According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling at a high level recently. As of February 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 136000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% compared to the same period last week (February 2nd), a decrease of 2.86% month on month, and an increase of 71.7% year-on-year.

Supply side: Expectations of loose imports continue to rise
As the Spring Festival approaches, some lithium salt factories are scheduled for maintenance or holidays, resulting in an expected month on month decrease of 16.4% to 82000 tons of domestic lithium carbonate production in February. However, Sigma lithium mine in Brazil resumed production ahead of schedule, and lithium salt exports in Chile increased by 44.82% to 16950 tons in January, causing concerns in the market about short-term supply pressure. Although the increase in such supply is mostly in the form of pulse shipments and not a trend change, it still further suppresses prices in the fragile market sentiment. At the same time, domestic lithium salt factories have abundant raw material inventory, and their willingness to stock up in the long term has increased. Although traders have a strong willingness to raise prices, the market has formed a consensus on the expectation of oversupply, further exacerbating downward pressure on prices.
Demand side: Short term seasonal contraction
During the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market of lithium carbonate entered the traditional off-season for consumption, and demand showed a phased contraction trend. The production schedule of downstream positive electrode material enterprises has been affected by holiday shutdowns and equipment maintenance, with a month on month decline of 10-15%. Among them, the operating rate of ternary materials has significantly decreased, while lithium iron phosphate has benefited from the support of energy storage demand and remained relatively stable, but the production schedule of top enterprises in February still decreased by 17% month on month. At the same time, downstream enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking, and downstream inventory has sharply increased in the past two weeks. Most enterprises have covered the demand in February, and some have even stocked up in advance until early March. The replenishment behavior in the past two days has basically ended, and procurement demand has slowed down significantly in the short term, with only a small amount of essential replenishment, which is difficult to form effective support for prices. In addition, the periodic replenishment that occurs when prices fall sharply (such as the replenishment of about 10000 tons on the day of the limit down on February 5th) is mostly a short-term behavior of downstream bargain hunting, rather than a trend driven demand recovery, and cannot change the pattern of weak short-term demand.
The turbulence in the futures market intensifies, and panic accelerates the downward trend of prices
The sharp drop in futures prices has triggered panic in the spot market, causing traders to completely break their price mentality and significantly increase their willingness to ship. In order to avoid the risk of further price declines, some traders have chosen to sell their inventory at low prices, further lowering spot prices; However, downstream enterprises take advantage of the opportunity of price decline to delay procurement, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the spot market. The excessive focus of funds on short-term supply growth and weak demand has further strengthened bearish sentiment, leading to price declines that exceed the actual fundamentals. Panic selling has become an important force driving down prices.
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate, multiple factors are resonating to cause a decline in lithium carbonate. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand will continue to be in the off-season, and the recovery of futures market sentiment will take time. Lithium carbonate prices still face certain downward pressure, but in the long run, the long-term growth certainty of the downstream new energy industry is strong, and the demand for lithium carbonate will steadily increase.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12883 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12933/ton, with a price increase of 0.39%.

