According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was referred to as 17380 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of February 26, 2023 (the reference price of silicone DMC was 17660 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 280 yuan/ton, or 1.59%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency that this week (2.27-3.03), the domestic silicone DMC market as a whole rose steadily and fell slightly. At the beginning of the week, Shandong Big Factory successively lowered the ex-factory price of organosilicon DMC, which fell to about 16800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the transaction at low prices in the market improved, and the prices of large factories did not show any obvious performance of profit yield, and remained basically stable until the end of the week. At present, the overall downstream demand of organosilicon DMC terminal is general, and the digestion of raw materials is relatively slow. Some organosilicon DMC suppliers have also followed the large manufacturers to reduce their prices slightly. The leading large manufacturers still keep the initial quotations stable, and the difference between high and low prices in the organosilicon DMC field has widened. As of March 3, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was around 16800-17500 yuan/ton.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC market

At present, the supply side of silicone DMC is still relatively loose, and the supply side is generally supported. In terms of cost, although the market of raw materials has declined slightly, the support for the silicone DMC market is still limited. The current downstream demand still plays a key role in the trend of the silicone DMC market. The silicone DMC statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is mainly weak in sorting and operation, The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

Aluminum price fell by 3.37% in February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 28, 2023 was 18340 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, the aluminum price fell in mid-February, and the current price is at the low level in the month.

In the long term, the current price is in the broad range of the shock platform after the high correction, and the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton, up 5.10% compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, down 6.13%.

Overview of fundamentals

1. Inventory data

As of February 27, the domestic mainstream social inventory was 1.251 million tons, 1.076 million tons compared with the social inventory at the beginning of the month (February 2), and 185000 tons accumulated.

2. Production data

In January, China’s domestic primary aluminum output was 3.4 million tons, with an average daily output of about 110000 tons, slightly lower than that in December last year. Regional supply: Sichuan and Guangxi continue to resume production, with a total of 16 tons expected to resume production in February; Gansu and Inner Mongolia’s new investment is expected to reach 40000 tons this month; Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 3.7-80 million tons; Overall, at the end of February, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum fell back to 39.6 million tons.

3. Downstream commencement

By the end of the month, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises had risen to 61.8%. From the perspective of products, the operating rate of aluminum strip and aluminum foil plate is relatively good, except for aluminum alloy plate. Downstream operation has a positive trend as a whole, and it is expected that the short-term operation rate will maintain an upward trend.

Macroscopic factors

The minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve from January 31 to February 1 said that most officials supported the interest rate increase by 25 basis points, because the slower pace “will enable them to better evaluate the progress of the economy in reducing the inflation rate to 2%.” However, a “small number” of participants at the meeting directly supported the interest rate increase by 50 basis points, or said that “they may support” the interest rate increase by 50 basis points at that time. The US PCE data in January outperformed expectations, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve for higher terminal interest rates to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and non-ferrous commodities were under pressure as a whole. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase the tightening force has made the aluminum price downward under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

On the supply side, the recent production reduction of boots in Yunnan has been implemented, and the production reduction capacity is slightly higher than expected, and the positive expectation in the early stage is gradually digested. From the inventory data, the downstream consumption has improved, the operating rate of processing enterprises has risen significantly, but it is less than expected, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and it is still in the trend of accumulation, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods is still out of stock. In the short term, electrolytic aluminum will be suppressed by macro factors, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly weak, and the downstream consumption will be seen in the future.

Domestic cobalt price stopped falling and rising in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the cobalt price was 302500 yuan/ton, up 2.13% from 296200 yuan/ton on February 1. The supply of cobalt market was limited and the demand recovered. The international cobalt price stopped falling and rose, while the domestic cobalt price fell first and then rose.

International cobalt price stops falling and rises

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that in February, the MB cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, the international cobalt price stopped falling, the domestic cobalt market turned from bad to good, and the domestic cobalt price’s downward pressure weakened and the upward momentum increased.

Domestic cobalt market demand is expected to increase

In the first week of the Spring Festival in 2023, the price of nickel sulfate continued to rise, the price of battery grade nickel sulfate was inversely higher than that of cobalt sulfate, the cost performance ratio of high nickel and low cobalt ternary batteries was weakened, the need for cobalt removal of ternary batteries became weaker, high nickel and low cobalt became the chicken ribs, and the demand of cobalt market was expected to increase; The demand for cobalt in traditional alloys, magnetic materials and other markets recovered slowly.

