This week, metal silicon gradually showed signs of stopping falling and stabilizing, and the overall market fell weakly. As of April 15, according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 20920 yuan / ton, down 510 yuan / ton, down 2.38%.

The price of 441# silicon in each region on the 15th is as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 20800-21000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port area is 20800-21100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20950 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 20500-20700 yuan / ton, with an average of 20600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 20500-20600 yuan / ton, with an average of 20550 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 21500-21700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21600 yuan / ton.

Demand side

The metal silicon market as a whole is weak. Recently, large downstream factories have been fully prepared for bidding and procurement, and the demand in April has made the metal silicon market gradually active. The trading volume has increased significantly, and the transaction price has basically stopped falling. There have also been situations in which the quotation of some factories remains stable and it is difficult for buyers to keep the price down. At the same time, the special situation of the current epidemic, poor logistics, especially in East China, leads to difficult order delivery and general market transactions.

Downstream aspect

Many downstream silicone and aluminum alloy enterprises shut down maintenance. Under the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloy decreased again this week. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises this week was still 67%, down by two percentage points; The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.2%.

After a short rise, the silicone market fell. The market quotation of mainstream DMC monomer factory was 27000-28800 yuan / ton. Except that the price fluctuated greatly in Shandong, the quotation in other regions was relatively stable. Affected by factors such as logistics and transportation, the trading atmosphere in the venue was still light.

Polysilicon prices rose slightly, and the supply side remained tight. At present, most of the devices of 12 domestic silicon material manufacturers started normally, but some silicon material manufacturers still took maintenance actions in April and may.

Future forecast

On the whole, silicon factories are in a dilemma. On the one hand, raw material prices are rising and production costs are rising, resulting in repeated compression of profit space. Some silicon factories resist downstream price reduction due to cost reasons; On the other hand, the downstream demand and overseas export situation are always not optimistic. After the silicon price stabilized this week, most of the rigid demand was released, and the buyers’ wait-and-see mood is still strong. Business analysts believe that the market lacks good news, and the price of metal silicon is weak and stable in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly in mid April, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of April 18, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 27750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 10.48% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China continued to decline, and the weekly decline of adipic acid in East China was 0.97%. On the one hand, the prices of upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell. In addition, the supply increased compared with the previous period, while the terminal demand was still cautious and the transaction was not ideal, resulting in the continuous weak downward trend of adipic acid. The domestic supply of adiponitrile is abundant, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fell, the market supply of adiponitrile improved, and the cost side support of PA66 was general. At present, there are limited changes in the operating rate of the industry. The load level of domestic PA66 enterprises is basically in dynamic balance, with a high horizontal plate. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, which has a certain suppression on the profits of PA66 enterprises. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, at present, the impact of domestic health events still exists, and the logistics in many places are affected to varying degrees. The demand of some downstream factories in China is shrinking, and the shipment resistance of merchants is large. On site transactions declined, the seller’s mentality was poor, and the operation continued to reduce prices and take orders.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to decline in mid April. The market of adiponitrile on the raw material side was weak, the market of adipic acid also fell, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The supply of PA66 is sufficient, and there is inventory pressure on enterprises and midstream. The demand side has a deep resistance to high price supply, and the market trading continues to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (April 19): 10300.00 yuan / ton

On April 19, the melamine market was mainly stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and 14.17% lower than the price on March 19. Recently, the upstream urea price is relatively strong, the cost pressure is large, and the maintenance expectation of some units has a certain support for the market mentality, but the downstream demand is still light and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be sorted out and operated stably.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 was generally stable in mid April, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. As of April 18, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprises was about 15766.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose last week. Crude oil rebounded and rose sharply after falling, the center of gravity of raw material pure benzene rose slightly, and the cost of caprolactam was well supported. Recently, the supply of some caprolactam enterprises has decreased due to plant maintenance or planned maintenance. It is expected that the caprolactam market will run better in the short term.

The price of caprolactam in the upstream increased, and the cost side support of PA6 increased. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at more than 70%, rising narrowly last week. In terms of news, the international crude oil price fluctuation caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but recently, due to market differences and other factors, the support and transmission effect on the cost side of PA6 has weakened. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, the demand of downstream enterprises is weak, and the on-site trading is general. I heard that the operating rate of downstream enterprises is general and the willingness to prepare goods is not strong. In addition, the logistics obstruction in many places caused by health events has not ended, and some factories have reduced the production proportion of PA6 products, resulting in weak demand for PA6 and empty market.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 rose narrowly in mid April, the trend of caprolactam rose steadily as a whole, and the cost support of PA6 was acceptable. Downstream enterprises tend to take goods on bargain hunting and just need to take goods to maintain production. It is expected that PA6 market trend may be dominated by narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

This week (April 11-15), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stabilized after rising. The transaction focus in northern regions such as Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi has generally risen, which is mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the region and the failure of some devices. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of April 15, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.67%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places was mainly flat compared with the previous week, with a partial decline. At present, it is still strong in the South and weak in the north. In particular, there are too many unit maintenance in the south, and the reduction of supply has led to the price of liquid ammonia remaining above the 5000 yuan mark this week. Affected by public health events in northern regions such as Shandong, the shipment is not smooth, but it is also accompanied by plant shutdown and maintenance, and the supply pressure is small. However, the plant is restarted in the middle of the week, and the supply pressure may gradually form in the later stage.

Cost side

The upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price maintains the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. With the fall of natural gas price, the cost pressure of gas head enterprises has been relieved. According to the monitoring of business agency, LNG fell by 5.71% this week.

