The domestic epoxy resin market continued to decline. After being driven higher by the cost side in the early stage, the overall epoxy resin market declined as the raw materials went down and its own demand was difficult to improve. The negotiated price in the East China market is 15300-15800 yuan/ton, and the Huangshan solid epoxy resin market is 14400-14800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 300-500 yuan/ton in the week.

From the perspective of raw materials, the bisphenol A market fell slightly last week. As of the 13th, the reference price of bisphenol A in East China was 9950-10000 yuan/ton, and the bisphenol A market in North China was discussed at 9850 yuan/ton, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton in the week. The bisphenol A plant has a high operating rate, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The key is that the downstream epoxy resin and PC market is down, and the demand for raw materials is light. Under the pressure of shippers’ shipment, the market center of gravity has gradually declined. At present, it has been at the cost line of 10000 yuan/ton, and the short-term BPA has been adjusted in a weak way, with clear news.

The raw material epichlorohydrin market fell slightly. The reference price in the East China market was 8700 yuan/ton, and fell about 300 yuan/ton in the week. The epichlorohydrin market continued to decline. The slight support on the cost side was mainly due to the sluggish downstream market, the scarcity of raw material procurement, and the current industry operating rate remained around 60%.

The rise of international oil prices has driven up the prices of phenolic ketones, propylene and other products in the upstream of the industrial chain, but has little impact on the terminal epoxy resin market. From the perspective of the epoxy resin industrial chain, it is also difficult to form support on the cost side. In the case of insufficient downstream orders, small purchase orders and sufficient market supply, the epoxy resin market may still decline slightly.

Zinc prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the zinc price was 22998 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 4.26% from 24022 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend. The demand for zinc in futures is still weak due to the large increase in inventory, and the price of zinc fell in shock this week.

LME zinc ingot inventory surged this week

Time/ London Futures Inventory/ Increase or decrease/ Proportion of change

February 6/ 16225./ -150./ -0.92%

February 7/ 15600./ -625./ -3.85%

February 8/ 19425./ 3825./ 24.52%

February 9/ 21375./ 1950./ 10.04%

February 10 26250./4875./22.81%

From the LME inventory statistics table, LME zinc ingot inventory surged this week. As of February 10, LME’s zinc inventory was 26250 tons, a sharp increase from 16225 tons of zinc ingot inventory on February 6. London’s zinc inventory increased, and the London zinc price fell sharply on Friday. With the end of the winter heating peak in Europe, the operating rate of zinc smelting in Europe is expected to rise, and the supply of international zinc market is expected to increase; The supply of zinc is sufficient and the downward pressure is high.

Supply and demand situation of domestic zinc market

According to the results of incomplete output statistics, the output of zinc and zinc alloy of sample enterprises in January 2023 was 460000 tons, an increase of 1.3% on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 4000 tons on a month-on-month basis, and an increase of 0.6% on a month-on-month basis. The output of domestic zinc market increased, and the supply of zinc market was sufficient. After the Spring Festival, Henan Zinc Plant was put into operation, the supply of zinc market increased, and the social zinc inventory accumulated. Many places in China introduced economic stimulus policies, and the downstream demand recovered, but the demand is still weak at this stage. The supply and demand of zinc market is weak, and the downward pressure of zinc market is high.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analyst of the Business News Agency, in terms of supply, LME zinc inventory increased significantly this week, the supply of zinc in Europe increased, and the supply of domestic zinc market was stable; In terms of demand, the downstream demand has warmed up, but it is less than expected, and the overall zinc market demand is still weak. In the future, the supply and demand of zinc in the market will be weak in the short term, and the pressure on the price of zinc will increase. It is expected that the price of zinc will fall in shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared with the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.74% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month, and decreased by 10.37% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of February 10, the domestic price of chloroform continued to rise, rising by 3.16% in the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, falling by 1.71% in the month. In general, the cost price of refrigerant R22 showed a rising trend, supported by cost, and the prices quoted by some enterprises rose slightly in February.

As of February 10, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly by 1.71% in February, the price of trichloroethylene remained low, and the cost of raw materials showed a downward trend as a whole. Supported by the relatively low inventory of enterprises after the year, the price of refrigerant R134a remained stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline in February, and the continued decline of raw material cost will further depress the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that in the short term, supported by the recovery of raw material costs, the market price of R22 will continue to be stable and strong; The cost of upstream raw materials is on the decline as a whole, and the price of R134a may fall slightly under the pressure of cost.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 3, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price increased by 166 yuan/ton, or 2.11%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first week of the return of the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 (1.29-2.03), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole rose and then remained stable. After returning from the beginning of the week, the downstream demand of propylene glycol market was moderate, and the on-site supply of propylene glycol was tight. After the festival, the market price ushered in a small and steady rise, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the propylene glycol market stabilized and consolidated. As of February 5, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, there is a certain wait-and-see mood in the downstream of the propylene glycol market, and the market is waiting for the downstream demand to continue to release. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that it is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly run with a small rise in February, and more attention should be paid to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 174.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 154.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 11.49%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 47.97% year on year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 5 was 40.53, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.61% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 125.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 2020.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1968.75 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.54%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 21.49% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1132.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1187.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.86%. On the whole, upstream support is insufficient, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The recent low level of the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated, and the cost support is general. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 500000.00 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 5.66% from February 1.

The domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market fell this week (2.1-2.6). Recently, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been reduced, which has insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. The first-tier manufacturers at the supply end mainly export, while the overseas prices have fallen. The second-tier manufacturers mainly supply domestic demand, while the domestic demand is weak. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and the enterprise quotation has been reduced.

For upstream lithium carbonate, on February 3, the reference price of lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 461600.00, down 0.86% from February 1 (465600.00).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current weak shock of upstream lithium carbonate aggravates the wait-and-see atmosphere of the market, and the market inquiries increase, but the demand is still weak. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market has turned from weak to strong last month, the drawing brand has been shaken and warmed up, and the fiber products have also warmed up to varying degrees. As of February 1, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7966.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+1.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In the upstream, the propylene market rose steadily in January. From the beginning of the month, the propylene market gradually entered the stage of preparation before the festival. There was a wave of procurement peaks in the downstream, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream goods went smoothly, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. During the Spring Festival, the market maintained a stable trend, the market demand followed up slowly after the festival, and the quotations of individual enterprises fell.

The price of propylene rose steadily and was slightly stronger. Last month, the support of PP cost side was acceptable. In terms of industry load, PP polymerization enterprises’ maintenance downtime increased before the holiday, and the industry load fell back to about 80%. The supply of goods on the site is relatively sufficient, the inventory position has decreased, and the supply pressure has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises is average. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as good as expected. After the holiday, they purchase according to demand, and the spot price fluctuates and recovers.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 1, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8016.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of January, it has increased by – 1.43% and decreased by – 4.56% year-on-year. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, increased, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the middle of the month. The digestion speed of non-woven end products decreased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP weakened due to the holiday. After the resumption of work after the holiday, the spot price recovery is less than that of the drawing material, and it is expected that it will still maintain the operation of shock consolidation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market fell from a high point last month. As of February 1, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10000 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of January, the increase and decrease rate was -10.18%, with a year-on-year increase of+5.45%. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more beneficial, and the recent demand has declined and stabilized. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market was first depressed and then rose last month. The market of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost support is acceptable. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to maintain production just in need, the intra-field trading is general, and the buyers operate cautiously. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black price was 11950 yuan/ton on January 30, and the domestic carbon black market price was slightly down this month.

Cost side: the price of high temperature coal tar as a raw material fell this month and remained stable in the near future. The cost-side support of carbon black enterprises has weakened. At present, the operating rate of coke enterprises is stable, and the downstream deep-processing enterprises are stable as a whole, mainly purchasing on demand. The inventory in the coal tar yard has decreased.

Supply and demand: after the Spring Festival, some enterprises that have stopped production for maintenance have resumed production. Under the pressure of high inventory, the overall construction is not high.

Downstream tire enterprises have started construction in succession, mainly consuming inventory in the short term.

In general, the price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material is temporarily stable. With the decline of on-site inventory, the coal tar market has a certain sense of rising sentiment, which supports the price of carbon black. At present, there is no obvious benefit for downstream tire enterprises. It is expected that the carbon black market price will run smoothly in the short term. In the later stage, it is also necessary to pay attention to the raw materials and downstream market dynamics.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2732.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2745.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.48%, up 3.04% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 15 was 127.67, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 129.62% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support increased, downstream demand weakened, and urea supply was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6232.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.20%, up 34.21% year on year; The price of anthracite rose slightly, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) rising by 50 yuan/ton to 1920 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4190.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 9.04%, down 6.05% year on year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, this week Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5925.00 yuan/ton, and this week Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5912.50 yuan/ton, down 0.21%, and the current price rose 0.78% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell this week. From the figure above, we can see that the recent potassium nitrate market fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market volatility fell. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal. At present, the supply of goods is mostly concentrated in the hands of large traders. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream maintains the purchase of just needed products, and the market sentiment is poor, and the potassium nitrate market is weak. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), which varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the price of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers is 3850.00 yuan/ton. The sales price of domestic potassium 60% crystal is mostly 3550-3600 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton at the low end). The price of 57% powder in Qinghai small factories is 3200-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 62% white potassium in Russia is mostly 3480-3500 yuan/ton in border trade areas (up 30 yuan/ton at the low end), the price of 62% white potassium in ports is mostly 3680-3750 yuan/ton, the price of large particles is mostly 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market has consolidated. The Spring Festival is approaching, and downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.