According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April, the domestic market price of polyester filament showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester fdy150d / 96F and polyester fdy150d / 96F in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported as 4900-5050 yuan / ton, 6400-6900 yuan / ton and 5550-5600 yuan / ton respectively. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of crude oil cooperation and production reduction, the raw material market was strongly supported, the market speculative bottom reading and replenishment market appeared, the volume of transactions of polyester filament products was large, and the price rose slightly, but with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market transaction atmosphere fell, and the price began to fall on April 10, among which polyester POY declined significantly, as of the 27th, polyester POY (150D / 48F) market The average price is 4944 yuan / ton, down 7.83% compared with that of the 10th day.
Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton
Product: April 10, 2020 April 27, up and down April, up and down year on year
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5364 4944 – 7.83% 1.02% – 43.97%
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5905 5565 – 5.76% 5.60% – 39.62%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7176 6801 – 5.23% – 3.10% – 34.49%
At the raw material end, the crude oil plummeted, the market mentality was frustrated, and the energy sector sentiment was depressed. Although the recent price has stopped falling and picked up, it still maintains a relatively low trend. The global crude oil demand has been sharply reduced, but the supply end is still showing an increasing trend. Under the pressure of storage capacity, the market fundamentals are still weak. In March, affected by the weak domestic demand, PTA factory inventory pressure is large, domestic PTA production enterprises have to repair and stop production, PTA operation rate fell to 69% in the middle and late March. With the end of the maintenance period and the impact of crude oil weakening, the decline of chemicals closer to the upstream is more and more big. Under the benefit of naphtha and PX, the PTA processing fee once rose to 805 yuan / ton last week. Under such a high processing fee level, the production enthusiasm of PTA plant is very high, which leads to the recent PTA operation rate has been at the level of more than 90%, significantly higher than the same period of previous years. At the same time, the demand side has not improved significantly, so PTA is still in the obvious accumulation in the whole April. Up to now, PTA social inventory is 3.35 million tons. It should be noted that with the continuous production of new devices, the PTA capacity in China has reached 52.255 million tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the previous capacity base, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.
Statistics of recent PTA plant changes
Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit
Ningbo Yisheng 200 stopped short on April 20 and has now returned to normal operation
Ningbo Yisheng 220 postponed maintenance to May
Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to stop for maintenance from May 6, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days
Tianjin Petrochemical 34 was overhauled on April 17, with a planned overhaul period of 1 month
Hanbang Petrochemical 60 failed to stop on April 17, and has been restarted
Yadong Petrochemical will stop for maintenance from April 25, and restart on April 29
Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July
Jialong Petrochemical 60 stopped for maintenance on August 2, and the restart time is to be determined
The downstream weaving industry is in a downturn. At present, the trading volume of light textile city is significantly lower than that of the same period in recent years, and the market trading is light. From the perspective of the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 26, the comprehensive operating rate was 48.00%. In the face of the coming May Day holiday, some enterprises have begun to take holidays. At the same time, due to the impact of this public health event, the export orders of weaving foreign trade were cancelled or postponed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, the cumulative export amount of China’s textiles and clothing was 45.26 billion US dollars, down 17.7% compared with the same period of last year, including 22.69 billion US dollars for textiles, down 14.6% compared with the same period of last year, and 22.57 billion US dollars for clothing, down 20.6% compared with the same period of last year.
Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that due to the impact of crude oil decline, the cost center of gravity has shifted down, PTA has continued to accumulate the pressure of storage, and there is no turning point to go to storage, high inventory or become the normal state of PTA, and the current PTA fundamentals are not well boosted. The downstream terminal weaving foreign trade order is missing, the domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and near the May Day holiday, some weaving enterprises have plans to stop work in advance for the holiday, there are negative expectations. Affected by upstream and downstream drag, polyester filament market is expected to be weak in the short term.