The prices of domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers have risen this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 yuan/ton is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. Since January, coconut shell carbonization materials have been included in the new regulations for dangerous goods, and the import of raw materials has been greatly affected, resulting in a significant decrease in supply. Coconut shell charcoal enterprises in various production areas in China have been greatly affected by the shortage of raw materials.
The main coconut producing countries in Southeast Asia have been affected by natural disasters, policy adjustments, and other factors, resulting in a shortage of coconut shell carbonization materials and a rise in coconut shell charcoal prices. Coconut shell activated carbon has a strong demand in fields such as water treatment, air purification, and sodium ion batteries. In addition, the extended shipping cycle, increased storage and environmental requirements have pushed up import costs, which is favorable for supporting price increases.
Prediction: Due to the tight supply of coconut shell activated carbon raw materials and increased costs in China, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been continuously declining since January, with prices continuously hitting the bottom and falling to early February. At the beginning of January, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 776 yuan/ton. On February 2nd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.88%.
Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market, continuous decline
After New Year’s Day, the market for hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam was mainly consolidated, and the demand in the printing and papermaking industry was sluggish. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide was average, and it was purchased on demand and used as needed. The operating rate of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is relatively high, and the market supply of hydrogen peroxide is sufficient. The supply pressure has doubled, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to be sluggish, with prices falling to around 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton.
In early February, as the Spring Festival approaches and terminal rigid demand weakens, manufacturers lack confidence in raising prices and have lowered the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to be weak, with the average market price falling to 500-700 yuan/ton and an overall decline of 50-100 yuan/ton.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that weak terminal demand and loose market supply will put pressure on the hydrogen peroxide market to rise in the future, with a weak downward trend being the main factor.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China fluctuated narrowly this week. As of January 30th, the average market price in East China was 14166 yuan/ton, and on January 26th, the average price was 14100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 1.19%.
The TDI market maintained its upward trend this week. As of this Friday, the domestic offer price for TDI in East China is between 13800-14000 yuan/ton; The Shanghai cargo offer price is around 14100-14200 yuan/ton. During the week, market trading became increasingly cautious, and traders converged at low prices, waiting for the release of the end of month settlement price and the latest listing price at the beginning of the month from major companies. The market trading atmosphere is average, with some offers slightly rising and terminal stocking enthusiasm calmly entering the market. Under the supply-demand game, the TDI market is experiencing narrow range fluctuations,
Supply side: 360000 tons/year TDI plant in Fujian is temporarily shut down; The 50000 ton/year TDI plant in South Korea will be shut down for maintenance, with an estimated duration of two weeks.

