Author Archives: lubon

Aniline prices have slightly decreased this week (June 3, 2024- July 7, 2024)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this week. On June 3rd, the market price of aniline was 12142 yuan/ton, and on June 7th, it was 12118 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.197% compared to last week and increased by 19.32% compared to the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

Pure benzene: Yesterday, the negotiation atmosphere for pure benzene in East China was flat, with contract transactions being the main focus. Some refineries in Shandong have voluntarily lowered their shipments, while some refineries are sticking to bottom prices to sell their goods. Several factories auctioned off, and the transaction volume continued to shrink. Crude oil rebounded, and spot pure benzene fluctuated around 9280 yuan/ton in the night trading. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will consolidate at a high level in the morning. On Friday (June 7th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% from last week and 42.76% from the same period last year.

 

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On June 3rd, the price was 1830 yuan/ton, and on June 7th, the price was 1807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from last week and 11.11% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

Yesterday, the shipment of aniline from the factory was still acceptable, and downstream demand was mainly maintained. Currently, the aniline market lacks upward momentum, and it is expected that aniline will remain stable, moderate, and strong next week.

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The fundamentals of magnesium ingots in May are difficult to improve, and short-term prices may experience narrow fluctuations

In May 2024, the overall cash and tax inclusive price range for magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various major production areas in China is between 18400 and 18800 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

 

The specific price range for each region on the 31st is as follows:

 

The ex factory tax inclusive spot exchange in Fugu area is 18600-18700 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 18700-18800 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 18800-18900 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 18600-18700 yuan/ton.

 

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

 

Overview of the trend of magnesium metal in May

 

According to data from Business Society, the average domestic market price on the 31st was 18700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the average market price of 18666.67 yuan/ton in early May (5.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 20600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.22%.

 

In April, the magnesium ingot market first fell and then rose, with overall prices slightly rising. The supply and demand sides are more in a stalemate game, with manufacturers supported by costs and relatively firm quotes, leading to a slight increase in magnesium prices. However, downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, resulting in insufficient efforts to further boost magnesium prices.

 

In terms of supply and demand

 

In terms of factories, the magnesium plant has slightly increased in operation, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. Due to the continuous increase in production costs, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and their price support sentiment is relatively strong. In terms of demand, after the end of the holiday at the beginning of the month, there was an increase in market procurement release. However, with the increase in magnesium ingot prices and the need for pre holiday procurement customers to consume inventory, downstream market procurement prices have stabilized, and procurement is mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

 

In terms of exports, according to Chinese customs statistics, China exported a total of 161300 tons of various magnesium products from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 21.46%; The cumulative amount is about 486 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.70%. Among them, a total of 93200 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, a year-on-year increase of 39.52%; Magnesium alloy exports totaled 34200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.63%; A total of 29000 tons of magnesium powder were exported, an increase of 30.04% year-on-year. The export price of magnesium ingots in April was lower than expected, and the export volume decreased significantly compared to March.

 

Ferrosilicon rose 19.34% in May

 

In May, the price of ferrosilicon increased significantly, especially with the issuance of the “2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan” at the end of the month. The bullish sentiment in the ferrosilicon market was strong, and ferrosilicon futures rose to the limit at 7824 yuan. The spot market was affected by market conditions, and some manufacturers suspended their quotations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30, the price of ferrosilicon was 7714.29 yuan/ton. The blue charcoal market remained stable and rose in May, as coal prices rose and blue charcoal companies showed a clear sentiment of price support. The strong operation of raw material prices and the strengthening of cost support for magnesium ingots.

 

Future Market Forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, it is difficult to change the short-term fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand. The market is relatively anxious, and downstream customers are resistant to high prices. They are holding onto rigid demand to buy at low prices, and the upward trend of magnesium prices is showing signs of weakness. But due to cost support, it is difficult for magnesium prices to decline. Overall, the short-term price of magnesium ingots is in a dilemma, and the future market tends to be dominated by narrow fluctuations.

