On July 30, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.92/barrel, down $1.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, with the main contract settlement price at $43.25/barrel, down $0.84. Oil prices fell sharply, mainly due to weak US economic data and political uncertainty.

The main reason for the sharp decline in oil prices was that the United States released the initial GDP report on the evening of July 30. The data showed that the real GDP of the United States in the second quarter fell by 32.9%, the worst record since the publication of quarterly GDP data in 1947. At the same time, the actual quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter of the United States recorded – 34.6%, the largest decline in history. As soon as the data was released, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI falling to $38.72/barrel. Uncertainty in the economic outlook has hit oil prices hard.

In addition, trump tweeted that the election was postponed and the US stock market fell sharply. The risky assets represented by crude oil in the commodity market were also sold off, and the downward pressure on prices increased. Investors are generally worried about the chain reaction of the capital market caused by the election delay, which challenges the US Constitution and gives us political uncertainty.

Under the current epidemic situation, while crude oil demand is slowing down, there is also a great risk on the supply side. OPEC + will officially begin to relax the record production reduction on August 1. The crude oil production was cut by 9.7 million barrels / day from May to June. Later, this policy continued to July. But as soon as August enters, the reduction rate of OPEC + production may be discounted. OPEC plans to start from August to this year In the rest of the time, the quota for production reduction will be relaxed by 2 million barrels / day. Although OPEC + hopes for economic recovery, the actual situation is not satisfactory at present. Many negative indicators, including the weak US GDP data, have been suppressed by the epidemic cases. If OPEC + relaxed the production reduction quota, the current pattern of supply and demand balance may be broken again.

On the whole, the business club believes that at present, the oil market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the short position momentum is relatively strong in the short term, and the epidemic situation is still very serious, which is a drag on fuel demand. There are also some uncertainties about the future of the U.S. economic recovery, which will put pressure on oil prices. Superimposed with OPEC + easing production reduction expectations, oil prices still have downward pressure in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices fell this week. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on July 27 was 9666 yuan / ton, while that on July 31 was 9566 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.03%.

2、 Market analysis

As of the end of this week, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9000 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 10000 yuan / T, 400000 tons / year of the plant normal operation, caprolactam unit normal operation. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 9800 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant was normally started, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9800 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

The price of pure benzene rose this week. At the end of the week, the average listing price was 3150 yuan / ton, slightly higher than that at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price of pure benzene in Shandong is about 3150 yuan / ton, and that in East China is about 3450 yuan / ton. The price of downstream PA6 slice fell, the terminal demand was weak, the market was cold and the market was bearish.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that although the price of raw materials rose, cost side support is strong. But the downstream demand is weak, and the overall pressure bearing phenomenon is still in place. It is expected that caprolactam market will run smoothly in the short term.

This week, spot tin market price (7.27-31) mainly fluctuated. The domestic market average price was 143662.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 145475 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 1.26%.

On July 30, the tin commodity index was 74.73, down 0.68 points compared with yesterday, 25.46% lower than 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and 74.36% higher than the lowest 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The depreciation of the US dollar pushed up the metal prices, LME London Metals rebounded, Lunxi opened high and closed up 2.44%, which reached a one-year high. Shanghai tin rose sharply on Tuesday 28th, reaching 154400 yuan / ton, and the spot market price increased by 5000 yuan / ton. After that, the market fell, and the tin price went down all the way to this Friday’s spot market. The mainstream price was 144000-147500 yuan / T. As of the end of the weekend, Shanghai Tin’s 10 contract will face a premium of 500 yuan / ton for Yunxi, 500 yuan / ton for Yunzi and 2000 yuan / ton for small brands.

In the upstream, Myanmar originally planned to resume supply by the end of this month. Compared with the current situation, the lifting of the relevant ban was delayed, the supply recovery was slow, and the upstream supply was tight, which would affect the tin ingot supply in the future.

