According to the data monitoring of business agency, the overall price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate remained stable this week. On April 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 481400 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with that at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 481400 yuan / ton on April 3). On April 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 505600 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 505600 yuan / ton on April 3). As of April 7, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 445000 ~ 487000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 490000 ~ 518000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has returned to stability after the Qingming Festival. At present, the operating rate of mineral enterprises has gradually recovered, the temperature in Qinghai has picked up, the output has gradually increased, and the market supply has increased. In the demand side market, the orders of the downstream ternary end were affected to some extent by the fluctuation of nickel price, and the orders of cathode materials also weakened slightly in April. In terms of iron and lithium, due to the suspension of some terminal models and the high inventory of battery factories, orders have been affected, and the procurement demand of the material end in the overall market is relatively light.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market remained stable, and the overall supply was low because the manufacturer’s maintenance had not been fully restored. Impacted by the nickel incident, the orders of some ternary material manufacturers in April were affected, and the demand for preparation for mining decreased slightly. There were few transactions in the market and a few shipments from some traders, which eased the tension slightly.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream operates stably, the supply of manufacturers is tight, the focus of negotiation is general, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, the focus of the upstream market is relatively high, the rise slows down, the cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate market still exists, and the overall market is under pressure.

The lithium carbonate analyst of business society believes that at present, the downstream has low acceptance of high price lithium carbonate and less market trading volume, but the quotation enterprises still maintain strong prices and strong upstream and downstream game sentiment. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may be weak and subject to shock adjustment.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (April 6): 11766.67 yuan / ton

The melamine market fell on April 6, down 1.40% compared with the previous trading day and 1.94% compared with the price on March 6. At present, the upstream urea price is weak, the cost support is weakened, the operating rate of melamine is high, and the supply is gradually increasing. However, the downstream demand is sluggish, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, and the market trading atmosphere is weak.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the overall price of caustic soda rose in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of Shandong market was 1052.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of Shandong market was about 1098 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.32%, and the price increased by 124.08% compared with the same period last year. On March 30, the caustic soda commodity index was 157.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.71% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 141.76% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of the month, the price of caustic soda decreased, mainly because the inventory pressure of caustic soda manufacturers was large, the demand of downstream alumina enterprises was weaker than before, the demand of downstream alumina was general, and the price of caustic soda was dominated by weak operation. In the middle of March, the price of caustic soda was relatively stable, the recent demand of downstream was mostly purchased on demand, and the mood of receiving goods was general. The price rise in late March was mainly due to the good operation of caustic soda price. Recently, some caustic soda enterprises have little inventory pressure and the downstream demand is OK.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the 12th week of 2022 (3.21-3.25), there were 1 kind of goods rising, 3 kinds of goods falling and 1 kind of goods falling to zero in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (4.24%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 3.41%), calcium carbide (- 1.47%) and PVC (- 0.34%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.2%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the overall price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the manufacturers flexibly adjust the quotation according to themselves. Due to the impact of public events, the manufacturer’s inventory is tight, and the recent demand of the downstream is still acceptable. It is comprehensively expected that the follow-up or good operation of caustic soda will be mainly based on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8990.00 yuan / ton on March 16 and 9280.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a half month increase of 3.23%, an increase of 5.10% compared with March 1.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11633.33 yuan / ton on March 16 and 11633.33 yuan / ton on March 31, with a half month increase of 1.00%, an increase of 1.15% compared with March 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9616.67 yuan / ton on March 16 and 9850.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a half month increase of 2.43%, an increase of 7.26% compared with March 1.

In late March, the polyethylene spot market as a whole showed a trend from weak to strong, and the increase of the three varieties was greater than the decrease. Among them, LLDPE and HDPE markets rose significantly at the end of the month. In the latter half of the year, the polyethylene market was mainly subject to narrow amplitude shocks in the early stage. Affected by the epidemic situation in many regions in China, the logistics and transportation were blocked, and the downstream demand was restrained to a certain extent. However, the price support mentality of petrochemical enterprises has obviously brought some support to the market, and the market fluctuates in a narrow range. Until the end of the month, the international crude oil price returned to the upward trend, which brought some support to the cost side. In addition, the market is about to usher in centralized maintenance, and the supply side is expected to reduce. At the beginning of the month, the new price was significantly higher.

In late March, Liansu futures market fluctuated higher, which brought some support to the spot market. On March 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2205 was 9222, the highest price was 9369, the lowest price was 9176, the closing price was 9291, the former settlement price was 9244, the settlement price was 9256, up 471, or 0.51%, the trading volume was 473770, the position was 268114, and the daily position was increased by – 16435. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the return of international crude oil to the rising trend is good for the market mentality, and the market is about to usher in the peak maintenance season. The supply is reduced, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises is not high, the mentality is relatively strong, and the market demand is good in terms of demand. It is expected that the price of PE spot market may still rise in the short term.

