1、 Price trend:

On April 25, crude benzene commodity index was 35.23, unchanged from yesterday, 73.28% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 15.36% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the domestic pure benzene market and the external market are lower this week. WTI crude oil futures in May fell 55.90 US dollars to – 37.63 US dollars / barrel on the 20th of this week. The start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still at a low level this week. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is large. The bidding price of crude benzene enterprises this week is adjusted. As of Friday, the quotation in Shandong region is around 2050 yuan / ton, about 800 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil, the business community believes that the oil price will still fluctuate in a wide range at a low level in the near future. Although there are some favorable releases at the supply side in the short term, considering the continuous impact of the epidemic, the problem at the demand side is the most critical factor restricting the oil price at present. Even though trump said that the economy of the United States will restart in May, the effect may be greatly reduced in terms of the current situation of the epidemic in the United States. In particular, the global crude oil inventory has risen sharply, and the pressure on storage capacity will only become more and more serious. The growth of commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States is much larger than expected. It is also predicted that the global oil storage space may be exhausted in the next few weeks, and the operating rate of refineries may fall again, which will also force oil producing countries to further reduce production, and crude oil may be in epidemic in the future To seek rebalancing under the condition of low demand caused by emotion.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

Three, trend forecast:

Next week is the last trading week before the May Day holiday. Near the small and long holiday, some manufacturers should have certain purchase plans. It is expected that crude benzene prices will rise slightly.