The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the DOP price was 9375.83 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 21.75% compared to the DOP price of 7700.84 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has increased, with the operating rate rising to around 65% and DOP production increasing; The escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which have rapidly spread downstream along the industry chain. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have also risen sharply, as have raw material prices, DOP costs, and plasticizer DOP prices.
The price of raw material isooctanol has significantly increased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the price of isooctanol was 9050 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 35.75% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, and the operating load of their facilities is maintained at around 9.5%, indicating sufficient supply of isooctanol. The escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to a surge in crude oil prices that has been transmitted downstream, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices, rising costs of plasticizers, and increased support for DOP increases.
The phthalic anhydride market has seen a significant increase
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7466.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 21.41% compared to the price of 6150 yuan/ton on March 1st. Affected by the intensified geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, crude oil prices have surged, transmitted downstream, and the price of raw material ortho benzene has skyrocketed to 10700 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of phthalic anhydride. The price of phthalic anhydride has surged, the cost of plasticizers has increased, and the support for the rise in plasticizers has increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has led to a surge in crude oil prices, which has been transmitted downstream. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have also surged, resulting in an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. In the future, with the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, high crude oil prices, rising downstream costs, and an increase in supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will rise significantly in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has continued to rise this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 7890 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 8910 yuan/ton, with a 12.93% increase during the week.

Macro: On March 5th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.01 per barrel, an increase of $6.35 or 8.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May was $85.41 per barrel, an increase of $4.01 or 4.9%. The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to supply and transportation disruptions, forcing major producers to reduce production.
On the cost side: Due to the impact of the Middle East war on oil and gas production and supply, international oil prices continue to soar sharply, and the listing prices of pure benzene main refineries have been raised multiple times. Holders of goods are reluctant to sell at low prices, and in the short term, pure benzene may continue to follow the rise of crude oil prices.
Supply and demand side: There will be a lot of maintenance for styrene in March, and it is expected that the supply will shrink. The downstream has basically resumed work, and under high costs, the demand increment is limited.
Styrene external market: On March 5th, the closing price of styrene market in Asia increased by $70/ton, with a closing price of $1115-1125/ton FOB Korea and $1115-1125/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: In the short term, with high raw material prices and supply contraction, it is expected that the styrene market will further rise.

The price of plasticizer DOP has significantly increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 2nd, the DOP price was 7800.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.30% compared to the DOP price of 7700.84 yuan/ton on March 1st. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises has decreased, with an operating rate of about 57-60% and a decrease in DOP production; Due to the geopolitical impact in the Middle East, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose on March 2nd, while raw material prices increased and DOP costs rose. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased.
Raw material isooctanol prices rebound and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 2nd, the price of isooctanol was 6833.33 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 2.50% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, and the operating load of their facilities is maintained at around 9.5%, indicating sufficient supply of isooctanol. Due to the geopolitical impact in the Middle East, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose on March 2nd, causing an increase in the cost of plasticizers and increasing support for DOP.
Phthalic anhydride market rebounds and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 2nd, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6383.33 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 3.79% compared to the price of 6150 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to February 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 2.24% to 6243.33 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, crude oil prices have surged, raw material prices of ortho benzene have increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen. The price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, and the cost of plasticizers has increased. The support for the rise in plasticizers has increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, due to the influence of Middle Eastern geopolitical factors, the price of isooctanol has significantly increased, the price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased. In the future, with rising costs and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen this month. On February 1st, the price was 6168.67 yuan/ton; On February 28th, the price was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: There was a slight fluctuation in the price range of the domestic pure benzene market today. International crude oil futures have risen, while the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has fluctuated. The confidence in the domestic pure benzene market is average. Shandong pure benzene ground refining has poor shipments, and some manufacturers have slightly lowered their shipping prices. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China has remained stable at 6150 yuan/ton, to be implemented on January 30th. It is expected that the pure benzene market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term.
This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec remained stable at 6150 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On February 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $67.02 per barrel, an increase of $1.81 or 2.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May was $72.87 per barrel, an increase of $2.03 or 2.9%.
Foreign pure benzene: On February 27th, FOB Korea fell 9 to 773 US dollars/ton, and CFR China fell 7 to 777 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam has stabilized at $889 per ton, while FOB USG has increased by 5 to 304 cents per gallon.
Overall forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

