1、 Market price trend analysis
This week, the price of imported potassium chloride in China showed a trend of “first suppressing and then stabilizing”, and overall it is operating in a historically low range.
Price data performance: On November 1st, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3166.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 31st (up or down by 0.00%). Compared to 3183.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (October 27-29), the price center of gravity has slightly shifted downwards by about 16.66 yuan/ton.
2、 Market Fundamental Dynamics
Domestic potassium: Following the downward adjustment, flexible transactions
In terms of domestic potassium, the quotes for the supply and circulation links of top manufacturers have slightly decreased with the market trend. The low-end price has been narrowly reduced by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the reference price for 60% crystal mainstream arrival is 2950-3050 yuan/ton. Due to sluggish market demand, actual transactions often adopt a strategy of “single item negotiation”, indicating the manufacturer’s dilemma between maintaining market share and raising prices.
Imported potassium: coexistence of high inventory and cost support
Supply side pressure: The total inventory of ports is still in the historical high range, and the pressure of local port expansion has not been substantially alleviated, which is the core factor suppressing price increases.
Trade side mentality: Due to the dual influence of external news transmission and the fact that most traders’ spot prices are close to the cost line, traders’ bullish sentiment is beginning to emerge. Some low-end quotations have shown a narrow upward trend, attempting to build a bottom.
Specific variety quotation:
60% Lao potassium: mainstream quotation is 2580-3000 yuan/ton.
62% Russian white potassium: mainstream port reference price of 2800-3050 yuan/ton.
Border trade 62% white potassium: mainstream port prices refer to 2800-2950 yuan/ton. Due to weak local terminal demand in Northeast China and the lack of price advantages for cross provincial outsourcing, the overall transaction performance is poor.
Demand side: Insufficient production of compound fertilizers, with a focus on purchasing essential needs
The overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the raw material strategy is mainly focused on digesting the previous inventory. Due to lack of confidence in the future market and severe shortage of centralized replenishment power, procurement continues to follow the “essential demand model”. This negative procurement strategy is difficult to effectively support the spot price of potassium fertilizer, resulting in difficulty in amplifying market trading volume.
3、 Outlook and Summary for the Future Market
Overall, the potassium chloride market is currently in a period of adjustment between the “emotional bottom” and the “market bottom” this week. Negative factors: high inventory in ports, low opening rates of downstream compound fertilizers, and weak demand for Northeast border trade remain the Damocles sword hanging over the market, limiting the height of price rebound.
Positive factors: The price has reached a historical low and is close to the cost line of traders, increasing resistance to further decline; The stabilization of prices at the end of the week and the bullish sentiment of traders indicate that the market is seeking support levels.
Conclusion: In the short term, the potassium chloride market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile consolidation pattern. Although the risk of a sharp decline has decreased, it is difficult for prices to rebound significantly until downstream substantial replenishment demand is initiated or there is a significant depletion of port inventory. Market participants are advised to closely monitor changes in port inventory and the increase in operating rates of compound fertilizer enterprises.

The domestic PS market was strong in October, with significant increases in spot prices for various grades. As of October 31st, the benchmark price of PS was 12566.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 12.87% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factor: Due to the renewed tension in the Middle East, it has stimulated market concerns about international crude oil supply. There were reports of ships catching fire in the Strait of Hormuz within the month, and investors quickly assessed the risk of supply disruption. The rapid return of geopolitical premium in oil prices has triggered a resonance rise in bulk commodities. Although the direct raw material styrene within the range is constrained by demand, it is supported by rising remote costs, low market inventory, and continuous destocking at ports, resulting in overall fluctuations and price increases. Overall, the strong cost performance in October provided positive guidance for PS spot prices.
Supply and demand level: Since October, the operating rate of the domestic PS industry has been consistently low, and the willingness of enterprises to continue operating under high costs and losses is insufficient. In mid month, some companies aimed to control costs and reduce burden, causing the overall domestic load to drop to a historical low of 37.5%. Small scale resumption of work occurred in the latter half of the month. As of the end of the month, the domestic PS load capacity has rebounded to 40%, with a weekly output of nearly 68000 tons. The inventory position is controllable, and supply in some areas is tight. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, and merchants are trying to overcharge. However, the traditional peak season signal is not strong at present, and the production of downstream products such as electrical appliances and packaging has only slightly increased, and the digestion of finished products is slow. Manufacturers mainly rely on immediate demand for goods, with few large-scale contract transactions. Currently, PS is still in a phase of weak supply and demand.
Future forecast
The domestic PS market rose in a stepwise manner in October. The production load of the aggregation plant has slightly increased at a low level, while consumer demand is average. Analysts believe that remote raw material crude oil has once again strengthened, and upstream raw materials in the industry chain have generally fallen due to its support. Due to the impact of cost regression, PS spot prices may find it difficult to fall in the short term. But in an environment of weak demand, downstream cost transfer is not smooth, resulting in limited capacity to undertake. It is expected that the PS market will enter a high-level consolidation stage in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the crude oil market.

