According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 4th to 8th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2375 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2378 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.11% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise, with local supply and maintenance combined with the increase in olefin production in mainland China. Against the backdrop of low inventory, the tight supply of circulating goods in the market has led to companies being reluctant to sell at high prices. Traders are actively chasing after the rise due to the impact of buying, while downstream buyers are passively purchasing at high prices.

As of the close on August 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been lowered. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2391 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2399 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2378 yuan/ton. It closed at 2383 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 12 yuan or 0.50% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 299310 lots, the open position is 407074, and the daily increase is -29603.
On the cost side, the contraction of coal supply dominates the market, and coal prices continue to rise, with increased support from the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid is mainly stable, and the overall shipping sentiment of factories is average. Traders and downstream suppliers mainly replenish on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. The focus of raw material methanol is increasing, and factories in the main production areas are passively raising prices due to cost increases, resulting in weak downstream demand. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is consolidating horizontally. The price of methanol, a raw material in the main production areas, has been rising narrowly, and costs continue to strengthen. The domestic demand for dimethyl ether market is relatively weak, and buying gas support is inadequate. Most downstream products have been affected by the rise in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 7th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 332.5-333.5 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 95-96 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 268.5-269.5 euros/ton, up 7 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the accumulation of social inventory in ports, the resumption of maintenance of methanol enterprises in mainland China, the increase in olefin procurement, and the demand side support for price increases will be more significant. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is expected to strengthen and consolidate.