In November 2022, the domestic market of 1 # lead ingot will fluctuate upward. The average price of the domestic market will be 15085 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.59%.

On November 28, the lead commodity index was 93.97, down 0.03 points from yesterday, down 29.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 25.91% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and it has declined overall, but the decline is small, and the overall trend is still dominated by narrow fluctuations in the off-season. After entering September, the lead ingot market began to recover. The peak season ended in late November, and the lead price declined.

Lead futures market in October 2022

Variety. Closing price on October 28./Closing price on November 28./Inventory on October 28./Inventory on November 28

Shanghai Lead/15050 yuan/ton/15580 yuan/ton/53693 tons/41180 tons

London lead./1992 dollars/ton./2122 dollars/ton./28250 tons./24350 tons

In the first half of November, the trend of the peak season continued, and the lead price rose significantly. Since the middle of November, with the cold weather, the peak season for battery enterprises has come to an end, and the lead price has been affected slightly, but it still remains at a high level. Fundamentally speaking, the import of ore end in terms of supply is still tight, the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall supply of lead has slightly increased compared with the early stage. However, as the price of lead ingots continues to rise recently, the downstream receiving of goods has slowed down to a certain extent, and the overall inventory of lead ingots has risen. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since entering the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season is coming to an end, and the market expects the demand for lead to decline in the future, but the recent export performance is fair, the export arbitrage window is open, the market expectation is fair, and the price remains at a high consolidation trend. On the whole, the lead ingot market is still positive. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and strong, and the short-term trend will mainly follow the macro factors.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16920 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16950 yuan/ton on December 1, 2022, the price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.18%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in December (12.01-12.05), the overall domestic silicone DMC market was weak and fell slightly. The downstream demand side support of organic silicon is still weak, and the demand side support continues to be insufficient. The supply of some factories is under pressure, and the prices of some suppliers in Shandong have decreased slightly by 50-100 yuan/ton. On December 5, the domestic silicone DMC market price was around 16500-17500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

In 2022, the last month will come, with the opening of domestic logistics in many places, the increase of the circulation speed of goods sources, and the positive macro situation will cheer up the market. In addition, the current silicone DMC market price has fallen to a relatively low level. Therefore, the business silicone DMC data analyst believes that the current silicone DMC market price has been depressed for a long time, and the probability of the market continuing to decline is small. Towards the end of the year, the silicone DMC market may face a demand boost, The market price can operate stably and strongly, so we need to pay more attention to the information changes of supply and demand in the future.

The MIBK market ran smoothly in the first ten days of November. After the middle of the month, MIBK rose sharply due to tight supply, cost support and demand. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the MIBK market price was 11633 yuan/ton on November 1, and the market price rose to 13333.3 yuan/ton on December 1, up 14.6%.

The supply of MIBK market was tight in November. During the month, Jilin Petrochemical’s 15000 t/a MIBK unit was shut down for one month from October 12 to November 10. During the continuous shutdown of Dongying Yimeide’s 15000 t/a unit, the domestic operating rate was 70%. It is understood that the domestic monthly output was 8000 tons, down 10% month on month.

The downstream antioxidant industry has sufficient orders, and the demand for raw materials is fair. The downstream antioxidant 4020 factory mainly delivered more orders, and the factory MIBK directly connected with the antioxidant factory. The distribution to the market circulation was limited, and the traders had few supplies. The attitude of being reluctant to sell was obvious. Other downstream enterprises mainly made small orders, and a large number of supplies were difficult to find, supporting the continuous growth of the raw material MIBK market.

The acetone at the raw material end was boosted by strong support from the cost side. Taking the acetone market in East China as an example, the mainstream negotiated price at the beginning of the month was 5400 yuan/ton, and the market rose to 6150 yuan/ton as of the 28th, with a market increase of 13.9%. Although acetone fell sharply at the end of the month, the main stream of acetone, as the raw material of MIBK products, continued to push up in November, with strong support from the cost side.

From the perspective of the business community, the supply of MIBK in December has improved, and acetone has continued to fall since the end of November, with a significant downward trend. In December, the inventory and maintenance plans of some enterprises in the downstream of MIBK are expected to decline, and the logistics impact in December was great, and the cost increased accordingly. However, on the whole, the current market circulation resources are still limited. The short-term MIBK market is stable and stable, and the negotiation is expected to be 13300-13400 yuan/ton.

In November 2022, both upstream and downstream of the nylon filament market were negatively affected, the market continued to be weak, and the price fell. The supply of goods in the market remained sufficient and stable, the spot supply of caprolactam was sufficient, the price fell, the weakness of nylon chips followed up, the cost side of nylon filament was negative, and the enterprise’s offer was slightly lower. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of nylon filament fell in November. As of November 30, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 17960 yuan/ton, 360 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 1.97%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 15600 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.50%; Nylon FDY (superior product: 40D/12F) price was 18525 yuan/ton, 275 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 1.46%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Caprolactam ran weakly in November, and the price fell. According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic caprolactam continued to be in the downward channel in November. On November 1, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12500 yuan/ton, and on November 30, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12200 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 2.4%. Fundamentally negative, the prices of upstream crude oil and pure benzene fell. In terms of supply, with the restart and recovery of northern units, the supply of caprolactam has increased, and the terminal operating load still has a downward trend. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand

At present, nylon yarn starts stably, 70% of the total starts are on the high side, the on-site supply is sufficient, the inventory is high, and the market is dominated by many main forces to digest the inventory. On the whole, the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend this month. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials are weak and low, the supply of goods in the market remains stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand for textile terminals will decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell first and then rose this month. The price of hydrochloric acid rose from 186.67 yuan/ton on November 1 to 198.00 yuan/ton on November 29, an increase of 6.07%. The price at the end of the month fell by 38.89% year-on-year.

