According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market recovered in September, and the price rebounded at the bottom. The monthly increase was 7.47%. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid in East China was 9800-10200 yuan/ton. The rise of raw materials has led to the improvement of cost, and the lower operating rate has eased the supply pressure. The manufacturer has raised prices to support the market, and the downstream just needs to follow up.
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In terms of market supply, the adipic acid operating rate was low this month, maintaining 40% for the whole month. The manufacturer generally raised the price, and the monthly collection price of Nevada rose twice, totaling 1000 yuan. The inventory pressure continues to ease, multiple sets of devices are overhauled, and Haili, Hualu and Huafeng have two sets of devices shut down for overhaul. In the last ten days, Haili has a set of devices for trial operation, but the supply is limited. In addition, Liaohua unit maintenance, Zhonghao single line operation, Hongding shutdown, other units’ load reduction operation, significant inventory reduction of enterprises, and reduced supply pressure are the main reasons for the price of adipic acid to go out of the rebound trend. In addition, the manufacturer’s profit continued to hang upside down before, which is also the reason why the enterprise stopped production or reduced the burden.
Trend of adipic acid industry chain
The above figure shows that adipic acid industry chain has improved significantly this month, and most products have turned red. From the perspective of the increase in the industrial chain, the performance of the upstream is weaker, and the resilience of adipic acid is stronger. In addition, the downstream PA66 has the largest increase compared with the upstream products. This shows that the profit pressure of enterprises in adipic acid and downstream areas has been significantly relieved.
Market Trend of Adipic Acid Upstream Pure Benzene
Pure benzene rose by 3.72% in shock this month, 1.55% higher than the same period last year. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the demand has improved significantly: the prices of most downstream products have risen, and the profitability has improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level. The price of pure benzene at the end of the month is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.
Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid
According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market of cyclohexanone stopped falling and recovered in September. The monthly increase was 3.66%, mainly due to the strong rigidity of raw material pure benzene and the support of cost. Downstream caprolactam rose steadily. Chemical fiber companies need to follow up. Driven by the good news of cyclohexanone, the low price decreased and the transaction focus increased. At the end of the month, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9900 yuan/ton.
Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66
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Terminal demand: continuous improvement in the downstream of adipic acid. The inventory consumption of adipic acid plants is double festival in the month. The goods preparation is started before the festival, and the purchasing intention of the purchasing terminal is enhanced. Take the downstream PA66 as an example, the market rebounded strongly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 increased by 11.24% in September, which is currently in the traditional peak demand season, and the demand of downstream factories has increased. The business confidence was enhanced and the trading atmosphere was improved. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 24750 yuan/ton.
In the later stage, the business community believed that the rise of pure benzene and cyclohexanone would provide action force for adipic acid, but the volatile decline of crude oil price in the later stage might limit the rise of pure benzene. Cost advantage or weakening in the later period. And the demand side is also showing more and more pressure, and the downstream resistance psychology is increasing. However, the supply side will still support its price, and the operating rate will remain low in the short term. Overall, the adipic acid growth will continue to slow down in October, with a high probability of stabilizing in the short term.
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