Cost aspect: Recently, the toluene market has been affected by the strengthening of crude oil, and the toluene market has followed suit. Since January, the price of toluene has risen sharply, and TDI cost support has strengthened.
Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current downstream demand is flat, cautious entry into the market, difficult to increase trading volume, and limited positive market drivers. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a range oscillation trend in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices rise in January
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the price of acetic anhydride was 4590 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton or 7.37% from the price of 4275 yuan/ton on January 1st.
The acetic anhydride market operated strongly in January. The overall price of upstream acetic acid has risen, with strong cost support for acetic anhydride; On the supply side, some manufacturers of acetic anhydride have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply; Downstream production is stable, and entry into the market follows demand. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the mentality of acetic anhydride manufacturers is rising. With the support of favorable fundamentals, acetic anhydride prices have risen strongly.
The acetic acid market rose first and then fell in January
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of January 29th, the price was 2830 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 2.91% compared to the acetic acid price of 2750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In the first half of the year, the fundamental support for acetic acid was strong, and the price trend continued to rise; In the latter half of the year, the utilization rate of production capacity increased, the inventory of enterprises rose, the market mentality weakened, and the center of gravity of acetic acid prices shifted downwards. The overall strength of the acetic acid market within the month provides favorable support for the downstream acetic anhydride market.
Future prospects
The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market is weak and consolidating, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is weakened; On the supply side, the slow recovery of acetic anhydride maintenance equipment still provides some support for prices; Downstream demand is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. Looking at the future market, under the influence of the cost of acetic anhydride, the acetic anhydride market may experience a narrow downward trend, with specific attention paid to changes in upstream prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, there have been frequent bullish events in the market recently, forming comprehensive support from the supply side to the demand side, driving the continuous rise of lithium carbonate prices. As of January 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 16900 yuan/ton, up 9% from the same period last week (January 20th), up 43.5% month on month, and up 112% year-on-year.
The expectation of supply contraction is heating up, and the disturbance in Jiangxi’s production area has become the core cause
The core variables on the supply side come from policy constraints and production disturbances in Jiangxi’s production areas. With the release and implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law and the Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Solid Waste, the regulatory requirements and environmental supervision of lithium mining production have become significantly stricter, and tailings treatment has become a key regulatory content in the lithium mining production process. Market news shows that some mines in Jiangxi have been considering production stoppage, causing widespread concerns in the industry about supply contraction. However, there is currently no official document or announcement from companies confirming the production stoppage plan.
Demand side policy dividends are released, providing strong support for off-season demand
Last week, lithium carbonate prices fell due to expectations of a decline in demand for new energy vehicles in the first quarter. However, the notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance on the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods in 2026 has improved market expectations for a decline in demand for new energy vehicles in the first quarter of 2026.
The energy storage sector has also shown impressive performance, with the current energy storage order situation being good. Coupled with the adjustment of the value-added tax export rebate policy for battery products, the “export rush” effect is significant.
High price fluctuations and intensified market divergence
As the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, market divergence is gradually increasing. From the downstream market perspective, companies have limited acceptance of the current high prices and their purchasing enthusiasm has significantly decreased. At the same time, there are concerns in the market about the increase in supply. During the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices in 2025, some high cost production capacity was forced to shut down due to price inversion. However, due to the short duration of sustained low prices, this part of production capacity has not been fully cleared. After the current rapid price increase, the stimulating effect on supply increment is strong, which may drive the restart of idle production capacity and alleviate the tight supply situation.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the downstream is actively stocking up, which can provide support for prices in the short term. However, if there is no sustained purchasing demand to keep up after the centralized procurement is completed, the market is likely to readjust and find a new price center. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 5350 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 5533.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.43%.
The market price of isopropanol has risen this week. The price of raw material acetone has risen, providing strong cost support. Manufacturers have increased their quotations, and the intention of holders to lower their prices has weakened. The confidence in the isopropanol market is good, and downstream demand is the main factor. Inquiries are active, and procurement is cautious. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5400-5500 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Jiangsu region are around 5500-5700 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has risen this week, with downstream demand being the main factor. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly focus on consolidation, with more attention paid to the trading trends of major companies.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the DOP price was 7492.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.27% compared to the DOP price of 7325.84 yuan/ton on January 1st. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises is stable, with an operating rate of about 63% and stable DOP production; The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have risen, raw material prices have increased, DOP costs have risen, and with the increase in costs and sufficient supply, plasticizer prices have fluctuated and increased.
Plasticizer DOP manufacturer’s production slightly decreases
In January, the operating load of DOP manufacturers slightly decreased, the operating rate dropped to 63%, DOP production decreased, DOP supply decreased, and the upward momentum of DOP still exists.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the price of isooctanol was 7033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.69% compared to the price of 6916.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. The equipment maintenance of the isooctanol enterprise has been completed, and the operating load of the isooctanol enterprise device has increased. The operating rate of isooctanol is 9.5%, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient; The price of propylene has risen significantly, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, the cost of plasticizers has increased, and the driving force for DOP to rise has increased.
The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in January
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 6266.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.03% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 1st, which was 5966.67 yuan/ton. Starting from late December, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, and in January, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. In January, the price of phthalic anhydride increased significantly, the cost of DOP rose, and the support for the rise in plasticizers increased.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, while the price of phthalic anhydride has increased significantly. The support for the rising cost of plasticizer DOP has also increased; In terms of supply, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is weak and stable, the production of plasticizers is stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. In the future, with rising costs and limited supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will consolidate strongly.

Last Tuesday, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated strongly, and on Friday, East China ports closed at 3225 yuan/ton. Diethylene glycol is moving upwards from the bottom, but there is no structural change in the fundamentals, and the actual effective support is insufficient. The market relatively lacks new direction guidance. The main port supply will increase in the latter half of the year, and most industry players are more cautious in their market judgments.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of January 11th, Fubao’s inventory was 7400 tons, and Changjiang International’s inventory was 28600 tons.
Demand: Terminal demand is average, with domestic unsaturated resin factories operating at an average of 39%, up 3%. Traders are under pressure to ship. From January 9th to 11th, a total of 3770 tons of diethylene glycol were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of 1257 tons over the weekend as of now.
Cost: The geopolitical situation between Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and Israel remains uncertain, and short-term potential supply risks continue, leading to an increase in international oil prices.
Market expectation: International crude oil is expected to operate weakly, with fluctuations in the range of diethylene glycol. The fundamental structure has not yet changed, and downstream purchases will be appropriately followed up. Short term fluctuations will be the main focus, and we will observe the unloading situation of large ships arriving at the port in the future.

The development of the calcium carbide industry is deeply linked to energy structure and industrial policies, and by 2025, it will achieve a transformation to improve quality and efficiency, presenting characteristics such as supply optimization and demand differentiation; The tight supply-demand balance will continue in 2026, with policies and emerging demand leading the transformation.

