This week (9.22-28), domestic liquid ammonia prices continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase in liquid ammonia prices in Shandong region was 1.16%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, the incremental production in some areas is slow, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2250-2400 yuan/ton.

From the supply side, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week. Previously, some units underwent maintenance, and production in Shandong, Henan, Northwest and other places slightly decreased. Some enterprises resumed work this week, but the overall increase was slow, and the market supply pressure was not significant. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some companies have engaged in price adjustments. Large factories in Shandong generally adjust prices within the range of 100 yuan, and the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand. However, the supply volume slowly increases over the weekend, and there is a phenomenon of inventory accumulation in some companies. Some companies in Shandong have slightly decreased their quotations, with a range of less than 50 yuan. The enterprise still has expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and the supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. However, urea shipments have increased recently, and prices have slightly rebounded in the middle of the week. After the price rose, the market generally cooled down, and prices generally fell back to the beginning of the week near the weekend. The main reason is the lack of sustained demand in the later stage. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly decline of urea was 1.44%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Analysts from Business Society believe that the continued upward trend of liquid ammonia this week is mainly due to the continued positive news from the supply side. Recently, there are expectations for the resumption of maintenance equipment storage and work. As the weekend approaches, some companies have shown pressure to release inventory, and ammonia prices have slightly fallen. Supply pressure may gradually increase in the later stage. In addition, there is not much positive news from the demand side, and there may still be room for downward adjustment in the ammonia market.