Houshi business agency believes that on the evening of July 27, Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining Co., Ltd. issued an announcement saying that up to now, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary xiwuzhumuqin banner yinman Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “yinman mining”) has the conditions to resume production and will resume production in the near future. On the day of the announcement, Xingye mining got back the “work safety license” temporarily withheld by the emergency department of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. With the resumption of production of “yinman mining”, the current situation of tight supply of domestic mining end will be alleviated to some extent, and the downstream demand is relatively general at present. The price of tin spot market mostly follows the trend of futures market. It is expected that the future high-level oscillation will be dominant.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4280 yuan / ton on July 24 and 4300-4400 yuan / ton in East China.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene was boosted by multiple positive, and the price rose slightly. The listing price on July 26 was 2980-3300 yuan / ton (average price was 3190 yuan / ton), and the average price was 50 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 1.59%. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 50 yuan / ton to 3150 yuan / ton, with the bottom support slightly stronger. In addition, the strength of the external market led to the rise of the focus of the domestic market. However, the port inventory of pure benzene rose again this week, with the main port inventory of about 268000 tons. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase in the later period.

The price of nitric acid rose this week. On July 22, the price in East China increased by 83.33 yuan / ton to 1533.33 yuan / ton, up 5.75% from last week.

The production and sales of aniline enterprises were balanced, and the overall price remained stable within the week. At the beginning of the week, the spot price in East China rose slightly due to the preparation of shipping goods, and fell back near the end of the week. In addition, the cost side of this week came good news, aniline Market has been a certain boost.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene port inventory remains high, downstream demand has not made a major breakthrough, supply pressure restricts the pure benzene market. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to fluctuate in the range, but near the end of the month, the short filling sentiment is strong, and the pure benzene is expected to rise slightly next week.

It is estimated that the cost side may rise, but the increase is not large, and the aniline price is still stable as a whole.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory price of octanol in Shandong increased from 7066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.12%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.37% compared with the same period of last year. Overall, octanol market rose this week, with the octanol commodity index of 53.06 on July 24.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province rose this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7200 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 7100 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol this weekend was 7350 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week It increased by 200 yuan / ton.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 6785.45 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6870.09 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.25%, and a decrease of 11.72% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market price rise, affected by the supply and demand side, has a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose this week. DOP’s offer rose from 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.90%, down 0.46% from the same period last year. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement increased, octanol demand was general, the rise of DOP price had a positive impact on octanol market. After the market operators more watch the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late July, the market trend of octanol in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The upstream propylene price rose, the cost support was strong, the downstream DOP market began to rise, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was strong. Octanol analysts believe that: in late July, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate and rise slightly.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2340 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 18.98%. On July 24, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 123.16, which was the same as yesterday, 1.68% lower than 125.26 (2020-03-15), and 59.18% higher than 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are in a general situation of plant start-up. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Some manufacturers reflect that the goods are in general. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, the transportation is normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, some manufacturers’ prices are stable, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2200 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose, the weekend price was 1533.33 yuan / ton, the price trend of this week increased by 5.75%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offered 1400 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offered 1750 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical industry quoted 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the situation of on-site delivery has increased. The prices of some manufacturers have gone up, and the price trend of nitric acid market has risen. The stable price of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia declined this week, and the price trend of liquid ammonia decreased by 5.23% this week. The operation of liquid ammonia plant was normal, the spot supply was sufficient, and the market price of liquid ammonia dropped sharply. However, the peak season of fertilizer consumption has passed. Affected by the rising inventory pressure, the liquid ammonia gradually accumulates in Shandong region, the plant is stable, and the supply continues to increase, leading to certain pressure on enterprises. Combined with the decrease of liquid ammonia shipment, the downstream rigid procurement is the main reason, and the seasonal off-season support for the market is insufficient, and the domestic market price of liquid ammonia is lower. Domestic liquid ammonia supply pressure still exists, especially the regional imbalance, which leads to greater supply pressure in some regions. In terms of demand, the peak season of downstream fertilizer demand is no longer, the upstream liquid ammonia market price is lower, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is limited, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are generally. The price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable, which has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may stabilize temporarily in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 2.35% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of toluene fell slightly, affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent, the demand for toluene fell, the market trading atmosphere was not active, and the price was weak. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3300 yuan / ton. Due to the continuous deterioration of global epidemic situation in many places and the increasing uncertainty of energy and fuel demand, the aftermarket continued to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the 2q2020 economic data of various countries successively disclosed.

