Domestic cobalt price stopped falling and rising in February
According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the cobalt price was 302500 yuan/ton, up 2.13% from 296200 yuan/ton on February 1. The supply of cobalt market was limited and the demand recovered. The international cobalt price stopped falling and rose, while the domestic cobalt price fell first and then rose.
International cobalt price stops falling and rises
From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that in February, the MB cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, the international cobalt price stopped falling, the domestic cobalt market turned from bad to good, and the domestic cobalt price’s downward pressure weakened and the upward momentum increased.
Domestic cobalt market demand is expected to increase
In the first week of the Spring Festival in 2023, the price of nickel sulfate continued to rise, the price of battery grade nickel sulfate was inversely higher than that of cobalt sulfate, the cost performance ratio of high nickel and low cobalt ternary batteries was weakened, the need for cobalt removal of ternary batteries became weaker, high nickel and low cobalt became the chicken ribs, and the demand of cobalt market was expected to increase; The demand for cobalt in traditional alloys, magnetic materials and other markets recovered slowly.
Sales of new energy vehicles declined in January
According to the data released by the China Automobile Association on the 10th, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis and 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis. According to the data released by the Passenger Transport Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 389000 in January, down 7.3% year-on-year and 48.2% month-on-month. In January, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 332000, down 6.3% year-on-year and 48.3% month-on-month. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both declined on a month-on-month basis, the demand for cobalt market declined, and the pressure on cobalt price decline increased.
South Africa’s transportation is blocked and supply of cobalt is limited
In February, seven provinces in South Africa were hit by rainstorm and triggered floods. The floods in South Africa affected transportation. Since February, the power crisis in South Africa has intensified, and large-scale power outages have occurred in South Africa. In the short term, the supply of cobalt market is limited, while the demand of domestic cobalt market has warmed up, and the risk of shortage of cobalt market has increased.
Local new energy vehicle policies
Eight departments, including the First Equipment Industry Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the Notice on Organizing the Pilot Work of Comprehensive Electrification of Vehicles in the Public Sector to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry; Nanjing continues to implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles; Hunan pointed out in the “20 items of stable growth” that the policy of replacing new energy vehicles with capital subsidies should be continued to drive the production and consumption of new energy vehicles; The People’s Government of Guangdong Province is now printing and distributing the Implementation Plan of Guangdong Province’s Carbon Peak, which proposes to vigorously develop the new energy automobile industry; Sichuan Province should implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax on new energy vehicles and carry out a series of consumption promotion activities such as new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise.
Overview and prospect
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business News, believes that the international cobalt price has stopped rising, which is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, which is bad for the domestic cobalt market; High nickel and low cobalt have become chicken ribs. The comparison of battery cobalt removal has weakened, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise. There is a large price difference between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt salt. The profit of electrolytic cobalt enterprises is better than that of cobalt salt enterprises, and the production scheduling of electrolytic cobalt production enterprises is increased; Limited transportation in South Africa affects the supply of cobalt market, which is expected to decrease. In the future, the expected growth of demand and supply in the cobalt market is limited, and it is expected that the cobalt market in the future will recover slightly.