The development of the calcium carbide industry is deeply linked to energy structure and industrial policies, and by 2025, it will achieve a transformation to improve quality and efficiency, presenting characteristics such as supply optimization and demand differentiation; The tight supply-demand balance will continue in 2026, with policies and emerging demand leading the transformation.

（1） Price trend in 2025: high volatility followed by a downward trend, driven by multiple factors such as supply and demand, costs, and policies. The resumption of work and production at the beginning of the year drove prices up to 2733.33 yuan/ton; In the second quarter, Inner Mongolia’s production restrictions led to a contraction in supply, causing prices in North China to rise to 2800 yuan/ton; Starting from the third quarter, downstream maintenance and the release of new production capacity have led to weak demand, and prices have continued to fall, dropping to 2300 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price difference between Northwest China, East China, and South China is 400-600 yuan/ton, due to differences in resource costs and logistics, and strong industry price linkage.
（2） Supply side: Effective production capacity of 42 million tons per year (unchanged from 2024), with a 12 percentage point increase in the elimination rate of outdated devices below 100000 tons per year, and zombie production capacity of 3.5-4 million tons per year. 80% of the newly added production capacity of 2 million tons is for PVC and BDO integrated projects, with limited increase in commodity volume. The production capacity of the six provinces and regions in Northwest China accounts for 88% (33.21% in Inner Mongolia), with a top enterprise operating rate of over 75% and small-scale production capacity of less than 50%; The annual output was 38 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. From January to March, exports of 41000 tons (+48.17% year-on-year) flowed to RCEP countries, and the sustainability of growth is affected by Indian policies.
（3） On the demand side: PVC accounts for 78% of calcium carbide consumption, but due to the downturn in the real estate market and the squeeze of ethylene production, demand is weak; BDO has become the core engine with a demand contribution rate of 20%. The Inner Mongolia Phase II project has driven a demand increase of over 25%. BDO has added 1.63 million tons/year of production capacity throughout the year, and PBAT/PBS expansion has amplified indirect demand, resulting in stable PVA demand.
In terms of policy, 30% of production capacity will reach the energy efficiency benchmark, environmental protection costs will increase by 8% -10%, and local governments will promote the integration of coal and electricity; On the cost side, the price reduction of blue charcoal and limestone alleviates the pressure, while the high cost of electricity gives Northwest self owned power plants significant advantages; Technologically, the proportion of closed calcium carbide furnaces exceeds 90%, and advanced enterprises have reduced their electricity consumption per ton to 2600 kilowatt hours.
By 2025, the industry will complete its transformation from scale expansion to improving quality and efficiency, with core characteristics of price fluctuations, supply optimization, and demand differentiation.

2、 The price trend forecast for 2026 is expected to show a trend of “oscillation bottoming out and slight increase in the central area”, with a core operating range of 2200-2800 yuan/ton, and a slight rebound of 5% -8% in the price center compared to 2025. Supporting factors: shrinking supply due to the clearance of outdated production capacity, emerging demand support from BDO, and rigid cost support; Suppressing factors: PVC profit pressure restricts high price acceptance and adds integrated production capacity to supplement commodity volume. Short term fluctuations are influenced by downstream maintenance, power policies, and export markets.

（2） On the supply side, the addition of 2 million tons of production capacity is an integrated project with limited increase in commodity volume; Units with a capacity of less than 100000 tons per year will be fully withdrawn, and 2 million tons of outdated production capacity will be cleared, with CR10 rising to over 38%. The operating rate has rebounded to 75% -80%, with a production of 39 to 40 million tons; The expected export is 150000 to 200000 tons, and the dominant supply pattern in the northwest is solidified.
（3） On the demand side, there is a marginal recovery in PVC demand (with a growth rate of 3% -5%), while competition in ethylene production still exists; BDO drives demand growth by 8% -10%, while RCEP countries’ demand transmission overlaps, resulting in a 4% -6% increase in total demand for the year. The contribution rate of emerging fields has risen to over 25%.
From the perspective of Business Society, policies strictly control the addition of new production capacity, and the carbon market deepens cost pressures; Green electricity substitution at the cost end is the key to cost reduction at the top, with high environmental protection costs; Technology is deepening towards low carbonization and intelligence, and integration has become mainstream. Suggest that enterprises accelerate integration and green power layout, focus on BDO field, and promote low-carbon technology; Regulatory authorities coordinate the optimization of production capacity, improve green finance, and guide the response to international trade risks.