Trade name: melamine

Latest price (March 23): 12266.67 yuan / ton

On March 23, the melamine market was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 0.54% compared with the price on February 23. At present, the upstream urea price is rising, the cost support is rising, the supply side is gradually expected to improve, the demand side is weak, the logistics in some regions is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be deadlocked.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 4880 yuan / ton on March 18, up 0.62% during the week compared with 4850 yuan / ton at the end of last week. As of March 18, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

Region, March 12th ., March 18th ., Price rise and fall

South China, 4700-4800 yuan / ton ., 4800 yuan / ton, 100/0

North China, 4550-4650 yuan / ton ., 4700 yuan / ton 150/50

Shandong Province, 4500-4650 yuan / ton ., 4600 yuan / ton, 100/50

Jiangsu Province, 4650-4750 yuan / ton ., 4550 yuan / ton, – 100/-200

Zhejiang Province, 4750-4850 yuan / ton ., 4650 yuan / ton, – 100/-200

During the week, the acetic acid market was consolidated and operated, and the manufacturer’s quotation rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, acetic acid manufacturers continued to follow the market price rise at the weekend, and the market consolidation during the week was down, mainly due to the rapid rise of acetic acid market price, the digestion and increase in the downstream, the resistance to the high price supply and the purchase of rigid demand in the market. At present, in terms of market supply and demand, the supply is sufficient, the demand is relatively stable, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate continued to decline. On March 18, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8050 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.40% during the week. In terms of start-up, the unit changes little, the ethyl acetate operating rate is stable, the main factories remain normal compared with last week, the demand side is affected by the epidemic, the transportation is blocked, the market demand is weakened, coupled with the decline of cost, and the price of ethyl acetate is reduced.

According to the acetic acid analyst of business society, at present, the downstream of the acetic acid market occupies a dominant position. Under the pull-up in the early stage, the market quotation is still passively lowered to meet the market. The market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the short-term market is weak. In the long run, there is market news that the main manufacturers in North and East China plan to overhaul at the end of March. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the future, and pay attention to the situation of enterprise devices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 15133 yuan / ton on March 14 and 14333 yuan / ton on March 18. The price of caprolactam fell 5.29% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, caprolactam fell after a sharp rise in the early stage, and the price fell. Due to the poor raw material market this week, the raw material price continued to decline, and the cost support of caprolactam was insufficient. Cautious floor trading, tight supply and unstable market mentality. As of March 18, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14900 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water is 14300 yuan / ton, which is accepted and sent to East China, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

This week, the raw material pure benzene continued to decline, and the price fell broadly. The crude oil price fell slightly, and the lower price of pure benzene was not supported by the weak price of pure benzene in Asia. Public health incidents in many places in China have affected transportation, limited factory shipments and inventory accumulation. In order to promote shipments, local refining enterprises in Shandong have continuously reduced prices. Although crude oil fell broadly, the price is still high, the cost pressure is prominent, and the operating rate of pure benzene decreased this week.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that due to the current poor raw material market, the cost support force has decreased. Downstream on-demand procurement, general demand. The supply of caprolactam is relatively small, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will fluctuate in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw material market.

The domestic aggregated MDI market price is weak, the receipt and delivery of goods in the trade market has become the biggest problem, and the logistics and transportation are seriously limited, which inhibits the terminal consumption of aggregated MDI. In addition, the prices of raw materials such as pure benzene and aniline continued to decline, making it difficult to boost the market of polymerized MDI in the short term.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from March 11 to 18, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 19800 yuan / ton to 19016 yuan / ton. The price fell by 3.96% during the week, 11.28% month on month and 24.31% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of March 18:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

South China, 18800-19000 yuan / ton ., 18000-18300 yuan / ton

East China, 19000 yuan / ton ,. 18000-18200 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong, 18800-19000 yuan / ton, near 18000-18200 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of March 18:

Raw material pure benzene: the price of raw material pure benzene fell. Crude oil continued to fall. The macro support of pure benzene weakened. Downstream styrene prices fell, and styrene and caprolactam maintained cash flow losses, and demand support remained weak.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: domestic aniline maintained a weak and stable pattern in the week. Transportation in some areas is limited, the shipment of aniline factory and the procurement of downstream factories are not smooth, and the discharge of aniline into the warehouse is slow.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be dominated by shock consolidation.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PC market fell this week, and the spot price decreased as a whole. As of March 17, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business society was about 22933.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 2.52% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic bisphenol a market demand is poor, transactions are rare, the downstream demand is also weak, and the market momentum is not strong, mainly for the delivery of early contract goods. Crude oil fell sharply this week, the upstream and downstream markets weakened simultaneously, and the market wait-and-see sentiment increased. The short-term just needs to be followed up, and the spot price may continue to weaken.

