Recently, the domestic butyl acrylate market has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, and the logic of this round of price rebound has been sorted out from the dimensions of cost, supply, demand, and industry entity operations, presenting a complete picture of the phased changes in the chemical monomer market.
1、 Market price trend: rapid repair in the low range
Data monitoring shows that in early July, the average transaction price of butyl acrylate in the East China region fell to 6750 yuan/ton, hitting the bottom range of prices in the past three years. Market transactions are mainly based on low inventory and urgent replenishment, with no sustained upward support logic. Since mid July, the market price has opened a continuous upward channel. As of July 16th, the mainstream quotation in the region has risen to 7850 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1100 yuan/ton in the interval; On July 15th, the ex factory quotation for butyl acrylate in the North China region of China, a leading domestic enterprise, was adjusted to 8300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 800 yuan/ton. The significant price adjustment by the leading enterprise led to a synchronous shift in the market’s spot center of gravity. By mid to late July, the transaction range of the mainstream domestic market remained stable at 8000-8300 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 15% compared to the low point at the beginning of the month, and the market completed a bottoming out and rebound trend.
2、 Core driving factors for price increase
（1） Rigid increase in upstream raw material costs
Acrylic is the core raw material for the production of butyl acrylate. At the beginning of this round of market trend, the spot price of acrylic acid rose first, coupled with the disturbance of international geopolitical situation, which pushed up the prices of basic energy products such as crude oil and propane. The cost of the propylene industry chain rose synchronously, and the cumulative cost increase on the raw material side exceeded 1200 yuan/ton, directly forming a bottom support for the price of butyl acrylate and reversing the previous cost inversion and industry loss pattern. The rise in upstream raw material prices has formed a top-down transmission chain, driving the simultaneous increase in ex factory prices of ester products such as acrylic acid and butyl acrylate.
（2） Top production enterprises concentrate on raising prices, while the supply side tightens
The leading enterprises in the domestic butyl acrylate industry have synchronously adjusted their factory quotations, and the expectation of market supply contraction has increased. From July 14th to 16th, multiple companies increased their quotations for acrylic acid and butyl acrylate products across the entire line, with a single price adjustment of up to 800 yuan/ton in some regions; Wanhua Chemical continuously raised product prices from July 13th to 15th, with a single increase of 200-400 yuan/ton; Huayi Group is synchronously following up on price adjustments, with a single increase of 100-500 yuan/ton.
At the same time, multiple production facilities in the industry have experienced reduced production and negative load operations, resulting in a decrease in the available shipment volume of enterprise spot goods. The overall inventory in the market has fallen back to the low level of the year, and the low inventory state has strengthened the confidence of spot prices and eased the previous loose supply situation.
（3） Downstream industries urgently need to replenish inventory and release demand support
Butyl acrylate is mainly used in downstream industries such as coatings, water-based lotion and adhesives. In the first ten days of July, downstream lotion enterprises concentrated on carrying out contract picking and spot replenishment operations, centralized release of just needed procurement, consumption of market circulation resources, and improvement of the current situation of light transactions in the early stage. Under the background of continuous rising raw material prices, the downstream lotion product quotations were raised on a trial basis, and the price transmission channel of the industrial chain was gradually opened, forming a two-way positive market between supply and demand.

3、 The impact of industrial chain linkage
The price increase of butyl acrylate has driven synchronous fluctuations in upstream and downstream products. The demand for upstream acrylic monomers is expected to improve, and market quotations are synchronously strengthening; Products such as methyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate in the same industry chain maintained a narrow adjustment, while isooctyl acrylate saw a slight increase; Styrene, MMA and other lotion supporting raw materials rose at the same time. In the middle and late July, the mainstream market price of styrene was 8750-8800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of nearly 1000 yuan. The MMA market price stood above 10300 yuan/ton. The cost of all lotion raw materials plate rose at the same time, and the cost pressure of middle and downstream production enterprises increased significantly.
4、 Prediction of future market operation
From the perspective of comprehensive industry information, the short-term butyl acrylate market is still supported by both cost and low inventory, and the probability of maintaining a strong spot price in early August is relatively high. In the medium to long term, the industry’s plan to resume production of equipment is gradually being implemented, and the estimated production in August has significantly increased compared to the previous month. The increase in supply will gradually alleviate the current tight spot market situation; The terminal demand of downstream coatings and lotion industry has limited increase, and the space for continuous sharp price rise is limited. The market may change from unilateral upward movement to interval shock operation.
Industry institutions remind that the core market observation indicators in the future will focus on three dimensions: the trend of upstream propylene raw material prices, the operating load of domestic butyl acrylate enterprises, and the operating rate of downstream terminal coating industry. The changes in these variables will directly determine the fluctuation range of market prices.