1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, on February 25, the domestic price of carbon black was 7500 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation. The price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and this month’s carbon black market was mainly volatile.

2、 Market analysis

Before the Spring Festival, most rubber products enterprises have limited stock before the festival. After the festival, new orders will be purchased, and the demand for carbon black will increase. In the short term, as the orders of carbon black enterprises are still sufficient and the market profit is high, the operating rate of carbon black market will continue to maintain a high level. After the majority of carbon black enterprises returned to the market during the Spring Festival holiday, 50% of the carbon black enterprises started higher than before the festival, and 46% of the carbon black enterprises basically recovered to the pre Festival level, and the carbon black market started at a high level.

As of February 18, the operating rate of carbon black sample enterprises was 74.76%, 6.81% higher than that of February 10. The recent rise of coal tar price has formed a certain support for the cost of carbon black, which is good for the price mentality of the industry, but the impact is limited; The downstream tire and rubber products enterprises have resumed work one after another, the rubber tube industry has high profits and tight goods, and the domestic demand for tires is improving. However, the tire manufacturers in Shandong’s main production areas are not quick to digest the carbon black before the festival, resulting in the phenomenon of carbon black truck unloading and detention. Although the recovery of tire enterprises is good,

Downstream auto sales continue to recover

Carbon black is an indispensable raw material for rubber industry. Because carbon black can improve the wear resistance of tire tread, greatly increase the mileage of tire, and also improve the tensile strength and tear strength of rubber compound, carbon black is widely used in manufacturing various types of tires and other rubber products. In the downstream of carbon black, the demand for tires accounted for 70%, other rubber products accounted for 25%, and non rubber products accounted for 5%.

Affected by the epidemic situation, in the first half of 2020, the sales volume of automobiles decreased significantly, the supply and demand of carbon black industry continued to deteriorate, and the domestic carbon black operating rate dropped to 45% in June. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, the operating rate of the carbon black industry has gradually increased, and has now returned to the level above that of the same period in 2019, driven by the improvement of downstream automobile demand and overseas single transfer.

Carbon black enters profit recovery period

In addition, from the profit changes of carbon black enterprises, the current market price of carbon black is higher than that of the same period last year, while the price of coal tar, an important raw material in the upstream, is lower than that of last year. Therefore, with the increase of the price difference between carbon black and coal tar, carbon black enterprises have entered the profit recovery period, and the performance can be released!

3、 Future forecast

In addition to the continuous recovery of the domestic automobile industry, the demand for tires is guaranteed, which strongly supports the demand for carbon black. Under the influence of the epidemic, the export orders of domestic tire factories are also large, and the demand for upstream carbon black continues to increase. At present, the supply and demand pattern of carbon black industry is gradually tightening. It is expected that the price of carbon black will be further raised!

Spot market: after the Spring Festival, a number of pure polyester yarn enterprises raise prices, “up” sound. According to the test data of the business club, as of February 25, the quotation of Weifang runfengda textile pure polyester yarn has risen sharply, with the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn of 15000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival; the quotation of Weifang Guanjie textile pure polyester yarn has risen sharply, with the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn of 15000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival; the quotation of Weifang Honghua textile pure polyester yarn has risen slightly, with the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn rising slightly The price is 14800 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival; Nantong Suzhong textile continuously increased its quotation in February, and the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn reached 15000 yuan / ton by the 25th, which is 1200 yuan / ton higher than that in January; Gaoyi Delida textile also increased its quotation continuously, which is 1100 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: futures situation. After the Spring Festival, the staple fiber futures market rose well. As of February 25, the staple fiber main contract hit the trading limit, up 6% to 8526 yuan / ton, reaching a new high since listing. Spot prices, 1.4d polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and other places generally increased to 7300-7400 yuan / ton. At present, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber are 215% and 157% respectively, and the product inventory has dropped to – 5 days, which is significantly lower than that of the same period in previous years. Polyester short-term benefits exceeded 1000 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: the terminal market returns to work orderly after the festival, and the return time is earlier than the scheduled time. As of February 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to more than 48%, and the weaving industry is expected to return to normal operation in early March. At present, the raw materials are rising rapidly, which aggravates the market risk. Therefore, the downstream companies are cautious about the market and make more inquiries, but they are still hesitant to place orders, and the orders have not improved significantly. However, the textile peak season in March and April is coming. Although the textile peak season in the first half of last year basically disappeared due to the epidemic, the peak season in March and April in any previous year will promote the textile market to a certain extent. This year, the domestic epidemic has been under control, and the overseas epidemic has gradually ushered in an inflection point. The worst time of the textile market has passed, and the peak season of the first half of this year will surely come.