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s international oil prices continued to rise slightly from Monday to Thursday, fell back on Friday to adjust. At present, the crude oil price is generally in the oscillation range, and there is no sign of change in the short term. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $0.59/barrel to close at $43.71/barrel, up 1.37%. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. Under the background of large-scale water release, it is difficult to judge the price rise and fall by traditional logic in the market trend. The future market pays close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $40-44 / barrel.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market has begun to stabilize. For domestic goods with bills of lading, the reference for outbound offers of domestic goods is 10200-10400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10500-10600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 524 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 542 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand and trend, and the 2q2020 economic data of various countries. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

WTI crude oil futures settlement price in August 2020 was US $40.62 per barrel, down 0.01 US dollars / barrel, or 0.02%, with the trading range of 39.9-40.95 US dollars / barrel; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil in September 2020 was 43.08 US dollars per barrel, down 0.02 US dollars / barrel, or 0.05%, with the trading range of 42.46-43.45 US dollars / barrel.

2、 Market analysis

Price: the mainstream quotation of GPPS is 8200-9300 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 8450-10200 yuan / ton. PS market trend is mainly stable, with a small drop in quotation. Market inquiry atmosphere is general. Small and medium-sized downstream enterprises still purchase on demand, and the actual transaction is slightly light.

3、 Future forecast

PS market price part of the soft, trading atmosphere depressed. Crude oil, styrene and other falls, the industry more risk averse wait-and-see sentiment, some brands offer lower, but most of the brand adjustment space is limited. The market is weak, and the actual transaction is sporadic.

Zinc price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring: domestic zinc prices in the recent three trading days continued to rise sharply. The average price of zinc on July 13 was 18150.00 yuan / ton, up 6.58% compared with 17030.00 yuan / ton on July 8. Zinc prices continue to rise sharply, whether the zinc market to welcome the dawn, return to the bull market?

Market trend of galvanized steel sheet

It can be seen from the trend chart of galvanized steel sheet in July that the price of galvanized steel plate rose slowly in July, and the recent price rise of galvanized steel sheet was obvious, which was good for the zinc market in general, but the support for the rise was insufficient.

Trend of automobile sales

According to the data released by the joint conference of passenger car market information, in June, the sales volume of domestic narrow passenger car market reached 1.654 million, with a month on month increase of 2.9%, and the retail sales in June decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, maintaining the growth trend for four consecutive months since March. In June, the domestic passenger car market broke the law of off-season in the same period of previous years, and still recovered growth. The strong performance of the automobile market is good for the domestic zinc market, which has strong support.

According to the June production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in June 2020, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.235 million and 2.3 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 6.3% and 4.8% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 22.5% and 11.6% respectively. Moreover, the automobile production and sales in June 2020 have both broken the monthly record high of production and sales in June of previous years. The outstanding performance of automobile market has provided enough support for the rebound of zinc market, and the demand for zinc in automobile market is rising.

LME international zinc price

It can be seen from the LME zinc price trend chart that the zinc price of futures in July fluctuated and rose. The rise of zinc price in the recent three trading days stimulated the rebound of zinc price in the spot market, and the spot zinc market was favorable.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, believes: since July, the downstream market of zinc market has been favorable, the market of galvanized steel has continued to rise, the demand for zinc in the automobile market has increased, and the favorable situation in the zinc market has been strengthened; the rise of zinc price in international futures has provided the most direct support for the rebound of spot zinc price, and the upward momentum of zinc market is sufficient. However, the performance of the automobile market in June is the result of multiple factors of policy and market. It is expected that the trend will return to normal in the second half of the year. It is difficult for the automobile market to bring sustained upward support to the zinc market. The price of galvanized steel plate increased in July, but the increase was small, which had a limited effect on the spot zinc price. Generally speaking, the rising support of zinc market in the future is insufficient, and the driving force of continuous rise of zinc price is general. It is expected that zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China dropped slightly. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers dropped from 2522.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2427.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 95 yuan / ton or 3.77%, and 18.06% compared with the same period last year. Overall, calcium carbide market fell this week, and the carbide commodity index on July 10 was 63.60.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide from oviganeng was 2450 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; that of Shaanxi coal industry was 2390 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide Co., Ltd. was 2470 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping Ben At the end of the week, the price of calcium carbide was 2400 yuan / ton, which was 300 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2300-2500 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2400 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 560 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 580 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of upstream raw materials and the general cost support have a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price rose slightly this week. The price of PVC increased from 6257.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6487.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Although the price rose slightly, it decreased by 4.63% compared with the same period last year. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide is also good, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has increased, the increase is limited. At the same time, the downstream resin powder market is weak, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide is general. In addition, the current calcium carbide production capacity is surplus. Later, the market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will fall slightly in mid July.