This week, the price of plasticizer DOP stopped rising and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 10th, the DOP price was 10275.83 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.16% compared to the DOP price of 10259.17 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to the DOP price of 10375.83 yuan/ton on April 8th, it has decreased by 0.96%. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which are rapidly transmitted downstream along the industry chain. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have risen sharply, the cost of DOP has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has risen significantly; The US Iran ceasefire agreement lasted for two weeks, causing a decline in crude oil prices and downstream product prices. The prices of octanol and phthalic anhydride also fell, and the cost of DOP decreased, resulting in a decrease in DOP prices.
The crude oil market is transmitted downstream
On April 8th, as the deadline set by the Trump administration expired, the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan. According to the agreement, the ceasefire will take immediate effect, and Iran has agreed to temporarily open the Strait of Hormuz to ensure global shipping safety. The delegations of the United States and Iran will hold negotiations in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on April 10th. This news has caused severe fluctuations in the global commodity market, with crude oil prices experiencing a sharp decline. However, due to damage to energy facilities in the Middle East and slow supply chain repairs, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre conflict levels. Crude oil is the source of the chemical industry chain, and the decline in oil prices is transmitted downstream, resulting in a decrease in the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride.
The price of raw material isooctanol has stopped rising and fallen
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 10th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.72% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 7th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 3.50% to 9533.33 yuan/ton. The ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has been reached, and the decline in crude oil prices has been transmitted downstream, resulting in a decrease in propylene prices and a decrease in costs. The price of isooctanol has also dropped.
Phthalic anhydride market stops rising and falls
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 10th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 9333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.89% compared to the price of 9416.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. The sharp drop in crude oil prices due to the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been transmitted downstream, increasing the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride. However, there are many shutdowns and maintenance of raw material benzene enterprises. In April, Yangzi Petrochemical’s benzene equipment was under maintenance, and in May, Jinling Petrochemical had a maintenance plan for its benzene equipment. The supply of benzene has been severely reduced, and there is insufficient room for the price of benzene to fall. The support of rising phthalic anhydride costs still exists, and the pressure of falling phthalic anhydride prices is insufficient. The support of plasticizer costs still exists.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in isooctanol prices and a decrease in the cost of plasticizer DOP. In the future, it is difficult for crude oil prices to return to their pre conflict low levels, which will be transmitted downstream. The downward space for isooctanol prices is limited, and the support of phthalic anhydride rising still exists. The cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has limited decline, and the downward pressure on plasticizer DOP is relatively small. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will weakly consolidate in the future.