In June, the overall domestic calcium carbide market continued to decline, with a significant shift in price focus. The market was weak, trading was sluggish, and industry profits continued to shrink. The core reason is the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season, relatively abundant market supply, and the combination of supply and demand mismatch and multiple negative resonances, which have driven the continuous decline of calcium carbide prices since the beginning of the month without a significant rebound.

At the beginning of June, the domestic calcium carbide market quoted 2480 yuan/ton, which fell to 2380 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 4.03% during the month. The decline in core production areas is even greater. As an industry price indicator, Wuhai’s mainstream price at the end of the month was 2150 yuan/ton, a drop of 350 yuan/ton from the end of May, a decrease of more than 14%, and the price is approaching the low point of the year.
The overall price trend shows a steady decline, with prices falling rapidly in the first half of the year, narrowing the decline in the middle but continuing to be weak. In the second half of the year, the market rebounded slightly, and various regions across the country followed suit. The regional price difference gradually narrowed, and the overall market trend was uniformly weak.
Demand side: Downstream continues to be weak, with low purchasing willingness
PVC is the core downstream of calcium carbide. In June, the industry entered the traditional off-season for maintenance, and multiple devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates and a significant reduction in demand for calcium carbide. At the same time, the demand for PVC terminal building materials and pipes is sluggish, resulting in a backlog of finished product inventory and pressure on corporate profits, which continues to reduce production and burden, further dragging down upstream demand for calcium carbide.
Other downstream industries such as BDO also have loose supply and demand, with low operating rates, making it difficult to hedge the gap in PVC demand decline. Downstream enterprises generally purchase on demand and purchase as needed, without centralized stocking actions, resulting in overall low market trading activity.
Supply side: High production levels maintained, relatively abundant supply of goods
Compared to weak demand, the overall supply of calcium carbide was abundant in June. Although some companies have slightly reduced production due to losses, the industry’s operating base is relatively high, and the domestic calcium carbide furnace opening rate still reached 65.94% in the latter half of the year. Against the backdrop of a significant decline in demand, there is an overall oversupply of goods in the market, highlighting the pressure of supply and demand.
The continuous release of newly added production capacity in the early stage, the overall production capacity of the industry is sufficient, the export supply of supporting equipment has increased, and the market circulation supply is abundant, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and continuously suppressing the price of calcium carbide.
The new version of hazardous chemical safety regulations was implemented in June, and transportation supervision was significantly tightened, resulting in a contraction of market capacity and an increase in logistics costs. On the one hand, it continues to squeeze corporate profits, and on the other hand, it exacerbates the mismatch between regional supply and demand, hinders the flow of goods, further weakens market sentiment, and promotes the downward trend of the market.
From the perspective of Business Society, the weak pattern of the short-term calcium carbide market is difficult to change. In July, the PVC industry will experience a peak in centralized maintenance, and downstream demand will continue to weaken. However, there is currently no large-scale reduction plan for calcium carbide supply, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will continue, with prices likely to be under pressure. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a stage of adjustment characterized by overcapacity and weak demand. It needs to wait for downstream equipment to resume production and terminal demand to recover in order to repair the market. In the short term, the industry will maintain a low profit and weak oscillation operating trend.

