Trend of metallic magnesium in May
In June, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 25500-29000 yuan / ton, the average price in the cycle was 27166.67, and the rise and fall of commodities was -100%. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the magnesium market was in a weak position as a whole, and the contradiction between supply and demand was becoming increasingly prominent. Magnesium factories also continued to reduce their quotations. Subsequently, affected by the rise in the price of ferrosilicon and the price of magnesium getting closer to the cost line, the price of magnesium ingots rebounded slightly.
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In the middle of June, the price stabilization mentality of magnesium plants became more and more strong, there was no obvious breakthrough in downstream demand, and the market was difficult to reverse. The overall operation of magnesium market remained weak and stable, and the mainstream transaction price remained around 25000-26000 yuan / ton. A small number of small-scale magnesium enterprises were eager to ship and lowered the transaction price.
In late June, the cost pressure began to appear, the profit space of magnesium plants was continuously compressed, the magnesium ingot Market maintained a weak and stable operation, and the magnesium plants were not willing to ship at low prices due to profits and high temperature weather. Some magnesium plants began to carry out maintenance plans one after another. According to the sales staff of a magnesium factory, the quotation of the factory has been stable at 26000 yuan / ton recently, and they are not willing to ship below this price.
According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 26166.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 3000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, a decrease of 10.80%, and an increase of 35.34% compared with the same period last year.
Market analysis
Slight increase in export
According to customs statistics, the total export volume of metallic magnesium in May was 44587.325 tons, a month on month increase of 4.93% and a year-on-year increase of 17.40%; The quantity of magnesium powder was 6160.069 tons, with a month on month increase of 4.60% and a year-on-year increase of 5.39%; The quantity of magnesium products was 777.108 tons, with a month on month increase of 82.98% and a year-on-year increase of 55.31%.
In May, the domestic magnesium ingot output was about 85800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.95% and an operating rate of 73.67%. In May, due to the completion of the environmental protection supervision of the northern magnesium plant, the output returned to the normal level. In June, the magnesium ingot market fell to the low point of the year. Considering the cost pressure and the high temperature, the work became more difficult. Some factories began the maintenance plan. It is expected that the domestic magnesium ingot output will decline slightly in June.
From the perspective of raw material relationship
Ferrosilicon fell 4.19% in June
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In terms of ferrosilicon, the price of ferrosilicon first rose and then fell in June. As of June 29, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia fluctuated in the range of 8200-8500 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic demand for ferrosilicon is relatively cold, and the downstream steel mills lost money and reduced production. The market’s demand expectation for ferrosilicon is poor. Coupled with the low futures price, the transaction price of ferrosilicon continues to fall. However, the spot price has basically reached the cost line, and the room for decline is relatively limited, In the short term, the spot market is still weak and stable.
Coke fell by 16.05% in June
In terms of coke, in the first half of June, the coke market increased by 300 yuan / ton in two rounds, and decreased by 300 yuan / ton in the second half of the month, and the price fell back to the level at the beginning of the month. As of June 29, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3000 yuan / ton. The coke market as a whole was weak, and the profits of coking enterprises were damaged. At present, the overall start-up was low. However, considering that the demand for coke still exists in the steel plant, if the production limit of coking enterprises is increased again, The coke output is affected, so the second round of lifting and lowering is temporarily stranded.
Aftermarket forecast
In the first half of the year, the overall market of magnesium market was in a downward channel. The main contradiction of magnesium ingots lies in the low demand and rising cost. It is difficult to resolve the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term. At present, the magnesium plant is willing to maintain stability, but it still needs to pay attention to the future transaction.
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