The hydrogen peroxide market remained stable and rose in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 713 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 720 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%.
The main factors affecting the October hydrogen peroxide market
1、 Supply side: Southern new production capacity is suppressed, while northern maintenance is more frequent
After the National Day holiday, new facilities were put into operation in the southern regions (Hubei, Fujian), and the increase in supply was released. Central and southern China continued to be under pressure, and the price center shifted downwards;
In the northern region dominated by Shandong, some equipment maintenance and load reduction have led to a phased contraction of supply, supporting the strong pricing in the north and forming a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south;
The overall production of the industry is moderate; The storage cycle of hydrogen peroxide storage tanks is short, and enterprises dare not stock up in large quantities. Inventory is basically sold as production progresses, and inventory pressure is more reflected in regional circulation;
Long term: Continuous planning and deployment of new production capacity, slow pace of phasing out old equipment, and relatively tight supply in the medium to long term.
2、 Demand side
Iron phosphate (core increment): Large iron phosphate factories in Central and Southwest China maintain high operating rates and continuously consume hydrogen peroxide, which is the essential base for hydrogen peroxide in the Southwest and Hubei regions; This is also the linkage point where you tracked the iron phosphate chain earlier.
Paper bleaching (traditional largest downstream): Paper companies have weak profits, and it is difficult to significantly increase the production of white card and packaging paper. They only maintain essential procurement without peak season driving force, and have weak driving force for hydrogen peroxide (corresponding to the current situation of packaging paper companies such as Bohui Paper Industry).
Caprolactam and HPPO epoxy propane: The profit recovery in September drove a wave of inventory replenishment, but downstream profits weakened again in October. Procurement shifted to on-demand procurement and did not actively stock up.
Water treatment, printing and dyeing: seasonally stable, with little elasticity.
Key feature: There is no centralized replenishment of hydrogen peroxide downstream, and it is only necessary to pick up goods; This variety has poor storage stability and is not easy to store for a long time, making it difficult for large-scale hoarding to occur. The market is mostly volatile.
3、 Cost end
The mainstream process for hydrogen peroxide is the anthraquinone method, which uses heavy aromatic hydrocarbons, trioctyl phosphate, and hydrogen as raw materials. The fluctuation of hydrogen cost is the main variable; There has been little fluctuation in the raw material market this month, with neutral cost support and no strong cost drivers.
Analysts believe that in November, the supply pressure of hydrogen peroxide will increase, and the rigid demand at the terminal will be average. There is still room for decline in the future, and the expected price is between 700-750 yuan/ton.