Commodity index: on April 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% C from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in April 2020, the production of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises had high inventory, and the overall quotation of this month showed a small fluctuation downward trend. This month’s main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860-900 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1200-1250 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1600-2000 yuan / ton in solid content, 28% yuan in price, 30% yuan in price. About 0 yuan / ton, the quotation at the end of the month is about 50-100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, down by 4.44%.

Upstream: according to the data of business agency, in April, the mainstream factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a trend of fluctuation, with 1 daily report of 253.33 yuan / ton, 10 days up to 270 yuan / ton, until 22 days after the quotation of 280 yuan / ton, it turned down to 29 daily reports of 196.67 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal. Downstream: the current water treatment market demand is still low, and enterprises generally reflect that this year’s goods are hard to sell, engineering negotiation is difficult, and the cycle is long.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost returned to normal. In April, the overall production was normal. Due to the difficulty of shipment, some enterprises still had high inventory, which affected their production.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current market is generally weak due to the poor demand and high inventory. The high-speed recovery of charges will start on May 6, and the transportation cost will be increased. Affected by the cost, polyaluminium chloride may be slightly increased in the future market to hedge the risk of market decline caused by weak demand, and it is more likely to stabilize after a small increase in the overall future market.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April, the domestic market price of polyester filament showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester fdy150d / 96F and polyester fdy150d / 96F in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported as 4900-5050 yuan / ton, 6400-6900 yuan / ton and 5550-5600 yuan / ton respectively. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of crude oil cooperation and production reduction, the raw material market was strongly supported, the market speculative bottom reading and replenishment market appeared, the volume of transactions of polyester filament products was large, and the price rose slightly, but with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market transaction atmosphere fell, and the price began to fall on April 10, among which polyester POY declined significantly, as of the 27th, polyester POY (150D / 48F) market The average price is 4944 yuan / ton, down 7.83% compared with that of the 10th day.

Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

Product: April 10, 2020 April 27, up and down April, up and down year on year

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5364 4944 – 7.83% 1.02% – 43.97%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5905 5565 – 5.76% 5.60% – 39.62%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7176 6801 – 5.23% – 3.10% – 34.49%

At the raw material end, the crude oil plummeted, the market mentality was frustrated, and the energy sector sentiment was depressed. Although the recent price has stopped falling and picked up, it still maintains a relatively low trend. The global crude oil demand has been sharply reduced, but the supply end is still showing an increasing trend. Under the pressure of storage capacity, the market fundamentals are still weak. In March, affected by the weak domestic demand, PTA factory inventory pressure is large, domestic PTA production enterprises have to repair and stop production, PTA operation rate fell to 69% in the middle and late March. With the end of the maintenance period and the impact of crude oil weakening, the decline of chemicals closer to the upstream is more and more big. Under the benefit of naphtha and PX, the PTA processing fee once rose to 805 yuan / ton last week. Under such a high processing fee level, the production enthusiasm of PTA plant is very high, which leads to the recent PTA operation rate has been at the level of more than 90%, significantly higher than the same period of previous years. At the same time, the demand side has not improved significantly, so PTA is still in the obvious accumulation in the whole April. Up to now, PTA social inventory is 3.35 million tons. It should be noted that with the continuous production of new devices, the PTA capacity in China has reached 52.255 million tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the previous capacity base, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.

Statistics of recent PTA plant changes

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Ningbo Yisheng 200 stopped short on April 20 and has now returned to normal operation

Ningbo Yisheng 220 postponed maintenance to May

Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to stop for maintenance from May 6, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 was overhauled on April 17, with a planned overhaul period of 1 month

Hanbang Petrochemical 60 failed to stop on April 17, and has been restarted

Yadong Petrochemical will stop for maintenance from April 25, and restart on April 29

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Jialong Petrochemical 60 stopped for maintenance on August 2, and the restart time is to be determined

