According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market will experience a broad downward trend in October 2025. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 8886.67 yuan/ton to 7516.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.42% during the period.
Early October: After the holiday, the overall operation of the butadiene market was weak, and the ex factory prices of domestic main refineries were widely lowered. The overall performance of downstream demand was poor, and the trend of the synthetic rubber market was weak, with low market entry enthusiasm and weak purchasing intentions. The actual transaction performance of the market was poor, lacking demand support, and the overall operation of the butadiene market was weak.
Late period: Late period: After entering late period, the butadiene market first stabilized and then fell, with insufficient downstream demand in the initial stage. The enthusiasm for entering the synthetic rubber market was low, and the purchasing intention for raw material butadiene was weak. The actual transaction performance of the market was poor, and the spot market operated weakly, with a slight downward adjustment. At the end of the month, due to the dual impact of the restart of maintenance equipment and the production of new production capacity, the overall supply side was relatively loose, and the external market continued to decline. There were many negative factors in the market, which led to a wide decline in the butadiene market at the end of the month. As of the 30th, the mainstream delivery price in Shandong region is between 7520-7650 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the crude oil market first fell and then rose in this cycle. The crude oil market was affected by negative factors in the first ten days. On the one hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, and the crude oil market continues to decline; On the other hand, the easing of the situation between Israel and Palestine, coupled with weakened demand from the United States, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariffs. In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has led to the end of the peak oil season in the United States, and the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, resulting in a rapid decline in international oil prices. After entering the second half of the year, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day. The market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The situation between Palestine and Israel has eased, and coupled with weakened demand from the United States, the issue of US tariffs has dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices; However, in the later stage, with the continuation of sanctions policies against some oil producing countries by Europe and the United States, coupled with reduced concerns about negative pressure caused by US tariffs and trade disputes, the crude oil market trend has risen. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.48 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract is $64.92 per barrel.
Supply side: As of October 30th, the listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month.

Demand side: Since October, some units have restarted and domestic butadiene production has rebounded. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a significant decrease in raw material butadiene prices and a significant shift in the cost center of butadiene rubber; In addition, the start of production of butadiene rubber in October first increased and then decreased, and the pressure on the supply side gradually eased; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Under the comprehensive influence, the price of butadiene rubber weakened and decreased in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 11670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Market forecast: In terms of supply, with the start of equipment and the production of new capacity, the market expects that the situation of loose supply in the future will continue for a period of time, and the overall performance of the supply side is bearish. On the demand side, although the synthetic rubber futures market has slightly strengthened, the market’s purchasing mentality still leans towards rigid demand, with low enthusiasm for entering the market and weak purchasing intentions. The actual transaction performance in the market is poor, and the demand side is bearish. Overall, under the weak supply-demand pattern, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate weakly in the near future, with a focus on downstream demand.