Price reduction of ethylene glycol in May

The price of ethylene glycol will drop significantly in May 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the average price of the domestic oil to ethylene glycol market was 4770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.47% from the average price of 5155 yuan/ton on May 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 29th, the basis price of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) fluctuates with the market. Today’s spot contract basis price is within the range of+85 to+93. As of the close, the basis price of next week’s contract will be+102 to+107, and the basis price of June’s contract will be+123 to+125.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4030-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 29th, the negotiated landed price of Chinese ship cargo was around 578 US dollars/ton, and the negotiated landed price of Southeast Asian ship cargo was around 700 US dollars/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in May 2026:
On May 28, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 646000 tons, a decrease of 126400 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on April 30, which was 772400 tons; Compared to March 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 953000 tons, a decrease of 307000 tons in inventory.
Analysis of the reasons for the price reduction of ethylene glycol in May 2026:
The sharp drop in ethylene glycol prices in May 2026 is mainly due to the disappearance of geopolitical premiums, a sharp drop in crude oil prices, high domestic coal to gas production, off-season demand for polyester, and concentrated withdrawal of funds, forming a negative feedback of “cost collapse supply increase demand weakness”.
1、 Cost end: Middle East easing&crude oil plummeting&geographical premium “squeezing foam”
The main reason for the rise in ethylene glycol in April was the US Iran conflict, the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, market hoarding, and the push up of the “geopolitical risk premium”. In May, things took a turning point as negotiations between the US and Iran resumed, expectations for reconciliation increased, expectations for cross-strait navigation resumed, and conflict premiums quickly dissipated. On the cost side, oil prices plummeted, with Brent falling from $115/barrel (early May) to $99-105/barrel (mid to late May), and the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil collapsing.
2、 Supply side: High domestic production and revised import expectations, pressure exceeds expectations
The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China in May was between 58% and 68%; Among them, 68% – 82% (high level) is made of coal and 54% is made of oil. On the import side, the Middle East equipment is undergoing maintenance, and the expected arrival in May and June has declined. However, there is still a surplus of short-term arrivals, and the “import reduction” has been priced in advance, without forming an immediate gap.
3、 Demand side: Polyester off-season+terminal weakness, negative feedback, continuous fermentation
The average production of polyester in May was 75% -77%, a year-on-year decrease of 3-5 points, and the reduction in production of long and short fibers increased. From the perspective of terminal demand, textile and clothing exports are weak, while domestic demand is weak; The sluggish real estate market has dragged down the demand for building materials/home appliances, indirectly suppressing the demand for polyester. The raw material inventory of the polyester factory is only 7.5 days (the lowest in the past three years), maintaining only basic needs and weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Terminal weakness → high polyester inventory → negative load reduction → reduced ethylene glycol procurement → price drop → further suppression of inventory replenishment, negative feedback continues to ferment.

4、 Funds and Emotions: Strong US Dollar, Expectations Turn Short, Funds Concentrate and Leave the Market
The settlement news in May triggered a concentrated stop loss, causing futures to continuously increase volume and plummet, driving spot prices to follow suit.
June 2026 ethylene glycol price forecast:
The operating trend of ethylene glycol prices in June is likely to be “weak at first and then stable, with a narrow range of fluctuations”, and it is difficult to see a significant drop or rise. The central spot price at the port is about 4400 yuan/ton.