Sales of new energy vehicles declined in January

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association on the 10th, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis and 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis. According to the data released by the Passenger Transport Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 389000 in January, down 7.3% year-on-year and 48.2% month-on-month. In January, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 332000, down 6.3% year-on-year and 48.3% month-on-month. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both declined on a month-on-month basis, the demand for cobalt market declined, and the pressure on cobalt price decline increased.

South Africa’s transportation is blocked and supply of cobalt is limited

In February, seven provinces in South Africa were hit by rainstorm and triggered floods. The floods in South Africa affected transportation. Since February, the power crisis in South Africa has intensified, and large-scale power outages have occurred in South Africa. In the short term, the supply of cobalt market is limited, while the demand of domestic cobalt market has warmed up, and the risk of shortage of cobalt market has increased.

Local new energy vehicle policies

Eight departments, including the First Equipment Industry Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the Notice on Organizing the Pilot Work of Comprehensive Electrification of Vehicles in the Public Sector to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry; Nanjing continues to implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles; Hunan pointed out in the “20 items of stable growth” that the policy of replacing new energy vehicles with capital subsidies should be continued to drive the production and consumption of new energy vehicles; The People’s Government of Guangdong Province is now printing and distributing the Implementation Plan of Guangdong Province’s Carbon Peak, which proposes to vigorously develop the new energy automobile industry; Sichuan Province should implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax on new energy vehicles and carry out a series of consumption promotion activities such as new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business News, believes that the international cobalt price has stopped rising, which is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, which is bad for the domestic cobalt market; High nickel and low cobalt have become chicken ribs. The comparison of battery cobalt removal has weakened, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise. There is a large price difference between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt salt. The profit of electrolytic cobalt enterprises is better than that of cobalt salt enterprises, and the production scheduling of electrolytic cobalt production enterprises is increased; Limited transportation in South Africa affects the supply of cobalt market, which is expected to decrease. In the future, the expected growth of demand and supply in the cobalt market is limited, and it is expected that the cobalt market in the future will recover slightly.

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of mainstream domestic urea market fell first and then rose this month: the price of urea first fell from 2785.00 yuan/ton on February 1 to 2722.00 yuan/ton on February 15, a decrease of 2.26%, and then rose to 2817.00 yuan/ton on February 27, an increase of 3.49%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 5.43%.

The urea commodity index on February 26 was 130.19, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.53% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 134.15% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

In February, the price of urea fell first and then rose, with a weekly maximum increase of 1.08%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic mainstream market price of urea rose and fell each other this month.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream products in this month appeared to rise and fall: the price of liquefied natural gas fell first and then rose. The price first fell from 6090.00 yuan/ton on February 1 to 5724.00 yuan/ton on February 10, down 6.01%, and then rose to 6082.00 yuan/ton on February 27, up 6.25%, down 20.52% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing fast) fell slightly, from 1880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1480 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 400 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated, rising from 4233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 4.88%, down 1.41% year on year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8325.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.11%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased, and industrial demand was better. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Urea rose slightly in the future.

Urea rose slightly in the future

In the first ten days of March, the urea market may fluctuate slightly. Upstream anthracite and natural gas prices rose and fell, and cost support was average. Downstream agricultural demand increased and industrial demand was normal. The daily output of urea is about 150000 to 160000 tons, and the supply is normal. Urea may rise slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average price of the domestic rubber-grade premium white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton as of February 24. The white carbon black market operated smoothly this week. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, and the price fluctuation was limited.

This week, the white carbon black market is mainly stable, and the price remains stable. The mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton. The downstream purchase is based on demand, and the negotiation focus is stable. The contract customers are the main part, and the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical index: On February 23, the chemical index was 917 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 34.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 53.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The white carbon black analyst of the Business Society believes that the white carbon black market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the price will maintain about 6000 yuan/ton.

Recently, under the gradually intensified macroeconomic pressure of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase expectation, the oil price has fallen repeatedly. As of this Wednesday, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, WTI crude oil has achieved “six consecutive falls”, falling from the range of $80 to around $74, a drop of nearly 8%.

On Wednesday, crude oil futures fell again, falling more than 3% in a single day. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 73.95 US dollars/barrel, down by 2.41 US dollars or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.60/barrel, down US $2.45 or 3.2%.