The upstream bisphenol a market fell, weakening the cost side support of PC. In terms of industry load, recently, some domestic PC enterprises have started to improve after maintenance, the overall load has increased slightly, and the benefits of the early supply side have been gradually diluted. In terms of news, the tension in Eastern Europe has shown signs of easing recently, increasing the uncertainty of the petrochemical industry chain. In addition, the health incident has rebounded in some parts of China, the mentality of domestic operators has weakened, market transportation and demand have been affected at the same time, merchants’ offer has been reduced, and shipments tend to follow the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic PC market fell this week, the upstream bisphenol a market fell, and the cost side has weak support for PC. In terms of supply, the on-site supply of goods increased slightly, and the crude oil in the remote upstream fell sharply recently, driving the weakness of downstream industrial chain products. At present, the demand and transportation of some regional markets are restricted by health events, and the trading volume decreases. Many factors cause the superposition of bad and bad conditions in the domestic PC market. It is expected that the spot price may be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 16, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 726 yuan / ton. Compared with March 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock was 710 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 16 yuan / ton, or 2.35%. Compared with February 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock was 700 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 26 yuan / ton, or 3.81%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that last week, the domestic phosphorus ore ushered in the first rise in the market since the spring. The market price rise of domestic 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 10-30 yuan / ton. Entering this week, the supply in the phosphate rock field continued to be tight, the downstream demand performed well, the trading atmosphere in the field was mild, and the phosphate rock market operated stably at a high level. As of March 16, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guizhou is around 670-720 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 580-650 yuan / ton. The increase range of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is about 10-30 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is about 680-730 yuan / ton. At present, the goods in the phosphate rock field are tight, the price is strong as a whole, and the market in the field continues to be high and strong.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product . region . Taste Price . remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou . 30%. 670-720 yuan / ton . Factory price

Phosphate rock . Guizhou . 28%. 580-650 yuan / ton . Factory price

Phosphate rock . Guangxi . 30%. 680-730 yuan / ton . Factory price

Phosphate rock . Guangxi . 28%. 600-650 yuan / ton . Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in March, the overall domestic yellow phosphorus market moved downward slightly. The on-site inquiry is general, and the transaction of new orders is limited. The downstream is more resistant to high-priced yellow phosphorus, the transaction of new orders is limited, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the inquiry is general. It is mainly just needed and can be used and taken at any time. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 15, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 33750 yuan / ton, down 14.19% compared with March 1 (39333.33 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall support of the domestic phosphorus ore market is relatively favorable. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from March 4 to 11, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 11200 yuan / ton to 11666 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.17% during the week, and the price fell by 6.91% month on month and 14.38% year-on-year.

This week, domestic cyclohexanone continued to rise, and crude oil rose at a high level. Sinopec’s pure benzene was listed for three times, raising 700 yuan / ton to 8900 yuan / ton. The pressure on the cost side continued to increase, and the downstream chemical fiber and solvent just needed to follow up. Although the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak, under the pressure of cost, cyclohexanone is reluctant to sell at a low price, and the transaction focus keeps rising.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of March 11:

region ., Price

East China . 11900-12000 yuan / ton, cash delivery of the whole vehicle

South China . 12200-12300 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region . 11750-11850 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: East China pure benzene rises first and then falls, and the price fluctuates widely between 8350-8950 yuan / ton. The sharp rise and fall of crude oil has become the main factor leading the price change of pure benzene.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business agency:

Downstream caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose sharply. In the near future, the market is still strongly supported by the cost side. The price of crude oil has soared to the range of 125-130 US dollars, the price of pure benzene has risen to 8900 yuan / ton, and the cost of caprolactam continues to rise. In addition, the supply of caprolactam has decreased recently. Enterprises mainly increase the price and reduce losses, and the price of caprolactam has kept rising.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business society:

The supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak, but if crude oil and pure benzene continue to rise, there is still room for rise under the pressure of cyclohexanone cost. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business agency expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to fluctuate at a high level.