Suggestions: before the Spring Festival, the yarn inventory is relatively low, and the yarn price can be adjusted rapidly with the fluctuation of polyester staple fiber, which can minimize the risk; the number of unfinished and undelivered orders before the Spring Festival is not large, and the impact of yarn price adjustment on medium and long line orders is limited; the capital flow of yarn mills is relatively abundant, and the operation pressure from March to April is not prominent, so it can receive orders for downstream weaving enterprises, garment factories and terminals Set aside enough time for acceptance and digestion to pave the way for the smooth rise of yarn price. Future recommendations continue to focus on the impact of raw material prices and downstream demand.

According to the price monitoring of business association, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to rise in February 2021. As of February 24, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 76400 yuan / ton, up 11.37% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68600 yuan / ton on February 1). On February 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 81600 yuan / ton, which increased by 12.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 72800 yuan / ton on February 1). Until the 24th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 73000-80000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was 76000-85000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the prices of industrial carbon and electric carbon continue to rise this month. Although the Spring Festival holiday is in the middle of this month, the price is stable for the time being, but the price rise trend before and after the Spring Festival holiday is still gratifying. Before the Spring Festival holiday, large lithium salt factories in Jiangxi and Sichuan have stopped production one after another, and most lithium salt factories have stopped quoting, but the price is still in the state of market-oriented and continues to rise. In addition, there are many logistics stoppages, which will greatly increase the transportation cost in the near future and drive the overall price up.

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the market sales of lithium carbonate began to recover, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continued to increase, and the market demand has also been greatly improved. In February, lithium carbonate enterprises had more maintenance and took a longer time, which would also have a certain impact on the production and supply in February, which made the prices of lithium carbonate enterprises rise to varying degrees after the holidays.

After the festival, the price of downstream lithium hydroxide is rising. At present, the domestic spot is relatively tight, the market demand is increasing, and the rising price of lithium carbonate also plays a leading role in the upward price of lithium hydroxide. On the other hand, the price of LiFePO4 power market has increased in a wide range. At present, the purchasing of raw materials is cautious, the market is bullish, and new orders have increased, but most of them are contract customers.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, at present, the spot volume of lithium carbonate market is relatively stable. However, due to the rising price, it is reluctant to sell, and the continuous favorable demand of downstream market, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of February 23, 2021, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13816 yuan / ton, up 7.11% from the beginning of February. From the beginning of January 2021, the domestic viscose staple fiber price continued to rise, to the recent straight-line rise in prices. Chemical fiber factories have enough orders and report high.

Market of wood pulp and cotton linter

According to the data monitoring of the business news agency: with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the market operating rate recovered, downstream stock and other factors, the demand side increased, and the price of domestic pulp continued to rise; on February 22, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 6812.5 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival.

Since December, the supply of cotton linter has been reduced, and the production and sales of downstream chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants have increased. Cotton linter due to rising costs, less volume, cotton linter partial price has improved, cotton linter overall stable bullish.

Downstream cotton yarn Market

The price of rayon yarn continued to rise due to the cost, and the transaction performance was good. As of February 22, according to the data monitoring of the business society, orders increased after the festival, and the quotations of rayon yarn manufacturers increased significantly. The average ex factory price of 30s rayon yarn in Shandong was 19000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

The price of viscose staple fiber continues to rise. With the help of the whole industrial chain, some buyers chase up and buy. After the downstream mills return to work, they also need to replenish. At present, the demand gap is large, and the factory inventory is low, so the price will continue to be strong.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 2143.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2176.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.56%, 29.56% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 101.24 on February 21.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2160 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2170 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: the agricultural demand started gradually, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them were market-oriented, and there was demand potential in the later industry. Supply side: on the supply side, at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 159000 tons. The manufacturers have little pressure on shipping. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell greatly, from 3000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 3.33%, 5.23% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly this week, from 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 0.05% 50%, up 29.24% over the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the lower reaches of urea was temporarily stable, at 7200.00 yuan / ton, up 21.35% compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Before and after the Spring Festival, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was increased twice, with a total increase of 650 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, RMB 5800 / T will be implemented, of which RMB 5750 / T will be implemented by Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and RMB 800 / T will be increased in February.

Price fluctuation of domestic main hydrobenzene market before and after Spring Festival in February 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, 1-day price, 5-day price, 8-day price, 19 day price, up and down this month

East China, 4650-48005100-52005300-54005850-5950, + 1175

In Shandong Province, 4050-41004900-51004900-51005800-5900, + 1775

In February 2021, the market price of hydrobenzene in East China rose to 5350 yuan / ton before the festival and 5900 yuan / ton after the festival. During the Spring Festival, the price rose by 550 yuan / ton, with a cumulative rise of 1175 yuan / ton this month.

