Recent trend of urea price
As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2720.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2780.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 67.81%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 129.30 on July 16.
Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down, supply side was tight, printing label stimulated
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2780 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.
From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 4093.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4246.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 3.73%, 72.40% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 982.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1005.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.29%, 69.33% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4516.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.50%, 45.70% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 11633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.87%.
In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the production of urea enterprises has been reduced and resumed alternately, the recovery of start-up is slow, the daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International aspect: India announced the fifth urea import bidding in the year on the evening of July 13 (Tuesday), opened the bid on July 22, and scheduled the shipment on August 31, which boosted the domestic market mentality. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, but the supply is tight, the printing standard is stimulated, and the market price may reach the peak again.
India standard boost, future price bullish
In late July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. According to urea analysts of business news agency, at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, the industrial demand has followed up steadily, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, but the urea plant maintenance is still tight, the supply is tight, the printing standard is landing, the domestic market mentality has been boosted, and the market price in the future may fluctuate slightly.