On November 28, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.21% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is general, while the downstream procurement increases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market rose slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride rose from 962.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 995.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.03%. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly. The market price rose from 2011.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.50%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.35%. Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the hydrochloric acid market may rise slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices rose slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Analysts from the business community believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 28 was 8333.33 yuan/ton, up 0.81% compared with the price on November 1.

The melamine market rose slightly in November. In the first half of the month, the price of raw urea rose steadily, the cost support continued to increase, the operating rate of the melamine market was high, domestic downstream procurement was mainly on demand, local transportation was limited, the market atmosphere was general, and the price of the melamine market fluctuated slightly. In the second half of the month, some enterprises in the north stopped for minor repairs, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The demand side was weak, but the cost side was strong, supporting the market price mentality. The focus of market negotiation was stable and rising.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of upstream urea was 2798.00 on November 28, an increase of 11.65% compared with November 1 (2506.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the upstream urea market is currently operating strongly, with strong cost support, high market operating rate, downstream procurement on demand, and partial shipment is not smooth. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will mainly operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to the market interest consumption guidelines.

Since the beginning of 2022, crude oil, coal, natural gas and other energy have soared, which has affected the price of bulk raw materials. As a result, the cost pressure of engineering plastics products increased, and the profit of polymerization enterprises was poor. In addition, the impact of the global macro inflation economic environment on factories at all levels of the industrial chain makes the industry market momentum weak. According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 25, the decline of various engineering plastics products compared with the beginning of the month was from high to low, PA66-4.95%, PA6-2.11%, PC-2.09%, PET+0.33%, POM+1.22%. The recent domestic market peak season is over, and the demand contraction is hard to change. Polymerization enterprises and traders are caught in a dilemma where costs are under pressure while profits are allowed to go, and prices are almost all green.

Commodity./price on November 1./price on November 25/. unit/month rise and fall

PA66/. 25250/. 24000/. yuan/ton/. -4.95%

PA6/. 14233.33/. 13933.33/. yuan/ton/. – 2.11%

PC/. 18333.33/. 17950/. yuan/ton/. -2.09%

PET/. 7286./7310/. yuan/ton/.+0.33%

POM/. 13700/. 13866.67/. yuan/ton/.+1.22%

PA66

Among engineering plastics, PA66 fell the most in November. On the upstream side, the domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine remained tight and the price was firm this month. Adipic acid fell due to the weak raw material market, and the support of PA66 cost fell. In terms of the industry’s operating rate, PA66 enterprises continue to be affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry’s load is limited, the operating level fluctuates between 60% – 70%, and the market’s spot supply is stable and abundant, leading to an increase in the social inventory. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises tend to maintain production just because they need to follow up on the delivery of goods this month. At the end of the traditional peak season, the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation has further declined, and they have strong resistance to high price goods. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the center of gravity of prices loosens in the middle of the month, and the stalemate ends and starts to fall. By the end of the month, the average decline was more than 1200 yuan/ton, and the average price dropped to 24000 yuan/ton.

PA6

The domestic PA6 market fell in November due to volatility. Caprolactam and pure benzene in the upstream product chain continue to be in the downward channel, where caprolactam is in loose supply and PA6 costs are generally weak. In this month, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants was lowered from more than 70% to 65%, with stable output and abundant supply. In addition, the production of new units in the early stage also put pressure on the supply side, and the average monthly drop of spot goods is about 300 yuan. In the downstream, the load of textile enterprises decreased significantly, falling to about 54% at the end of the month, and the stock of PA6 chips decreased. The market fundamentals are generally weak, and the market may continue to be weak.

PC

In November, the domestic PC market fluctuated. The upstream bisphenol A has fallen since the end of September, and the price has gradually approached the cost line. However, the continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. After the price reduction, buyers were not enough to enter the market, and the market remained weak, dragging down the cost of PC. In terms of industry load, the utilization rate of PC capacity in November was roughly adjusted by shocks of 40% to 45%, and slightly recovered at the end of the month. As the industry neared the end of the year, the maintenance was gradually concentrated, and the supply side was significantly tightened, but the flow of goods in the market was slow, which hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing. In addition, PC terminal enterprises are not in a high position to start production, and they need to maintain production just to get goods. The operators are on the empty side and keep a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The actual orders are mainly scattered and small, and the average spot price at the end of the month is about 17950 yuan/ton. On the whole, the weak market supply and demand and cost collapse coexist. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation market in the near future.

