Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose slightly in September. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, 2.27% higher than the price of 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 26.76% higher than the previous year. The PX price rose slightly in September.

In September, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene rose slightly. In September, the international crude oil price fell, while the PX external market price remained high. As of September 29, the closing price was 1035-1037 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 1053-1055 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic paraxylene market has risen slightly.

In September, the international crude oil price declined by 9.29%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.23 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 87.18 dollars/barrel. The decline in crude oil price caused the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. In addition, the repeated outbreaks of the disease depressed the demand for crude oil, and the trend of international oil prices declined. As of the week of September 23, crude oil inventory increased by about 4.2 million barrels; Gasoline inventory decreased by about 1 million barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by about 438000 barrels. According to the US Federal Security and Environmental Law Enforcement Agency, affected by Hurricane Ian, the US Gulf of Mexico region saw 157706 barrels/day of oil production go offline on Wednesday, accounting for about 9% of the total production in the region. The weather affected the decline of US crude oil production. In addition, China’s crude oil imports fell sharply in August on a year-on-year basis, which depressed market confidence. The control brought about by the repeated epidemic situation dragged down oil demand. However, the price of domestic petrochemical products was relatively strong, and the price of paraxylene rose slightly.

In September, the domestic PTA spot market rose first and then fell. As of the end of the month, the average price in the East China market was 6378.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the beginning of the month. In September, the maintenance and restart of domestic plants coexisted. Mainstream suppliers gradually became negative, with a small increase in output. The industry’s operating rate was around 73%. However, PTA is still in a tight balance, the pattern of social inventory reduction continues, and the current supply of goods in the spot market is still tight. In September, the polyester and weaving industries in the downstream picked up significantly, with the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rising to more than 70%. The terminal consumption of “Jinjiu” has gradually entered the traditional peak season, orders have been placed in autumn and winter, and the demand for staged replenishment has been released. The polyester market kept consistent with PTA trend. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was not high. The polyester inventory was once again facing accumulation. The factory profits were further compressed, and large factories had plans to reduce production. On the whole, the slight rise of PTA price in the downstream is good for the domestic paraxylene market, and the price in the domestic paraxylene market is higher.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Although the downstream is in the traditional peak season, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, the pressure on polyester inventory rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA price rises are limited. Overall, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will remain stable in the future.