In September 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market price fluctuated widely and rose slightly overall. The average price of the domestic market was 186210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 187060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.46%.
On September 28, the tin commodity index was 94.85, down 0.16 points from yesterday, down 49.47% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 (2022-03-09), and up 121.30% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past four months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.
Tin futures market in September 2022
Variety, closing price on August 30, closing price on September 28, inventory on August 30 (tons), and inventory on September 28 (tons)
Shanghai Tin, 193950 yuan/ton, 182660 yuan/ton, 1610., 1473
London tin., 24600 dollars/ton., 20600 dollars/ton., 4410., 5070
The trend of tin price in September was volatile, and the amplitude remained around 5%. The market rose sharply in the first ten days of the year. After a sharp decline in the middle of the year, the market continued to rise in a volatile way, and the price returned to the beginning of the month by the end of the month. Tin prices are most significantly affected by the macro, and the macro news throughout September was relatively frequent. On the night of the 13th, the United States announced inflation data, which was generally high and exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve’s expectations for interest rate hikes rose, leading to a sharp rise of about 1.5% in the dollar index. Metals in the night market were generally under pressure, with Shanghai Tin leading the decline of 4.33%. In the middle and late ten days, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 points, the post hawk speech intensified the expectation of future interest rate hikes. Many countries followed the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes, and the dollar hit new highs for nearly 20 years for many times in a row, while Shanghai and Wuxi rose in price shock supported by low inventory.
In terms of fundamentals, there was no significant change in tin supply and demand in September, and the pattern of weak supply and demand was still maintained. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods increased, the quotation of imported goods in the market increased, and the domestic supply of tin ingots was slightly loose compared with the previous period. The overall performance of downstream demand is not outstanding. Although the market near the National Day holiday is expected to have a certain readiness to stock up before the festival, the recent volatility of tin prices is large. The downstream generally maintain on-demand procurement, and bargain hunting has become the norm. The terminal electronics industry is not expected to improve in the near future, while the overall expectation of overseas consumption has declined in the near future, which also led to the overall accumulation of overseas inventory this month. Due to the low inventory of tin, it is obviously disturbed by the macro and domestic capital. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be affected more by the macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.