According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated sharply recently. As of April 1st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 158000 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 8.67% and a year-on-year increase of 113.61%.

This round of market trend is no longer simply driven by supply and demand, but the result of multiple disturbances and repeated fermentation on the supply side, as well as the amplification of emotions in a low inventory environment.
Supply side: Two major sources of disturbance repeatedly ferment
（1） Zimbabwe: Export ban ‘pending’
On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe suddenly announced an indefinite suspension of lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, covering goods in transit.
Affected by this news, the price of lithium carbonate jumped from 140000/ton to 170000/ton. Recently, there have been talks between Chinese funded enterprises and the government, but the details have not been implemented yet. The market oscillates between “relaxation of bans” and “long-term tightening”, and every rumor triggers a huge price shock.
（2） Australia: ‘Oil Shortage Storm’
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, there is a shortage of diesel in some mines in Australia, and there are reports of “load reduction and compression operations”. Lithium carbonate saw a daily increase of 8000 yuan/ton. Although it was later clarified that Australian diesel is mainly used in the transportation sector, and mining electricity mainly relies on natural gas, so it has not yet affected lithium mining production, the continent’s lithium mines are facing problems such as declining grade, slowing expansion, and reduced production of high cost mines during low price periods, resulting in a significant decrease in supply elasticity. Any marginal disturbance is easily amplified as a ‘risk of supply interruption’.
Bottom level environment: low inventory+demand resilience, amplifying the power of supply disruptions
At the end of March, inventory shifted from destocking to accumulation, but the magnitude was small and still at a low level. The overall social inventory is low, and once the supply tightens and expectations rise, it is highly likely to trigger “grabbing” and price surges. There is no obvious collapse on the demand side, and geopolitical factors have led to an increase in oil prices. The economy of energy storage is prominent, and the market momentum is strong.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the uncertainty of resuming production in Zimbabwe, Australia, and the suspended Ningde Jianxiawo will exist for a long time. Every policy change and logistics obstruction may trigger a new round of ups and downs, and lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate. Specific changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.