In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Shandong’s civil gas market rose significantly. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3700.00 yuan / ton on March 4 and 4026.67 yuan / ton on March 10, with an increase of 8.83% in the past seven days, up 8.34% compared with March 1.

As of March 10, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream quotation

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China: RMB 3860-3900 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China: RMB 3650-3900 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China 4398-4500 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: RMB 4000-4350 / T

It can be seen from the data of the business community that the LPG market has risen mainly in the past seven days, with a relatively obvious range. At present, the average price of Shandong’s civil gas market has risen to more than 4000 yuan / ton. On March 5, the international crude oil rose sharply, and the news was favorable to the market mentality. As the civil gas market continued to weaken in late February, and the price was relatively low, the manufacturers’ mentality was firm and most of them actively pushed up. Manufacturers generally smooth shipment, downstream market enthusiasm has improved, price behavior is the main factor. On March 8, the international crude oil continued to rise, which once again brought good news to the market. The civil gas market continued to rise, with the increase range of 50-100 yuan / ton in Shandong. However, as prices continue to rise, the lower reaches are in conflict with high prices, and Duowei holds to enter the market on demand, the atmosphere has become weaker than in the earlier stage. At present, the market supply in Shandong is stable, and only a few enterprises are shut down.

In the past seven days, the LPG futures market was mainly volatile, which brought Limited benefits to the spot market. On March 10, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2104 was 3913, the highest price was 3975, the lowest price was 3878, the closing price was 3934, the former settlement price was 3884, the settlement price was 3927, up 50, or 1.29%, the trading volume was 78641, the position was 23556, and the daily increase was – 2057. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Due to the rising market, the international crude oil support is more obvious. From March 8 to 9, the international crude oil continued to weaken, and the market lacked positive support. On March 10, it has stabilized in a large area, and only a few manufacturers made up for it. But there are also individual manufacturers, the current rate is not large. Generally speaking, the market supply is stable, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, the terminal is weak as a whole, the downstream market has been significantly weakened compared with the earlier stage, the manufacturers’ shipment is blocked, and the inventory is gradually accumulated. It is expected that Shandong’s civil gas market will consolidate horizontally in the short term and the trend will be weak.

From March 1 to March 5, 2021, the market price of antimony ingot in East China rose slightly, at 59750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 68750 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 15.06%

The antimony commodity index on March 8 was 97.10, up 1.39 points from yesterday, down 5.10% from 102.32 points (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.68% from 46.98 points, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

The price of antimony concentrate has been rising all the way this week. The recovery of domestic antimony mining is slow, and there is no clear news of resumption of work in the near future. Recently, domestic smelting mainly relies on imported ore sources. Affected by foreign public health events, the situation of imported antimony ore is not optimistic. There are only sporadic small batch imports in the past half a year, which is a drop in the bucket to alleviate the shortage of domestic ore supply. On March 8, the quotation of European Strategic small metal was 10250 US dollars / ton, while on March 4, the quotation of European Strategic small metal was only 9750 US dollars / ton, which was increased by 500 US dollars / ton for three consecutive days. The rise of international antimony ingot price further affected the domestic spot market price. The domestic antimony ingot market price was increased for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton.

As of March 8, the average price of 2 ﹥ low bismuth antimony ingot was 68500 yuan / ton, 1 ﹥ antimony ingot was 70000 yuan / ton, 0 ﹥ antimony ingot was 71000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 ﹥ high bismuth antimony ingot was 64000 yuan / ton, which was about 1000-1200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. The market price of antimony trioxide continued to rise along with the trend of antimony ingot. As of August 8, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 64000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 65000 yuan / ton, which was about 1000-1200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 09th week of 2021 (3.1-3.5), there were 13 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month, among which 5 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were antimony (15.06%), praseodymium oxide (10.06%) and dysprosium metal (5.88%). There were 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were nickel (- 12.39%), cobalt (- 8.66%) and silver (- 6.31%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.53%. Most of the nonferrous metal market rose

At present, it is difficult to ease the tight supply at the ore end. It is difficult to increase the quantity of domestic and overseas imports in the short term. The smelter can only continuously increase the ex factory price to achieve the purpose of reluctant to sell. Therefore, the price of antimony ingot still has room to rise in the future.

The domestic butadiene market rebounded sharply in February, especially after the lunar new year. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price was 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 8235 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 35.98% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 32.23%.

