Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose slightly in September. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, 2.27% higher than the price of 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 26.76% higher than the previous year. The PX price rose slightly in September.

In September, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene rose slightly. In September, the international crude oil price fell, while the PX external market price remained high. As of September 29, the closing price was 1035-1037 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 1053-1055 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic paraxylene market has risen slightly.

In September, the international crude oil price declined by 9.29%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.23 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 87.18 dollars/barrel. The decline in crude oil price caused the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. In addition, the repeated outbreaks of the disease depressed the demand for crude oil, and the trend of international oil prices declined. As of the week of September 23, crude oil inventory increased by about 4.2 million barrels; Gasoline inventory decreased by about 1 million barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by about 438000 barrels. According to the US Federal Security and Environmental Law Enforcement Agency, affected by Hurricane Ian, the US Gulf of Mexico region saw 157706 barrels/day of oil production go offline on Wednesday, accounting for about 9% of the total production in the region. The weather affected the decline of US crude oil production. In addition, China’s crude oil imports fell sharply in August on a year-on-year basis, which depressed market confidence. The control brought about by the repeated epidemic situation dragged down oil demand. However, the price of domestic petrochemical products was relatively strong, and the price of paraxylene rose slightly.

In September, the domestic PTA spot market rose first and then fell. As of the end of the month, the average price in the East China market was 6378.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the beginning of the month. In September, the maintenance and restart of domestic plants coexisted. Mainstream suppliers gradually became negative, with a small increase in output. The industry’s operating rate was around 73%. However, PTA is still in a tight balance, the pattern of social inventory reduction continues, and the current supply of goods in the spot market is still tight. In September, the polyester and weaving industries in the downstream picked up significantly, with the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rising to more than 70%. The terminal consumption of “Jinjiu” has gradually entered the traditional peak season, orders have been placed in autumn and winter, and the demand for staged replenishment has been released. The polyester market kept consistent with PTA trend. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was not high. The polyester inventory was once again facing accumulation. The factory profits were further compressed, and large factories had plans to reduce production. On the whole, the slight rise of PTA price in the downstream is good for the domestic paraxylene market, and the price in the domestic paraxylene market is higher.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Although the downstream is in the traditional peak season, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, the pressure on polyester inventory rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA price rises are limited. Overall, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will remain stable in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the business community, as of September 30, the average ex factory price of domestic local hydrotreating naphtha mainstream was 8223.33 yuan/ton, down 6.48% from 8793.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local hydrotreating naphtha fell in shock.

According to the latest monitoring data of the business community, as of September 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 8152.50 yuan/ton, down 5.23% from 8602.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight run naphtha fell in shock.

On September 30, the naphtha commodity index was 101.49, down 0.41 points from yesterday, 16.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and 140.27% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In September, the price of locally refined naphtha fluctuated and fell. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7900-8200 yuan/ton. In September, the international crude oil fell in shock, and the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The purchase was mainly just needed. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the refinery reduced the price for shipment. As of the week ended September 28, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory fell by 1.069 million barrels to a two-week low of 22.331 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 276000 barrels to a three week high of 15.641 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil depot fell by 1.046 million barrels to a five week low of 7.338 million barrels.

Upstream: The trend of international crude oil prices in September was volatile and downward. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the trade-off between the supply risk of Russian oil and the concern about economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve leading the global central bank to raise interest rates. The US strategic oil reserves fell continuously, hitting a 38 year low. OPEC+, an oil producing country, will increasingly demand for reducing inventory and increasing oil prices, and its idle capacity has been very limited, so it will be very difficult to increase production in the later period. Moreover, Western sanctions against Russia are still escalating, the effective period of the oil shipping ban is getting closer and closer, and the supply side is still on the high side in the near future.

Downstream: Toluene rose slightly in the first ten days of September and then weakened, and recovered slightly in the second ten days of September. The price of toluene was 7780 yuan/ton on September 1 and 7700 yuan/ton on September 28, down 1.03% from the beginning of the month. In September, mixed xylene rose in the first ten days and began to weaken in the middle of the year. The price of mixed xylene was 8090 yuan/ton on September 1 and 8050 yuan/ton on September 28, down 0.49% from the beginning of the month. The price of paraxylene rose slightly in September. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, 2.27% higher than the price of 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business community, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in September, with limited naphtha cost support. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the refinery was active in shipping, and the deal was light. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future will focus on the weak.

In September 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market price fluctuated widely and rose slightly overall. The average price of the domestic market was 186210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 187060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.46%.

On September 28, the tin commodity index was 94.85, down 0.16 points from yesterday, down 49.47% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 (2022-03-09), and up 121.30% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past four months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.

