In the first half of May, the domestic market price of epichlorohydrin first rose and then fell. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 12800 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.54% compared to the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:

On the raw material side, the price of glycerol remains stable at a high level, while the cost side of epichlorohydrin provides strong support. Recently, the domestic propylene market has been driven by refinery maintenance and the urgent demand for chemical products, resulting in stable prices with slight increases. The supply of goods is tight, and companies have weak willingness to proactively lower prices and ship, which has formed rigid support for market prices. The price of glycerol remains volatile at a high level. Overall, the positive side of the raw material market outweighs the negative side, and the cost support is stable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9264.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Several mainstream enterprises in major production areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hebei have entered the annual maintenance and repair stage, involving large production capacity scales. The maintenance cycle is concentrated in mid to late May, and the short-term market output has significantly declined; Some small and medium-sized glycerol production facilities have been continuously shut down due to losses, further reducing the market’s effective production capacity.
On the demand side: In May, downstream demand showed stable demand, limited incremental growth, and structural improvement, providing moderate support for upstream raw materials without explosive growth. The construction coatings, flooring, and adhesive industries have entered the traditional peak season, with steady release of essential procurement; However, the pace of recovery in the real estate industry is slow, and terminal consumption is lower than expected. Downstream resin companies mainly rely on on-demand procurement and stocking, with weak willingness to hoard and limited bulk purchases, resulting in insufficient demand growth. Overall, the demand side is stable but not strong, with no obvious negative factors, and it is difficult to drive prices to soar significantly, resulting in a weak balance between supply and demand.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the high cost side price of epichlorohydrin will provide stable support, and downstream demand will steadily follow. However, in the long run, the raw material propylene may experience a slight decline in price and weakened cost support due to the concentrated resumption of production in refining units; In addition, with the concentrated resumption of maintenance equipment in May, new production capacity is gradually being released, industry operating rates are recovering, supply of goods is increasing, and supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent; It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will fall at a high level in the later stage, and the mainstream price will fall back to the range of 12200-13000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is mainly characterized by wide fluctuations, and the probability of a significant decline is relatively small. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.