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Strong rise in caprolactam market in May

1、 Price trend

 

Sodium Molybdate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on May 1st was 12825 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 13627 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam increased by 6.26%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The domestic market price of caprolactam has continued to rise this month. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this month, leading to increased cost support. The downstream operating rate has increased, leading to a positive demand for raw materials and an increase in terminal demand. Some companies are planning maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply.

 

Cost side

 

The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this month. On May 31st, the price of pure benzene was 9120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.17% from the beginning of the month and 39.02% from the same period last year. As of now, the price of Sinopec pure benzene is 9100 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have increased by 300 yuan/ton simultaneously).

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Demand side

 

The downstream PA6 market has risen this month. The price of caprolactam continues to strengthen, increasing support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable with an increase, and the demand for stocking by terminal enterprises is relatively strong. As of May 31st, the domestic PA6 mixed benchmark price is 15100 yuan/ton, and it may be slightly stronger in the short term.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to caprolactam analysts from Business Society, the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to strengthen recently, with increased cost support. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a focus on replenishing as needed. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of caprolactam will tend to be high and strong, with consolidation and operation as the main trend.

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Market bearish, acrylic ester under pressure

During this period (5.27-6.3), some domestic acrylic ester products were significantly affected by domestic equipment maintenance and a significant increase in overseas exports, resulting in a tight market supply and an overall improvement in quantity and price. The overall market atmosphere is warm, with factories mainly delivering contracts and holders under less pressure to ship. The quotation is steadily running.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

As of June 3rd, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9390.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% compared to last week (9370.00 yuan/ton).

 

As of June 3rd, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate for Shengyishe was 9367.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

 

As of June 3rd, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate for Shengyishe is 12800.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week

 

From the perspective of other products in the industrial chain, the fluctuation range of acrylic acid prices is limited, mainly because, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene has rebounded, with an average propylene market price of 6854.60 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month; The average market price of ethanol is 5987.50 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month; The average market price of n-butanol is 8366.67 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month; The average monthly price of isooctanol in the market is 9900.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month.

 

The downstream water reducing agent market for acrylic acid is maintaining stable operation, with some monomer production enterprises offering narrow fluctuations in prices. Downstream demand side is not highly sensitive to price, and cautious observation is mainly focused on receiving first-time demand. Early inventory digestion is slow, and it is expected that the monomer market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

 

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market analysis

 

Acrylic acid and esters are mainly matched with acrylic acid, and the supply and demand pattern is similar to that of acrylic acid. The CR5 of butyl acrylate in China is 60%, and the top five enterprises are all equipped with acrylic acid production capacity, with a high degree of integration. The most widely used acrylic ester monomer currently is butyl acrylate, which accounts for about 80% of the acrylic ester production capacity.

 

Acrylate downstream industry chain

 

Overall, the current acrylic ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the acrylic acid and ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, and the price fluctuation space may be limited.

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The sponge titanium market declined in May

The sponge titanium market declined in May. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (54750.00 yuan/ton).

 

In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region fell in May. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the benchmark price of Shengyishe titanium concentrate was 2253.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.03% compared to the beginning of this month (2300.00 yuan/ton).

 

The downstream titanium material market prices have fallen, and the market transaction atmosphere is lukewarm.

 

In terms of imports: According to customs data, China’s sponge titanium exports in April 2024 were 182.5 tons, a decrease of 35.07% compared to the previous month.

 

Post forecast:

 

Due to the decline in raw material market prices, the cost pressure on sponge titanium production enterprises has slowed down. With the continuous release of production capacity, production has increased. In addition, there is insufficient demand in the downstream titanium material market, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

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Supply increase and demand decrease, metal silicon may shake and build a foundation

In May, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased and showed a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 13480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4.87% from the same period last year. The fundamental trend of metal silicon in May is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, as the rainy season approaches and silicon factories across the country have to increase production, leading to a gradual increase in supply; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and coupled with the gradual feedback of downstream production loss pressure to upstream, the spot price of metal silicon weakened under the bearish supply and demand side.