Trend of magnesium in March

As the price of magnesium ingot was rapidly raised at the end of February, with the rise of magnesium price, the acceptance capacity of downstream users is obviously small, which is bound to affect the downstream demand, and the social inventory is relatively sufficient, resulting in a sharp drop in magnesium price of nearly 3000 yuan / ton in early March; Subsequently, the price of magnesium ingots was uneasy all the way, falling and rising every week. It fell below the 40000 yuan mark in mid March, but stopped falling and stabilized after a short decline; In the fourth week of March, the magnesium market operated around the node of 40000 yuan. Because the third ecological and environmental protection supervision group of the central government wanted to feed back the supervision situation of Shaanxi Province, it slightly drove the market activity. The magnesium plant increased the market exploration slightly, but it was affected by the downstream demand, and the quotation showed a downward trend after the increase.

As of March 31, the market tax included spot exchange was 40666.67 yuan / ton, down about 4500 yuan / ton or 9.96% from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

The export volume is less than expected

According to customs statistics, the export volume of China’s magnesium ingots from January to February was about 41633.2 tons, an increase of 14.8% over the same period. Overseas traders learned that overseas demand in March was lower than expected. This is mainly due to the uncertain impact of the early winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and environmental protection policies on the production of magnesium ingots in the main production areas, resulting in a significant increase in the export volume of magnesium ingots at the end of 2021. At present, the overseas downstream is still dominated by digesting the early inventory.

In addition, the domestic epidemic made a comeback in March, which had a great impact on the production, processing and transportation of domestic magnesium plants. Another important reason is that most downstream customers hold the psychology of “buying up but not buying down”. In March, the price of magnesium continued to fall. Most customers inside and outside Shanghai were on the sidelines, and the replenishment operation was cautious.

Stable start-up of magnesium plant

The overall production situation of the supply side is relatively stable, and there are still slight signs of inventory accumulation in the factory. According to the business society, the output of magnesium ingots in China in February 2022 and February 2022 was 83211 tons, an increase of 0.99% month on month and 25.73% year-on-year. The pattern of oversupply is prominent. Even if the magnesium plant is willing to stabilize the price, the transaction atmosphere is light.

Rising raw material costs

In March, the coke market rose for three rounds, with a total increase of 600 yuan / ton. Coking enterprises also showed limited production due to the increase of inventory. Transportation problems made it more difficult for magnesium plants to purchase coke, which indirectly raised the medium and long-term production cost of magnesium ingots. The raw material ferrosilicon has a bullish trend. On the 28th, the quotation of ferrosilicon in the main production area of Ningxia was 9400-9600 yuan / ton. The blue carbon market was strong, and some enterprises raised the ex factory price of blue carbon by 50-100 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

At present, the market price is in a dilemma, and the buyer and the seller are in a seesaw situation. Although the capital pressure of the factory is small and the price protection intention is obvious, under the influence of the rapid decline of magnesium price, downstream customers do not consider entering the market temporarily. Only some low-cost resources are traded in the market, the market transaction is relatively tired, and the upward trend of magnesium price lacks power support. Business analysts believe that in the short term, the price of magnesium ingots will continue to stabilize the market, and the overall price will still be around 40000 yuan in April.

In March, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell in March. As of March 30, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10875 yuan / ton, down 5.02% from 11450 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month; The aluminum fluoride market fell weakly in March.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and fell

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite stabilized after a sharp decline in March, with a decrease of 9.65% in March; In March, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell first and then rose, and the overall hydrofluoric acid Market stopped falling and recovered. In early March, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased; The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid stopped falling and rebounded in the latter ten days, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increased.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and warmed up

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the price of electrolytic aluminum rebounded slightly in March. In March, the aluminum price fluctuated and adjusted, with a small increase of 0.80%. The operation of electrolytic aluminum manufacturers is stable, the demand for aluminum fluoride is stable, the downstream demand rebounds and adjusts, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride still exists.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that in the first ten days of March, the price of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell; The start-up of aluminum fluoride manufacturers rose, and the supply of aluminum fluoride was sufficient; The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid hit the bottom and rebounded in the latter half of the year, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increased. In the future, the cost increases, the supply and demand are both high, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the upward momentum is increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rebound and rise in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of March 29, the average price of melamine enterprises was 12333.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price on Friday (March 25), decreased by 1.33% compared with the price on March 1, and increased by 26.71% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The recent melamine market is mainly stable. Recently, the price of urea is weak, the cost support is weakened, the operating rate of melamine is high, the demand performance is insufficient, and the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth. In addition, there is a certain impact on logistics and transportation, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable and wait-and-see.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly on March 28, down 27 yuan / ton, or 0.90%, compared with the price on March 25, and increased by 39.83% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is limited, the demand performance is poor, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the melamine market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of March 28, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.9% from the beginning of the month and up 7.74% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of March 28, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25166.67 yuan / ton, down 8.48% from the beginning of the month and up 23.16% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the refrigerant R22 market was generally stable with little fluctuation, falling by 1.9% during the month. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable this month, and the market of chloroform rose, which strengthened the support for refrigerant R22. In addition, public health events in various places intensified this month, affecting the entry of raw materials and the delivery of products, poor logistics, slow shipment speed of manufacturers and reduced market supply. Therefore, the price was strong. Near the end of the month, R22 price fell slightly. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 10200-10500 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5250 yuan / ton, the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton, the price in Shandong is about 17500 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the price in Guangzhou is about 18000 yuan / ton.