In February, domestic bulk commodities went through a cycle of sharp rise. With the favorable environment, the international crude oil price continued to rise, saving the butadiene market which started at a low level in January 2021. The butadiene market has changed from the downturn in January to a strong upward trend. Supported by the rising atmosphere in the downstream rubber industry, the butadiene market is expected to be bullish in the short term, the supplier’s price is constantly rising, and the holding companies are obviously waiting for the market to rise, jointly driving the market higher.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price has increased by 2400 yuan / ton month on month, with 8500 yuan / ton since February 26; Yantai Wanhua 50000 ton / year butadiene extraction unit is in normal operation, and the goods are exported normally, with the price at 8750 yuan / ton as of February 25; Shenhua Ningmei 64000 ton / year butadiene unit is in stable operation, and some goods are exported, with the price at 8510 yuan / ton as of February 26 Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid and early April; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 T / a butadiene plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in early June; Zhenhai Petrochemical’s 165000 T / a butadiene plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance around April 5, lasting about 15 days.

External price: as of March 5, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at 1035-1045 US dollars / ton, up 80 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 1075-1085 US dollars / ton, up 80 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 895-905 US dollars / ton, up 120 US dollars / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 725-735 euro / ton, up 60 euro / ton.

At present, the high support of production enterprises is expected to be strong in the short term. In March, with the restart of Yangzi Petrochemical’s butadiene plant and the delay of Zhenhai Refinery’s unit maintenance, the reduction of market supply may not be as expected. Business community butadiene analysts expect short-term domestic butadiene market consolidation.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10611.11 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.84%.

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stable. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly stable. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, and the market price trend is temporarily stable.

The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal. Although some hydrofluoric acid units are overhauled in the field, the hydrofluoric acid market spot is acceptable. Up to now, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the manufacturers still have bullish sentiment in the near future, but the pressure of price rise in the hydrofluoric acid Market in the later stage is not small.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose slightly. By the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2766.67 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.20% this week. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply was slightly tight. However, with the warming of the temperature, the parking devices of some manufacturers in the north are about to start, and the on-site supply may increase, so the domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly this week. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains stable due to the positive support.

The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is slightly higher, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery of goods is not smooth, the actual transaction focus is slightly increased, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 14500-16500 yuan / ton. Low load operation of domestic R134a manufacturers, favorable support, R134a price trend temporarily stable. However, the current demand is not good, the downstream enterprises do not start high, and the traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, and the price is high, but the transaction atmosphere is general. The downstream Refrigerant Market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable.

From the industrial chain diagram, the fluorine chemical industry market has risen in the past three months, the price of raw material fluorite has maintained a high level, and the price of downstream refrigerants has increased slightly. In addition, the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site is normal. Supported by many favorable factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of the business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain high Level.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 28, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 15200 yuan / ton, which was increased by 6700 yuan / ton or 78.13% compared with the price on February 1 (8533 yuan / ton).

The market of n-butanol rose steadily in early February

Since the beginning of February, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province has been running steadily, moderately and strongly. Many n-butanol downstream plants started normal operation during the Spring Festival. The market demand has increased significantly. The downstream plants are actively preparing goods. The n-butanol plants are shipping smoothly, the spot inventory is low, and the market price has been rising steadily. In early February, the market price of n-butanol has increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton The average ex factory price of n-butanol is 9300 yuan / ton, up nearly 9% in half a month. Some n-butanol factories began to receive limited orders in the first ten days of February, and more orders were received in the later March of the year. Until the eve of the holiday, the cumulative inventory of n-butanol downstream butyl raw materials was still not high, which also foreshadowed the continued rise of n-butanol market after the holiday.

N-butanol market rose sharply in late February

During the holidays, the n-butanol market was stable and firm, with low inventory and scarce spot. On the 18th, the n-butanol market in Shandong rose sharply, with a single day rise rate of nearly 10%. The ex factory price of n-butanol in many factories exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. The attitude of the industry was positive, and the reluctance to sell was gradually strong. The downstream purchasing sentiment was optimistic. The market of n-butanol continued to rise after the festival, and the spot supply was insufficient, In the first week and three days after the festival, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong Province has risen to around 11500-12500 yuan / ton, with the biggest increase of nearly 3000 yuan / ton in three days.

