According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall domestic adipic acid market has declined this week, with a drop of over 1%. On November 25th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On November 28th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

Negative leads to weak decline in adipic acid market

This week, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the lack of upward momentum in the cyclohexanone market caused by the upstream raw material pure benzene, and the sluggish demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition, the supply pressure of adipic acid has doubled, and negative factors have suppressed it. The weak downward trend of adipic acid market is the main reason, and the mainstream market price is 8200-8300 yuan/ton, with a weak downward trend.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in December, the bearish sentiment remains, and the adipic acid market will continue to weaken.

In November, the domestic phenol market rose more than fell. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7537 yuan/ton on November 1st and 7787 yuan/ton on November 30th, an increase of 3.32%.

In the first half of the month, social inventory was low, import and domestic shipping arrivals were insufficient, spot supply was tight, trading contract costs were high, and there was a strong sentiment of pushing prices high. Under the operation of pushing prices upwards, the terminal was passive in replenishing essential goods, and many small orders were followed up with transactions. The downstream factories have insufficient purchasing power, and the supply strategy is to offer discounts for shipment.

In the latter half of the year, Qingdao Bay and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the situation of tight cargo is expected to worsen. As a result, traders’ intention to push up prices is expected to increase, and the focus is steadily moving upwards. In the market’s favorable situation, factory quotations have also been raised multiple times to help. As prices continue to rise and the end of the month approaches, the pressure on contract customers to ship is not significant, and the room for concessions is limited, resulting in a weak market ending.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

In terms of supply, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port is 10000 tons, including 3000 tons in Hengyang and 7000 tons in Huaxi. In terms of equipment, Changchun Chemical’s 480000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance from October 10th to November 21st; Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down on November 1st, expected to last for one month; Lihua Yiwei Yuan Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance from November 1st to 7th; The phenol ketone plant in Qingdao Bay will be shut down from November 18th to 24th; Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down from November 19th to 27th.

From the perspective of demand, terminal enterprises mainly focus on buying for essential needs, and are cautious in pursuing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 7700-7800 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will be narrow and weak in December. In December, all domestic phenol ketone plants have been restarted, and there is no clear news of shutdown or negative load reduction. Supply expectations have increased, and the import shipping situation can be focused on during the month. The overall supply increase may have a bearish constraint on the market. It is expected that the phenol market will weaken in December, and considering costs and profits, the decline is not significant.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 20th to 27th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2549 yuan/ton to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.07%. The domestic methanol market continues to operate strongly, with some companies continuing to sell at high prices and transactions remaining acceptable.

As of the close on November 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2612 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2613 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2571 yuan/ton. It closed at 2583 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.81%. The trading volume was 739781 lots, the position was 682672 lots, and the daily increase was -62332 lots.

On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, the inventory of thermal power plants remains high, and there is no possibility of large-scale coal hoarding in the short term. Even a small amount of rigid demand cannot drive a sustained strong rebound in coal prices, and the weak demand side has led to a continued stalemate and instability in the market. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid will continue to increase; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. Most downstream products have increased their demand for methanol, which is influenced by favorable factors on the demand side.

On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 26th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 424.00-425.00 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Future forecast: In the near future, attention should be paid to the domestic and international gas restrictions, the shutdown of multiple sets of olefin plants due to load reduction, and the impact of macro news. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will strengthen and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in late November, the domestic formic acid market remained stable with an upward trend of 85%. As of November 25th, the average price of formic acid was 2850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from 2775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Raw material side: The raw material methanol is stable, moderate, and strong. Recently, some methanol enterprises have shut down their equipment for maintenance, resulting in more losses than recoveries and a decrease in capacity utilization. The favorable factors affecting the methanol supply side; In addition, some olefin plants still have plans to continue outsourcing methanol, and the supply and demand in the methanol market are still acceptable. Prices have been raised, but the increase is limited, which has limited support for formic acid.

Supply and demand side: Recently, the main manufacturers of formic acid have a high operating rate, and the market supply is loose. Formic acid downstream procurement on demand, with average enthusiasm. Both supply and demand sides have no favorable support for formic acid.

According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, there is currently sufficient supply of formic acid in the market, limited terminal demand, and no favorable factors. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to operate steadily at a low level, and specific trends still need to be monitored based on market information.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1981 yuan/ton, which is 0.13% lower than the reference average price of 1983 yuan/ton on November 18.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market price first suppressed and then rose, with a narrow adjustment in operation. As of November 22, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1780-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1820 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong region it is around 1965 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the urea market supply continued to increase this week, and there is currently a high inventory in the market. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is the main focus, with many low-priced transactions, and demand follow-up needs to be improved.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market in Shandong has seen a slight increase in recent days, while other regions are stabilizing. At present, the market supply is loose, the market transactions are still acceptable, and downstream buyers are cautious in following orders. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience weak price consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4180 yuan/ton. In early November, the DMF market price showed a step down trend, and the problem of oversupply in the DMF market became apparent. Operators were cautious and cautious, lacking confidence in the future market. Upstream methanol prices remained stagnant and consolidated, with high inventory pressure, which limited the support for DMF production.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: After November, the upstream methanol market of DMF continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the overall market operated in a volatile manner. Downstream demand for methanol continued to rise, and there was still pressure on methanol inventory. In November, methanol plants were newly put into operation, with 2.8 million tons in Inner Mongolia and 250000 tons in Shanxi. The new production was reflected around the end of November. Currently, manufacturers are actively shipping, and terminal demand is weak, resulting in a lack of follow-up mentality in the methanol market where price cutting procurement is the main focus.

