In June, the overall domestic calcium carbide market continued to decline, with a significant shift in price focus. The market was weak, trading was sluggish, and industry profits continued to shrink. The core reason is the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season, relatively abundant market supply, and the combination of supply and demand mismatch and multiple negative resonances, which have driven the continuous decline of calcium carbide prices since the beginning of the month without a significant rebound.

At the beginning of June, the domestic calcium carbide market quoted 2480 yuan/ton, which fell to 2380 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 4.03% during the month. The decline in core production areas is even greater. As an industry price indicator, Wuhai’s mainstream price at the end of the month was 2150 yuan/ton, a drop of 350 yuan/ton from the end of May, a decrease of more than 14%, and the price is approaching the low point of the year.
The overall price trend shows a steady decline, with prices falling rapidly in the first half of the year, narrowing the decline in the middle but continuing to be weak. In the second half of the year, the market rebounded slightly, and various regions across the country followed suit. The regional price difference gradually narrowed, and the overall market trend was uniformly weak.
Demand side: Downstream continues to be weak, with low purchasing willingness
PVC is the core downstream of calcium carbide. In June, the industry entered the traditional off-season for maintenance, and multiple devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates and a significant reduction in demand for calcium carbide. At the same time, the demand for PVC terminal building materials and pipes is sluggish, resulting in a backlog of finished product inventory and pressure on corporate profits, which continues to reduce production and burden, further dragging down upstream demand for calcium carbide.
Other downstream industries such as BDO also have loose supply and demand, with low operating rates, making it difficult to hedge the gap in PVC demand decline. Downstream enterprises generally purchase on demand and purchase as needed, without centralized stocking actions, resulting in overall low market trading activity.
Supply side: High production levels maintained, relatively abundant supply of goods
Compared to weak demand, the overall supply of calcium carbide was abundant in June. Although some companies have slightly reduced production due to losses, the industry’s operating base is relatively high, and the domestic calcium carbide furnace opening rate still reached 65.94% in the latter half of the year. Against the backdrop of a significant decline in demand, there is an overall oversupply of goods in the market, highlighting the pressure of supply and demand.
The continuous release of newly added production capacity in the early stage, the overall production capacity of the industry is sufficient, the export supply of supporting equipment has increased, and the market circulation supply is abundant, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and continuously suppressing the price of calcium carbide.
The new version of hazardous chemical safety regulations was implemented in June, and transportation supervision was significantly tightened, resulting in a contraction of market capacity and an increase in logistics costs. On the one hand, it continues to squeeze corporate profits, and on the other hand, it exacerbates the mismatch between regional supply and demand, hinders the flow of goods, further weakens market sentiment, and promotes the downward trend of the market.
From the perspective of Business Society, the weak pattern of the short-term calcium carbide market is difficult to change. In July, the PVC industry will experience a peak in centralized maintenance, and downstream demand will continue to weaken. However, there is currently no large-scale reduction plan for calcium carbide supply, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will continue, with prices likely to be under pressure. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a stage of adjustment characterized by overcapacity and weak demand. It needs to wait for downstream equipment to resume production and terminal demand to recover in order to repair the market. In the short term, the industry will maintain a low profit and weak oscillation operating trend.