Market Overview: Flash Crash and Restoration

After the Spring Festival, the dichloromethane market in Shandong experienced a sharp price drop, with a daily decline of up to 7.11%. It then quickly stabilized and rebounded continuously in the later part of the week, completing a rapid price reduction, inventory allocation, and price repair.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 1720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.77% compared to before the Spring Festival.
Supply side: High inventory is one of the core causes of the market crash after the Spring Festival
During the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed normal production but logistics were suspended, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. After the resumption of work after the holiday, inventory pressure was concentrated and released. Most production enterprises chose to actively reduce prices and reduce inventory, directly leading to a daily decline of over 7%. When low-priced goods quickly digest inventory, inventory pressure is relieved, and the enterprise’s pricing sentiment is heated up, the quotation gradually tentatively increases. Part of the main equipment in Shandong has been restored, and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to around 80%.
Demand side: Triple factor resonance, concentrated release of bottom fishing demand
Post holiday stock replenishment: Downstream factories and traders gradually resume work and production after the Spring Festival, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment.
Bottom fishing mentality: After the price fell to a low point this year, it greatly stimulated the stocking willingness of intermediaries and some downstream users, significantly increased market trading volume, and formed an effective pallet force.
Export support: The stable execution of overseas orders also provides an important channel for digesting domestic surplus production, accelerating the process of inventory depletion.
Cost side: Weakening bottom support to make room for price
Liquid chlorine: Inventory in some areas of the Shandong liquid chlorine market remains high, and downstream production has not fully recovered yet. The trend of the liquid chlorine market has declined, and the ex factory price of tank trucks has fallen below 1 yuan/ton. The collapse of liquid chlorine prices has directly weakened the bottom line of cost support for methane chloride enterprises, providing space for enterprises to lower prices and make concessions.
Methanol: The sentiment in the methanol market is weak, with high supply pressure and cautious downstream delivery, resulting in short-term pressure on the market. On February 27th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2185.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% compared to before the Spring Festival, and the impact on the cost of dichloromethane was relatively limited.
Future outlook:
The current market is in a game stage of “low inventory, recovery of essential demand, and weak cost”. With the full resumption of downstream construction after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, demand is expected to continue to release smoothly. It is expected that the dichloromethane market in Shandong will maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term. However, in the absence of strong support from the cost side, the potential for rebound in the future requires close attention to the downstream’s response to the current price increase and the inventory changes of major manufacturers.

1、 Market Overview:

This week, the melamine market showed a stable and positive trend. As of February 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society has risen to 5750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% from the beginning of this month, successfully breaking through the integer threshold of 5750 yuan. The synchronous recovery of the spot market reflects the improvement of regional transactions. This round of increase is mainly driven by downstream replenishment demand after the holiday, but the deep game in the market is still fierce.
2、 Cost side:
The price of raw material urea has strengthened from weak to strong, significantly increasing the cost support for melamine. With the start of spring plowing and fertilizer preparation, the release of policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and the boost in export expectations, urea prices have clearly increased. As of February 26th, the benchmark price has risen to 1830.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% from the beginning of the month. This means that the current price increase of melamine has the dual support of “cost driven” and “demand driven”, which is different from the previous pattern driven solely by demand. However, the inventory of urea companies is still at a high level of 1.176 million tons, and the pressure of accumulated inventory limits their price surge space. Therefore, the cost support for melamine still needs to be dynamically observed.
3、 Supply side:
The supply side exhibits a dual characteristic of “short-term order and long-term pressure”.
Short term: In early February, the industry’s capacity utilization rate was about 57.95%, and some companies had tight supply of goods, so there was no significant pressure to acquire orders at the moment.
Long term: The key variable is that the 120000 ton annual production facility of Xinjiang New Hebei Energy has been successfully put into operation on February 12th, and the new production capacity has officially entered the market. This will gradually increase market supply and intensify industry competition.
Fundamental: The long-term overcapacity pattern in the industry has not changed, and any short-term demand driven increase may be suppressed by sufficient supply capacity.
4、 Demand side:
Downstream demand shows a seasonal rebound. After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, there is a demand for replenishment in industries such as sheet metal, which provides short-term driving force for the market. But the demand is moderate, downstream purchases are mostly on demand, and there has not been large-scale centralized procurement yet. The export market is also stable. This round of demand is supported by a “short-term window period” rather than a strong trend recovery.
5、 Future prospects
Overall, the current market belongs to a short-term demand driven upward trend, and in the context of long-term overcapacity, the upward space will be suppressed. It is expected that the market will remain stable with strong fluctuations in the short term. If demand support weakens in the future and supply increases, the market may face downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling at a high level recently. As of February 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 136000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% compared to the same period last week (February 2nd), a decrease of 2.86% month on month, and an increase of 71.7% year-on-year.