Tin futures market in September 2022

Variety, closing price on August 30, closing price on September 28, inventory on August 30 (tons), and inventory on September 28 (tons)

Shanghai Tin, 193950 yuan/ton, 182660 yuan/ton, 1610., 1473

London tin., 24600 dollars/ton., 20600 dollars/ton., 4410., 5070

The trend of tin price in September was volatile, and the amplitude remained around 5%. The market rose sharply in the first ten days of the year. After a sharp decline in the middle of the year, the market continued to rise in a volatile way, and the price returned to the beginning of the month by the end of the month. Tin prices are most significantly affected by the macro, and the macro news throughout September was relatively frequent. On the night of the 13th, the United States announced inflation data, which was generally high and exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve’s expectations for interest rate hikes rose, leading to a sharp rise of about 1.5% in the dollar index. Metals in the night market were generally under pressure, with Shanghai Tin leading the decline of 4.33%. In the middle and late ten days, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 points, the post hawk speech intensified the expectation of future interest rate hikes. Many countries followed the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes, and the dollar hit new highs for nearly 20 years for many times in a row, while Shanghai and Wuxi rose in price shock supported by low inventory.

In terms of fundamentals, there was no significant change in tin supply and demand in September, and the pattern of weak supply and demand was still maintained. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods increased, the quotation of imported goods in the market increased, and the domestic supply of tin ingots was slightly loose compared with the previous period. The overall performance of downstream demand is not outstanding. Although the market near the National Day holiday is expected to have a certain readiness to stock up before the festival, the recent volatility of tin prices is large. The downstream generally maintain on-demand procurement, and bargain hunting has become the norm. The terminal electronics industry is not expected to improve in the near future, while the overall expectation of overseas consumption has declined in the near future, which also led to the overall accumulation of overseas inventory this month. Due to the low inventory of tin, it is obviously disturbed by the macro and domestic capital. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be affected more by the macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market in September was mainly narrow. At the beginning of this month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 916 yuan/ton. On September 28, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 920 yuan/ton, up 0.36%.

The terminal demand was flat. The hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated in a narrow range in September

At the beginning of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market rose and fell. Due to the flat terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide market was weak and ran smoothly.

After the Mid Autumn Festival, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in terminal printing, paper industry and other industries was stable, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to operate stably. As some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down for maintenance, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is relatively tight. This week, the hydrogen peroxide market is rising, with the mainstream quotation of about 900 yuan/ton, up more than 1%.

At the end of the month, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down for maintenance, and they had little confidence in the price. The hydrogen peroxide market began to decline steadily, and the mainstream quotation returned to the front line of 920 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an analyst of hydrogen peroxide from the business community, believes that after the National Day holiday, terminal demand is expected to improve, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of September 27, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8366.67 yuan/ton, 0.80% higher than that on September 1, and 12.24% lower than that on a three-month cycle.

In September, the melamine market fluctuated and rose slightly, and the market atmosphere was weak near the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, there was some support on the cost side, but the downstream was mainly bearish, the purchase intention was not strong, and the market was weak. With the rising price of raw urea, the support on the cost side continued to strengthen. Some enterprises received orders for export, but the domestic trade needed to follow up. The low operating rate of the industry and the cost led to the rise of the melamine market. After the rise, the downstream was in conflict with the high price of goods, and more rigid goods needed to be purchased. The manufacturers mainly implemented early orders, The focus of the market negotiation was at a high level, the cost support remained in the late decade, and the operating rate was low, but the demand side was not good, enterprises cut prices to attract orders, the high-end price of the melamine market was loose, and the market atmosphere was weak.

On September 26, the benchmark price of upstream urea was 2553.00 yuan/ton, up 6.38% compared with 2400.00 yuan/ton on September 1.

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the cost is still supported at present, and the downstream stores are properly stocked up before the festival, but the demand is still poor, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 26, the DOP price was 10040 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from 10212.50 yuan/ton on September 18 last weekend; It was down 3.00% from 10350 yuan/ton on September 20. This week, the positive support of DOP weakened, and the price of DOP rose first and then fell.

Domestic DOP import and export volume

According to the data released by the customs, in 2022, the number of DOP source imports will shrink rapidly, while the number of exports will increase. In August, China’s DOP import volume was 161.4 tons, down 98.6% year on year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume fell 81.8% year on year; The export volume of DOP has risen significantly since June. In August, the export volume was 5442.7 tons, up 644% year on year. From January to August, the cumulative increase was 33%. Although the proportion of imported DOP in the domestic DOP market is relatively small, the decrease in imports and the increase in exports also reduce the supply and increase the demand in the domestic DOP market, which is good for the domestic DOP market.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of September 26, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 7.29% from 9600 yuan/ton on September 18 at the beginning of the week. Recently, the supply of goods in the phthalic anhydride plant is tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Tongling, Anhui Province has been shut down for maintenance for about a month, and the 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Xinyang Group has been shut down. It is expected that the start-up and restart after the National Day holiday. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in the plant has risen significantly, the cost of DOP raw materials has risen, and the impetus for the rise of DOP has increased.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol dropped sharply this week. As of September 26, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, down 6.01% from 9433.33 yuan/ton on September 18 last weekend. The price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP fell, and the positive support of DOP weakened.