In October, domestic bottle grade PET showed an overall trend of first rising, fluctuating at a high level in the middle and late of the month, and then rising at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, prices rose due to the strong influence of crude oil, PX, and PTA. The center of gravity during the month was in the range of 8760-8970 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price at the end of the month moved up.
Analysis of the driving force of the monthly market trend
Supply side: Manufacturers actively control production and carry out centralized maintenance of multiple sets of equipment, maintaining low industry operating rates (around 58% -59%), shrinking spot circulation, and supporting the bottom; With the completion of some device maintenance, the supply shortage has eased marginally, and processing fees have continued to be repaired from the low level at the beginning of the month, with a significant increase in processing fees during the month.
On the demand side: Traditional beverage peak season ends, temperature drops, soft drink terminals enter off-season, downstream packaging factories mainly purchase for immediate needs, with limited order growth. The peak season is not prosperous, and the willingness to chase after high demand is weak. They tend to purchase as needed and accept orders cautiously; Export orders remain stable, providing some diversion support for domestic sources of goods.
Cost and profit: PTA and ethylene glycol follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the fluctuations at the raw material end are transmitted to the bottle slices; Benefiting from reduced production, PET processing fees have been repaired, and profits have been transferred from upstream to the bottle chip process. However, downstream absorption is weak, and price increases are not transmitted smoothly, limiting upward space.
Inventory: In the early stages of maintenance and production reduction, low inventory levels were reduced. In the later stages, with a slight recovery in supply and a slowdown in terminal shipments, the expectation of accumulated inventory gradually increased.
Market logic: In the short term, low production and low inventory provide support, but weak terminal demand suppresses the potential for a significant increase, and it is highly likely to maintain range oscillation; Focus on tracking PTA/EG cost fluctuations, device restart progress, and downstream packaging order changes.

The hydrogen peroxide market remained stable and rose in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 713 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 720 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%.
The main factors affecting the October hydrogen peroxide market
1、 Supply side: Southern new production capacity is suppressed, while northern maintenance is more frequent
After the National Day holiday, new facilities were put into operation in the southern regions (Hubei, Fujian), and the increase in supply was released. Central and southern China continued to be under pressure, and the price center shifted downwards;
In the northern region dominated by Shandong, some equipment maintenance and load reduction have led to a phased contraction of supply, supporting the strong pricing in the north and forming a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south;
The overall production of the industry is moderate; The storage cycle of hydrogen peroxide storage tanks is short, and enterprises dare not stock up in large quantities. Inventory is basically sold as production progresses, and inventory pressure is more reflected in regional circulation;
Long term: Continuous planning and deployment of new production capacity, slow pace of phasing out old equipment, and relatively tight supply in the medium to long term.
2、 Demand side
Iron phosphate (core increment): Large iron phosphate factories in Central and Southwest China maintain high operating rates and continuously consume hydrogen peroxide, which is the essential base for hydrogen peroxide in the Southwest and Hubei regions; This is also the linkage point where you tracked the iron phosphate chain earlier.
Paper bleaching (traditional largest downstream): Paper companies have weak profits, and it is difficult to significantly increase the production of white card and packaging paper. They only maintain essential procurement without peak season driving force, and have weak driving force for hydrogen peroxide (corresponding to the current situation of packaging paper companies such as Bohui Paper Industry).
Caprolactam and HPPO epoxy propane: The profit recovery in September drove a wave of inventory replenishment, but downstream profits weakened again in October. Procurement shifted to on-demand procurement and did not actively stock up.
Water treatment, printing and dyeing: seasonally stable, with little elasticity.
Key feature: There is no centralized replenishment of hydrogen peroxide downstream, and it is only necessary to pick up goods; This variety has poor storage stability and is not easy to store for a long time, making it difficult for large-scale hoarding to occur. The market is mostly volatile.
3、 Cost end
The mainstream process for hydrogen peroxide is the anthraquinone method, which uses heavy aromatic hydrocarbons, trioctyl phosphate, and hydrogen as raw materials. The fluctuation of hydrogen cost is the main variable; There has been little fluctuation in the raw material market this month, with neutral cost support and no strong cost drivers.
Analysts believe that in November, the supply pressure of hydrogen peroxide will increase, and the rigid demand at the terminal will be average. There is still room for decline in the future, and the expected price is between 700-750 yuan/ton.

