1、 Market price trend analysis
This week, the price of imported potassium chloride in China showed a trend of “first suppressing and then stabilizing”, and overall it is operating in a historically low range.
Price data performance: On November 1st, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3166.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 31st (up or down by 0.00%). Compared to 3183.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (October 27-29), the price center of gravity has slightly shifted downwards by about 16.66 yuan/ton.
2、 Market Fundamental Dynamics
Domestic potassium: Following the downward adjustment, flexible transactions
In terms of domestic potassium, the quotes for the supply and circulation links of top manufacturers have slightly decreased with the market trend. The low-end price has been narrowly reduced by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the reference price for 60% crystal mainstream arrival is 2950-3050 yuan/ton. Due to sluggish market demand, actual transactions often adopt a strategy of “single item negotiation”, indicating the manufacturer’s dilemma between maintaining market share and raising prices.
Imported potassium: coexistence of high inventory and cost support
Supply side pressure: The total inventory of ports is still in the historical high range, and the pressure of local port expansion has not been substantially alleviated, which is the core factor suppressing price increases.
Trade side mentality: Due to the dual influence of external news transmission and the fact that most traders’ spot prices are close to the cost line, traders’ bullish sentiment is beginning to emerge. Some low-end quotations have shown a narrow upward trend, attempting to build a bottom.
Specific variety quotation:
60% Lao potassium: mainstream quotation is 2580-3000 yuan/ton.
62% Russian white potassium: mainstream port reference price of 2800-3050 yuan/ton.
Border trade 62% white potassium: mainstream port prices refer to 2800-2950 yuan/ton. Due to weak local terminal demand in Northeast China and the lack of price advantages for cross provincial outsourcing, the overall transaction performance is poor.
Demand side: Insufficient production of compound fertilizers, with a focus on purchasing essential needs
The overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the raw material strategy is mainly focused on digesting the previous inventory. Due to lack of confidence in the future market and severe shortage of centralized replenishment power, procurement continues to follow the “essential demand model”. This negative procurement strategy is difficult to effectively support the spot price of potassium fertilizer, resulting in difficulty in amplifying market trading volume.
3、 Outlook and Summary for the Future Market
Overall, the potassium chloride market is currently in a period of adjustment between the “emotional bottom” and the “market bottom” this week. Negative factors: high inventory in ports, low opening rates of downstream compound fertilizers, and weak demand for Northeast border trade remain the Damocles sword hanging over the market, limiting the height of price rebound.
Positive factors: The price has reached a historical low and is close to the cost line of traders, increasing resistance to further decline; The stabilization of prices at the end of the week and the bullish sentiment of traders indicate that the market is seeking support levels.
Conclusion: In the short term, the potassium chloride market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile consolidation pattern. Although the risk of a sharp decline has decreased, it is difficult for prices to rebound significantly until downstream substantial replenishment demand is initiated or there is a significant depletion of port inventory. Market participants are advised to closely monitor changes in port inventory and the increase in operating rates of compound fertilizer enterprises.