The price of phthalic anhydride dropped in June

As of June 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8200 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.57% compared to the price of 8683.33 yuan/ton on June 1st. The US Iran agreement was reached, resulting in a significant drop in crude oil prices, which in turn led to a decrease in downstream benzene prices and costs. In addition, downstream demand for plasticizers collapsed during the off-season, leading to a dual bearish trend. Both ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, causing a volatile decline in the domestic phthalic anhydride market in June.
The phthalic anhydride market weakened and fell in June
The US and Iran reached an agreement, causing a sharp drop in international oil prices. The cost of crude oil → xylene → ortho benzene was transmitted, and Sinopec lowered the listing price of ortho xylene. The cost of ortho phthalic anhydride also decreased, and industrial naphthalene weakened simultaneously; DOP、 The two downstream industries of unsaturated resin are synchronously in the off-season, and the willingness of factories to replenish inventory is insufficient. Only about 50% of the production started in June, and the market transactions are sluggish; The neighboring method and naphthalene phthalic anhydride both fell simultaneously, with neighboring method continuing to suffer losses and naphthalene method experiencing a significant reduction in profits. The price center of gravity shifted downwards, reaching a stage low at the end of the month.
The cost support of phthalic anhydride has decreased
After the easing of the US Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated downwards, directly transmitted to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain: in June, the price of ortho xylene fell to 8200 yuan/ton, raw material prices dropped significantly, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased. Industrial naphthalene is weakening synchronously with the chemical industry, and the focus of raw materials is shifting downwards; The cost of the naphthalene method route is independent of crude oil, and the profit is lucrative. However, in June, with the decline in phthalic anhydride prices, the gross profit decreased significantly, maintaining a small profit margin. The downward pressure of naphthalene method phthalic anhydride is limited.
Low level supply of phthalic anhydride
On the supply side, due to severe losses, the enthusiasm of neighboring phthalic anhydride enterprises to start production is low, and some units operate or shut down at low loads for a long time. The overall operating rate of the industry is about 50%; Although naphthalene phthalic anhydride still has a meager profit, weak downstream demand has dragged down shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in equipment load and a slight decline in production. The overall factory inventory and port inventory remain low, with no large-scale accumulation of inventory; Downstream procurement is shrinking, and there is a relative surplus of spot goods in circulation.
Weak demand for phthalic anhydride
The traditional off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has reduced production to 50%; There has been no substantial improvement in demand for terminal real estate, building materials, and other fields. Downstream product factories adopt a “buy as you go, zero stock” approach and do not lock up raw materials in advance. They are extremely resistant to high prices of phthalic anhydride, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient. In addition, the continuous decline in downstream DO finished products has suppressed the decline in phthalic anhydride purchase prices. After the resumption of navigation in the strait, the international market price of phthalic anhydride fell, and China’s phthalic anhydride export orders contracted. The pressure of phthalic anhydride surplus increased, and the support for phthalic anhydride’s rise weakened.
post-market forecast
The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, on the cost side, crude oil and ortho xylene have significantly decreased, and the bottom support for phthalic anhydride costs has weakened, increasing downward pressure; Demand side: The traditional off-season for PVC soft products continues in July, making it difficult for DOP production to recover, and the demand for phthalic anhydride continues to be under pressure. Overall, it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will experience weak fluctuations and a downward trend in the future.

This week, the styrene market experienced a weak decline, with an average price of 7870 yuan/ton on June 22 and 7490 yuan/ton on June 26, a decrease of 1.83% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 8.26%.
Macro: On June 25th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, an increase of $1.58 or 2.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $75.50 per barrel, an increase of $1.63 or 2.2%.

Cost wise: The price of pure benzene has weakened and fallen. The geopolitical premium has fallen, oil prices continue to decline, and chemical costs have collapsed. At the same time, the market lacks confidence in the demand side, and the market sentiment tends to be pessimistic. Although there is still an expectation of destocking in the supply and demand of pure benzene in June. However, the early maintenance equipment in overseas markets has returned, and the tight supply situation has eased to some extent. However, some non integrated equipment varieties have fallen into losses, and negative demand feedback continues to drag down market sentiment.
Supply and demand side: Large scale maintenance facilities in China have been restarted one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded from a low level, with the operating rate increasing to around 70%. Terminal demand has entered the off-season, downstream finished product inventory digestion is slow, and the main downstream ABS and EPS production may decline, resulting in a weak overall supply and demand pattern.
Styrene external market: On June 25th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $15/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $985-995/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 970-980 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: Geopolitical premium will fall, costs will decrease, and styrene supply will tend to be loose. It is expected that styrene will have a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

On June 18th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1463 yuan/ton, which was 2.66% lower than the average market price of 1503 yuan/ton on June 12th.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has shown divergent trends, with coking grade ammonium sulfate prices slightly rising and domestic grade ammonium sulfate continuing to decline. The operating rate of internal level equipment has decreased, and the market supply has decreased. This week, the international urea market weakened, which indirectly bearish the ammonium sulfate market. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in domestic and international markets is weak, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. The export market needs to be released.
market situation
As of June 18th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1100 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1410-1470 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. At present, the market is dominated by negative factors, with a light trading atmosphere and a poor international urea market. It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate market will be weak and volatile.

The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5639 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 2.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.27%. The maintenance season runs parallel to the off-season of demand, and the supply-demand game in the ethanol industry continues. Ethanol factories in some regions have entered the maintenance season, leading to a temporary decrease in supply, which helps alleviate the current inventory pressure; However, at the same time, some downstream demand entered the off-season synchronously, and related devices also had shutdown plans, especially the demand for Baijiu continued to weaken. The short-term trend of ethanol market between regions will vary slightly.

