1、 Price trend
According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on April 16 was 3226.67 yuan / ton, down 1.63% compared with the average price of 3280 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1 day), and down 9.53% compared with the same period last year. On April 16, the LNG commodity index was 79.53, down 0.66 points from yesterday, down 61.94% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.51% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The figure above shows the price trend of Shaanxi and some parts of Inner Mongolia, showing the up and down market. LNG prices fell continuously before the festival to the lowest point of 3146.67 yuan / ton, with a decline rate of 4.06%. After the festival, the mode of continuous rise was started, reaching the highest point of 3280 yuan / ton on the 13th, and began to decline after the 15th, forming an overall “n” trend. After the festival, the rising trend did not continue. In just a few days, the market returned to calm again. It can be said that the market came and went in a hurry.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of April 16, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3180 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 2850 yuan / ton, Shanxi Qinshui Xinao LNG price is 3300 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd LNG price of Ren company is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua is 3600 yuan / ton.
In April, heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the lower reaches of natural gas decreased gradually, the LNG market in China gradually entered the off-season. In addition, the intake gas continuously gave way to profits, which impacted the domestic LNG market. The delivery pressure of liquid plants was high, the inventory was high, and the pressure of LNG was low. During the Qingming holiday, due to the restriction of Expressway on dangerous chemical vehicles, many places failed to deliver goods, and the inventory was high. In some areas, the quotation was lowered and the goods were shipped. However, the demand for LNG filling station increased, which led to the price rising in some areas. After the holiday, the terminal began to replenish goods mainly from the filling station. At the same time, in April, the state vigorously promoted the resumption of production of enterprises, which led to a certain increase in industrial gas consumption In addition, after the price reduction and promotion before the festival, the delivery situation in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places improved, inventory decreased, the willingness of liquid plants to continue to decline weakened, and the price began to rise. At present, some factories will enter the maintenance season, the market supply may be slightly reduced, and manufacturers are willing to increase prices. In addition, due to the low LNG price before the festival, the downstream market is active, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is good. The delivery of liquid plants is smooth, the liquid level is generally not high, and the price is gradually rising. However, due to the impact of the drop in the spot price of imported LNG and the impact on the domestic LNG market, there is a lack of practical support for the liquid price, which has been under pressure. At present, the industry has entered the off-season, with sufficient market supply and insufficient demand follow-up, it is difficult for domestic LNG market to have a large increase.
Recently, crude oil price war fluctuated violently. Crude oil futures in New York fell to $19.2/barrel on the 15th, but the continuous decline of crude oil temporarily has limited impact on the natural gas industry. At present, the decline of domestic LNG price is mainly due to low demand and high inventory in the industry during the off-season. However, the continuous decline of international oil price has a certain impact on the long-term price of LNG import. The long-term price is linked to the international oil price in the past few months. If the price of imported gas is at a low level for a long time, there will be no small pressure on the domestic LNG market.
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At present, the natural gas industry is recovering, but affected by public health events, the growth rate is slow, the situation of supply exceeding demand is difficult to reverse in a short period of time, and it still needs to wait for full resumption of production to drive demand. China imported 130 million tons of crude oil from January to March, 24.66 million tons of natural gas from January to March, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1% in the total amount of imported natural gas, 26.25 billion cubic meters of total natural gas supply (excluding gas storage), and 1.0% in the apparent consumption of natural gas.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 16, 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with dimethyl ether (2.57%) rising. There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are Brent crude oil (- 6.45%), diesel oil (- 2.04%) and gasoline (- 1.81%). The average price of this day was – 0.7%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of business association, at present, the LNG market is stepping into the off-season, the downstream demand is general, the price of liquid in many places tends to be stable, and some areas begin to callback. It is expected that the price will mainly be consolidation in the short term.
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