Recently (4.12-4.22), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from 13620 yuan/ton on April 12. The high price of raw material butadiene continues to support the cost of butadiene rubber; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream tire production has remained stable, with on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber has mainly weakened and narrowed after a significant increase in the early stage.

Recently (4.12-4.22), the price of butadiene has been running at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 11700 yuan/ton on April 12.

Recently (4.12-4.22), the production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and as of now, the domestic production of butadiene rubber is around 5.9%.

Demand side: In the near future (4.12-4.22), downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, maintaining rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of mid April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.00%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to 7.1%; But the downstream has some resistance to high priced Shunding, stocking up on demand, and market transactions are flat.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the graph of Business Society’s butadiene rubber index shows that after the 7-day moving average crossed the 30 day moving average in early February, it was overall above the 30 day moving average, and during this period, the price of butadiene rubber increased significantly; At present, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average in mid April, and the 30 day moving average supports breaking levels. In the later stage, butadiene rubber may operate weakly.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support it; Some early stage equipment has recently restarted, and there are also some equipment plans for maintenance in the later stage. The expected start of production of butadiene rubber is expected to remain low; Although downstream tire companies are still operating at a relatively high level, their resistance to high priced sources of polybutadiene rubber has resulted in less than expected procurement efforts, putting pressure on the polybutadiene rubber market. Overall, the current polybutadiene rubber market may be weak in the future.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price increased by 5.41% this week, with an average market price of 97.5 yuan/ton. The weekend price decreased by 49.5% year-on-year.

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at an average level and low inventory. The manufacturer’s equipment remains stable, the price of acid production remains rigid and stable, and the sales are relatively active.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with expectations of an increase and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has recently stabilized at a high level. The price remained stable this week, with a market price of 1818 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

The price of new pentanediol is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9933.33 yuan/ton quoted on April 12th. The prices of raw materials have increased this week. The cost of new pentanediol has increased, and some manufacturers have raised their prices for new pentanediol. Downstream demand support is poor, and the market transactions for new pentanediol are limited, and the market transaction prices are temporarily stable.

Cost support, the price of new pentanediol factory rebounded and increased this week.

Raw material prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 19th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7212.50 yuan/ton on April 12th. The price of crude oil continues to rise, while the price of propylene, a raw material for isobutyraldehyde, fluctuates and rises. Downstream inventory of new pentanediol is depleted, and the demand support for the cost increase of isobutyraldehyde is limited. The driving force for the price increase of isobutyraldehyde is increasing.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% compared to the formaldehyde price of 1197.50 yuan/ton on April 12th. The upstream raw material methanol price has risen, the formaldehyde price is low, and the downward pressure on formaldehyde has weakened. The supply and demand fundamentals of the formaldehyde industry chain are relatively balanced, and the overall formaldehyde market is positive, with formaldehyde prices fluctuating and rising.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s new pentanediol products, in terms of cost, the prices of formaldehyde and isobutyraldehyde have fluctuated and increased, while the cost of new pentanediol has increased. In terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol are relatively balanced. Overall, the cost of new pentanediol is supported, and the upward momentum of new pentanediol is increasing. However, downstream demand support is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of new pentanediol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined since April. On the 16th, the market reported around 13320 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it reported around 13440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, fuel prices have risen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has risen. Currently, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly weak and consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has significantly increased. On April 16th, the price of loose water in the acrylonitrile market was 10375 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.14% from 9962.50 yuan/ton on the first day. As of April 16th, the mainstream price for self pickup of acrylonitrile in the market is between 10200 and 10500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost continues to support acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production remains low, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The supply of acrylonitrile units has slightly declined, providing some support for the acrylonitrile market.

Raw material acrylic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylic acid market is on the rise. As of April 16th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China is 6825.00 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has risen, and cost pressure has increased. Some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance, and spot prices are tight, supporting the market’s price mentality. The utilization rate of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity may slightly increase, and terminal consumption is expected to support stable demand.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic liquefied natural gas market rose in the first half of April. In some areas, maintenance of liquid plants has led to a decrease in market supply, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand.

Technical prediction: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, polyacrylamide will experience a downward trend after the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average after March 31, 2024. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 35.16%.

