1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11100 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11050 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.45% within the week. The price fell 8.49% month on month and 39.53% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week’s news was short of guidance. In terms of the factory, the guidance price of keschuang continued to hang flat, with little support for the market. At the same time, Ruian’s offer was significantly reduced from 1100 yuan / ton to 10200 yuan / ton, which pushed a further force on the declining MDI. In addition, although the demand side is going back to work and production is stable, it will still take time for resale, with limited consumption of raw materials and weak demand. Therefore, both from the supply side and from the demand side are “boosting” the decline of MDI market, and the trend of crude oil on the macro side is still unclear, which reflects that MDI market makes the market operators more cautious.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market is up and down. Foreign prices are mainly rising, while CFR China’s foreign market upside supports domestic buying prices. The number of new production cuts at the OPEC + meeting was less than expected, and the epidemic continued to reduce demand, and there were still concerns about overcapacity. Oil prices closed lower on the 9th. Sinopec’s listing price was raised, but the negotiation was less than the market expectation, and the price in East China fell. There is still a need to focus on upstream energy price trends. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Aniline: this week, the domestic aniline market continued to decline, the demand for terminal rubber additives was still low, and the downstream market maintained rigid demand. At the beginning of the week, the manufacturer’s inventory accumulated a lot. Although the price of pure benzene continued to rise in the later period, the delivery pressure was still there. At the end of the week, Shandong Jinling led the decline, and the market kept falling. After the profit was released, the downstream market improved, and the manufacturer’s inventory gradually digested, but the aniline profit It is still at a high level, and the starting load of the manufacturer is basically stable. In terms of devices, Huatai devices were temporarily overhauled earlier this week, while the rest remained stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: under the guidance of short-term lack of information, business club aggregate MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market will maintain a weak shock next week.