The market for polyaluminum chloride in October saw a slight decline, with China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reporting around 1778.33 yuan/ton on the 26th, a decrease of 0.47% from the price of 1786.67 yuan/ton on the 1st.
In the production cost of polyaluminum chloride, raw materials such as alumina and hydrochloric acid account for over 60%. In October, the upstream electrolytic aluminum market first fell and then rose, with an overall decline. In the early stage, the market had high expectations for the “Silver October” peak season, but when demand fell short of expectations, aluminum prices concentrated and released negative sentiment, rapidly declining; After the price fell to a low level, the cost-effectiveness attracted the entry of essential demand, promoting market recovery, but the fundamentals did not undergo substantial reversal, and there was no sustained significant improvement in demand; The hydrochloric acid market rose first and then fell in October, with a slight overall decline. The cost support of polyaluminum chloride is limited.
Polyaluminum chloride is mainly used for municipal wastewater treatment, industrial wastewater treatment, and water purification in water treatment plants. In October, sewage treatment companies mainly relied on replenishing inventory according to demand, with weak willingness to concentrate on stockpiling. The market was dominated by old customers’ urgent orders, and there were relatively few new large orders. The downstream procurement rhythm tends to be cautious, with more immediate use and procurement, and no large-scale stocking. The demand side lacks upward driving force, and the market lacks upward momentum.
Market forecast: On the raw material side, the aluminum market will rise by the end of the month, while the hydrochloric acid market will remain stable, supported by the cost of polyaluminum chloride; On the other hand, downstream water treatment demand is difficult to release in a concentrated manner, and procurement remains cautious and rigid, making it difficult for the demand side to drive a rebound in the market. It is expected that the polyaluminum chloride market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in November.

1、 Price trend
This week, the aniline market first rose and then stabilized. On October 19th, the price of aniline in the market was 16400 yuan/ton, and on October 23rd, it was 16600 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.22% during the week and 107.63% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
At the beginning of the week, the factory unexpectedly shut down, leading to further tightening of aniline supply and driving up aniline prices. Subsequently, the price of aniline rose to a high level, and the price of raw material pure benzene became loose. In addition, downstream suppliers had poor willingness to accept high priced raw materials and purchased them on demand. After the price of aniline rose, it stabilized. As of this Friday, the mainstream domestic price for aniline is 16500-16600 yuan/ton.
Cost aspect: Recently, the market price of pure benzene has fluctuated and fallen. Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hainan Refinery have successively restarted, and the supply of pure benzene has increased. The cost transmission of downstream factories is poor, especially the phenol ketone unit has reduced production significantly. With low port inventory and limited support from later arrivals, the price of pure benzene has fluctuated and fallen.
3、 Future expectations
Jinling equipment has been restored, the pressure on spot supply is gradually decreasing, and market trading has returned to stability. It is expected that the aniline market will operate steadily in the short term without significant fluctuations in raw materials, and we will closely monitor changes in costs and demand.

