oil market price. As of August 14th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures September contract was reported at $63.96 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $66.84 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged.
The 160000 tons/year butadiene unit of Fushun Petrochemical is operating normally, shut down, and currently has no export plans. It is expected to restart in October.
Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a reduction of 150 yuan/ton and an implementation of 9200 yuan/ton.
The 90000 tons/year butadiene plant of Satellite Chemical is operating normally, with a reduction of 150 yuan/ton and an implementation of 9200 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 15th, the market situation of Shunding rubber has slightly increased. Downstream urgent inquiries, market sentiment has rebounded, and the futures price of Shunding rubber has fluctuated and consolidated. Market transactions are mainly small orders, and merchant offers have slightly increased by around 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 11700~11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The Fushun petrochemical plant is scheduled for maintenance this week and is expected to resume in October. However, due to the recent abundant supply of imported goods, the favorable supply situation is limited. From the demand side, the downstream rubber market has performed well, providing some support to the market, but overall maintaining rigid demand procurement. Overall, there is limited positive news for the butadiene market in terms of supply and demand, and it is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has skyrocketed since the 11th. As of August 12th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 75733 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.28% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 13.58% compared to the same period last year; The benchmark price for industrial grade lithium carbonate trading is 74166 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.95% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 12.75% compared to the same period last year.
Ningwang Mining Area suspends production, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up
On July 7th, the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City issued a notice requiring 8 lithium mining enterprises to complete the preparation of verification reports on changes in mineral types and reserves before September 30th, involving 8 enterprises. On August 9th, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area under Ningde Times suspended mining due to the expiration of its mining rights certificate, and the shutdown may last for more than three months. As soon as the news was released, the market reacted violently. On August 11th, the main contract LC2511 for lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit up, reaching 81000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8%. At present, except for the expiration of the mining license for the porcelain clay mine in the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times, the mining licenses of the other seven mines will expire after 2027. The probability of a complete shutdown of the mine during the renewal period of the mining rights certificate is relatively low.
In the short term, the suspension of production at the Ningde Times mining site has had an impact on the domestic supply of lithium mica. However, in terms of supply structure, the production at the salt lake site has not been directly affected, and overseas imports have also provided an increase in supply.
Demand side: The off-season for new energy vehicles is not weak, and the demand for energy storage is growing structurally
Resilience of demand for new energy vehicles:
In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month on month decrease of 4%, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. At the policy level, the reduction and exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles and the trade in policy will continue until next year, and it is expected that demand will maintain steady growth in the second half of the year. However, there is a risk of a ‘weak peak season’, and if the production schedule for August and September falls short of expectations, it may suppress the upward potential of prices.
Differentiation of demand in the field of energy storage:
In the short term, large-scale energy storage project bidding is strongly driven by policies, but the growth rate of household energy storage has slowed down due to insufficient economic viability. In the long run, the penetration of sodium batteries in the energy storage field may divert some lithium demand. However, the current cost of sodium batteries is still higher than that of lithium batteries (0.5 yuan/Wh vs 0.32 yuan/Wh), and large-scale substitution still requires time.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the price of lithium carbonate has been operating strongly due to supply disturbances recently, but in the medium term, attention should be paid to overseas incremental release and demand verification.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 4th to 8th, MTBE prices rose from 5030 yuan/ton to 5120 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.79% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.91%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.15%. The domestic MTBE market is operating steadily, with prices experiencing a slight increase. Large manufacturers such as Lihua Yi export to the port and currently have no exports, which provides significant support to the market. At the same time, some large manufacturers mainly deliver for export, resulting in a decrease in export volume. Under this support, MTBE manufacturers maintain high prices for shipments.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: international oil prices have significantly fallen, mainly due to negative factors such as OPEC+production increase bringing negative pressure, temporary easing of geopolitical situation, and continued global economic weakness. As of August 7th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the October contract was $66.43 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures continue to fall, and the refined oil market is weak and declining. The main reason is that the weakness of crude oil has always shrouded the oil market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the oil market. Intermediate traders have a weak intention to place orders, while gas station merchants are mainly in urgent need of replenishment. Therefore, refineries have to lower prices and promote sales due to inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Short term domestic MTBE supply side is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on August 7th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.97/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $654.41-656.41/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $794.49-794.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $4.57 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $707.08-707.44 per ton (199.65-199.75 cents per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that the cost price will remain high, and coupled with some large manufacturers still delivering for export, the export volume is not large, so there is a high probability that the market will remain firm and consolidate. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly dominated by strong consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 4th to 8th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2375 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2378 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.11% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise, with local supply and maintenance combined with the increase in olefin production in mainland China. Against the backdrop of low inventory, the tight supply of circulating goods in the market has led to companies being reluctant to sell at high prices. Traders are actively chasing after the rise due to the impact of buying, while downstream buyers are passively purchasing at high prices.