PET

This month, the domestic PET market followed the weak decline that lasted for two months in the previous period. During the month, the crude oil price fell, the polyester dual raw material shock weakened, and the support for PET raw material end was insufficient. In the last ten days, due to the slight reduction of the pressure from the maintenance to the supply side of Hainan Eason, the price of repair is narrow, but the industrial load is still up to more than 85%, and the overall supply of goods on the site is abundant. The operating level of the terminal factory is medium to low, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, the actual order delivery is often delayed, and the health events affect the digestion speed of PET, so it is expected that the domestic PET market will be difficult to improve in the short term.

POM

Among the brother products, only POM’s price barely held steady in the month, but the market situation is hardly optimistic. First of all, although the supply of goods is tight, the domestic POM enterprises started at a high level. At the beginning of November, the capacity utilization rate was almost full, and the load at the end of the month was more than 80%. In addition, there was news that two production lines had resumed production recently, so the pressure on POM suppliers gradually emerged. The stock volume of terminal enterprises has been reduced due to the impact of lower commencement. In addition, the operators are cautious in operation and mainly digest inventory due to their bearish outlook on the future market. Most of the traders’ shipments are scattered small orders, and their willingness to pay prices is gradually loosening. The market bears gradually dominate, and it is expected that the POM will end the stalemate and turn to decline in the short term.

Future market forecast

The market of engineering plastics in November was generally negative. In addition to “external factors” such as global inflation and energy pressure, the weakening of its own purchase and sales is the main reason for the negative engineering plastics market in the short term. The load of automobile, textile, household appliances and other industries is lower, and the orders for engineering plastics are reduced. The industry may be difficult to break through from the downstream in a short period of downturn. According to the data monitored by the business community, it is very likely that the future market of engineering plastics products will continue to decline. It is recommended to focus on the international crude oil and upstream product market of various industrial chains.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 24, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7266 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 4.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has experienced a broad rise at the beginning of the month and then a rapid decline, and then entered the middle and late November stage. The n-butanol market as a whole is in a range shock operation. The following are the factors influencing the sharp rise and fall of n-butanol market:

Supply: At the beginning of November, due to the special period, the logistics and transportation restrictions in some areas of Shandong Province, the spot circulation of n-butanol in the plant was less. In addition, some plants were shut down for maintenance. At the beginning of the month, the spot supply of n-butanol was tight, and the supply side had no pressure to support the wide rise of the market.

Demand: At the end of October, the market price of n-butanol was relatively low. In November, the downstream of n-butanol was replenished on bargain, the trading atmosphere in the market was improved, and the supply and demand transmission was smooth. Therefore, at the beginning of the month, the demand side of n-butanol also welcomed a wave of positive support.

Under the dual support of supply and demand, n-butanol has risen by more than 8% in just three days as of November 3. However, it was also difficult to hold the high level. After the completion of the periodic stocking of n-butanol downstream, the downstream began to digest the raw materials, and the demand side of the n-butanol market gradually recovered to calm. After the support from the demand side of n-butanol loosened, the market price of n-butanol quickly fell back to a high level on the 7th, with a drop of nearly 6% in the third day.

Compared with the “high opening and low moving” market at the beginning of the month, the n-butanol market did not fluctuate significantly in the middle and late November, and the overall narrow range of the market was adjusted. Near the end of the month, the downstream demand for n-butanol was slightly improved, and the inventory pressure of some factories was low. On the 23rd and 24th, the market price of n-butanol rose slightly again. As of November 24th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7400-7700 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price rose by 100-300 yuan/ton.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is fair, and the mentality of the industry is improving. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will be able to steadily rise slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi was 9162.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 9175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.14%, and the current price rose 13.98% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been declining recently, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. Recently, new sources of imported potassium chloride are being supplemented, but the supply of special varieties in some regions is slightly tight. The downstream demand is not good, and the purchase of just needed goods is maintained. The transactions in the potassium carbonate market are light, and the market fluctuates and falls. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate mainstream factory this week is about 9000-9200 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fallen, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase of just needed potassium chloride is the main demand, and the market turnover is poor. At present, the sales price of 60% domestic potassium crystals in the market is mostly 3400-3800 yuan/ton. The price of 57% of the powder in Qinghai small factories is 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade areas is 3300-3400 yuan/ton. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is mostly 3450-3600 yuan/ton (the price is reduced by 50 yuan/ton). The price of large particles at the port is mostly 3450-3500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, new orders for border trade of potassium chloride have not been signed, and the supply of goods may be short, but the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will decline slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 22 was 8300.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (November 17), and 0.81% higher than that of November 10.

Recently, the melamine market has been adjusted steadily. From the perspective of cost, the recent raw material urea market has been running steadily, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in the north have stopped for minor repairs, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. Procurement is mainly on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the focus of melamine market negotiation is stability.

On November 22, the benchmark price of upstream urea in the business community was 2710.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.14% compared with that on November 1 (2506.00 yuan/ton).

The melamine analysts of the business agency believe that the current cost level supports the market’s price mentality, but the demand level is weak, the supply and demand level is generally supported, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.