（1） Price trend in 2025: high volatility followed by a downward trend, driven by multiple factors such as supply and demand, costs, and policies. The resumption of work and production at the beginning of the year drove prices up to 2733.33 yuan/ton; In the second quarter, Inner Mongolia’s production restrictions led to a contraction in supply, causing prices in North China to rise to 2800 yuan/ton; Starting from the third quarter, downstream maintenance and the release of new production capacity have led to weak demand, and prices have continued to fall, dropping to 2300 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price difference between Northwest China, East China, and South China is 400-600 yuan/ton, due to differences in resource costs and logistics, and strong industry price linkage.
（2） Supply side: Effective production capacity of 42 million tons per year (unchanged from 2024), with a 12 percentage point increase in the elimination rate of outdated devices below 100000 tons per year, and zombie production capacity of 3.5-4 million tons per year. 80% of the newly added production capacity of 2 million tons is for PVC and BDO integrated projects, with limited increase in commodity volume. The production capacity of the six provinces and regions in Northwest China accounts for 88% (33.21% in Inner Mongolia), with a top enterprise operating rate of over 75% and small-scale production capacity of less than 50%; The annual output was 38 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. From January to March, exports of 41000 tons (+48.17% year-on-year) flowed to RCEP countries, and the sustainability of growth is affected by Indian policies.
（3） On the demand side: PVC accounts for 78% of calcium carbide consumption, but due to the downturn in the real estate market and the squeeze of ethylene production, demand is weak; BDO has become the core engine with a demand contribution rate of 20%. The Inner Mongolia Phase II project has driven a demand increase of over 25%. BDO has added 1.63 million tons/year of production capacity throughout the year, and PBAT/PBS expansion has amplified indirect demand, resulting in stable PVA demand.
In terms of policy, 30% of production capacity will reach the energy efficiency benchmark, environmental protection costs will increase by 8% -10%, and local governments will promote the integration of coal and electricity; On the cost side, the price reduction of blue charcoal and limestone alleviates the pressure, while the high cost of electricity gives Northwest self owned power plants significant advantages; Technologically, the proportion of closed calcium carbide furnaces exceeds 90%, and advanced enterprises have reduced their electricity consumption per ton to 2600 kilowatt hours.
By 2025, the industry will complete its transformation from scale expansion to improving quality and efficiency, with core characteristics of price fluctuations, supply optimization, and demand differentiation.

2、 The price trend forecast for 2026 is expected to show a trend of “oscillation bottoming out and slight increase in the central area”, with a core operating range of 2200-2800 yuan/ton, and a slight rebound of 5% -8% in the price center compared to 2025. Supporting factors: shrinking supply due to the clearance of outdated production capacity, emerging demand support from BDO, and rigid cost support; Suppressing factors: PVC profit pressure restricts high price acceptance and adds integrated production capacity to supplement commodity volume. Short term fluctuations are influenced by downstream maintenance, power policies, and export markets.

（2） On the supply side, the addition of 2 million tons of production capacity is an integrated project with limited increase in commodity volume; Units with a capacity of less than 100000 tons per year will be fully withdrawn, and 2 million tons of outdated production capacity will be cleared, with CR10 rising to over 38%. The operating rate has rebounded to 75% -80%, with a production of 39 to 40 million tons; The expected export is 150000 to 200000 tons, and the dominant supply pattern in the northwest is solidified.
（3） On the demand side, there is a marginal recovery in PVC demand (with a growth rate of 3% -5%), while competition in ethylene production still exists; BDO drives demand growth by 8% -10%, while RCEP countries’ demand transmission overlaps, resulting in a 4% -6% increase in total demand for the year. The contribution rate of emerging fields has risen to over 25%.
From the perspective of Business Society, policies strictly control the addition of new production capacity, and the carbon market deepens cost pressures; Green electricity substitution at the cost end is the key to cost reduction at the top, with high environmental protection costs; Technology is deepening towards low carbonization and intelligence, and integration has become mainstream. Suggest that enterprises accelerate integration and green power layout, focus on BDO field, and promote low-carbon technology; Regulatory authorities coordinate the optimization of production capacity, improve green finance, and guide the response to international trade risks.