As of the close on August 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been lowered. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2391 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2399 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2378 yuan/ton. It closed at 2383 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 12 yuan or 0.50% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 299310 lots, the open position is 407074, and the daily increase is -29603.
On the cost side, the contraction of coal supply dominates the market, and coal prices continue to rise, with increased support from the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid is mainly stable, and the overall shipping sentiment of factories is average. Traders and downstream suppliers mainly replenish on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. The focus of raw material methanol is increasing, and factories in the main production areas are passively raising prices due to cost increases, resulting in weak downstream demand. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is consolidating horizontally. The price of methanol, a raw material in the main production areas, has been rising narrowly, and costs continue to strengthen. The domestic demand for dimethyl ether market is relatively weak, and buying gas support is inadequate. Most downstream products have been affected by the rise in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 7th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 332.5-333.5 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 95-96 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 268.5-269.5 euros/ton, up 7 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the accumulation of social inventory in ports, the resumption of maintenance of methanol enterprises in mainland China, the increase in olefin procurement, and the demand side support for price increases will be more significant. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is expected to strengthen and consolidate.

The price of ethylene glycol remained strong in July and slightly fell at the end of the month
In July, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, showing an inverted “V” trend. In the early stage, influenced by anti involution sentiment, the price of bulk commodities showed an upward trend, and the price of ethylene glycol steadily rose. From a fundamental perspective, in mid July, there were rumors circulating in the market that ethylene glycol was negatively affected by Zhejiang Petrochemical’s EG reduction, problems with Shenghong CDU, unplanned maintenance of Singapore Shell, delayed shipment from Saudi Arabia, and the satellite’s PE opening but EG not opening in August, as well as another cracking stop in August. These news had a relatively positive impact on the supply of ethylene glycol, coupled with low port inventory data and a significant rebound in raw coal prices. As a result, the price of ethylene glycol rose significantly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market showed a unilateral upward trend in July. From July 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased narrowly from 5655 yuan/ton to 5677 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year price decline of 5.58%.

At the beginning of the month, with high cost support, the pressure on ethanol costs further deepened, and short-term on-site transactions were limited.
In the first half of the month, cost support weakened, supply side equipment is about to recover, downstream demand has not changed significantly, and the ethanol market is digesting the increase.
In the middle of the month, the price of raw corn decreased narrowly, and cost support weakened. At present, the domestic ethanol market is showing a weak supply-demand situation, and the ethanol market is mainly focused on consolidation and observation.
At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable, with some factories experiencing price increases but no actual orders. Downstream chemical companies also made essential purchases, resulting in a slight decrease in transaction prices.
On the cost side, in the first half of the month, the center of gravity of corn prices continued to shift upwards. At present, the average weekly price of corn in China is 2437 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors. The overall price of corn is still weak, the market atmosphere is weak, and spot prices continue to decline. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. The Huanan plant in Heilongjiang Province produces it, while the Jixian line produces it. Laha has resumed full production. The Bayan plant is expected to shut down on the 29th, while Wanli Runda’s edible and fuel facilities have already shut down. Zhongke Green’s production and Shenglong’s plant have also shut down. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream chemical delivery prices have slightly decreased, and ethanol consumption has decreased. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.
The future forecast shows that the supply side will increase and decrease, and the cost advantage will decrease. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market trend will mainly focus on observation and consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12566 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12833/ton, with a price increase of 2.12%.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have increased this month, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) ranging from 10000 to 13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow, and market demand is accelerating. Industry insiders are mostly optimistic about the future market.
Internationally, in 2024, multiple natural disasters will occur: Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, while some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency and supporting price increases. The import price of coconut shell carbonization material specifications, including taxes, has exceeded the 8000 yuan/ton mark.
Prediction: The domestic supply of activated carbon raw materials is tight, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.