At present, the price monitoring of polyacrylamide is at a one-year low, two-year low, and three-year low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of polyacrylamide in the past three years is 15143.23 yuan/ton, with a median value of 15735 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 13220.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 18250.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 100 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (the highest price difference in the past three years) is -4930 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid will rise, fuel prices will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will rise. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production area was normal this week, and the market supply was sufficient; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that weak consolidation of polyacrylamide in China will be the main trend in the near future.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 15, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 8116 yuan/ton. Compared with April 8 (reference price for n-propanol was 7983 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (4.8-4.15), the overall domestic n-propanol market has experienced an upward trend, and the focus of negotiations in the n-propanol market is approaching a high level. From the end of the Silver Fourth month, the overall downstream demand for n-propanol has improved, with a mild trading atmosphere in the n-propanol field and an overall increase in downstream production. This has boosted the demand for raw materials and supported the upward trend of the n-propanol market on the demand side. As of April 15th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7600-8400 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in the Nanjing area is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-propanol market is mild, the mentality of the operators is good, and the new transactions of n-propanol are stable. According to the n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the overall stability of the domestic n-propanol market will continue to improve, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of new pentanediol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton on April 8th.

This week, the new pentanediol factory offered discounts on sales. The inventory of new pentanediol manufacturers was high, and downstream demand for new pentanediol weakened. The new pentanediol market transactions were poor, and there is still downward pressure on new pentanediol.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on April 8th. With the continuous rise of crude oil prices, the price of propylene, the raw material of isobutyraldehyde, has fluctuated and risen. Downstream inventories of new pentanediol are high, and the demand for isobutyraldehyde is weak due to the rising cost. The downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde prices has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1197.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the formaldehyde price of 1200 yuan/ton on April 8th. The upstream raw material methanol is short-term bearish, formaldehyde inventory is accumulating, and the pressure of formaldehyde decline is increasing, causing formaldehyde prices to fluctuate and fall.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst at Shengyishe believes that in terms of cost, formaldehyde prices have fluctuated and fallen, while isobutyraldehyde prices have fluctuated and fallen. The cost of new pentanediol has decreased, and isobutyraldehyde prices have rebounded and stabilized. In terms of raw materials, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; In terms of demand, there are many low-priced offers for new pentanediol, but actual transactions are relatively poor. On the supply side, the high inventory of new pentanediol manufacturers puts significant pressure on the decline of new pentanediol. In the future, the cost support for new pentanediol is increasing, and demand is weak. New pentanediol manufacturers have high inventories, and the supply of new pentanediol is sufficient. The expected price of new pentanediol in the future is expected to fluctuate and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 814 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price was 796 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.21%, a decrease of 11.56% compared to the same period last year. On April 11th, the chlor alkali index was 979 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.99% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 37.50% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 900-960 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 780-880 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 780-880 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda was weak, and downstream aluminum oxide spot trading activity was average. The demand for caustic soda was average, and there was a strong wait-and-see purchasing sentiment. The supply and demand game between upstream and downstream, and the price of caustic soda fluctuates.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are calcium carbide (0.56%); The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-3.05%), baking soda (-1.70%), and caustic soda (-0.19%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.63%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. As the purchasing prices of Shandong’s main downstream alumina enterprises decline, the purchasing willingness of downstream alumina is average. There is a high possibility that the spot price of caustic soda will stabilize. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda may slightly consolidate the operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall price center of nylon filament in the domestic market increased in the first quarter of 2024. The average market price of nylon filament POY (premium product; 86D/24F) in Jiangsu region this quarter was 16928 yuan/ton, an increase of 628 yuan/ton from the average price in the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 3.85%; The average market price of DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) is 19163 yuan/ton, an increase of 593 yuan/ton from the average price in the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 3.19%; The average market price of FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is 20142 yuan/ton, an increase of 568 yuan/ton compared to the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 2.90%.

Market trends

In January 2024, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon filament, was raised multiple times, causing a significant increase in the PA6 chip high-speed spinning chip market. In addition, the downstream market entered the stage of raw material replenishment, and the trading atmosphere on the market improved. Supported by multiple favorable factors, the price of nylon filament in the market was cautious and upward. As the Spring Festival approaches, the cost side trend is strong, and downstream pre holiday stocking has basically ended. Most downstream manufacturers stopped for vacation at the end of January, resulting in a slowdown in demand. Nylon filament manufacturers gradually reduced their load or stopped for vacation at the end of February, and the market gradually entered a vacation mode. Nylon filament market prices have remained stable. After the new year, the industry has good confidence in the future market, with strong price support sentiment. The upstream raw material prices have significantly increased, and the cost side support is strong, driving the high price of nylon filament market to rise. However, downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work relatively late, coupled with high raw material prices. Manufacturers lack the ability to accept high priced raw materials and mainly consume inventory. The demand side is constrained by the raw material market from bottom to top, and there is insufficient release of new orders on site. The market is looking for a warming atmosphere. In March, the supply of raw material caprolactam was sufficient, and the market continued to operate weakly, resulting in a significant drop in prices; The traditional peak season for textiles has seen lower than expected demand and continued to be weak, with on-demand procurement still being the main focus. Nylon manufacturers have seen an increase in production load and sufficient supply of goods, resulting in a prominent contradiction of oversupply. Affected by bullish and bearish factors, the nylon silk market continues to operate weakly, with insufficient confidence on the market and a broad decline in prices.