In the second week after the festival, on the 22nd, the n-butanol market continued to rise sharply. The ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua chemical rose to 14700 yuan / ton, 3000 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous working day. On the 23rd, the opening price of Luxi Chemical rose to 14500 yuan / ton after several days of closure. The sharp rise of the two major chemical enterprises once again pushed up the ex factory price of n-butanol. On the 23rd, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was up The price of n-butanol rose to 14633 yuan / ton, the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth, and the market continued to run strongly. Near the end of the month, the market of n-butanol continued to rise, with an increase of 500-700 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the reference ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 14800-15500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price before the festival, the price after the festival increased by more than 63%, and compared with the price at the beginning of February, the overall price rose It was nearly 80%.

On the upstream side, after the Spring Festival, February 18 is the first day when the Spring Festival holiday ends. The price of propylene starts a continuous upward trend, with a daily upward trend of about 200 yuan / ton. On February 22, the price of propylene is increased by 400 yuan / ton. By February 23, the price of propylene has increased by about 1400 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has reached 8500 ~ 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price has risen to about 8500 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the price of propylene after the festival has increased by 18.5% 0%。 Now the factory stock is less, the shipment situation is more popular. Due to extreme weather in the United States, the units are frequently overhauled, and the restart time is uncertain, resulting in a sharp decrease in propylene production and soaring prices; due to the earthquake in Japan, the units are also affected, resulting in a decrease in propylene production capacity.

After n-butanol rises to a high level, it may cause a deadlock in downstream demand, and the market may fall in the short term

After the domestic n-butanol market rises to a high level, the mentality of the downstream may change. After the increase of downstream demand in the early stage, it may only maintain the just need to purchase and digest raw materials for a short time. Therefore, the n-butanol data analysts of the business community believe that the n-butanol market, which has been running at a high level for several days in the near future, may encounter a demand deadlock, and the market may fall slightly after shock.

During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market is in stages. The trend before and after the festival is different. Before the festival, the market is mainly weak, and after the festival, the market is on a short roller coaster. According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3676.67 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month, and 3773.33 yuan / ton on February 28 at the end of the month. The overall price rose by 2.63% in February, and the maximum amplitude was 10.80%, up 8.12% from January 1.

As of February 26, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream quotation

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China: 3760-3850 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China: RMB 3650-3770 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 3950-4180 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: 3900-4100 yuan / ton

It can be seen from the data of business community that LPG fluctuated frequently in February, with a relatively large range. The whole can be divided into two stages before and after the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the overall trend of LPG civil market was weak, and all regions in China were in a downward trend, but there were some differences in the decline range. Shandong civil gas market prices fell significantly before the festival. On the 3rd, it began to decline continuously. Before the festival, due to the decline in transportation, the downstream replenishment has ended one after another, and they have withdrawn from the market to wait and see. The market demand is limited, and the transaction atmosphere is significantly lower than that in the early stage. However, the manufacturers’ demand for stock arrangement before the festival has not been fully completed, and the prices are continuously lowered for shipment. Most manufacturers adjust according to their own situation, and the overall weakness is the main.

After the festival, the LPG civil market took a short “roller coaster”, the price rose first and then fell, and warmed up again at the end of the month. After the holiday, the market as a whole rose to varying degrees, and the market rebounded. Shandong market actively pushed up from February 18 to 19, with an overall increase of 300-500 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, with an increase of more than 10% in just two days. The main reason for the rise was that the rise of international crude oil was good for the civil gas market, and the demand for downstream storage and replenishment after the festival, which made the market atmosphere more positive, and the manufacturers’ mentality was strong, and the market was not stable Most of the regions actively pushed up.

However, the price rise was too short-lived and began to decline significantly on February 19. Due to the insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has obviously weakened, the manufacturers’ shipment has been blocked, the inventory has gradually increased, and they have been forced to lower the ex factory price and give way to the profit for shipment. Shandong’s civil gas market fell significantly. Until the end of the month, driven by the rise of international crude oil, the market followed up again, and CP issued an expectation for the rise of reserves in March at the end of the month, which also brought certain benefits to the market. The price of civil gas stopped falling and rose slightly.

