According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 3rd to 7th, the domestic ethanol price was 5248 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 5.61% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%. The domestic ethanol market continues to decline. The main influencing factors include: the regional trend of raw material corn prices, the strong prices in the main production areas, which provide certain support for costs; In the early stage, the main factories purchased a lot of trendy grains, but currently, multidimensional production is at full capacity, and the market supply is abundant; Downstream chemical enterprises tend to purchase on demand and tend to seek low-priced sources, resulting in insufficient support on the demand side.

On the cost side, the speed of grain outflow from Northeast China, the sustained impact of grain quality issues in North China, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to build warehouses jointly dominate the short-term regional price trend. Recently, Henan, Shandong and other places have started to consume Northeast grain sources. Due to the tightening of logistics and regional supply and demand, delivery prices have increased. The favorable factors for ethanol cost have weakened.
On the supply side, the Northeast region has shown outstanding performance, with an overall operating rate of 92.43%, significantly higher than the national level. Specifically, major large enterprises in Heilongjiang continue to operate at overload, while other factories in the region have also maintained full production capacity, jointly driving up the overall operating load in Northeast China. Several previously suspended enterprises have recently resumed production, and the supply of ethanol is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream demand chemical industry takes ethyl acetate as an example. If the Anhui plant resumes production, the short-term operating rate will increase. Moreover, due to the current cost reduction and high production enthusiasm of factories with profits, the consumption of ethanol will increase. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
The future forecast shows that cost support will weaken, while supply will increase and demand will gradually recover. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will be mainly volatile.