The price of phthalic anhydride dropped in June

As of June 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8200 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.57% compared to the price of 8683.33 yuan/ton on June 1st. The US Iran agreement was reached, resulting in a significant drop in crude oil prices, which in turn led to a decrease in downstream benzene prices and costs. In addition, downstream demand for plasticizers collapsed during the off-season, leading to a dual bearish trend. Both ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, causing a volatile decline in the domestic phthalic anhydride market in June.
The phthalic anhydride market weakened and fell in June
The US and Iran reached an agreement, causing a sharp drop in international oil prices. The cost of crude oil → xylene → ortho benzene was transmitted, and Sinopec lowered the listing price of ortho xylene. The cost of ortho phthalic anhydride also decreased, and industrial naphthalene weakened simultaneously; DOP、 The two downstream industries of unsaturated resin are synchronously in the off-season, and the willingness of factories to replenish inventory is insufficient. Only about 50% of the production started in June, and the market transactions are sluggish; The neighboring method and naphthalene phthalic anhydride both fell simultaneously, with neighboring method continuing to suffer losses and naphthalene method experiencing a significant reduction in profits. The price center of gravity shifted downwards, reaching a stage low at the end of the month.
The cost support of phthalic anhydride has decreased
After the easing of the US Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated downwards, directly transmitted to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain: in June, the price of ortho xylene fell to 8200 yuan/ton, raw material prices dropped significantly, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased. Industrial naphthalene is weakening synchronously with the chemical industry, and the focus of raw materials is shifting downwards; The cost of the naphthalene method route is independent of crude oil, and the profit is lucrative. However, in June, with the decline in phthalic anhydride prices, the gross profit decreased significantly, maintaining a small profit margin. The downward pressure of naphthalene method phthalic anhydride is limited.
Low level supply of phthalic anhydride
On the supply side, due to severe losses, the enthusiasm of neighboring phthalic anhydride enterprises to start production is low, and some units operate or shut down at low loads for a long time. The overall operating rate of the industry is about 50%; Although naphthalene phthalic anhydride still has a meager profit, weak downstream demand has dragged down shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in equipment load and a slight decline in production. The overall factory inventory and port inventory remain low, with no large-scale accumulation of inventory; Downstream procurement is shrinking, and there is a relative surplus of spot goods in circulation.
Weak demand for phthalic anhydride
The traditional off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has reduced production to 50%; There has been no substantial improvement in demand for terminal real estate, building materials, and other fields. Downstream product factories adopt a “buy as you go, zero stock” approach and do not lock up raw materials in advance. They are extremely resistant to high prices of phthalic anhydride, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride is insufficient. In addition, the continuous decline in downstream DO finished products has suppressed the decline in phthalic anhydride purchase prices. After the resumption of navigation in the strait, the international market price of phthalic anhydride fell, and China’s phthalic anhydride export orders contracted. The pressure of phthalic anhydride surplus increased, and the support for phthalic anhydride’s rise weakened.
post-market forecast
The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, on the cost side, crude oil and ortho xylene have significantly decreased, and the bottom support for phthalic anhydride costs has weakened, increasing downward pressure; Demand side: The traditional off-season for PVC soft products continues in July, making it difficult for DOP production to recover, and the demand for phthalic anhydride continues to be under pressure. Overall, it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will experience weak fluctuations and a downward trend in the future.