In February, the LPG futures market fell first and then rose, which brought phased support to the spot market. On February 26, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2104 was 4071, the highest price was 4092, the lowest price was 3964, the closing price was 4042, the former settlement price was 4068, the settlement price was 4016, down 26, or 0.64%. The trading volume was 146496, the position was 31220, and the daily increase was – 5300. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

On the whole, the LPG civil market in February was greatly affected by the Spring Festival, with frequent overall fluctuations and large differences in the trend before and after the festival. At present, CP rose in March, and propane butane rose slightly, but due to the limited increase, the support to the market was limited. At present, the market supply is relatively sufficient, but the demand is weak. In March, with the warming weather, the demand is still expected to weaken. However, in February, driven by the rise of international crude oil, the whole energy sector rose more than fell less. It is expected that Shandong civil gas market will still rise in March, but the rise will be limited to a certain extent.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene continued to push up this week, and the price returned to the level at the end of October 2018. On February 21, the price of pure benzene was 6100-6350 yuan / ton (the average price was 6150 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (February 28), the price of pure benzene was 6500-6850 yuan / ton (the average price was 6690 yuan / ton), which was 540 yuan / ton or 8.78% higher than that of last week, and 24.34% higher than that of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the Spring Festival, affected by the severe cold weather in the United States, crude oil production capacity dropped sharply and cost support strengthened; some styrene plants in the United States stopped unscheduled and styrene in Europe and the United States rose sharply, driving the strength of pure benzene in the outer market. Domestic pure benzene was boosted, adding up the low inventory of enterprises, and the price continued to rise. This week continued good, prices continue to rise. In the middle of the week, the spot market of pure benzene fell slightly due to the drag of styrene futures price and the increase of market profit-making mentality. Near the weekend, pure benzene rose sharply in the US gold market, followed by Asia’s pure benzene, and Sinopec’s price rose, boosting the market. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 600 yuan / ton to 6750 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the demand for pure benzene in Europe and the United States is relatively strong, and the external pure benzene continues to rise, supporting the domestic market at a high level. On Friday (February 26), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 897.67 US dollars / ton, up 96 US dollars / ton or 11.98% compared with February 19; the reference price of import in East China was 915 US dollars / ton, up 99.5 US dollars / ton or 12.2% compared with February 19.

In terms of crude oil, refineries with declining operating rate are gradually recovering due to severe cold weather, but some of the production capacity is still leaving the market, and crude oil fluctuates and rises. The market is waiting for the upcoming OPEC + meeting this week. On February 19, Brent rose $2.48/barrel, or 3.91%; WTI rose $0.7/barrel, or 1.16%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rose in shock. At present, the operating rate of styrene in China is 87.86%, which is at a medium to high level. However, the inventory pressure of production enterprises is not great. Last week, the main port in East China had an inventory of 168000 tons. On February 26, the price of sample enterprises was 9683.33 yuan / ton, up 850 yuan / ton or 10.88% from last week, and 44.53% from the same period last year.

Aniline: at the beginning of the week, the profit of last week continued to be good, and the price of aniline continued to rise, returning to the era of ten thousand yuan! With the release of good news, aniline Market Returns to a stable trend. Prices rose again over the weekend, boosted by costs. The main aniline plants in Shandong Province are expected to be overhauled and the supply is expected to decrease in the coming March; the downstream price is high, the profit is good and the demand for aniline is good. The market’s attitude towards aniline is not decreasing. On February 28, the price of aniline was 10700-10800 yuan / ton in Shandong and 10700 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 11.99% from last week and 63.5% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is worried that rising oil prices may prompt more crude oil supply to return to the market. Continue to pay attention to the upcoming OPEC + meeting and discuss the new production reduction agreement.

Downstream: at present, the overall trend of pure benzene downstream is relatively strong, inquiry and preparation are active, and pure benzene is well supported. Although the social inventory of downstream styrene is rising, the overall inventory is lower than the market expectation. In the near future, with the follow-up of market speculation and demand for just needed goods, it is expected that the port will start to go to the warehouse. At present, the fundamental support of styrene is still relatively strong, but it rises too fast, so we need to pay attention to the downstream acceptance. CNOOC’s new styrene plant will be commissioned in March, and SINOCHEM Hongrun’s new styrene plant will be commissioned in March.

Internationally, severe cold weather in the United States has brought short-term growth. With the resumption of supply of foreign plants, the trend of pure benzene is expected to ease, but the demand in Europe and the United States is still strong. Domestic, pure benzene port inventory continued to decline, Shandong refining inventory is not high, short-term supply is expected to be tight. In terms of downstream, the profit margin of downstream is wide, and there is a new downstream entrance in March in China, so there is a strong demand for pure benzene. Overall, the price of pure benzene still has room to rise. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, domestic and foreign trends of pure benzene plants, crude oil, external market and styrene trend, etc.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc price rose sharply in the short term after the festival. On the 18th and 19th, the zinc price rose by 1500 yuan / ton. After the surge, the zinc price returned to stable. The zinc price fluctuated and adjusted from the 20th to the 27th. On February 27th, the average price of zinc was 21746.67 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the zinc price of 21750.00 yuan / ton on February 20th. The zinc market fluctuated and stabilized.