This week (3.4-3.11), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 11, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China was 13840 yuan / ton, up 1.91% from 13580 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises increased. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 11, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13900 yuan / ton. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, and the international crude oil price reached above US $100 / barrel, with strong cost support. After the price of raw butadiene rose, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber rebounded.

The start-up of polybutadiene rubber is mainly stable.

This week, the operation level of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is relatively high, with loose supply.

Butadiene prices continued to rise sharply this week, with higher costs. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 11, the price of butadiene was 9286 yuan / ton, up 9.11% from 8511 yuan / ton on Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of natural rubber was 13170 yuan / ton as of March 11, up 1.00% from 13040 yuan / ton last Friday.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the price of raw materials has rebounded sharply, supported by the cost side. In addition, after the two sessions and the winter Paralympic Games, the downstream construction may increase significantly, and the demand side support is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will be dominated in the later stage.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72926.67 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 70890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.76% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is relatively volatile.

Supply and demand: although Russia Ukraine negotiations have no substantive results, logistics and transportation have been eased, domestic demand is weak, and imported copper has suffered a significant loss. In terms of monetary policy, it may be a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. Copper prices continued to strengthen, curbing downstream consumption, and the trend of domestic inventory base continued. The Shanghai nickel incident has had a certain impact on the market. Major exchanges have issued relevant regulatory measures, and the market sentiment has changed. Oil prices plummeted, and copper fell 3.46% overnight, falling below the 10000 yuan mark. Lun Ni’s suspension of trading has heated up the market’s cautious mood, and the weakness of Shanghai copper and the lack of bright spots in domestic downstream consumption.

To sum up: the reality shows marginal improvement, downstream replenishment increases, consumption shows signs of recovery, and the domestic social pool continues to decline. The strong growth expectation was implemented, and the economic growth target of 5.5% exceeded the expectation. It may be released gradually in the later stage, with marginal improvement in fundamentals. The short-term events in Russia and Ukraine and lunni may affect sentiment, with increased volatility. Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile.

From February 25 to March 4, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly, from 6533 yuan / ton last weekend to 6591 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.89%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

February 7, 8100.,+400

February 14, 7950.,-150

February 18, 7750.,-200

February 24,. 7900+ one hundred and fifty

March 3, 8200.,+300

On March 3, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 300 yuan / ton, 8200 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical 8150 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8150 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8203 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on March 2, the price of international crude oil futures continued to rise sharply. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both rose above the US $110 mark, and the settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $110.60/barrel, up US $7.19 or 7.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $112.93/barrel, up US $7.96 or 7.6%. Oil prices continued to rise amid the spread of war in Ukraine. The market is expected that the sanctions imposed on Russia may lead to a large withdrawal of oil assets, and the shortage of crude oil supply is expected to further increase in the coming months. On March 3, the US Iran nuclear talks made some progress, and Iranian oil returned to the international supply market, which alleviated the tension of supply to a certain extent. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was reported at US $107.67/barrel, down US $2.93 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.46/barrel, down US $2.47 or 2.2%.

This week, with the boost of crude oil prices, the pure benzene market began to rise at the weekend. On March 3, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical raised the price of pure benzene by 250 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, and HSBC Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton. In the outer disk, Asian pure benzene rose broadly, domestic pure benzene rose with crude oil, and the bottom support strengthened. At present, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8150-8450 yuan / ton. Although the fundamentals are good, the downstream styrene of pure benzene performs generally, so the price increase of pure benzene is limited. On Thursday, major domestic enterprises opened this round of bidding, and the bidding price increase is not obvious this week. The mainstream bidding price in Shandong is 6630 ~ 6635 yuan / ton, only up 65 yuan / ton.

In the future, some crude oil fell over the weekend, and the overall good of the industrial chain is limited. It is expected that crude benzene will mainly fluctuate.