According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market showed a unilateral upward trend in July. From July 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased narrowly from 5655 yuan/ton to 5677 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year price decline of 5.58%.

At the beginning of the month, with high cost support, the pressure on ethanol costs further deepened, and short-term on-site transactions were limited.
In the first half of the month, cost support weakened, supply side equipment is about to recover, downstream demand has not changed significantly, and the ethanol market is digesting the increase.
In the middle of the month, the price of raw corn decreased narrowly, and cost support weakened. At present, the domestic ethanol market is showing a weak supply-demand situation, and the ethanol market is mainly focused on consolidation and observation.
At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable, with some factories experiencing price increases but no actual orders. Downstream chemical companies also made essential purchases, resulting in a slight decrease in transaction prices.
On the cost side, in the first half of the month, the center of gravity of corn prices continued to shift upwards. At present, the average weekly price of corn in China is 2437 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors. The overall price of corn is still weak, the market atmosphere is weak, and spot prices continue to decline. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. The Huanan plant in Heilongjiang Province produces it, while the Jixian line produces it. Laha has resumed full production. The Bayan plant is expected to shut down on the 29th, while Wanli Runda’s edible and fuel facilities have already shut down. Zhongke Green’s production and Shenglong’s plant have also shut down. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream chemical delivery prices have slightly decreased, and ethanol consumption has decreased. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.
The future forecast shows that the supply side will increase and decrease, and the cost advantage will decrease. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market trend will mainly focus on observation and consolidation.