1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the business community, as of September 30, the average ex factory price of domestic local hydrotreating naphtha mainstream was 8223.33 yuan/ton, down 6.48% from 8793.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local hydrotreating naphtha fell in shock.

According to the latest monitoring data of the business community, as of September 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 8152.50 yuan/ton, down 5.23% from 8602.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight run naphtha fell in shock.

On September 30, the naphtha commodity index was 101.49, down 0.41 points from yesterday, 16.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and 140.27% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In September, the price of locally refined naphtha fluctuated and fell. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7900-8200 yuan/ton. In September, the international crude oil fell in shock, and the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The purchase was mainly just needed. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the refinery reduced the price for shipment. As of the week ended September 28, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory fell by 1.069 million barrels to a two-week low of 22.331 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 276000 barrels to a three week high of 15.641 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil depot fell by 1.046 million barrels to a five week low of 7.338 million barrels.

Upstream: The trend of international crude oil prices in September was volatile and downward. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the trade-off between the supply risk of Russian oil and the concern about economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve leading the global central bank to raise interest rates. The US strategic oil reserves fell continuously, hitting a 38 year low. OPEC+, an oil producing country, will increasingly demand for reducing inventory and increasing oil prices, and its idle capacity has been very limited, so it will be very difficult to increase production in the later period. Moreover, Western sanctions against Russia are still escalating, the effective period of the oil shipping ban is getting closer and closer, and the supply side is still on the high side in the near future.

Downstream: Toluene rose slightly in the first ten days of September and then weakened, and recovered slightly in the second ten days of September. The price of toluene was 7780 yuan/ton on September 1 and 7700 yuan/ton on September 28, down 1.03% from the beginning of the month. In September, mixed xylene rose in the first ten days and began to weaken in the middle of the year. The price of mixed xylene was 8090 yuan/ton on September 1 and 8050 yuan/ton on September 28, down 0.49% from the beginning of the month. The price of paraxylene rose slightly in September. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, 2.27% higher than the price of 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business community, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in September, with limited naphtha cost support. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the refinery was active in shipping, and the deal was light. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future will focus on the weak.