I. price trend
This week (11.11-11.15) the market of domestic butadiene fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of domestic butadiene at the beginning of the week was 8670 yuan / ton, and that of domestic butadiene at the end of the week was 8790 yuan / ton, up 1.38% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell by 22.86% month on month and 12.68% year on year.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Products: this week (11.11-11.15), the domestic butadiene market was weak and downward, the early domestic device parking news drove the market higher, but the external market continued to be weak, and the downstream real order follow-up was limited, the good news was digested in the week, the market weak and downward. In the near future, there is abundant supply of foreign cargo. In January, the turnover of cargo sources is low. Meanwhile, the supply of spot goods in the north is relatively abundant. The market turns downward, leading to cautious inquiry in the downstream. The market turnover continues to be low, further dragging the market down. As of Thursday, the delivery price of superior products in Shandong Province was 8550-8600 yuan / ton, a drop of about 1000 yuan on a month on month basis; the offer of superior products in East China was relatively chaotic, with the mainstream price reference of 9100 yuan / ton, a drop of 500 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the downstream inquiry intention was low, and sporadic lower prices were also heard.
In terms of enterprises: Sinopec East China butadiene supply price is stable at 8900 yuan / ton; Liaotong chemical butadiene is priced at 9010 yuan / ton on Monday for export, about 200 tons, and 8510 yuan / ton on Thursday for export; Fushun Petrochemical butadiene plant is shut down for small inspection from September to December, and it is now restarted for export, and there is no supply for export; Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 135000 ton / year butadiene plant is temporarily shut down from November 1 to November 12 Before the restart of operation; Zhenhai Refining and chemical butadiene plant on November 12-15, short-term stop for small inspection; external market continued to decline, as of 13, CFR China closed at $880 / ton, down $90 / ton on last week, and heard that January cargo had lower prices.
Industrial chain: in terms of downstream synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber. This week, the factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber rose slightly, the market’s offer center moved up, and the transaction atmosphere was slightly stalemate. During the period, the continuous decline of the external market price of butadiene in Asia has an impact on the market mentality, but the spot resources of SBR of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical are tight, Sinopec and some sales companies of PetroChina have limited market volume, and the price of Tianjiao is slightly higher, which has a certain boosting effect on the trend of SBR. In the last cycle, some merchants made up empty orders and terminal enterprises just needed to make up goods, which disappeared after entering this week. The downstream buying tends to follow the use and purchase, and the overall trading atmosphere is stagnant. As of the closing, the mainstream price of Qilu 1502 in Shandong today is 10950-11000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of Fushun 1502 in East China market is 10800 yuan / ton.
The influence of SBR on butadiene: the domestic SBR market will be shaken next week and the falling pressure materials will gradually appear. China’s two private enterprises want to purchase 260000 tons of rubber from Thailand to give Tianjiao a favorable stimulus, and the high price has boosted the synthetic rubber; the overall increase of supply in the domestic butadiene market, coupled with the continuous decline in external prices, will make the decline of butadiene hard to change next week, and the cost side is a negative guide. The operating rate of styrene butadiene production unit is acceptable, and the supply depends on whether the mainstream sales companies control the quantity; the north is in the heating season, with large economic environment deviation, and it is difficult for the tire and rubber products enterprises to improve the way of using and mining.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this period, the factory price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly, the market range was volatile, and the trading follow-up was relatively general. At the beginning of this cycle, in view of the high cost and price, and the relatively limited issuance of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, the speculation atmosphere is gradually rising, the market offer is higher, the price increase of the operators is enlarged, and the ex factory supply price of cis-4-polybutadiene is rising. At the end of the week, the external price of butadiene fell sharply, its domestic market also weakened and consolidated, the downstream wait-and-see mood intensified, and the purchase bias price attitude, there were some low drag, and the market price of Shunding fell slightly. Until now, some brands have not opened orders smoothly in Shunding, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry has intensified. Only tentative offers have been made for shipment. The inquiry and transaction atmosphere are not as good as that of butylbenzene, which tends to be slightly stalemate. As of the receipt of the draft, Sinopec’s factory price is 10800 yuan / ton for Qilu Shunding in North China and 10900-11000 yuan / ton for Qilu Shunding market in Shandong. The above prices are for reference only.
The influence of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber on butadiene: the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market will be mainly consolidated next week. In terms of the spot price difference, Shanghai Rubber Company’s performance is up, and the message side support exists; in terms of the cost side, the price of raw material butadiene is low, and the domestic market is also down, and there are still downward expectations in the future, and the cost side is short; in terms of the supply side, Jinzhou Shunding device is expected to restart, and some private spot replenishment is expected to alleviate the current tight supply situation of some brands of Shunding; On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream tires rose slightly, but there was no sign of improvement in the purchase of synthetic rubber, and most of them continued to purchase just needed and kept prices down.
III. future forecast
On the positive side, the start-up of synthetic rubber industry has not declined significantly temporarily; there is rigid demand in the downstream. On the negative side, the supply of goods in the far month is abundant and the price is low, the supply of goods in the north is abundant, and the mentality of the downstream is short. With the restart of Fushun, Huayu and other devices and the overall increase of market supply, the supply and demand fundamentals of the short-term domestic butadiene market are difficult to have a significant positive support; in addition, there are many lower transaction prices in the external market, which continue to drag the domestic market. Considering the overall situation, the butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market will be hard to change next week. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest prices of the internal and external market Criteria and transaction guidance.