On the cost side, corn prices are under significant pressure. On the one hand, wheat has become the main substitute for feed due to its price difference and nutritional advantages, while expired rice also provides a low-cost option; On the other hand, imported corn and barley serve as supplementary food sources, jointly occupying the feeding space of corn. Affected by this, the demand for corn is unlikely to significantly improve in the short term, and it is expected that the overall performance of the corn market will remain weak. The cost of ethanol is influenced by negative factors.
From the supply side, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the overall situation of oversupply in the ethanol industry in the short term. Affected by the factory entering the maintenance season and the gradual shutdown of equipment, the supply side has formed favorable support, and the short-term ethanol price in Northeast China is expected to remain stable. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, downstream side: The restart of the chemical ethyl acetate Yankuang plant failed, the Zhuhai Qianxin plant shut down, and other chemical urgent needs procurement. Demand for Baijiu declined. Downstream demand has shown weak performance. The demand for ethanol is influenced by negative factors.
In the future forecast, the Northeast region will enter a maintenance period, and terminal demand will continue to decline. The off-season demand will continue to affect the transaction price of ethanol. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the ethanol market may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend
On June 5th, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was 1503 yuan/ton, which was 5.05% lower than the average market price of 1583 yuan/ton on June 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market continued its weak trend and fell mainly. At the beginning of the week, the price of ammonium sulfate stabilized after falling. This week, the international urea market weakened, which indirectly bearish the ammonium sulfate market. The operating rate of internal level equipment has decreased this week, resulting in a decrease in market supply. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is weakening, the terminal demand is limited, and the export market is not good. Due to the previous continuous price increases, downstream procurement has become more cautious.
market situation
As of June 5th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1040 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 1430-1510 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the ammonium sulfate market is mainly downward. Due to the decrease in market transactions and the negative impact on international urea, ammonium sulfate is currently in a high position to compensate for the decline. It is expected that the short-term ammonium sulfate market will be weak and volatile.

Price reduction of ethylene glycol in May

The price of ethylene glycol will drop significantly in May 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the average price of the domestic oil to ethylene glycol market was 4770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.47% from the average price of 5155 yuan/ton on May 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 29th, the basis price of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) fluctuates with the market. Today’s spot contract basis price is within the range of+85 to+93. As of the close, the basis price of next week’s contract will be+102 to+107, and the basis price of June’s contract will be+123 to+125.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4030-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 29th, the negotiated landed price of Chinese ship cargo was around 578 US dollars/ton, and the negotiated landed price of Southeast Asian ship cargo was around 700 US dollars/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in May 2026:
On May 28, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 646000 tons, a decrease of 126400 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on April 30, which was 772400 tons; Compared to March 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 953000 tons, a decrease of 307000 tons in inventory.
Analysis of the reasons for the price reduction of ethylene glycol in May 2026:
The sharp drop in ethylene glycol prices in May 2026 is mainly due to the disappearance of geopolitical premiums, a sharp drop in crude oil prices, high domestic coal to gas production, off-season demand for polyester, and concentrated withdrawal of funds, forming a negative feedback of “cost collapse supply increase demand weakness”.
1、 Cost end: Middle East easing&crude oil plummeting&geographical premium “squeezing foam”
The main reason for the rise in ethylene glycol in April was the US Iran conflict, the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, market hoarding, and the push up of the “geopolitical risk premium”. In May, things took a turning point as negotiations between the US and Iran resumed, expectations for reconciliation increased, expectations for cross-strait navigation resumed, and conflict premiums quickly dissipated. On the cost side, oil prices plummeted, with Brent falling from $115/barrel (early May) to $99-105/barrel (mid to late May), and the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil collapsing.
2、 Supply side: High domestic production and revised import expectations, pressure exceeds expectations
The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China in May was between 58% and 68%; Among them, 68% – 82% (high level) is made of coal and 54% is made of oil. On the import side, the Middle East equipment is undergoing maintenance, and the expected arrival in May and June has declined. However, there is still a surplus of short-term arrivals, and the “import reduction” has been priced in advance, without forming an immediate gap.
3、 Demand side: Polyester off-season+terminal weakness, negative feedback, continuous fermentation
The average production of polyester in May was 75% -77%, a year-on-year decrease of 3-5 points, and the reduction in production of long and short fibers increased. From the perspective of terminal demand, textile and clothing exports are weak, while domestic demand is weak; The sluggish real estate market has dragged down the demand for building materials/home appliances, indirectly suppressing the demand for polyester. The raw material inventory of the polyester factory is only 7.5 days (the lowest in the past three years), maintaining only basic needs and weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Terminal weakness → high polyester inventory → negative load reduction → reduced ethylene glycol procurement → price drop → further suppression of inventory replenishment, negative feedback continues to ferment.