The downstream weaving industry is in a downturn. At present, the trading volume of light textile city is significantly lower than that of the same period in recent years, and the market trading is light. From the perspective of the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 26, the comprehensive operating rate was 48.00%. In the face of the coming May Day holiday, some enterprises have begun to take holidays. At the same time, due to the impact of this public health event, the export orders of weaving foreign trade were cancelled or postponed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, the cumulative export amount of China’s textiles and clothing was 45.26 billion US dollars, down 17.7% compared with the same period of last year, including 22.69 billion US dollars for textiles, down 14.6% compared with the same period of last year, and 22.57 billion US dollars for clothing, down 20.6% compared with the same period of last year.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that due to the impact of crude oil decline, the cost center of gravity has shifted down, PTA has continued to accumulate the pressure of storage, and there is no turning point to go to storage, high inventory or become the normal state of PTA, and the current PTA fundamentals are not well boosted. The downstream terminal weaving foreign trade order is missing, the domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and near the May Day holiday, some weaving enterprises have plans to stop work in advance for the holiday, there are negative expectations. Affected by upstream and downstream drag, polyester filament market is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the main domestic styrene prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week and began to rise slightly on Thursday. The price of sample enterprises on Monday (April 20) was 5150.00 yuan / ton, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (April 24) was 5000.00 yuan / ton, down 2.91%, 40.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week’s styrene market fell slightly after a weak rebound. East China on April 20: East China styrene closed at 5150 yuan / ton. On April 24, East China styrene closed at 4950-5100 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 20, South China styrene closed at 5100-5200 yuan / ton, and on April 24, South China styrene closed at 4950-5000 yuan / ton, down by 100 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week’s styrene market was mainly volatile, with a slight decline in the overall market.

Industrial chain:

The trend of international crude oil fluctuated sharply. The overall oil price fluctuated downward. At the beginning of the week, the oil price fell sharply. Wti05 contract delivery showed a historical negative value. But on Thursday, the crude oil price was gradually put on the agenda with the renewed tension of the “US Iraq” relationship and the production reduction of OPEC + and other oil producing countries. The oil price rebounded strongly, styrene market sentiment rose, and the price stopped rising on Thursday. In the upstream, the price of pure benzene was stable compared with last week, while the price of ethylene declined, while the price of PS, EPS and ABS in the downstream decreased slightly. Styrene inventory in East China port fell this week, but it is still higher than the same period last year. At the end of April, the amount of styrene imported from East China increased, and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased. It is expected that the operation rate of domestic styrene plant will reach about 74.5%. In the short term, it is difficult to change the situation that styrene supply exceeds demand. Although the downstream of styrene still keeps considerable profits, there is little new demand for styrene, and most of it is pre-sale.

3、 Future outlook

As a whole, the whole styrene market lacks strong support points. In May, the situation of styrene supply surplus still exists, but crude oil has a great impact on the styrene industry chain, and the crude oil price is still likely to rebound. It is expected that next week, styrene will be mainly consolidated in a weak shock with a price of 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Price trend:

On April 25, crude benzene commodity index was 35.23, unchanged from yesterday, 73.28% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 15.36% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the domestic pure benzene market and the external market are lower this week. WTI crude oil futures in May fell 55.90 US dollars to – 37.63 US dollars / barrel on the 20th of this week. The start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still at a low level this week. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is large. The bidding price of crude benzene enterprises this week is adjusted. As of Friday, the quotation in Shandong region is around 2050 yuan / ton, about 800 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil, the business community believes that the oil price will still fluctuate in a wide range at a low level in the near future. Although there are some favorable releases at the supply side in the short term, considering the continuous impact of the epidemic, the problem at the demand side is the most critical factor restricting the oil price at present. Even though trump said that the economy of the United States will restart in May, the effect may be greatly reduced in terms of the current situation of the epidemic in the United States. In particular, the global crude oil inventory has risen sharply, and the pressure on storage capacity will only become more and more serious. The growth of commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States is much larger than expected. It is also predicted that the global oil storage space may be exhausted in the next few weeks, and the operating rate of refineries may fall again, which will also force oil producing countries to further reduce production, and crude oil may be in epidemic in the future To seek rebalancing under the condition of low demand caused by emotion.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

Three, trend forecast:

Next week is the last trading week before the May Day holiday. Near the small and long holiday, some manufacturers should have certain purchase plans. It is expected that crude benzene prices will rise slightly.

