1、 Price trend

On April 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province was generally stable, and some enterprises increased sharply to make up for the increase trend, but most of them are mainly stable today. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock. At the end of the month, it fell sharply again, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton, on the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton, on the third day, the price of some enterprises slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, after the Qingming period, the price of propylene steadily increased, on the seventh day, it began to rise by 100 yuan / ton, on the tenth day, it rose by 200-300 yuan / ton, and on the 11th day of Saturday, it was generally increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton, on the 12th day of Sunday, it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton, on Monday After the sharp rise in the weekend, the market may need to digest. Today, the price has not changed. Some of the soaring enterprises have suspended the quotation today. Now, the market transaction is still between 8000-12000 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

As far as propylene itself is concerned, its storage capacity is not high, long-term inventory cost is large, and tank capacity pressure is large.

Affected by the international situation, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price.

On the other hand, due to the impact of public health events, PP fiber materials have been widely concerned and demand has surged this year due to the application of masks. After April, especially before and after the Qingming Festival, the demand has suddenly increased, and the price of melt blown cloth has skyrocketed, and the raw materials are more favorable. The modified special material in PP is the melt blown cloth material, and the price has risen significantly. However, PP futures continued to rise last week, and there was a trading limit on Friday. Today’s market is still up, but there is no previous increase, which is conducive to the recovery of propylene price.

In fact, the total demand of masks for raw materials is limited. And because of the sharp rise of propylene, in terms of the rational market price of propylene at this stage, other downstream products of propylene are in a state of loss, the degree of loss may be large or small, but it is not conducive to their production and sales, so there are rumors of production suspension or reduction in other downstream products, which creates a certain pressure on the rise of propylene.

At present, there is good news about the reduction of crude oil production. PP in the downstream is rising obviously but the follow-up is limited. Most of the other downstream are affected or have plans to reduce production, or will cause pressure on propylene sales. Therefore, it is expected that the price of propylene will start to fluctuate in the near future.