According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 17833 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 18033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 1.11% in the month

This month’s market analysis

There was no expected “golden September and silver October” trend in October. In the first half of the month, amidst the factory’s willingness to raise prices, magnesium prices remained stable. However, due to the continuous decline in the price of raw material ferrosilicon and the loss of support on the cost side, coupled with the low enthusiasm of downstream procurement, magnesium prices rebounded at the end of the month.

Supply and demand side

As the end of the month approaches, there is no expected peak season for gold, nine, and silver. Downstream terminal demand is weak, mainly focused on replenishing inventory for essential needs, with significant price pressure. The market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see. The magnesium market is in a state of anxiety, and traders’ operations are also relatively sluggish, with the industry showing mostly weak sentiment.

In terms of raw materials

As of now, the mainstream ex factory price in the Fugu market of Shaanxi province for raw material 75 silicon iron is 6700-6800 yuan/ton. There is no significant increase in demand in the silicon iron market in the short term, and it is expected that the silicon iron market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

The raw material orchid charcoal market is operating steadily. As of October 25th, the mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market is 890-1020 yuan/ton, and the coke surface price is 620-710 yuan/ton; The mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 860-1100 yuan/ton, and 680-750 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream price of coke in the Zhongwei market is 620 yuan/ton; The mixed material in Shizuishan market costs 640-720 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 820-1000 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 670-780 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market is 980 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 780 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hami market is 920-1050 yuan/ton, coke surface is 380-1050 yuan/ton, and mixed materials are 300-360 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market is 850-1220 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory cash prices including tax. The prices of small and medium-sized materials such as blue charcoal in Tianjin Port are 1250-1300 yuan/ton, and coke face is 950-980 yuan/ton, both of which are cash inclusive of taxes at the port closing price.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, there is currently no significant improvement. Given the current situation of strong supply and weak demand, it is not easy for magnesium prices to rebound in the short term. However, the price of ferrosilicon on the raw material side supports the price of magnesium, and coupled with the fact that the magnesium market is already operating at a low point, it is difficult to further reduce it. Expected to experience narrow fluctuations at the bottom in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market fluctuated at a low level at the end of October. As of October 28th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 79000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.54% from 77800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 2.95% from 81400 yuan/ton last week. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 76400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.6% from 75200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.05% from 78800 yuan/ton last week.

Supply output maintains a month on month rebound, and supply pressure is maintained

In October, the annual production capacity of lithium carbonate smelting in China increased by 2000 tons. Lithium carbonate is still in the stage of capacity expansion, with a weekly output of 13423 tons, an increase of 66 tons compared to the previous period.

Demand remains strong

The consumption of terminal new energy vehicles remains strong under the promotion of policies and the seasonal effect of the traditional car market’s “golden nine and silver ten”: the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles, the loading volume of power batteries, the demand for energy storage projects, and the mid to high season have all increased, driving the destocking of lithium carbonate. The total inventory of lithium carbonate market shows a downward trend, factory inventory accumulates slightly, downstream inventory remains stable, and trade inventory rises.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the fundamental expectations for lithium carbonate are gradually returning to loose, and if there is no significant demand driven growth, it may further weaken.

Recently, the acrylic acid market has been continuously rising, with active trading last week, leading to a strong bullish atmosphere within the market. Both acrylic acid and propylene have seen some degree of increase, but with sufficient inventory in enterprises and a wait-and-see attitude in downstream markets, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stable in the short term. As of October 25th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the beginning of this month (6775.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

This week, the price of propylene in the market fluctuated and increased, international oil prices fluctuated and rose, propane prices remained stable and upward, and under the positive guidance of supply and demand combined with cost, the center of gravity of propylene market prices was pushed up. Downstream operators’ enthusiasm for entering the market to replenish goods was still acceptable, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market was good, supporting manufacturers’ quotations to rise. As of October 25th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6865.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% compared to the beginning of this month (6513.25 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

This week, the market for butyl acrylate has been consolidating. Last week, the market for butyl acrylate rose mainly due to the increase in upstream acrylic acid prices, coupled with the control of butyl acrylate manufacturers, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market. Various butyl acrylate manufacturers have a strong mentality of raising prices. After entering this week, the market for butyl acrylate has slightly stagnated, and it is expected that butyl acrylate will continue to maintain a sideways trend in the short term.