Refrigerant R134a market declined in March, with a decrease of 8.48% in the month. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the price of trichloroethylene is stable, the cost is under pressure, the demand of the car market is still weak, the market supply exceeds demand, coupled with the intensification of local public health events and poor logistics, the manufacturers are eager to clear the goods, the price is frequently reduced, and the mentality of the operators is negative. At present, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-26000 yuan / ton, about 24800-25500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 24500-25000 yuan / ton in Hunan, about 26000-30000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu and about 27000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou.

In terms of raw materials, on March 28, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers rose to 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants rose. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was low, and the supply of on-site goods was tight. Recently, the price of fluorite rose steadily, medium and small. The price of raw fluorite was good for the domestic hydrofluoric acid market, but the downstream refrigerant market was depressed and the on-site procurement was not active, On the whole, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is expected to rise in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business society, the public health incident in March affected the entry of raw materials and the delivery of products. The market trading was not smooth, and the refrigerant price fell. In the short term, R22 was supported by the cost and supply side, but the price was strong. R134a had high inventory pressure, continued to reduce prices and ship goods, and there was still a risk of decline in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9675 yuan / ton on March 18.

In terms of cost, this week, the overall weakness of domestic high-temperature coal tar was consolidated, with both ups and downs. Affected by the control of epidemic situations around the country, the domestic logistics transportation was seriously blocked. When the inventory of raw coking coal was not high, the start-up of coke enterprises was limited, but the overall price was high, and the cost pressure of carbon black enterprises was still high.

In terms of demand, in this month, tire manufacturers kept placing orders. In the case of strong demand in the main market, the supply and demand situation of carbon black market changed rapidly. Last week, it entered the tight situation of goods. According to market feedback, under the dual pressure of upstream and downstream, carbon black manufacturers had strong willingness to increase, mainstream carbon black manufacturers were full of orders, and even some carbon black manufacturers did not accept orders

In terms of import and export, in February 2022, the carbon black import volume fell month on month and increased year on year. The Spring Festival holiday in February runs through it. The construction of carbon black domestic rubber products enterprises reached the low point of the year, and the demand fell; Carbon black exports fell in February compared with the same month on month: the Spring Festival holiday in February runs through it, and the domestic and foreign markets ushered in the traditional off-season demand. Under the restrictions of logistics and other transportation, the delivery of carbon black export orders was slow, and the export volume fell.

Analysts expect the price of carbon black to rise steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5966 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 200 yuan / ton or 3.24% compared with the price on March 13, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6166 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market first rose slightly and then fell weakly, with an overall decline of more than 3% during the week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the shutdown of some units in Shandong, the supply of dimethyl carbonate in the field decreased, supporting the firm offer of the industry. On the 14th and 15th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market increased slightly, with an increase range of around 100-300 yuan / ton. On the 15th, the ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was around 6100-6500 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, the trend of upstream raw materials was weak, which weakened the cost support of dimethyl carbonate. In addition, the downstream operating rate was low and the demand was weak. Starting from the 16th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate Market weakened, the dimethyl carbonate factory made profit and shipped goods, and the factory price of dimethyl carbonate was reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton. The market continued to operate weakly. On the 18th, affected by logistics restrictions and other factors, The market focus of dimethyl carbonate continued to move downward. As of the 18th, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China was around 5800-6200 yuan / ton. At present, the floor trading of dimethyl carbonate is cold and the turnover is limited.

On the upstream side of propylene oxide, the market price of propylene oxide has fallen recently. Last Wednesday, the price of raw propylene was high, the cost support was obvious, the supply was mainly stable, the downstream demand was general, and the price was strong under the support of strong cost. As the price of raw propylene gradually decreased, the cost support gradually weakened, the market supply was abundant, the demand side was cold, and the market price of epoxypropane decreased. On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11100-11300 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall performance of domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream is cautious and just needs to purchase. The dimethyl carbonate data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak, mainly sorting and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes of supply and demand.