1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on March 15, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8725 yuan / ton, up 1.31% over the previous trading day, 18.71% over the same period of last year, and 39.88% over the same period of last year.
2、 Market analysis
Last week, the PVC market was relatively volatile, with mixed ups and downs. The whole week showed a slight upward trend. Due to the rising futures prices and the strong support of the cost side, the rising sentiment of PVC market continued to this week. On Monday, there was a large-scale rise. The price increase in most regions was about 200-350 yuan / ton, and the price exceeded 9000 yuan / ton. Some enterprises also stayed on the sidelines. Recently, the futures price has been in a strong shock, which has driven the focus of the spot market upward. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream has increased the heat of inquiry. However, it still takes time for high price PVC to transmit to the downstream. At present, the downstream start-up load is not high, and only just need to purchase, but the social inventory has decreased year-on-year, which shows that the demand support is still in progress, and the market transaction has gradually improved; the PVC export orders are good, and the external market is strong, which is good for PVC upward; under the policy of double control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, the raw calcium carbide has increased by more than 30%, and there is no sign of callback, so the cost support is strong; moreover, the cost support is strong Some PVC enterprises have maintenance plans, and the market supply side is favorable, which supports the upward movement of PVC. On the whole, PVC is positive, the rising wind is not easy to change, and the market is strong.
In terms of spot price, the price has increased in a large area, and the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8500-9100 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is RMB 9000-9150 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in North China is RMB 8900-9000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in South China is RMB 9000-9050 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Central China is RMB 8850-9000 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC calcium carbide in Southwest China is RMB 8900-9000 yuan / ton.
In terms of futures, futures fluctuated at a high level, reaching a new high in nearly 10 years, driving the spot trend. On the 15th, v2105 contract opened at 8840, with the highest price of 9190 and the lowest price of 8770, closing at 9150, up 390, or 4.45%. The turnover was 930000, an increase of 380000. The position was 402000, an increase of 65538.
15 March 2005
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 9000-9200 yuan / ton
Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8930-9050 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 8950-8980 yuan / ton
Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8960-9150 yuan / ton
Shandong PVC calcium carbide method 8800-8950 yuan / ton
For upstream crude oil, on March 12, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $65.61/barrel, down US $0.41. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, the settlement price of the main contract was 69.22 US dollars / barrel, down 0.41 US dollars. Oil prices fell slightly due to profit taking by bulls, but the current price is still relatively strong and volatile. On the one hand, the expectation of economic recovery is enhanced, and on the other hand, OPEC + production reduction policy supports oil prices.
On March 15, the reference price of ethylene was 1194.50, up 8.12% from March 1 (1104.75). Next, the world’s gasoline prices will rise sharply, so foreign analysts are optimistic about the current situation of ethylene prices.
On March 15, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4716.67, up 32.24% compared with that on March 1 (3566.67). On March 15, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, up 383.34 yuan / ton, or 8.85% compared with that on March 12. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, with higher prices compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide, and the market demand exceeds supply. The main reason for the rise of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is the double control of energy consumption, power limitation and furnace shutdown.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the PVC futures are relatively strong and volatile, and have been surging up for many times, driving the focus of the spot market to move up. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream has increased the heat of inquiry, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. In addition, the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen sharply, the external offer is strong, and the maintenance is good. Under the superposition of many factors, the PVC market has been pushed up again, and the price may continue to rise in the short term.