1、 Overview of the market
At the close of October 16th New York time (early morning of October 17th Beijing time), international crude oil futures strengthened significantly under the stimulation of geopolitical news, and the two benchmark contracts closed up synchronously, with a significant increase in market risk appetite. In November, WTI crude oil with active trading on NYMEX rose by $3.44, or 3.51%, with a settlement price of $101.41 per barrel, regaining its position at the $100 integer level after nearly a month; ICE Brent crude oil rose $3.94, or 3.72%, in December, with a settlement price of $109.86 per barrel, hitting a nearly 5-month high.
2、 Trend analysis
（1） Positive factors: Shipping disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz, significant increase in geopolitical risk premium
The core driving force of the daily market trend comes from sudden geopolitical news in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, as the throat of global crude oil shipping, undertakes about 20% of the world’s shipped crude oil. Oil producing countries along the Persian Gulf coast rely on this waterway for 90% of their crude oil exports. Once the passage is blocked, it will directly impact the balance of global crude oil supply. On that day, there was a tanker fire accident in the waters of the strait, and the market was concerned about the disruption of waterway traffic, the risk of interruption in crude oil transportation, and the risk of supply disturbance caused by investors quickly pricing. The geopolitical risk premium increased.
Combined with the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict, market institutions have raised the probability of conflict spread, trading parties have actively increased their long positions in crude oil, and the expected increase in shipping insurance costs has further amplified supply concerns, driving up oil prices. Combined with the support brought by the significant decline in US crude oil inventories the day before, the resonance between fundamentals and geopolitical news has pushed oil prices to break through key pressure levels.
（2） Negative factors: Policy expectations and demand side constraints limit upward momentum
Despite the significant increase in oil prices on that day, there still exists a bearish logic that suppresses the market, restricting the unlimited rise of oil prices. On the one hand, the market continues to pay attention to the adjustment of the US sanctions policy against the “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. There is an expectation in the market that the US will relax relevant sanctions. If the policy is implemented, Iran’s crude oil exports are expected to increase, supplementing global crude oil supply and suppressing oil price increases.
On the other hand, the production policy statements of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) remain a key balancing variable in the market. Currently, OPEC+maintains its production reduction framework, but the market continues to monitor whether it will adjust its production based on changes in oil prices. In addition, at the global macro level, the recovery of overseas manufacturing industry is weak, and the expected demand for refined oil products in the medium and long term is weak. Under high oil prices, there is a restraining effect on the consumer end, which constitutes a long-term constraint on oil prices.
3、 Future prospects
Analysts believe that the trading logic of the short-term crude oil market has entered a stage of geopolitical dominance, with supply and demand fundamentals taking a secondary position, sudden news, and increased price fluctuations. The current trading mainline in the market is no longer the conventional supply-demand balance sheet, but whether the Middle East conflict will affect the main oil producing areas and key shipping channels. As long as the shipping safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, the risk premium of crude oil will remain high; Once the situation eases, there is a possibility of concentrated profit taking and rapid oil price correction for high-level long positions. In the short term, oil prices will enter a wide range of fluctuations influenced by news, and are likely to hover at high levels.

Short term focus on tracking four main lines: first, the progress of the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether there are more ship attacks and restricted passage incidents; Secondly, whether the Middle East conflict has further spread to crude oil production and export facilities; Thirdly, high-frequency fundamental data such as US crude oil inventories and demand for refined oil products; Fourthly, the policy trends of the United States regarding sanctions on shadow fleets of oil tankers, as well as the latest statements from OPEC+officials.

This week, the styrene market fluctuated and fell, with an average price of 10974 yuan/ton on October 12th and 10864 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 1.00% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 57.45%.
Macro: On October 15th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The US WTI crude oil futures have seen a significant increase, with the November contract settlement price at $97.97 per barrel, up $2.88 or 3.0%. Brent crude oil futures closed almost flat, with the December contract settlement price at $105.92 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.1%.
Cost aspect: Recently, the market price of pure benzene has been rising, and the inventory in the main ports of East China is low. Some empty orders for mid month delivery have been replenished, which has driven the market price center higher. The transaction volume of Shandong pure benzene market is still acceptable, with active buying and receiving at low levels. The demand for essential goods is still acceptable, and short-term supply expectations continue to be slightly tight, indicating a strong market trend.
Supply and demand side: Due to high raw material prices, styrene losses have intensified, and there has been an increase in maintenance and burden reduction enterprises, resulting in a decrease in supply. The port inventory is low and the expectation of accumulated inventory is not strong, resulting in a weak overall supply side. Downstream high priced raw materials have strong resistance, and the three major downstream loads are operating at low levels. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the market trading atmosphere is weak and prices are falling.
Styrene external market: On October 15th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $45/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1435-1445/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1375-1385 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: The current styrene production is fluctuating at a low level, with high costs and low inventory dragging down the bottom and demand dragging down the rise. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Recently, 85% of the domestic formic acid market has shown a trend of continuous decline before the holiday and stabilization after the holiday. On October 8th after the holiday, the benchmark price of 85% formic acid was 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13% from the same period last month when it was 2300 yuan/ton; Same as before the holiday. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of the formic acid market has improved in the short term, and market fluctuations have become more stable.
At the end of September, the market experienced a slight decline in prices due to factors such as inventory backlog and pre holiday clearance
The core cause of price decline is the continuous accumulation of inventory in the market, the slowdown of market shipment pace in the early stage, and the gradual increase in inventory pressure on merchants. In order to quickly recover funds and activate inventory, some merchants have actively released low-priced goods, resulting in an increase in low-priced transaction cases in the market, which directly drives the overall market transaction average price to slightly decrease, and the overall bargaining atmosphere in the industry is weak. Due to the special market factors approaching the National Day holiday, most production enterprises have focused on clearing inventory and shipping to avoid the risk of inventory backlog during the holiday, resulting in a continuous increase in low-priced supply in the market. Downstream terminals mainly rely on on-demand replenishment, with weak pre holiday stocking willingness and insufficient market demand support. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, the transaction center of formic acid market continues to shift downwards, and the overall pre holiday market is under pressure.
The market returns to stability after the holiday
After two rounds of adjustment before the holiday, the fundamentals of the formic acid market gradually improved during the National Day holiday, and the market stabilized smoothly. On October 8th, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market was dominated by horizontal consolidation. During the holiday, mainstream manufacturers stopped selling at low prices, and market prices stabilized at around 2000 yuan/ton. The price trend remained stable throughout the entire process, with no significant fluctuations. At the same time, the shipment situation during the holiday period was smooth, effectively alleviating the inventory pressure in the early stage. The overall inventory of the industry fell back to a reasonable median level, and the problem of market supply-demand imbalance was improved.
Based on the analysis of recent market trends, the price fluctuations in the formic acid market are mainly dominated by inventory cycles and holiday trading rhythms. The accumulation of pre holiday inventory and centralized inventory clearance have led to a price drop, while post holiday inventory digestion and manufacturer price increases have driven the market to stabilize and rebound. At present, the inventory pressure in the market is controllable, and the pricing mentality of merchants is stable. In the short term, if there are no new positive or negative supply and demand news, the domestic formic acid market is likely to continue its range sideways trend, and the price will remain stable around 2000 yuan/ton. In the future, we need to focus on the progress of downstream demand recovery and changes in manufacturer inventory.

