The focus of the domestic acetone market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year once again. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the national acetone market reported an average daily price of 4227 yuan/ton from December 1st to 4087 yuan/ton on December 19th, a decrease of 3.31%. The negotiated price for acetone in the East China market is 4050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1800 yuan/ton, or 30.34%, compared to 5867 yuan/ton in the same period of 2024. Currently, holders are affected by inventory pressure and weak mentality, and their offers are gradually loosening. The sluggish purchasing willingness of end-users has led to a concentration of actual transactions in the low price range, and sporadic traders are offering discounts to further lower the market focus.

Supply and demand pattern: A balance is formed between domestic production reduction and import supplementation, and inventory pressure still exists.
1. Supply side: Domestic production shrinks but import hedging: The operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is less than 80%, which is relatively low compared to previous periods. Although the domestic supply of goods has decreased year-on-year, the import volume of acetone in East China in December reached 50000 tons, of which 26000 tons have already arrived and 24000 tons are in transit. The port inventory is stable at 24000 tons, effectively filling the domestic reduction gap, and there is no substantial shortage of overall supply. two Demand side: Strong demand is the main focus, with insufficient willingness to replenish: downstream industries such as bisphenol A, isopropanol, MMA (methyl methacrylate), MIBK (methyl isobutyl ketone), etc. purchase mainly for strong demand, and there are limited proactive restocking players. The MIBK market has intensified its supply-demand contradiction, with prices dropping by 300 yuan/ton compared to November. Downstream demand for raw material acetone is strong; Although there is a demand for replenishment in the bisphenol A industry in December, the procurement of acetone is only maintained at an on-demand level, making it difficult to form an effective driving force. .
The prices of raw materials pure benzene and propylene continue to weaken
Since 2025, the price of pure benzene has fallen by more than 25% year-on-year, and the price of propylene fell below 6000 yuan/ton at the end of October, hitting a new low for the year, resulting in a significant weakening of the cost support for phenol ketone production. The “weak support” on the cost side makes production enterprises lack the motivation to raise prices, and may instead alleviate the pressure of losses by lowering prices and shipping.
Holders lack confidence in the future market: on the one hand, they are concerned about the further increase in inventory after the concentration of imported goods in transit arrives at the port, and on the other hand, they predict that downstream demand will be difficult to recover in the short term, so they tend to “fast in, fast out” to reduce risks; Terminal factories, based on the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, postpone their procurement plans and wait for signals of price stabilization, forming a negative cycle of “price decline demand wait-and-see inventory accumulation further decline”.

Business Society predicts that the spot price of acetone in East China will remain fluctuating within the range of 4050-4100 yuan/ton, with a high probability of showing a “narrow range fluctuation and slight decrease in center of gravity” trend. One is the increase in supply side pressure: the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to slightly increase, coupled with the concentration of 20000 tons of imported cargo on the way to the port, the port inventory may increase from 24000 tons to 28000 to 30000 tons, further highlighting the loose supply pattern. Secondly, it is difficult to improve the demand side: the operating rate of the bisphenol A industry is expected to slightly decrease, while the operating rates of the MMA and MIBK industries remain stable. The solvent industry purchases on demand, and the overall demand side lacks incremental growth, making it difficult to cope with supply pressure. Thirdly, the cost side support is limited: the raw material pure benzene and propylene markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the phenol ketone industry is still in a loss making state. The cost side is difficult to effectively support acetone prices, and the downward resistance to prices mainly comes from the reluctance of traders to sell at the current low level.