 

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Supply side

According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, as of May 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 345, with an overall start-up rate of 46.06%, an increase of 10 from last week and an increase of 44 from last month. The increase in the number of industrial silicon furnaces is mainly due to the approaching flood season, driven by the maintenance and resumption of production by manufacturers in the northwest, and the mutual increase and decrease in other regions.

 

In terms of inventory, as of May 24th, industrial silicon inventory slightly decreased last week, with social inventory of 386000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last week and an increase of 22000 tons from last month; This week, the inventory of industrial silicon factories was 106000 tons, which was basically unchanged from last week and increased by 18000 tons from last month. Downstream demand has decreased significantly, spot market transactions have weakened, some silicon factory orders have been delivered one after another, and most silicon factory inventories have shown a slight increase.

 

Demand side

 

In May, domestic polycrystalline silicon saw a slight decline. In May, polycrystalline silicon enterprises faced a loss making situation, with poor production activity and frequent maintenance and production reduction operations. In addition, polycrystalline silicon enterprises continued to increase inventory, and under the downward trend of prices, the loss making area of polycrystalline silicon enterprises further expanded. The procurement of raw material silicon powder decreased, making it unable to support industrial silicon prices.

 

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In May, the overall domestic DMC market for organic silicon showed a slight downward trend, and the benefits brought by macro policies have not yet been transmitted to the industrial end. Downstream demand is still lukewarm, and organic silicon production is still in a loss making situation. Therefore, production enthusiasm is limited, and some enterprises maintain a negative production state. They mainly purchase industrial silicon in small quantities and multiple times as needed, making it difficult to bring incremental demand to industrial silicon.

 

The price of aluminum alloy slightly decreased in May. Recently, aluminum prices have shown strong performance, providing support for aluminum alloy prices. However, aluminum alloy processing costs are significantly under pressure, and the production willingness of enterprises is suppressed. The procurement of industrial silicon raw materials is mainly based on on-demand procurement.

 

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, there was a slight increase in supply in May. Silicon factories expanded their operations due to the approaching flood season. Although silicon prices continued to decline and silicon factories actively weakened their operations, the overall supply still showed a growth trend; In terms of demand, the downstream of industrial silicon still faces significant pressure at present, and the entire polysilicon industry is facing loss pressure. Production reduction and maintenance operations continue, and demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloys is also weak to follow up. The market has not reversed, and downstream production pressure is negative feedback to industrial silicon. Overall, the supply and demand side of the metal silicon market in June may shift towards a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with fundamentals bearish on silicon prices. Although macro positive factors have led to an upward trend in futures trading, there is not much stimulation for spot prices, and downstream demand has not improved. It is expected that silicon prices in June may first decline and then stabilize, and then fluctuate to build a bottom.

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The market price of industrial grade calcium formate is weak and stable (5.24-5.29)

This week (5.24-5.29), the price of industrial grade calcium formate remained stable after falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of industrial grade 98% calcium formate in China was 3440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan/ton compared to May 22nd (reference price of calcium formate was 3540.00 yuan/ton).

 

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Supply side:

 

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the industrial grade 85% formic acid market experienced an overall decline in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol in the market rose and cost support increased, but demand support was weak. Downstream buying was flat, and inquiries and purchases were mainly in demand. Manufacturers accumulated inventory to promote transactions, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market declined. In the second half of the month, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, and cost support weakened from strong to weak. The supply side has sufficient supply of goods, but the demand follow-up is limited, resulting in a bearish supply and demand side. Enterprises are actively selling at a profit margin, and the formic acid market has stabilized after a decline.