In September 2026, the domestic acetone market experienced a strong upward trend, showing an overall trend of “recovery from low levels at the beginning of the month and fine-tuning from high levels at the end of the month”. The overall market growth was considerable, reaching a new high for the year. Data shows that the benchmark price of acetone in the domestic market was about 7225 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the price continued to rise throughout the month. The mainstream market price in East China once soared to 9300-9350 yuan/ton, breaking the five-year high. At the end of the month, the market slightly fell and adjusted, and the mainstream quotation remained stable in the range of 8750-8800 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of over 20% throughout the month. The market trading atmosphere was generally warm.
The acetone market has seen a significant increase this month, driven by multiple resonances of tight supply, recovering demand, and cost support. The supply side is the core factor driving price increases. In September, several phenol ketone plants in China underwent phased maintenance and reduced load operation. Some major plants in Shandong, North China, and other regions suspended exports, resulting in a significant contraction in domestic spot circulation. Market spot inventory is at a low level, and the tight supply pattern continues to support market prices. At the same time, the arrival volume of imported cargo at the port this month is relatively low, and external sources of supply are limited, further exacerbating the tight domestic supply situation.
The synchronous recovery of demand side provides solid impetus for the upward trend of the market. The peak season effect of the traditional “Golden Nine” chemical industry is prominent, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as bisphenol A, MMA, and solvents are steadily increasing. Terminal factories are concentrating on replenishing inventory, and there is a surge in demand for essential purchases. The demand for goods preparation before the Mid Autumn Festival was released in a centralized manner, the market trading activity was significantly increased, the traders had a strong attitude of price fixing, and the spot transaction price was steadily rising, driving the overall market focus to continue moving upward. In terms of cost, the international crude oil and pure benzene prices fluctuated strongly during the month, providing basic cost support for the acetone market. Coupled with the long-term losses of phenol and ketone enterprises, manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, effectively limiting the market’s downward space.
As we enter the end of the month, the market situation gradually cools down, and signs of high-level correction are emerging. The long short game intensifies, and the overall market will show a stable and slightly adjusted pattern in the future. The pressure on the supply side is gradually rising, and the phenol ketone units that were previously repaired have resumed production one after another. The export supply is steadily increasing, and coupled with the concentration of imported cargo at the port after the holiday, the domestic market supply will gradually ease, easing the tight supply situation in the early stage. The cost side benefits have weakened, and there are downward expectations in the crude oil market. The support for raw materials is gradually weakening, which will exert a certain pressure on acetone prices.
From the demand side, after the holiday, the end market’s stocking demand has come to an end, and downstream factories mainly purchase according to demand. The trend of centralized replenishment has subsided, and the support for essential needs has slowed down, making it difficult to support sustained high price increases. Overall, the short-term acetone market lacks sustained upward momentum, and companies still have the willingness to raise prices, with limited room for significant decline. It is expected that the market will mainly consolidate at a high level and experience a slight correction after the holiday, with mainstream prices likely fluctuating around the range of 8500-8900 yuan/ton.