1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline rose broadly in the first ten days of the month, and then fluctuated and stabilized to the end of the month. On June 1, the price in Shandong was 11200-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11800 yuan / ton; On June 28, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month increased by 5.29% over the beginning of the month and 14.54% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material, pure benzene: due to the continuous rise of crude oil in the early stage, the price of pure benzene in the outer disk rose, the import of pure benzene decreased, the ports continued to destock, and the minimum inventory in East China ports fell to 48000 tons. The high pressure in the lower reaches, coupled with demand support, stimulated the continuous rise of pure benzene to exceed 10000 yuan. In the later stage, with the decline of crude oil and the external market, the superposition of downstream losses expanded, some units were economically reduced and shut down, the demand fell, and the vibration of pure benzene fell. The price of pure benzene was 9167 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9501 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 3.64% this month and 17% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose continuously this month, and the price rose broadly. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2683 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2950 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 9.94% compared with the beginning of the month and 27.34% compared with the same period last year. Since the middle and late June, nitric acid shipments have increased, and the supply of nitric acid is tight, supporting the continuous rise of nitric acid prices.

Aniline fluctuated mainly due to the influence of raw materials in this month. In the first ten days, the price of pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose, and the cost side was under pressure. Aniline followed the raw material side. In the later stage, although the price of pure benzene fell, nitric acid was still rising, and the downstream demand for aniline was acceptable, so the price remained stable until the end of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: Although crude oil and external market support still exist, some downstream products of pure benzene continue to suffer losses, and the short-term trend is cautious. In the later stage, pure benzene units are still put into operation, mainly concentrated in the integrated units of refining and chemical enterprises, with small external sales volume. New production capacity is still put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is expanding. On the whole, pure benzene will still operate at a high level in the future.

Nitric acid: near the end of the month, the delivery of nitric acid is slowing down, and the price adjustment of nitric acid is expected to be the main.

At present, the profit space of aniline is compressed by the cost side, and there is little room for decline. It is expected to maintain sideways consolidation in the short term, waiting for downstream buying. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, the change of downstream demand and the change of operating rate of aniline plant.