1、 Price trend:

On April 19, crude benzene commodity index was 42.46, flat with that of yesterday, down 67.79% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.03% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Sinopec’s pure benzene rose 150 yuan / ton on Tuesday this week, driven by pure benzene, the bidding price of crude benzene rose this week, up to 2950 yuan / ton in Shandong as of Friday. In Shandong Province, the price has been raised due to the shortage of goods, but the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been intensively overhauled in the near future, with a low operating rate of about 40%, and little support for crude benzene demand.

Industrial chain: crude oil: OPEC + oil producing countries finally reached the largest production reduction agreement in history, but the strength was not as expected by the market, unable to offset the impact of public health events on demand collapse. This week investors returned to reason after a brief “euphoria” over the agreement to cut production and crude oil fell back. Brent fell $3.59, or 15.13%, this week from April 9, while WTI fell $3.79, or 13.15%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 69.83% and WTI by 58.81%. Pure benzene: after last week’s bottom reading, the market speculation began to slow down this week. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3050 yuan / ton. East China’s port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the downstream factories in the north were active in purchasing, the spot supply in the market was insufficient and the price was high. The East China Shandong arbitrage window opened to support the pure benzene market. Downstream products: this week, the market price of styrene fell, and the rising sentiment in the market dissipated. Most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales to maintain stable shipment. On Friday, Shandong’s price was 5150 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from last week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

It is estimated that the world crude oil consumption will shrink by about 20 million barrels / day in 2020. If demand collapses, without strong intervention from the supply side, it will be difficult for oil prices to strengthen. Moreover, the short-term agreement on production reduction cannot offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market cannot get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, crude oil consumption enters into the off-season from April to may, and seasonal factors will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, thus making the oil price face the risk of downward focus. In terms of pure benzene, East China’s supply enters Shandong, or its price is restrained. The downstream demand is mainly rigid, and it is expected that the price support of crude benzene in the future is limited.