1、 Price trend:

On April 19, crude benzene commodity index was 42.46, flat with that of yesterday, down 67.79% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.03% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Sinopec’s pure benzene rose 150 yuan / ton on Tuesday this week, driven by pure benzene, the bidding price of crude benzene rose this week, up to 2950 yuan / ton in Shandong as of Friday. In Shandong Province, the price has been raised due to the shortage of goods, but the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been intensively overhauled in the near future, with a low operating rate of about 40%, and little support for crude benzene demand.

Industrial chain: crude oil: OPEC + oil producing countries finally reached the largest production reduction agreement in history, but the strength was not as expected by the market, unable to offset the impact of public health events on demand collapse. This week investors returned to reason after a brief “euphoria” over the agreement to cut production and crude oil fell back. Brent fell $3.59, or 15.13%, this week from April 9, while WTI fell $3.79, or 13.15%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 69.83% and WTI by 58.81%. Pure benzene: after last week’s bottom reading, the market speculation began to slow down this week. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3050 yuan / ton. East China’s port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the downstream factories in the north were active in purchasing, the spot supply in the market was insufficient and the price was high. The East China Shandong arbitrage window opened to support the pure benzene market. Downstream products: this week, the market price of styrene fell, and the rising sentiment in the market dissipated. Most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales to maintain stable shipment. On Friday, Shandong’s price was 5150 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from last week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

It is estimated that the world crude oil consumption will shrink by about 20 million barrels / day in 2020. If demand collapses, without strong intervention from the supply side, it will be difficult for oil prices to strengthen. Moreover, the short-term agreement on production reduction cannot offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market cannot get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, crude oil consumption enters into the off-season from April to may, and seasonal factors will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, thus making the oil price face the risk of downward focus. In terms of pure benzene, East China’s supply enters Shandong, or its price is restrained. The downstream demand is mainly rigid, and it is expected that the price support of crude benzene in the future is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2513.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2350.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.50%, down 25.46% compared with the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 61.57 on April 17.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend was 2400 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer of calcium carbide this week was 2400 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend was 2350 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s offer of calcium carbide this week was 23 yuan / ton 00 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 100 yuan / ton.

At the end of this week, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2300 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2350 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan carbon fell this week. Overall, the drop was about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of small materials is 560 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 580 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is 650 yuan / ton. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price decreased from 5675.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5657.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.31%, 16.06% compared with the same period last year. PVC prices fell this week, the market tends to be low, and the purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide is also low. Overall, PVC market this week has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. In the late April, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is expected to drop slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on April 16 was 3226.67 yuan / ton, down 1.63% compared with the average price of 3280 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1 day), and down 9.53% compared with the same period last year. On April 16, the LNG commodity index was 79.53, down 0.66 points from yesterday, down 61.94% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.51% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The figure above shows the price trend of Shaanxi and some parts of Inner Mongolia, showing the up and down market. LNG prices fell continuously before the festival to the lowest point of 3146.67 yuan / ton, with a decline rate of 4.06%. After the festival, the mode of continuous rise was started, reaching the highest point of 3280 yuan / ton on the 13th, and began to decline after the 15th, forming an overall “n” trend. After the festival, the rising trend did not continue. In just a few days, the market returned to calm again. It can be said that the market came and went in a hurry.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of April 16, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3180 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 2850 yuan / ton, Shanxi Qinshui Xinao LNG price is 3300 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd LNG price of Ren company is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua is 3600 yuan / ton.

