According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic rare earth market price index was mainly stable this week, the domestic rare earth industry had little change, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price trend was temporarily stable. On June 19, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
The price of some products in the domestic light rare earth market fell slightly this week, and the trend of some mainstream praseodymium neodymium products in the rare earth market was mainly stable. In terms of products:
It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of neodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium are stable, and the prices of praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide are slightly lower. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 980000 yuan / ton, which was stable this week; The price of neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton, which is flat; The price of praseodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 947500 yuan / ton, down 1.56% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1156500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.73%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.265 million yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable.
The domestic rare earth market price is mainly stable, and the downstream procurement is not active recently. Some metal plants have procurement demand, and the on-site price is slightly lower. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the spot purchase demand is still there, and the rare earth market is higher. Due to the normal supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are located in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles has decreased, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the price trend in the market is stable. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market consolidation of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly focused. In addition, the rare earth metal plant is cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the consolidation of the rare earth market in the site is the main thing.
The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the market price has risen slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. The automobile production and sales have risen sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field has been normal, the domestic light rare earth market has remained high, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has remained stable.
It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China is temporarily stable. As of the 20th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.545 million yuan / ton, and the price trend this week is temporarily stable; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2535000 yuan / ton, with a stable trend; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.315 million yuan / ton, and the price trend was stable this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly stable. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 14.45 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 18.45 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths is weak and stable. The leading magnetic material factory purchases on demand, which keeps the domestic heavy rare earth market at a high level. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places is reduced. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic situation being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the market is temporarily stable.
In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of +23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, which is flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earth will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.
The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production continues to spread, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the normative governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, the upstream ion mines The waste cost is high and the supply is low, which still supports the price of rare earth. Chen Ling, an analyst at business agency, predicts that the domestic rare earth market price may remain high.