During the Spring Festival holiday, affected by the historical extremely cold weather in the United States, the crude oil production in the United States is expected to drop by more than 40%, and the international oil price rises accordingly. A number of pure benzene plants in the United States were also affected by the bad weather and stopped unscheduled. During the holidays, the pure benzene external market and downstream styrene external market rose sharply. Under the macro favorable blessing, the main domestic traders and petrochemical enterprises have followed the rise after the opening of the festival, and the market price has increased significantly. On the 18th, the domestic chemical futures market made a good start, with pure benzene and styrene, the main downstream product, rising by more than 14%. Immediately, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, and implemented 5800 yuan / ton. As an alternative product of pure benzene, downstream hydrogenated benzene basically keeps the same trend with pure benzene. After the opening of the festival, the market of hydrogenated benzene keeps rising, with an increase of over 10%.

In terms of crude benzene, the market gradually returned to normal after the festival. However, as orders were signed at the beginning of February until the 23rd and 24th of the end of the month, the current market price remained stable. However, the price of pure benzene is still expected to rise, and the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises have better profits, higher prices and better demand for crude benzene. It is expected that the price of a new round of bidding on the 23rd will rise significantly.

In the future, the business news agency believes that the current international oil price is still expected to rise due to the bad weather in the United States, and the trend of pure benzene is good in the external market. The macro positive factors support the downstream product hydrogenated benzene, which is mainly bullish in the future. It is expected that the price will rise sharply after the festival, and the future trend will continue to be high.

The first day after the festival, the domestic BDO market rose sharply. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of February 19, the average producer price of domestic BDO was 19425 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 48.00% and a year-on-year increase of 95.23%.

The domestic BDO market continues to rise. At present, the supply side of the market is still tight, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the offer is high-end. The bidding price was 22000-22050 yuan / ton, which boosted the confidence of the industry and stimulated the pursuit mentality of the middle and lower reaches. The market center of gravity rose sharply.

In terms of equipment, great wall energy takes turns to replace the catalyst. I heard that Xinye is expected to stop for five days around February 15 due to the difficulty of hydrogen supply.

The current factory strong offer, tight supply situation continues. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.

This week, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated in a narrow range, but traders had strong expectations for the butadiene market after the festival. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6051 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.09% in the week, 21.93% month on month, and 22.16% year-on-year.

The domestic butadiene market is dominated by small consolidation. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the automobile transportation capacity of the market is limited, and the spot inventory of downstream raw materials is relatively abundant, so the current spot trading atmosphere is relatively cold. In view of the relatively concentrated overhaul of butadiene and downstream industries after the festival, most businesses have stronger expectations for the market after the festival, and there is also a demand for long-term sources of goods in the downstream. Therefore, the atmosphere of long-term sources of goods is on the rise in the later part of this week, bringing a certain impetus to the spot market. However, in the external market, we heard that the transaction price of Southeast Asian goods was not high, and some goods from Taiwan were bidding, so the support of market news to the market was limited.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price was stable at 6100 yuan / ton in the cycle; North Huajin’s 78 tons of goods were exported through competitive bidding on February 1, with the base price of 6010 yuan / ton, the average transaction price of reference yuan / ton, and the transaction volume of 78 tons; Shenhua Ningmei’s butadiene was exported normally, and the price was stable at 5650 yuan / ton as of February 4 Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene plant operates stably, and the main source of goods is self use and mutual supply.

External market: as of the close on February 5, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB South Korea closed at US $715-725 / T, CFR China closed at US $755-765 / T, both falling by US $20 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $555-565 / T, up US $10 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at EUR 595-605 / T, stable.

In the future, most businesses based on the supply side news after the festival, have strong expectations for the forward market, which will boost the spot market. Business community butadiene analysts expect that after the festival, the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise in a narrow range.

On February 7, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 0 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 7 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, R134a, aluminum fluoride, cryolite and chloroform.

On February 7, the price trend of fluorine chemical raw material market was temporarily stable, with the price of raw material fluorite at 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down, resulting in the shortage of fluorite supply in the plant. However, the downstream market has risen recently, and the fluorite price has been affected and gone up. As of July 7, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of supply in the market, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. As of July 7, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10577.78 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has gone up, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the hydrofluoric acid in the market is now available The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong is weak. The downstream market is in the off-season as a whole, and the demand for trichloromethane is poor. With the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the starting of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipment situation of enterprises is flat. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics transportation is limited to a certain extent, and the enterprises bid for shipment in order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a is temporarily stable, the raw material chloroform continues to be weak, the support of cost side is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. Due to the higher price of hydrofluoric acid, the affected price of refrigerants rises slightly. Refrigerant R134a prices rose slightly, the market is strong operation. Near the end of the year, the downstream construction continued to decline, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market rose slightly.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 1.08%, up 9.32% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the commodity index of 79.91 on February 5.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: orveganen’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 2800 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was low and consolidated this week. The quotation of small material this weekend is 890 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material this weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material this weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose this week. The price of PVC dropped from 7175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.05%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 6.42%. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is normal, overall, this week’s PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials is low and the cost of calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers have normal purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, but the output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle of February.