In April, heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the lower reaches of natural gas decreased gradually, the LNG market in China gradually entered the off-season. In addition, the intake gas continuously gave way to profits, which impacted the domestic LNG market. The delivery pressure of liquid plants was high, the inventory was high, and the pressure of LNG was low. During the Qingming holiday, due to the restriction of Expressway on dangerous chemical vehicles, many places failed to deliver goods, and the inventory was high. In some areas, the quotation was lowered and the goods were shipped. However, the demand for LNG filling station increased, which led to the price rising in some areas. After the holiday, the terminal began to replenish goods mainly from the filling station. At the same time, in April, the state vigorously promoted the resumption of production of enterprises, which led to a certain increase in industrial gas consumption In addition, after the price reduction and promotion before the festival, the delivery situation in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places improved, inventory decreased, the willingness of liquid plants to continue to decline weakened, and the price began to rise. At present, some factories will enter the maintenance season, the market supply may be slightly reduced, and manufacturers are willing to increase prices. In addition, due to the low LNG price before the festival, the downstream market is active, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is good. The delivery of liquid plants is smooth, the liquid level is generally not high, and the price is gradually rising. However, due to the impact of the drop in the spot price of imported LNG and the impact on the domestic LNG market, there is a lack of practical support for the liquid price, which has been under pressure. At present, the industry has entered the off-season, with sufficient market supply and insufficient demand follow-up, it is difficult for domestic LNG market to have a large increase.

Recently, crude oil price war fluctuated violently. Crude oil futures in New York fell to $19.2/barrel on the 15th, but the continuous decline of crude oil temporarily has limited impact on the natural gas industry. At present, the decline of domestic LNG price is mainly due to low demand and high inventory in the industry during the off-season. However, the continuous decline of international oil price has a certain impact on the long-term price of LNG import. The long-term price is linked to the international oil price in the past few months. If the price of imported gas is at a low level for a long time, there will be no small pressure on the domestic LNG market.

At present, the natural gas industry is recovering, but affected by public health events, the growth rate is slow, the situation of supply exceeding demand is difficult to reverse in a short period of time, and it still needs to wait for full resumption of production to drive demand. China imported 130 million tons of crude oil from January to March, 24.66 million tons of natural gas from January to March, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1% in the total amount of imported natural gas, 26.25 billion cubic meters of total natural gas supply (excluding gas storage), and 1.0% in the apparent consumption of natural gas.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 16, 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with dimethyl ether (2.57%) rising. There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are Brent crude oil (- 6.45%), diesel oil (- 2.04%) and gasoline (- 1.81%). The average price of this day was – 0.7%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business association, at present, the LNG market is stepping into the off-season, the downstream demand is general, the price of liquid in many places tends to be stable, and some areas begin to callback. It is expected that the price will mainly be consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic toluene market price stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3290 yuan / ton, up 7.87% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: under the good boost of crude oil trend, the price of toluene producers and distributors has been raised. As a result, the price of toluene in China has risen sharply. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3400 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil: before Thursday, under the expectation of OPEC + production reduction, the overall trend of wide fluctuation and climbing was maintained. On Friday, the new draft of OPEC + production reduction agreement was finalized, but there were still differences among some oil producing countries. OPEC Representatives announced that they would restart the negotiations on Friday. With the deepening of the negotiations, the uncertainty increased, and the outside world’s attitude towards the strength of production reduction and all parties remained Doubt, leading to international crude oil overnight ups and downs, late plummeting. As of Friday day, spot Brent rose 0.25%, Brent futures rose 1.07%, WTI futures fell 6.73%, and Dubai futures fell 4.65%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, at present, Shanghai’s delivery quotation of goods with tickets refers to about 10200 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the TDI market will rebound in the next week, paying close attention to the factory’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 462 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 480 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will rebound in shock next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, on the supply cost side, the new production reduction agreement draft of OPEC + oil producing countries is settled, but there are still differences between some oil producing countries, and the international crude oil price may still fluctuate and grind to the bottom. In the medium term, we will see the demand side, the inflection point of the epidemic and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction, worries about the global economic recession caused by the continuous spread of overseas epidemics, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of construction of domestic downstream enterprises. Overall, it is expected that toluene prices in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will fluctuate and callback next week, and toluene prices in the domestic market will follow the shock adjustment next week.