LME zinc price trend chart in February

According to the trend chart of LME zinc price in London, it can be seen that the overall LME zinc price rose sharply in February, which led to a sharp rise in domestic zinc price. However, since the end of February, the LME zinc price has fallen in shock, the rise of domestic zinc market has lost support, and the domestic zinc market has recovered from shock.

Trend of zinc concentrate processing fee

Name: Quotation (yuan / ton) median value (yuan / ton) rise and fall time

ZN50 imported zinc concentrate TC 290-330 310 0 2020 / 1 / 2

Pb50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 6100-6500 6300-2020 / 1 / 2

ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC ﹥ 70-90 ﹥ 80 ﹥ 0 ﹥ 2020 / 12 / 1

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 4300-4500 4400 – 400 2020 / 12 / 1

ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC ﹥ 70-90 ﹥ 80 ﹥ 0 ﹥ 2021 / 1 / 4

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 3900-4200-4050-350 2021 / 1 / 4

ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC ﹥ 60-80 ﹥ 70 – 10 ﹥ 2021 / 2 / 1

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 3900-4200 4050 2021 / 2 / 1

It can be seen from the statistical table of zinc concentrate processing fee that the zinc concentrate processing fee will drop from 6300 yuan / ton to 4400 yuan / ton in 2020, and the zinc concentrate processing fee will drop sharply. From January to February in 2021, the zinc concentrate processing fee will continue to drop, but the downward trend will slow down, and the zinc concentrate processing fee will stabilize obviously. In February 2021, the mines will stop production and the supply of zinc ore will decrease. The domestic refined zinc output will decline seasonally in February. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the mines will gradually resume mining in March, and the smelters will gradually resume work in the same period. After mining, the zinc concentrate products will still need a certain production and transportation cycle to enter the market. Therefore, the domestic zinc concentrate supply will continue to be tight until the middle of March. Domestic refined zinc production is expected to recover in March. The continuous recovery of zinc concentrate processing fees is not conducive to the growth of zinc concentrate production. The insufficient zinc concentrate production is a drag on the zinc ingot production. The reduction of zinc ingot production is obviously beneficial to the rise of zinc price, and the future zinc price has a greater driving force.

Zinc market demand forecast

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the improvement of terminal construction, the market is relatively optimistic about the recovery of consumption after the festival, and the demand of zinc market is expected to be expected. It is expected that zinc ingot inventory will enter the stage of rapid destocking in March. Demand is expected to rise, zinc City inventory decline, short supply market aggravation, future zinc ingot rising momentum.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: the continuous rise of zinc price in LME market in February has a greater supporting effect on the rise of domestic zinc market, but with the shock adjustment of zinc price in LME market, the domestic zinc price weakens with the support; the continuous decline of zinc concentrate processing fee drags down the growth of zinc ingot output, zinc ingot supply decreases, and the support for zinc price increases; with the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the improvement of terminal start-up, the domestic zinc price decreases The market is relatively optimistic about the recovery of zinc consumption after the festival, and the demand of zinc market is expected. It is expected that zinc ingot inventory will enter the stage of rapid destocking in March, and the supply of zinc market is slightly insufficient. Generally speaking, the demand of zinc market is expected to grow, but the improvement of supply is limited, the market of short supply is intensified, the zinc market is basically good, and the rising power of zinc price is increased. It is expected that the zinc price will rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, on February 25, the domestic price of carbon black was 7500 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation. The price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and this month’s carbon black market was mainly volatile.

2、 Market analysis

Before the Spring Festival, most rubber products enterprises have limited stock before the festival. After the festival, new orders will be purchased, and the demand for carbon black will increase. In the short term, as the orders of carbon black enterprises are still sufficient and the market profit is high, the operating rate of carbon black market will continue to maintain a high level. After the majority of carbon black enterprises returned to the market during the Spring Festival holiday, 50% of the carbon black enterprises started higher than before the festival, and 46% of the carbon black enterprises basically recovered to the pre Festival level, and the carbon black market started at a high level.