Demand side

In the end, the downstream of liquid ammonia still maintained a moderate growth trend, the price of urea stabilized after falling, and the rebound trend of ammonium nitrate, ammonium chloride and other products continued last week. On the whole, the downstream agricultural demand is still strong, and the industrial demand is normal. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the curve crosses in April. It is mainly due to the impact of the high decline of urea price, and the strong price of liquid ammonia also brings some cost pressure to the downstream. However, at present, the price difference between the two has narrowed and maintained a reasonable level.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, at present, the profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain continue to improve, the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head falls, the coal price is affected by the policy, and the price remains weak, which is conducive to alleviating the downstream cost pressure. The middle and lower reaches recovered, the enterprise profit increased, and the profit of liquid ammonia increased significantly compared with the previous period. The downstream areas have also improved significantly, with formic acid, ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate rising to varying degrees.

Future forecast

According to the business society, at present, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia has maintained a basic balance, and the differentiation trend of local supply and demand. The current situation of supply shortage in the South has eased compared with last week. The resumption of plant production in the North has also brought loose expectations to the market. Some manufacturers have reduced the ex factory price at the weekend, and the possibility of continued price loosening in the later stage cannot be ruled out. The demand side is dominated by rigid demand, so it is difficult to see too much in the later price. In addition, public health events are still fermenting, which will still bring some pressure on transportation in the later stage. Generally speaking, under the condition of basically balanced supply and demand, the ammonia market may still maintain a high consolidation pattern in the near future.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1415.00 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1402.50 yuan / ton, down 0.88%. The current price fell 2.60% month on month, and the current price rose 5.19% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has fallen for three consecutive weeks recently, and the market continues to decline slightly this week. As of April 14, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1430-1470 yuan / ton. Recently, due to domestic public health incidents, some downstream plate factories have been shut down for holidays, and the demand for formaldehyde has decreased. At present, it is difficult to deliver formaldehyde products. The shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers is under pressure, and the market continues to decline.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of April 14:

Region, Price

East China, 1520 yuan / ton

North China, 1430 yuan / ton

South China, 1420 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1350 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol situation: this week, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. In the early stage, it fell due to the sharp decline of crude oil. In the later stage, although local transportation gradually recovered, the price rebounded slightly. In addition, some methanol units were gradually overhauled in spring, and downstream enterprises just needed replenishment. The trading atmosphere of traders improved. In the short term, the methanol market may rise moderately.

This week, the methanol market first fell and then rose. The cost support is general. Some downstream plate factories are on holiday and shut down, and public safety events in various parts of the country are still stricter. Because logistics and transportation still have a major impact on the circulation of goods, the cross regional circulation of formaldehyde in various regions is greatly limited, the shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers is difficult, the market trading atmosphere is cold, and the formaldehyde market has fallen one after another.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has an upward trend, but the demand for formaldehyde from downstream wood board factories is difficult to improve in a short time. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of business society expect that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in the near future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 17733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.38%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17300 yuan / ton, which fell by 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend is 18000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol weekend distribution price is 17700 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week increased from 13566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.19%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was good. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In mid April, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support was good, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol in business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was about 2600 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2612.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.48% and 49.12% over the same period last year. On April 10, the commodity index of light soda ash was 133.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.15% from the highest point of 189.10 in the cycle (2021-11-07), and up 112.15% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash was adjusted and operated this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash in this week is 86.45%, and the output of soda ash in this week is 573000.

Demand: according to the monitoring of business society, the glass price rose slightly this week. The average price of glass on Monday was 24.14 yuan / m2, and the average price on the weekend was 24.44 yuan / m2. The price increased by 1.24% during the week. The North China Shahe glass market is mainly organized and operated. Affected by the epidemic, most of the logistics are blocked and the inventory is high. The overall market trading situation of the market in East China is general, wait and see, and the market price maintains stable operation. Central China is mainly stable, and the downstream is cautious in taking goods and wait-and-see. South China’s glass spot market operates stably, with more wait-and-see in the downstream and just in need of procurement. Forecast: in the short term, the glass spot market will focus on consolidation and operation.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the 14th week of 2022 (4.4-4.8), there were two kinds of commodities rising, two kinds of commodities falling and one kind of commodity rising or falling to zero. The main commodities rising are: caustic soda (9.04%), light soda ash (0.48%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.89%) and PVC (- 0.22%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.88%%.

Analysts of the business agency believe that: soda ash operates in a large, stable and small dynamic market, the market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and more and appropriate purchases are made in the downstream. Due to the impact of public health events, transportation is blocked. It is comprehensively expected that soda ash consolidation market will operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of April 11, the average price of melamine enterprises was 11766.67 yuan / ton, down 1.40% compared with the price on April 1, 1.94% compared with the price on March 11, and a year-on-year increase of 20.27% in a three-month cycle.

The recent melamine market is weak. Recently, the price of urea has fallen, the cost support has weakened, the operating rate of melamine is high and the supply side is abundant, but the downstream operating rate is low, the demand side is light, the manufacturers’ shipment is under pressure, coupled with the poor logistics and transportation in some areas, the market trading atmosphere is light and the price is weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week (4.4-4.8), and the quotation fell from 2953.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2930.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.78%, up 38.64% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the upstream urea price is rising, the cost support is limited, and the supply and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.89%, up 2.85% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On April 7, the calcium carbide commodity index was 116.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.27% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 109.34% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support weakened and the downstream market fell slightly

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 4300 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian offered 4200 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 4150 yuan / ton, which fell by 250 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Judging from the upstream raw material market, the market of Lanchan was low this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials was adjusted at a low level and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. The ex factory price of PVC this week fell from 9040.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9020.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.22%, up 1.29% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of PVC fell slightly this week, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream products fell slightly, while calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In the middle and early ten days of April, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a low level, the cost support of calcium carbide was weakened, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of April.