 

Overall:

 

Business Society calcium formate analysts believe that the current industrial grade calcium formate market is facing severe sales pressure, and the market situation is showing a trend of profit giving operation. Against the backdrop of weak cost support, it is expected that the calcium formate market will continue to experience weak consolidation in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

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Weak demand, weak BOPA price this week

Price trend

 

Sodium Molybdate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPA market prices have been running steadily this week. As of May 28th, the mainstream quoted price for 15 μ m BOPA composite film by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 17366 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week’s average price and a 0.57% decrease from the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

quotations analysis

 

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PA6 has increased. The mainstream quoted price of PA6 by domestic producers and traders is around 14925.00 yuan/ton, which is 2.05% higher than the beginning of this month (14625.00 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PA6 has fluctuated and risen this week, with strong cost support.

 

In terms of supply: there is still a surplus in the inventory of membrane enterprises, and the pressure on the supply side is still there.

 

In terms of demand: Downstream procurement willingness is not high, and there is no significant improvement in the transaction atmosphere. Most orders are for essential stocking. Market demand has weak support for prices.

 

Future Market Forecast

The upstream raw material prices continue to rise, and the cost side gradually strengthens its support for the market; Downstream demand enterprises tend to have weak purchasing intentions, mostly replenishing goods for urgent needs, resulting in weak transactions; It is expected that BOPA prices will slightly increase in the near future.

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Macro impact, weak lead prices (5.20-5.27)

This week, the lead market (5.20-5.27) showed a fluctuating trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 18540 yuan/ton and this week at 18415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67%.

 

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

 

Macro: The latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve convey a hawkish attitude, suggesting that the possibility of future interest rate hikes still exists, leading to a strong rebound in the US dollar index. On Friday night, the US dollar index closed down 0.27%, ending the previous four consecutive gains. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released this week show a change in market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut, after the decline in inflation had led to widespread market expectations for a rate cut to be implemented in September.

 

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with many primary lead enterprises undergoing maintenance recently. The production of primary lead enterprises is low, and the supply of lead ingots is tight; Recently, the raw material procurement situation of recycled lead enterprises has improved, and the operating situation has increased compared to the previous period. The supply of recycled lead has improved, and the supply of lead ingots has improved compared to the previous period, but it is still tight.

 

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

 

Future outlook: The macro market performance has been weak in the near future, and lead prices have followed the downward trend of the overall market. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. Under the boost of supply tightness, lead prices will continue to maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the macro impact on market sentiment.

 

Industry data:

 

On May 26th, the base metal index was 1370 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 113.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

On May 26th, the non-ferrous index was 1250 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.73% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 105.93% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were antimony (5.57%), cobalt (4.59%), and zinc (1.76%). There are a total of 19 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were metal praseodymium (-6.51%), praseodymium oxide (-5.49%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-4.50%). The average increase and decrease this week is -1.64%.

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Aluminum oxide prices remain high and continue to steadily rise

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3806 yuan/ton, and on May 17th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to last week.

 

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In terms of cost

 

Although the policy for bauxite mining in Shanxi has been relaxed, the resumption of bauxite production is not optimistic, mainly due to the complex mining conditions in Shanxi. The instability of supply from overseas producers to two alumina plants in Queensland, Australia has intensified market concerns, further boosting the surge in alumina prices.

 

In terms of supply and demand

 

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The alumina market has a good trading enthusiasm and an active trading atmosphere. Downstream enterprises actively pursue high replenishment, which has driven a significant increase in spot trading volume. This week, the spot supply in the Shanxi market continued to be tight, with tight spot supply and frequent transactions between intermediaries. The demand for physical electrolytic aluminum replenishment is urgent.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

At present, alumina futures continue to fluctuate at high levels, and there are still a large number of alumina orders waiting to be shipped to the delivery warehouse of the previous exchange, continuing to squeeze the physical supply of electrolytic aluminum. The high alumina production period is expected to continue, and the comprehensive resumption of domestic bauxite production will have an impact on the adjustment of alumina prices.

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