Overall, some enterprises have resumed work, supplementing local sources of goods and easing local supply shortages. On the demand side, the downstream maintains a strong demand for raw materials and restocks, but has a general intention to accept goods at high prices. In the absence of overall supply and demand pressure, the acrylic acid market is expected to remain strong in recent times, with prices continuing to rise strongly. We still need to continue to pay attention to market mentality, downstream order follow-up, and other situations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been consolidating and running horizontally this week. On October 18th, the market price of aniline was 10700 yuan/ton, and on October 14th, the price was 10700 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the period, a decrease of 5.1% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market mainly digested the increase, and the price remained stable. There have been maintenance shutdowns of aniline plants in Shanxi and Shandong regions, resulting in tight supply on site. Prices have remained high and stable this week, with high prices and a growing wait-and-see atmosphere downstream. In order to stimulate sales, some companies in Shandong lowered their quotes by 200 yuan/ton on Friday, while others remained stable.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has continued to decline, weakening support for aniline. On October 14th, the average price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton, and on October 18th, the average price of pure benzene was 7504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

At present, cost support is weak, and the price of aniline is high. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is poor, and market transaction prices are loose. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, it is expected that aniline will operate weakly in the short term.

Aluminum prices rise in October

After the holiday, aluminum prices rose in October, showing strong performance. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 11, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20720 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% from the market average price of 19980 yuan/ton on September 26.

Aluminum prices are expected in October

The reasons for the continued rise in aluminum prices in October are as follows:

1. Domestic macro positive news is released, and policies are boosting the non-ferrous sector. The central bank has proposed further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity, while also creating a shift towards refinancing to guide listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings of stocks. At the real estate level, it is proposed to lower the interest rates of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min: We will actively study and introduce measures that are conducive to the stable development of the real estate industry. Make good use of special bonds to acquire existing commercial housing and use it as affordable housing in various regions. We are urgently studying and clarifying the value-added tax policy that links the standards for ordinary and non ordinary residential properties. The positive expectations brought by domestic policies, coupled with the positive expectations of terminal demand, have driven aluminum prices to remain firm and improve emotionally. Under the guidance of policy direction, market confidence has returned and sentiment is unlikely to subside in the short term. It is expected that the policy will continue to boost positive sentiment in October.

2. The inventory is in a continuous state of destocking, and the daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the supply side is high, narrowing the upward space. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Multiple downstream sectors on the demand side have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories in a state of slight destocking. The expectations for the Golden September and Silver October are good.

3. The supply of raw alumina is tight and the price is high. The limited mining in China has led to a slow progress in the resumption of alumina production, making it difficult for the alumina operating rate to continue to rise. The price of alumina has risen rapidly and is relatively high, providing strong cost support for aluminum prices.

Potential risks of aluminum price loosening in October

Risk point: Import and export may be affected by foreign policy factors, and some of the US 301 tariff policies will take effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market continued to decline in September 2024. From September 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 6840 yuan/ton to 5890 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 13.89% during the period.

Early this month: The toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. The decline in the crude oil market has dragged down the weak mentality of the toluene market. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of toluene in East and South China was low this week. However, due to the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading is clearly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak.

Late January: The toluene market continued to operate in a weak position. The market was boosted by the rise of crude oil around the Mid-Autumn Festival. The toluene market recovered slightly for a short time. Affected by the weak actual downstream demand, the increase in the callback range was limited. After the holiday, Sinopec’s ex factory prices continued to decline, dragging down market sentiment and causing a wide decline in spot market prices. The overall demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low. Downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand, and under the influence of negative factors on the supply side, market prices continue to operate at a low level.

Cost wise: The crude oil market is declining, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle. As of September 26th, international crude oil futures have fallen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.67 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $71.09 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered multiple times during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude of each underground adjustment. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 27th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5850-5950 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 30th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7350 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the price on August 30th, 2024. During this price cycle, PX prices in East China, North China, Central China, and South China continued to decline both domestically and internationally. As of September 27th, CFR China’s closing price was 842-844 US dollars/ton, a cumulative decrease of 85 US dollars/ton from 927-929 US dollars/ton at the end of August.

During this period, there was a significant decline in the Asian toluene market. As of September 27th, the Asian toluene market had a closing price of $751-753 per ton FOB Korea in October, a decrease of $63 per ton; The closing price of CFR China in October was 743-745 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 80 US dollars per ton.

