According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc price shocks remained stable in January. As of January 31, the price of zinc ingot was 22250.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan/ton, or 0.41 percent, from 22160.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In January, the zinc market struggled and zinc price shocks adjusted.
II. Market Trend Analysis
In terms of products:
In January, the price of zinc ingot in LME market rose sharply. As of January 31, the closing price of zinc in London LME market was 2724 US dollars/ton, which was 265 US dollars/ton higher than the opening price of zinc at the beginning of the month. The price of zinc in London LME market rose sharply, and the stock of zinc in futures fell sharply. As of January 31, the stock of zinc in London LME market was 113425 tons, which was 129 000 tons higher than that in the beginning of the month. Decreased inventories are good for the zinc market.
On January 31, the closing price of zinc futures in Shanghai futures market was 22,320 yuan/ton, which was 21,205 yuan/ton compared with the opening price at the beginning of the month. The price fluctuation of zinc futures rose by 1115 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of zinc futures rose in January, which had a positive impact on the spot zinc market. In January, the zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market increased substantially. As of January 31, the zinc futures inventory was 3339 tons, 881 tons higher than that in the initial month. Increase in the zinc market has a negative effect.
China’s output of refined zinc (electrolytic zinc) in December 2018 was 2% to 509,000 tons lower than last month, down 1.7% from the same period last month, and the total output in 2018 was 5681,000 tons, down 3.2% from the same period last month, according to data released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The production of zinc ingot in China is decreasing, which is good for the market of zinc.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business associations, believes that the global macroeconomic environment for the new year is not optimistic as the new year approaches. The global macroeconomic environment has warmed up, but the overall market performance is general. The zinc futures market has risen slightly, which is good for the spot zinc, but the overall zinc market is stable. On the demand side, the domestic zinc market is facing the stock of spring festival, which is good for the spot market of zinc. On the supply side, the supply of domestic zinc city will decrease in December 2018, which is good for zinc city. With the coming of spring festival, the quotation enterprises in the spot market are limited, the supply of zinc ingots in the market is limited, and the supply of zinc ingots in the market is better. Domestic zinc market has good stimulation in both supply and demand. In addition to the good stimulation of international zinc market, domestic zinc market has a small rise peak in the short term. However, in the long run, the global economic rebound in 2019 is not optimistic. The macro-economy has limited positive effect on zinc market, the rebound of zinc market is insufficient, and the space for zinc price to rise is limited. There is still room for zinc price to rise in February, but the trend of increase or maintain a low level. Bit, zinc ingot price or fluctuation adjustment between 2000 and 23500.