The core logic of the recent decline in oil prices is still focused on the high inflation level in the United States. The strong economic data and the month-on-month higher inflation data in January make the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes show that the probability of further interest rate increases. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and May of this year, and the probability of continuing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June is more than 50%. Moreover, the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend will make the interest rate reduction at the end of the year disappear. This has put pressure on the price of risky assets such as crude oil.

In addition, the favorable performance of the market on geographical factors weakened. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has lasted for a year, and the market is waiting for further development of the situation. The negotiation or escalation of the conflict remains to be further observed. Under this node, bulls tend to avoid risks. At present, the decline of Russian oil supply is not as expected. Even though the West has repeatedly imposed restrictions on Russian oil, the Russian oil export has become increasingly stable since the outbreak of the conflict, and the US oil output is close to 13 million barrels per day, as well as OPEC’s adherence to the previous policy and inaction, the supply side is generally empty in the near future.

On the demand side, both positive and negative factors exist. Western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected path of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy. In particular, the news of the release of crude oil reserves in the United States was also negative for the oil market. However, the market is generally optimistic about China’s demand growth. Prior to this, EIA, IEA and OPEC monthly reports have also raised the demand forecast for 2023, and the report is optimistic about the contribution value of China’s demand. In general, the demand side is mixed.

Future outlook: The crude oil analyst of Business News believes that the recent oil market is weak and the possibility of inertia bottoming out exists. In the medium term, the macro pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is lingering, and demand expectations are difficult to improve. The supply side needs to focus on the trend of Ukraine * Russia * conflict * sudden. If the military * business * conflict * sudden expansion, the oil market may end the bottom and have the possibility of further upsurge.

Price trend

The recent domestic PA6 market trend is weak, and the spot prices fall more or less. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14133.33 yuan/ton, up – 0.54% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 fell last week. The price of raw material pure benzene is higher than that before, and the cost support is acceptable. The operating rate of some enterprises increased, and the market spot supply increased. Downstream demand is weak, and on-demand procurement is the main part. The atmosphere of transaction on the market is weak, and the spot price of caprolactam is steadily reduced.

Supply:

In the middle of February, the load of domestic PA6 production enterprises fell to about 65% in a narrow range, and the overall operation was stable. The total output last week was about 84000 tons. The market supply is stable, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the ex-factory price is loose.

Demand: In the downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industry has increased, and the overall demand for PA6 chips by the end enterprises is moderate, but the spot competition on the market is strong, and the demand side has resistance to the high-priced supply. The market is mostly for early contract transactions, and the actual volume of single transaction has decreased.

Aftermarket forecast

The PA6 market fell in mid-February. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased steadily, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, it tends to be rigid. Caprolactam is stable and weak, and PA6 cost support is general. The market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, and the volume of real orders has shrunk. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 8566.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7400.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 13.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 57.23% year on year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on February 19 was 37.56, which was the same as yesterday, down 64.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 24.70% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7513.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 11033.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.53%. The market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late February may be mainly volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and cost support weakened. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

The price of polybutadiene rubber rose this week (2.10-217). According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11910 yuan/ton, up 3.21% from 11540 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose; Within the week, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier was increased by 300 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants was higher. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11700 yuan/ton as of February 17. As of the 17th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11750~12100 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11700~11750 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week (2.10-217), while the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9868 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 3.68% from 9518 yuan/ton on February 10.

This week (2.10-217), the natural rubber market corrected in a narrow range, and the impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was slightly empty. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 12000 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 0.08% from 11990 yuan/ton on Friday.

Recently, the construction of downstream tires has increased significantly, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strong support. It is understood that as of February 10, 2023, the starting load of all steel tires of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 61.92%, 53.31% higher than that of the same period last year. The starting load of semi-steel tire of domestic rubber tire enterprises was 68.00%, 47.51% higher than that of the same period last year.

Future forecast: The analysts of the Business News Agency believe that the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable at present, and the inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed. With the increase of tire commencement, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase in the later stage, and it is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of February 16, down 0.80% from Monday’s price.

This week’s melamine market was weak. Recently, the market price of raw material urea fell first and then rose. The cost support was general. Some units at the supply end resumed production, and the melamine market operating rate increased slightly. However, the demand follow-up was insufficient. The export market was general. The domestic downstream demand recovery was slow. The market transaction was just needed. The contradiction between supply and demand was prominent. The focus of the melamine market was weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on February 16. On February 15, the reference price of urea was 2722.00, down 2.26% from February 1 (2785.00).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of raw material urea is rising, the cost support is limited, the supply side is abundant, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side.