Future market expectation

Business agency DOP data analysts believe that the recent plasticizer import and export data has improved, the export volume has greatly increased and the export volume has decreased, and the supply and demand are still good. In terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after a sharp rise, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, and the positive support of DOP weakened. In the future, the demand for DOP cost decreases and the DOP price is expected to fall slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the week, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6675.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6550.00 yuan/ton, down 1.87%, and up 20.18% year on year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell slightly this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market declined in the past two months, and the market continued to fall this week. The market price of raw potassium chloride is still falling, and new orders for border trade have been signed, among which traders have suffered serious losses. The equipment of the domestic manufacturer is normally started and delivered according to the order. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, market transactions were cold and quiet, and the market for potassium nitrate declined. According to the statistics of the business community, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 6200-6800 yuan/ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell. At present, the market price of 60% salt lake crystal is 3750-3850 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The price of 57% of the powder in Qinghai small factories is 3500-3600 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the price of 62% of white potassium in border trade areas is 3850-4950 yuan/ton (down 50-100 yuan/ton). The price of 62% white potassium at the port is 3900-4150 yuan/ton. The price of large particles at the port is mostly 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 4000 yuan/ton.

In the near future, the domestic potassium chloride market continues to maintain a sluggish trend, and it is difficult for downstream factories to increase their purchasing strength significantly. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will decline mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of the business community. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers.).

In the middle of September, the trend of domestic propane market was mostly downward, and Shandong propane market fell significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5915.75 yuan/ton on September 15, and 5668.25 yuan/ton on September 22, with a weekly drop of 4.18%, 0.74% lower than the same period last year.

As of September 22, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/. September 22

Central China, 5950-6150 yuan/ton

North China, 5700-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5600-5700 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5750-5850 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic propane market mainly declined, while the Shandong propane market fell significantly by 100-250 yuan/ton. The international crude oil fell significantly during the week, and the cost was bad for the market. In terms of market supply, domestic refineries have sufficient supply, which brings certain negative effects. In terms of market demand, the current increase in terminal demand is limited, and the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, with a cautious mind, and the market trading atmosphere is general. As the National Day holiday approaches, the manufacturer has a certain demand for inventory arrangement before the festival, and most prices are down.

Saudi Aramco announced in September 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 650 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane was 630 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton from last month.

On the whole, the international crude oil price has declined and the support from the cost side is insufficient. At present, the increase of terminal demand is not obvious, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The market supply is relatively adequate. With the arrival of the National Day Holiday, the upstream is dominated by inventory discharge, and more price cuts are made to stimulate the downstream to enter the market. It is estimated that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.

After the festival, the domestic MIBK market rose slightly, mainly due to the wide upward support of acetone at the raw material end. Under the pressure of cost, the focus of negotiation rose by about 100-150 yuan/ton, and the overall negotiation range was 9550-9700 yuan/ton.

The acetone at the raw material end was pushed up, and the pressure from the cost side was increased. The acetone negotiation in East China was pushed up to 5400 yuan/ton, and the acetone negotiation in South China was pushed up to 5500 yuan/ton. Last week, restricted by the weather interval transportation short futures, the price holding sentiment of the commodity holders increased, and the offer rose. This is due to the strong support from the cost side. The commodity holders have a strong intention to push up, but the low price does not rise. 

In the week, the operating rate of MIBK industry was around 80%. Zhejiang Zhenyang’s 15000 t/a MIBK unit was shut down for maintenance on September 17, and the operating rate of the industry continued to decline. It is expected that the supply side will be tightened overall this week. However, from the perspective of the industry as a whole, although the supply pressure is not serious, the downstream just needs to follow up.

The business community expects the domestic MIBK market to be stable or rising, with strong acetone support on the cost side, and MIBK mainly operates at a high price during the maintenance of Zhejiang Zhenyang device, but the increase is limited by the demand side release.

DBP prices rose sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price rose sharply this week. As of September 19, the DBP price was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 4.00% from 9166.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The cost increases, the plasticizer increases, and the DBP price increases. On September 19, the DBP commodity index was 75.07, up 0.27 points from yesterday, down 32.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 110.50 (2021-10-12), and up 10.85% from the lowest point of 67.72 on August 16, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

The price of DBP raw materials rose in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol rose sharply this week. The price of n-butanol on September 19 was 7200 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from 6666.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. Affected by Jinjiu, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has warmed up, the confidence of the operators has improved, and the price of n-butanol has risen significantly due to the replenishment of some enterprises after the festival. The price of raw materials and the cost of DBP have increased, and the impetus for the rise of DBP has increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of September 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9600 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 9250 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, downstream plasticizer started to rise, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, phthalic anhydride rose greatly, the cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the rising power of DBP in the future increased.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the Business Club, with the advent of the Golden Age and the Silver Age, the number of plasticizer enterprises has increased. In addition, some enterprises have replenished their warehouses after the festival. The prices of DBP raw materials, n-butanol and phthalic anhydride, have risen sharply. The cost of plasticizer has risen, and the price of plasticizer DBP has gained momentum. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer DBP have both warmed up, and the price support of DBP is mainly on the cost of raw materials. In terms of raw materials, after the completion of the post holiday replenishment, the support for the rise of raw materials will be weakened, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride will be strong and stable, and the cost of DBP will be strong and stable. It is expected that the DBP price will be strong and consolidated in the future.