4、 Funds and Emotions: Strong US Dollar, Expectations Turn Short, Funds Concentrate and Leave the Market
The settlement news in May triggered a concentrated stop loss, causing futures to continuously increase volume and plummet, driving spot prices to follow suit.
June 2026 ethylene glycol price forecast:
The operating trend of ethylene glycol prices in June is likely to be “weak at first and then stable, with a narrow range of fluctuations”, and it is difficult to see a significant drop or rise. The central spot price at the port is about 4400 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

The price of caustic soda is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 628 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.94%. On May 28th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 748 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.85% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 5.80% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this month. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 560-650 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, and the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market is around 850-900 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2000-2050 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). In May, the caustic soda enterprise underwent maintenance, but due to the large inventory of caustic soda, it was not obvious for the enterprise to clear the inventory. In terms of downstream demand, the terminal orders of industries such as printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, and water treatment are poor, and market demand continues to be weak. Downstream enterprises tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and a low price wait-and-see attitude, resulting in insufficient demand and only maintaining rigid procurement, leading to low transaction activity. Enterprise shipments are generally average.
Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has been weak and the domestic downstream market has been purchasing on demand, and there has been no substantial improvement in demand. Caustic soda enterprises still face significant inventory pressure and downstream resistance. In June, the industry maintenance is still intensive, but the early shutdown enterprises have started construction, and there is no particularly favorable supply situation. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

I

n May 2026, the domestic sulfuric acid market continued to rise, with prices continuing to rise and overall operating at a high level for the year. As of the end of May, the mainstream transaction price of 98% concentrated sulfuric acid in China was concentrated between 1800-2100 yuan/ton, and the average price continued to rise during the month, reaching a new high in the same period in nearly three years. Although downstream phosphate fertilizer has entered the traditional off-season of demand, the overall market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, with a clear pattern of unilateral upward movement supported by the double benefits of skyrocketing raw material costs and tightening on-site supply.
Firstly, the soaring prices of raw materials have provided strong cost support
Sulfur is the main raw material for sulfuric acid production, and the spot price of sulfur at ports has continued to soar this month, stabilizing above 7000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with high pressure on raw material costs. Synchronized with the upward trend is the price of pyrite raw materials. Mainstream sulfur based sulfuric acid production enterprises continue to suffer losses, and acid plants have a strong willingness to raise prices, with no room for price reduction, supporting the continuous rise of acid prices from the source.
Secondly, centralized maintenance of equipment and tightening of market supply
In May and June, large-scale acid production facilities in many regions of China underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of goods in the main production areas of East China, Central China, and Northwest China. Although sulfuric acid exports have been suspended since May and some of the exported goods have returned to China, the increase in return is far less than the shortage of goods caused by maintenance. The industry as a whole maintains a tight supply balance, coupled with a low overall operating rate, further boosting the market.
Finally, the demand for new energy has weakened the bearish sentiment of the season
After the end of spring plowing, the demand for phosphate fertilizer fell sharply, and the downstream of traditional fertilizers dragged down the market trend. However, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in the new energy sector remains high, while downstream fine chemicals such as titanium dioxide and fluorine chemicals maintain stable replenishment, effectively offsetting the negative impact of declining fertilizer demand during the off-season and supporting the stability of sulfuric acid demand fundamentals.
Situation in major mainstream regions in China:
East China, Central China, and Northeast China: With concentrated equipment maintenance, scarce supply of goods, and cost support, regional prices continue to rise, and the market is the strongest.
Southwest and Northwest regions: Low demand for phosphate fertilizers, slight accumulation of inventory by manufacturers, and slight price reductions and destocking by local acid companies, resulting in weak prices.
South China: Market polarization, Guangxi’s prices are weak due to the impact of low-priced goods from other provinces, and Guangdong’s maintenance support maintains high prices.
In the short term, the sulfuric acid market remained high and firm in June, with a regional differentiation pattern. The tight situation of raw material sulfur is difficult to alleviate quickly, and coupled with the fact that the maintenance units next month have not yet resumed production, the supply gap continues to exist; The downstream is still dominated by the off-season for phosphate fertilizers and the basic demand for new energy. Overall, there is still room for short-term acid prices to rise, and only weak demand areas such as the southwest are unlikely to see a significant increase in prices. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the arrival volume of imported sulfur at ports and the progress of domestic plant resumption, as these two variables will determine the turning point of the market.
The sulfuric acid market strengthened against the trend in May, driven by high raw material costs, tightening supply sources, and weak demand in downstream demand for new energy. At present, cost remains the core factor driving the market trend, and it is difficult to reverse the high-level operation of the sulfuric acid market in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12833 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12833/ton, which is stable.

Domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers have maintained stable prices this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal based activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. Coconut shell supply in Southeast Asia is normal, and the impact of new maritime regulations (dangerous goods declaration) has weakened. The high price of imported carbonized materials has fallen, easing cost pressure.
The price of imported coconut shell carbonization materials is temporarily stable, but the increase in rainfall in the Philippines and Indonesia may affect the material collection and cost issues. Domestic charcoal factories have a large inventory and need some time to digest it. Recently, the purchasing willingness has been low, and the decline in the coal based activated carbon market has decreased, but the rise has not covered the entire market. It has remained stable in the near future.
Prediction: There is a large inventory of coconut shell activated carbon in China, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.