Future forecast: From a cost perspective, the expected improvement in the crude oil market will boost market sentiment. At present, the overall inventory of toluene in the supply side is at a stable, medium, and low level, which is a certain positive boost to the market. The downstream market has performed poorly in terms of demand, maintaining the intention to purchase for essential needs, and the demand side remains weak. At the end of the month, Asian external prices rose, boosting market sentiment, and the toluene market slightly rebounded. However, overall, weak demand has constrained the upward potential of the toluene market. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Focus on downstream stocking situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6800 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.45%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a fluctuating downward trend. In early September, the n-butanol market continued to decline, and the market center continued to move towards lower levels. As of September 15th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was based on 6666 yuan/ton, with a drop of 6.32% in the first half of the year.

In late September, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the n-butanol market ushered in a short recovery. In the post festival stage, some n-butanol units did not resume operation, and the overall operating rate in the site was reduced. The supply side provided temporary support to the market, and the market focus was moving up. However, the support provided by downstream demand to the market has generally improved. After the resumption of production, the n-butanol market has experienced a rapid decline. As of September 29th, the n-butanol market price reference is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, with some downstream companies stocking up before the holiday. The overall market demand has slightly improved, and shipments at low prices have also improved. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

In September, the price of ethylene glycol began to decline and stabilized at the end of the month. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.28% from September 1st.

On September 27, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4500-4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot contracts did not change much during the day. In October, the basis quotation was+38 to+43 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+42 to+46 yuan/ton.

On September 27th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4180-4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On September 26, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $540/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $535/ton.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

Cost wise: Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its unofficial oil price target of $100 per barrel and increase production to regain market share. Additionally, two OPEC+sources have stated that the organization will increase oil production in December. International crude oil production is expected to increase, and the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil has loosened. Coal to ethylene glycol has recently stabilized due to the stabilization of coal prices and cost recovery, but its absolute value is still relatively low.

On the import side, ships that were delayed due to typhoon weather in the early stage have gradually docked at the port, and the recent arrival volume at the port has increased.

Port inventory: As of September 26, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 553400 tons, a decrease of 119900 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on August 29, which was 673300 tons; Compared with the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on September 23, which was 512600 tons, the inventory increased by 40800 tons.

Future expectations

Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to the positive domestic macro conditions driving up the price of coal, and the cost of coal to ethylene glycol has changed; In addition, the polyester sector has been affected by macro sentiment and has stopped falling and rebounded.

However, the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil is still in a downward trend due to the influence of international crude oil prices, and there is no sign of a stop to the decline in the short term. In addition, there is an expectation of a weak peak season in downstream polyester demand, and it is expected that the price of imported ethylene glycol, which has a high correlation with futures, will have weak upward momentum. The domestic macro sentiment has a significant impact on current prices, and if international crude oil prices do not rebound, the price of ethylene glycol in October may mainly fluctuate weakly.

In this cycle (20240912-20240919), the cost side and demand side played a game, and the overall price of acrylic acid market showed a trend of oscillation and consolidation during the week. The atmosphere of negotiations in various regions was not lively. Although the overall supply and demand pressure was not high, the fundamentals still maintained a weak trend. As of September 25th, the reference price of acrylic acid was 6775.00, an increase of 0.37% compared to September 1st (6750.00).

In terms of cost

This week, the raw material propylene fluctuated within a narrow range, and enterprise quotations tended to be conservative, with little fluctuation in the cost of acrylic acid. Downstream factories flexibly purchase based on their actual needs, and transactions are relatively smooth for moderately priced goods; However, there is little interest in transactions with low prices, and the activity is slightly insufficient.

The mainstream transaction price of propylene in Shandong region is 6610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week; In the Northeast region, it dropped to 6255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; The price of propylene in the northwest region dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 6180 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease; As of September 25th, the reference price of propylene was 6690.75, a decrease of 3.98% compared to September 1st (6968.25).

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and the upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to remain weak, and it is recommended to purchase according to demand.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

This week (September 16-20, 2024), the adhesive short fiber market continued to maintain a stable trend, with manufacturers mainly fulfilling orders and prices remaining stable. The market price of the main raw material dissolving slurry is firm and stable, with cost support still remaining. There is no obvious sign of improvement in the “Golden Nine” market, and the demand in the terminal market is flat. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory, and the atmosphere of observation in the market is strong. The overall flow rate of goods in the market is stable, and the market price of adhesive short fibers has not changed much. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of new orders from downstream cotton mills.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (September 16-20, 2024). As of September 20th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Cost side support still exists

The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is still supported by favorable factors.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Although it has entered the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding on to signing orders for essential needs, and the new round of orders on site is expected to take about a month. The recovery of demand is not as expected.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber may remain high, and the supply in the market is relatively tight. However, the new round of signing orders in the downstream market has basically ended, and the peak season has arrived. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.