Supply and demand analysis

Supply side: The overall supply of nylon filament in the first quarter of 2024 decreased compared to the previous quarter. During the season, which coincides with the Spring Festival, most nylon filament manufacturers stopped for vacation in early February, and some manufacturers maintained low load operation of their equipment, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply; After the holiday, manufacturers have resumed work one after another, and on-site supply has returned to normal levels in early March. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is operating at around 85%.

Demand side: In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is good, and the business owners still have a bullish attitude towards the future market. Downstream manufacturers have a good pre holiday stocking mood, and some nylon filament manufacturers have orders as high as April; Returning after the holiday, terminal demand is weak, downstream markets resume work relatively late, coupled with high raw material prices pushing up, manufacturers have weak purchasing intentions, and they often replenish goods as needed, resulting in weak performance on the demand side. At present, the downstream market mainly consumes raw material inventory, and there is currently no significant improvement in the demand side.

market forecast

Raw material cost: In terms of caprolactam, the market supply is expected to increase, and downstream slicing markets may still purchase as needed. It is expected that the price center of caprolactam in the next quarter will shift downwards; In terms of PA6 slicing, the cost side prices are still in a downward trend, and downstream manufacturers are not willing to purchase. Business owners still hold a bearish attitude towards the future market, and it is expected that the PA6 slicing market will decline in the next quarter.

Supply side: Most manufacturers in the nylon filament market have stable equipment operation, and on-site production is at a high level. The overall supply performance of the market is abundant. In addition, there are plans to increase production capacity in Hubei in the next quarter, and some manufacturers in Fujian are expected to release all new production capacity in the next quarter. Therefore, it is expected that there will be an increase in market supply in the next quarter.

On the demand side: Currently, the downstream market demand is not as good as the same period last year, and the foreign trade market has not shown a significant improvement. Domestic demand is limited, and as the market demand off-season approaches, many businesses hold a pessimistic attitude. It is expected that the driving force from the demand side will still be weak in the next quarter.

Overall, the cost raw material caprolactam market and the PA6 chip market may continue to be weak, with a weak trend on the cost side. There may be an increase in on-site supply, and downstream markets have a certain degree of risk aversion. They purchase more on demand, and the market lacks positive news support. Therefore, it is expected that the price center of the nylon filament market will decline in the next quarter.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (4.1-4.8), with an average market price of 224960 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 228860 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 1.73%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Recently, the macro market trend has been relatively strong, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal market, with Shanghai Xilun Tin following the upward trend. This cycle coincided with the domestic Qingming Festival holiday, and the futures market only opened for four working days. The pre holiday trend was stable, moderate, and strong. During the Qingming Festival, London tin rose sharply, driving the Shanghai tin market to make up for losses after the holiday. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is currently little change in the operating rate of domestic refineries, and the overall domestic supply is relatively stable. In terms of imports, the recent import volume has been low, and the supply of tin ingots has not changed much. In terms of demand, tin prices have recently strengthened, and downstream industries have seen a decline in their willingness to receive goods. Even when tin prices were high, they still maintained a high demand for restocking. As prices continue to rise, downstream inquiries have shown lower intentions, and market trading has been relatively quiet. Overall, the photovoltaic industry has performed well recently, and the electronics industry is also expected to enter a seasonal peak season. The market is optimistic about demand expectations, but downstream purchases remain on demand due to the high tin prices. In the future, with the support of downstream and macro boost, it will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term. However, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry will decrease, and it is expected that the overall upward space in the future will be limited.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The current price remains unchanged compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. As of April 7th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1200 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated and stabilized, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream panel factories have continued to have poor demand, weak support for formaldehyde procurement, and production enterprises have no plans to reduce burden or stop production. The on-site supply has continued to rise, and the formaldehyde market has slightly declined.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations. Downstream olefin factories have reduced their purchases of methanol from mainland China, and the purchasing sentiment in the mainland market is also average, with a focus on maintaining essential procurement. Coal prices currently have no support for the market, and both mainland and port sources are showing an increasing trend. However, traditional downstream and MTO consumption levels are expected to weaken, and the supply-demand gap in the industry is further expanding. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

The recent fluctuations in raw material methanol prices are mainly due to the accumulation of formaldehyde inventory and a cold trading atmosphere on the exchange. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the recent decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong will be the main trend.