In October, domestic bottle grade PET showed an overall trend of first rising, fluctuating at a high level in the middle and late of the month, and then rising at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, prices rose due to the strong influence of crude oil, PX, and PTA. The center of gravity during the month was in the range of 8760-8970 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price at the end of the month moved up.
Analysis of the driving force of the monthly market trend
Supply side: Manufacturers actively control production and carry out centralized maintenance of multiple sets of equipment, maintaining low industry operating rates (around 58% -59%), shrinking spot circulation, and supporting the bottom; With the completion of some device maintenance, the supply shortage has eased marginally, and processing fees have continued to be repaired from the low level at the beginning of the month, with a significant increase in processing fees during the month.
On the demand side: Traditional beverage peak season ends, temperature drops, soft drink terminals enter off-season, downstream packaging factories mainly purchase for immediate needs, with limited order growth. The peak season is not prosperous, and the willingness to chase after high demand is weak. They tend to purchase as needed and accept orders cautiously; Export orders remain stable, providing some diversion support for domestic sources of goods.
Cost and profit: PTA and ethylene glycol follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the fluctuations at the raw material end are transmitted to the bottle slices; Benefiting from reduced production, PET processing fees have been repaired, and profits have been transferred from upstream to the bottle chip process. However, downstream absorption is weak, and price increases are not transmitted smoothly, limiting upward space.
Inventory: In the early stages of maintenance and production reduction, low inventory levels were reduced. In the later stages, with a slight recovery in supply and a slowdown in terminal shipments, the expectation of accumulated inventory gradually increased.
Market logic: In the short term, low production and low inventory provide support, but weak terminal demand suppresses the potential for a significant increase, and it is highly likely to maintain range oscillation; Focus on tracking PTA/EG cost fluctuations, device restart progress, and downstream packaging order changes.