The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5639 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 2.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.27%. The maintenance season runs parallel to the off-season of demand, and the supply-demand game in the ethanol industry continues. Ethanol factories in some regions have entered the maintenance season, leading to a temporary decrease in supply, which helps alleviate the current inventory pressure; However, at the same time, some downstream demand entered the off-season synchronously, and related devices also had shutdown plans, especially the demand for Baijiu continued to weaken. The short-term trend of ethanol market between regions will vary slightly.

On the cost side, corn prices are under significant pressure. On the one hand, wheat has become the main substitute for feed due to its price difference and nutritional advantages, while expired rice also provides a low-cost option; On the other hand, imported corn and barley serve as supplementary food sources, jointly occupying the feeding space of corn. Affected by this, the demand for corn is unlikely to significantly improve in the short term, and it is expected that the overall performance of the corn market will remain weak. The cost of ethanol is influenced by negative factors.
From the supply side, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the overall situation of oversupply in the ethanol industry in the short term. Affected by the factory entering the maintenance season and the gradual shutdown of equipment, the supply side has formed favorable support, and the short-term ethanol price in Northeast China is expected to remain stable. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, downstream side: The restart of the chemical ethyl acetate Yankuang plant failed, the Zhuhai Qianxin plant shut down, and other chemical urgent needs procurement. Demand for Baijiu declined. Downstream demand has shown weak performance. The demand for ethanol is influenced by negative factors.
In the future forecast, the Northeast region will enter a maintenance period, and terminal demand will continue to decline. The off-season demand will continue to affect the transaction price of ethanol. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the ethanol market may continue to decline.