This week (4.27-30), domestic liquid ammonia prices showed weak upward momentum, continuing last week’s correction. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.7%. The main reason is that under the background of stable downstream demand, local production increases and supply continues to exert pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

From the supply side, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week. Previously, some units underwent maintenance, and production in Shandong, Henan, Northwest and other places slightly decreased. This week, enterprise units are still gradually recovering, and ammonia production has increased. The market is slowly increasing, and there is a slight increase in market supply. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, most companies did not adjust their prices, and some companies in Shandong lowered their prices by less than 100 yuan. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level, especially in northern regions where spring plowing is coming to an end and downstream procurement is cooling down. Affected by weak demand and insufficient sustained demand in the later stage, according to the commodity analysis system, the weekly decline in urea was 0.27%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that liquid ammonia may remain stagnant in the short term, with little change in equipment and a relatively abundant supply pattern. In addition, there are not many favorable factors on the demand side, limited replenishment of agricultural demand, on-demand procurement in the market, and industrial rigid demand as the main focus. There are currently no bright spots in the market, and the ammonia market may maintain an adjustment pattern.