1、 Price trend

On April 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province was generally stable, and some enterprises increased sharply to make up for the increase trend, but most of them are mainly stable today. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock. At the end of the month, it fell sharply again, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton, on the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton, on the third day, the price of some enterprises slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, after the Qingming period, the price of propylene steadily increased, on the seventh day, it began to rise by 100 yuan / ton, on the tenth day, it rose by 200-300 yuan / ton, and on the 11th day of Saturday, it was generally increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton, on the 12th day of Sunday, it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton, on Monday After the sharp rise in the weekend, the market may need to digest. Today, the price has not changed. Some of the soaring enterprises have suspended the quotation today. Now, the market transaction is still between 8000-12000 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

As far as propylene itself is concerned, its storage capacity is not high, long-term inventory cost is large, and tank capacity pressure is large.

Affected by the international situation, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price.

On the other hand, due to the impact of public health events, PP fiber materials have been widely concerned and demand has surged this year due to the application of masks. After April, especially before and after the Qingming Festival, the demand has suddenly increased, and the price of melt blown cloth has skyrocketed, and the raw materials are more favorable. The modified special material in PP is the melt blown cloth material, and the price has risen significantly. However, PP futures continued to rise last week, and there was a trading limit on Friday. Today’s market is still up, but there is no previous increase, which is conducive to the recovery of propylene price.

In fact, the total demand of masks for raw materials is limited. And because of the sharp rise of propylene, in terms of the rational market price of propylene at this stage, other downstream products of propylene are in a state of loss, the degree of loss may be large or small, but it is not conducive to their production and sales, so there are rumors of production suspension or reduction in other downstream products, which creates a certain pressure on the rise of propylene.

At present, there is good news about the reduction of crude oil production. PP in the downstream is rising obviously but the follow-up is limited. Most of the other downstream are affected or have plans to reduce production, or will cause pressure on propylene sales. Therefore, it is expected that the price of propylene will start to fluctuate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11100 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market was 11050 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.45% within the week. The price fell 8.49% month on month and 39.53% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week’s news was short of guidance. In terms of the factory, the guidance price of keschuang continued to hang flat, with little support for the market. At the same time, Ruian’s offer was significantly reduced from 1100 yuan / ton to 10200 yuan / ton, which pushed a further force on the declining MDI. In addition, although the demand side is going back to work and production is stable, it will still take time for resale, with limited consumption of raw materials and weak demand. Therefore, both from the supply side and from the demand side are “boosting” the decline of MDI market, and the trend of crude oil on the macro side is still unclear, which reflects that MDI market makes the market operators more cautious.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market is up and down. Foreign prices are mainly rising, while CFR China’s foreign market upside supports domestic buying prices. The number of new production cuts at the OPEC + meeting was less than expected, and the epidemic continued to reduce demand, and there were still concerns about overcapacity. Oil prices closed lower on the 9th. Sinopec’s listing price was raised, but the negotiation was less than the market expectation, and the price in East China fell. There is still a need to focus on upstream energy price trends. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Aniline: this week, the domestic aniline market continued to decline, the demand for terminal rubber additives was still low, and the downstream market maintained rigid demand. At the beginning of the week, the manufacturer’s inventory accumulated a lot. Although the price of pure benzene continued to rise in the later period, the delivery pressure was still there. At the end of the week, Shandong Jinling led the decline, and the market kept falling. After the profit was released, the downstream market improved, and the manufacturer’s inventory gradually digested, but the aniline profit It is still at a high level, and the starting load of the manufacturer is basically stable. In terms of devices, Huatai devices were temporarily overhauled earlier this week, while the rest remained stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: under the guidance of short-term lack of information, business club aggregate MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market will maintain a weak shock next week.