In terms of demand, DMF has a wide range of downstream applications, with PU accounting for 54%. It is widely used in polyurethane coatings and synthetic leather, with the electronics industry accounting for 20% and the pharmaceutical industry accounting for 11%. Currently, the DMF market has a relatively sufficient supply, but with the rapid development of the domestic electronics industry, it will drive an increase in demand for high-purity DMF. The overall DMF market is currently in a state of oversupply.

Competitive landscape: DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, and domestic small capacity enterprises are gradually being eliminated. Currently, several well-known DMF enterprises in China have become the main force, and their competitive trend is mainly reflected in advanced production technology, stable product quality, etc. With the increase of environmental protection efforts, reducing pollutant emissions in the production process, improving resource utilization, and enhancing production efficiency, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.

In terms of inventory: DMF inventory remained relatively high in November, and enterprise installations began to operate one after another, resulting in an increase in market supply. Downstream demand did not meet expectations, with phased replenishment being the main focus. Demand performance was average, and there was pressure on enterprise inventory, with limited room for market price increases.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current average price of DMF in the market is around 4000-4100 yuan/ton. With the gradual operation of facilities, the market supply continues to increase, and downstream demand support is limited. Inventory remains at a high level, making it difficult to consume in a short period of time. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders. In the short term, the DMF market price trend will maintain a narrow and weak trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On November 11th, the market price of aniline was 9500 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the price was 9500 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, but it decreased by 25.49% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market has been consolidating and operating, with prices remaining stable. During the week, the upstream equipment load increased, the supply increased, and the downstream cautiously entered the market. The purchasing intensity weakened, and the on-site inventory trend increased, resulting in a weak overall market operation.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for aniline. On November 11th, the average price of pure benzene was 7161 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the average price of pure benzene was 7136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the cost support in the aniline market is average, with major aniline factories operating at full capacity and Tianji equipment restarting, and the supply side being dominated by negative factors. It is expected that aniline will decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent consolidation and operation of the MDI market has resulted in a mainstream quotation of 18300-18400 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) and 1840-18500 yuan/ton for domestic goods (PM200). Due to the impact of the typhoon, the output of large factories in the north is limited, and shipments are delayed. At the same time, some factories in Shanghai unexpectedly shut down, leading to extreme supply expectations. Downstream demand has entered the market, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate strongly in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market was mainly weakly consolidated this week. As of October 31, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price on October 28.

Supply side: The operating rate of maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the supply has increased; This week, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have declined, and the quotes from distributors have also fallen. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with new orders and urgent needs being the main focus. As of October 31st, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 5900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5600 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has fallen this week, and the n-butane market has also fallen. As of October 31st, the price in Shandong is around 5050-5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market remained stable this week, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. There is limited support for unsaturated resin, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The supply of maleic anhydride has increased, but the price of maleic anhydride has fallen to the annual low point, and some factories have no intention of continuing to lower their prices. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market operated at a high level in October. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 18116 yuan/ton to 18283 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year price increase of 16.58%.

In the first half of the month, the price of domestic aggregated MDI rose, and the supply of mainstream factories in China was tight. The on-site supply was tight, and suppliers were reluctant to sell at a higher price, while downstream buyers maintained their demand for essential goods.

In the middle and late months, the aggregated MDI market remained stable at a high level, with quiet news from suppliers and traders maintaining a stable shipping rhythm. New order follow-up was weak, slowly consolidating, and the market was operating at a high level of consolidation.

On the supply side, Wanhua Ningbo has been affected by abnormal equipment, resulting in partial shutdown of 1.2 million tons of MDI equipment and current low negative operation. Huntsman’s facilities in the United States and the Netherlands are currently operating at reduced loads, while other MDI factories at home and abroad are maintaining their original levels of equipment. The overall supply of MDI remains relatively stable.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: the focus of the domestic pure benzene market has shifted downwards. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7304 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has experienced a wide decline, and as of October 30th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9100 yuan/ton. Both pure benzene and aniline experienced significant declines, which had a significant negative impact on MDI.

On the demand side, downstream demand remains high and demand follows smoothly. The demand in the export market is relatively acceptable, but with internal stability and external strength, the aggregated MDI market is operating relatively strongly.

Future forecast: In October, with all the positive news on the news front and the constraint of cost decline, the supply side is weak in pushing up prices, and downstream market entry is cautious. Entering November, the peak consumption season has passed and demand has weakened. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will weaken in the short term.