As of February 18, the operating rate of carbon black sample enterprises was 74.76%, 6.81% higher than that of February 10. The recent rise of coal tar price has formed a certain support for the cost of carbon black, which is good for the price mentality of the industry, but the impact is limited; The downstream tire and rubber products enterprises have resumed work one after another, the rubber tube industry has high profits and tight goods, and the domestic demand for tires is improving. However, the tire manufacturers in Shandong’s main production areas are not quick to digest the carbon black before the festival, resulting in the phenomenon of carbon black truck unloading and detention. Although the recovery of tire enterprises is good,

Downstream auto sales continue to recover

Carbon black is an indispensable raw material for rubber industry. Because carbon black can improve the wear resistance of tire tread, greatly increase the mileage of tire, and also improve the tensile strength and tear strength of rubber compound, carbon black is widely used in manufacturing various types of tires and other rubber products. In the downstream of carbon black, the demand for tires accounted for 70%, other rubber products accounted for 25%, and non rubber products accounted for 5%.

Affected by the epidemic situation, in the first half of 2020, the sales volume of automobiles decreased significantly, the supply and demand of carbon black industry continued to deteriorate, and the domestic carbon black operating rate dropped to 45% in June. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, the operating rate of the carbon black industry has gradually increased, and has now returned to the level above that of the same period in 2019, driven by the improvement of downstream automobile demand and overseas single transfer.

Carbon black enters profit recovery period

In addition, from the profit changes of carbon black enterprises, the current market price of carbon black is higher than that of the same period last year, while the price of coal tar, an important raw material in the upstream, is lower than that of last year. Therefore, with the increase of the price difference between carbon black and coal tar, carbon black enterprises have entered the profit recovery period, and the performance can be released!

3、 Future forecast

In addition to the continuous recovery of the domestic automobile industry, the demand for tires is guaranteed, which strongly supports the demand for carbon black. Under the influence of the epidemic, the export orders of domestic tire factories are also large, and the demand for upstream carbon black continues to increase. At present, the supply and demand pattern of carbon black industry is gradually tightening. It is expected that the price of carbon black will be further raised!

Spot market: after the Spring Festival, a number of pure polyester yarn enterprises raise prices, “up” sound. According to the test data of the business club, as of February 25, the quotation of Weifang runfengda textile pure polyester yarn has risen sharply, with the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn of 15000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival; the quotation of Weifang Guanjie textile pure polyester yarn has risen sharply, with the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn of 15000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival; the quotation of Weifang Honghua textile pure polyester yarn has risen slightly, with the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn rising slightly The price is 14800 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival; Nantong Suzhong textile continuously increased its quotation in February, and the quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn reached 15000 yuan / ton by the 25th, which is 1200 yuan / ton higher than that in January; Gaoyi Delida textile also increased its quotation continuously, which is 1100 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: futures situation. After the Spring Festival, the staple fiber futures market rose well. As of February 25, the staple fiber main contract hit the trading limit, up 6% to 8526 yuan / ton, reaching a new high since listing. Spot prices, 1.4d polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and other places generally increased to 7300-7400 yuan / ton. At present, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber are 215% and 157% respectively, and the product inventory has dropped to – 5 days, which is significantly lower than that of the same period in previous years. Polyester short-term benefits exceeded 1000 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: the terminal market returns to work orderly after the festival, and the return time is earlier than the scheduled time. As of February 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to more than 48%, and the weaving industry is expected to return to normal operation in early March. At present, the raw materials are rising rapidly, which aggravates the market risk. Therefore, the downstream companies are cautious about the market and make more inquiries, but they are still hesitant to place orders, and the orders have not improved significantly. However, the textile peak season in March and April is coming. Although the textile peak season in the first half of last year basically disappeared due to the epidemic, the peak season in March and April in any previous year will promote the textile market to a certain extent. This year, the domestic epidemic has been under control, and the overseas epidemic has gradually ushered in an inflection point. The worst time of the textile market has passed, and the peak season of the first half of this year will surely come.

Suggestions: before the Spring Festival, the yarn inventory is relatively low, and the yarn price can be adjusted rapidly with the fluctuation of polyester staple fiber, which can minimize the risk; the number of unfinished and undelivered orders before the Spring Festival is not large, and the impact of yarn price adjustment on medium and long line orders is limited; the capital flow of yarn mills is relatively abundant, and the operation pressure from March to April is not prominent, so it can receive orders for downstream weaving enterprises, garment factories and terminals Set aside enough time for acceptance and digestion to pave the way for the smooth rise of yarn price. Future recommendations continue to focus on the impact of raw material prices and downstream demand.