Isooctanol market trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of isooctanol increased by 42.5% from about 6700 yuan/ton in early March to 9500 yuan/ton on April 8th, showing a unilateral upward trend overall. But since mid March, the price of isooctanol has first fallen and then risen, and the overall price has fluctuated and consolidated. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the price of isooctanol increased significantly in early March, and the market for isooctanol on the supply and demand sides was deadlocked, with limited support for the rise of isooctanol on the supply and demand sides.
US Iran ceasefire for two weeks
At the expiration of the deadline set by the Trump administration, the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan. According to the agreement, the ceasefire will take immediate effect, and Iran has agreed to temporarily open the Strait of Hormuz to ensure global shipping safety. The delegations of the United States and Iran will hold negotiations in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on April 10th. This news triggered severe fluctuations in the global commodity market, with crude oil prices plummeting. However, due to damage to energy facilities in the Middle East and slow supply chain repairs, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre conflict levels. Crude oil is the source of the chemical industry chain, and the decline in oil prices directly reduces production costs. The cost has decreased, and the pressure to lower the price of isooctanol has increased.
The supply and demand situation of isooctanol is deadlocked
Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, and the operating load of their facilities remains above 90%, indicating sufficient supply of isooctanol. Downstream procurement is mainly based on essential needs. If the PVC industry’s operating rate declines or export orders decrease in the future, the upward momentum of DOP prices may weaken. Overall, the supply and demand situation of isooctanol is deadlocked.
Spot Market Forecast
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of isooctanol has been above the 20 day moving average, 30 day moving average, and 60 day moving average since the spot moving average crossed other price moving averages in early March, indicating an upward trend; Starting from mid March, the spot moving average and 10 day moving average of isooctanol intertwine, indicating a volatile trend in the isooctanol market.
On April 7th, the price of isooctanol was at a high level in all cycles, and in the past 20 days, the price of isooctanol has been at a high level in cycles (30 day, 60 day, 90 day, and one-year levels), and has been on a warning of over inflation within a year. The price has risen too quickly in the short term and deviated from the moving average, increasing the risk of price decline and limiting the upward space. In the past 20 days, the price moving average of isooctanol has repeatedly crossed the 10 day moving average, indicating a strong willingness for the isooctanol market price to decline. The isooctanol market is deadlocked, but the risk of decline is accumulating.
comprehensive analysis
The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the supply and demand situation of isooctanol is deadlocked, and there is no significant upward support for isooctanol. From the trend of isooctanol price moving averages and price range warnings, it can be seen that the risk of isooctanol price decline has increased. In terms of cost, due to the impact of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, crude oil prices have plummeted, and the expected cost of isooctanol has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol. Overall, with cost reduction and supply-demand stalemate, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future market.