1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic toluene market price stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3290 yuan / ton, up 7.87% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: under the good boost of crude oil trend, the price of toluene producers and distributors has been raised. As a result, the price of toluene in China has risen sharply. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3400 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil: before Thursday, under the expectation of OPEC + production reduction, the overall trend of wide fluctuation and climbing was maintained. On Friday, the new draft of OPEC + production reduction agreement was finalized, but there were still differences among some oil producing countries. OPEC Representatives announced that they would restart the negotiations on Friday. With the deepening of the negotiations, the uncertainty increased, and the outside world’s attitude towards the strength of production reduction and all parties remained Doubt, leading to international crude oil overnight ups and downs, late plummeting. As of Friday day, spot Brent rose 0.25%, Brent futures rose 1.07%, WTI futures fell 6.73%, and Dubai futures fell 4.65%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, at present, Shanghai’s delivery quotation of goods with tickets refers to about 10200 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the TDI market will rebound in the next week, paying close attention to the factory’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 462 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 480 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will rebound in shock next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, on the supply cost side, the new production reduction agreement draft of OPEC + oil producing countries is settled, but there are still differences between some oil producing countries, and the international crude oil price may still fluctuate and grind to the bottom. In the medium term, we will see the demand side, the inflection point of the epidemic and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction, worries about the global economic recession caused by the continuous spread of overseas epidemics, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of construction of domestic downstream enterprises. Overall, it is expected that toluene prices in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will fluctuate and callback next week, and toluene prices in the domestic market will follow the shock adjustment next week.