Supply side: Expectations of loose imports continue to rise
As the Spring Festival approaches, some lithium salt factories are scheduled for maintenance or holidays, resulting in an expected month on month decrease of 16.4% to 82000 tons of domestic lithium carbonate production in February. However, Sigma lithium mine in Brazil resumed production ahead of schedule, and lithium salt exports in Chile increased by 44.82% to 16950 tons in January, causing concerns in the market about short-term supply pressure. Although the increase in such supply is mostly in the form of pulse shipments and not a trend change, it still further suppresses prices in the fragile market sentiment. At the same time, domestic lithium salt factories have abundant raw material inventory, and their willingness to stock up in the long term has increased. Although traders have a strong willingness to raise prices, the market has formed a consensus on the expectation of oversupply, further exacerbating downward pressure on prices.
Demand side: Short term seasonal contraction
During the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market of lithium carbonate entered the traditional off-season for consumption, and demand showed a phased contraction trend. The production schedule of downstream positive electrode material enterprises has been affected by holiday shutdowns and equipment maintenance, with a month on month decline of 10-15%. Among them, the operating rate of ternary materials has significantly decreased, while lithium iron phosphate has benefited from the support of energy storage demand and remained relatively stable, but the production schedule of top enterprises in February still decreased by 17% month on month. At the same time, downstream enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking, and downstream inventory has sharply increased in the past two weeks. Most enterprises have covered the demand in February, and some have even stocked up in advance until early March. The replenishment behavior in the past two days has basically ended, and procurement demand has slowed down significantly in the short term, with only a small amount of essential replenishment, which is difficult to form effective support for prices. In addition, the periodic replenishment that occurs when prices fall sharply (such as the replenishment of about 10000 tons on the day of the limit down on February 5th) is mostly a short-term behavior of downstream bargain hunting, rather than a trend driven demand recovery, and cannot change the pattern of weak short-term demand.
The turbulence in the futures market intensifies, and panic accelerates the downward trend of prices
The sharp drop in futures prices has triggered panic in the spot market, causing traders to completely break their price mentality and significantly increase their willingness to ship. In order to avoid the risk of further price declines, some traders have chosen to sell their inventory at low prices, further lowering spot prices; However, downstream enterprises take advantage of the opportunity of price decline to delay procurement, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the spot market. The excessive focus of funds on short-term supply growth and weak demand has further strengthened bearish sentiment, leading to price declines that exceed the actual fundamentals. Panic selling has become an important force driving down prices.
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate, multiple factors are resonating to cause a decline in lithium carbonate. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand will continue to be in the off-season, and the recovery of futures market sentiment will take time. Lithium carbonate prices still face certain downward pressure, but in the long run, the long-term growth certainty of the downstream new energy industry is strong, and the demand for lithium carbonate will steadily increase.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12883 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12933/ton, with a price increase of 0.39%.

The prices of domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers have risen this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 yuan/ton is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. Since January, coconut shell carbonization materials have been included in the new regulations for dangerous goods, and the import of raw materials has been greatly affected, resulting in a significant decrease in supply. Coconut shell charcoal enterprises in various production areas in China have been greatly affected by the shortage of raw materials.
The main coconut producing countries in Southeast Asia have been affected by natural disasters, policy adjustments, and other factors, resulting in a shortage of coconut shell carbonization materials and a rise in coconut shell charcoal prices. Coconut shell activated carbon has a strong demand in fields such as water treatment, air purification, and sodium ion batteries. In addition, the extended shipping cycle, increased storage and environmental requirements have pushed up import costs, which is favorable for supporting price increases.
Prediction: Due to the tight supply of coconut shell activated carbon raw materials and increased costs in China, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been continuously declining since January, with prices continuously hitting the bottom and falling to early February. At the beginning of January, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 776 yuan/ton. On February 2nd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.88%.
Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market, continuous decline
After New Year’s Day, the market for hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam was mainly consolidated, and the demand in the printing and papermaking industry was sluggish. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide was average, and it was purchased on demand and used as needed. The operating rate of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is relatively high, and the market supply of hydrogen peroxide is sufficient. The supply pressure has doubled, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to be sluggish, with prices falling to around 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton.
In early February, as the Spring Festival approaches and terminal rigid demand weakens, manufacturers lack confidence in raising prices and have lowered the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to be weak, with the average market price falling to 500-700 yuan/ton and an overall decline of 50-100 yuan/ton.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that weak terminal demand and loose market supply will put pressure on the hydrogen peroxide market to rise in the future, with a weak downward trend being the main factor.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China fluctuated narrowly this week. As of January 30th, the average market price in East China was 14166 yuan/ton, and on January 26th, the average price was 14100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 1.19%.
The TDI market maintained its upward trend this week. As of this Friday, the domestic offer price for TDI in East China is between 13800-14000 yuan/ton; The Shanghai cargo offer price is around 14100-14200 yuan/ton. During the week, market trading became increasingly cautious, and traders converged at low prices, waiting for the release of the end of month settlement price and the latest listing price at the beginning of the month from major companies. The market trading atmosphere is average, with some offers slightly rising and terminal stocking enthusiasm calmly entering the market. Under the supply-demand game, the TDI market is experiencing narrow range fluctuations,
Supply side: 360000 tons/year TDI plant in Fujian is temporarily shut down; The 50000 ton/year TDI plant in South Korea will be shut down for maintenance, with an estimated duration of two weeks.

Cost aspect: Recently, the toluene market has been affected by the strengthening of crude oil, and the toluene market has followed suit. Since January, the price of toluene has risen sharply, and TDI cost support has strengthened.
Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current downstream demand is flat, cautious entry into the market, difficult to increase trading volume, and limited positive market drivers. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a range oscillation trend in the short term.