The price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2950 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 13.22%. The recent market demand for fluorite has not changed much, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

Supply side: Some fluorite enterprises gradually start up

Recently, the operating rate at the domestic supply side has gradually increased, and recently, enterprises have gradually started construction. The supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. However, raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. Overall, the supply of fluorite enterprises has increased, coupled with the general situation of fluorite shipments, and the price trend of fluorite on the market has temporarily stabilized.

Demand side: Low starting point of hydrofluoric acid market refrigerant

The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has remained low, with the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price of 9714.29yuan/ton as of the 17th. This week, the price trend has temporarily stabilized. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been weak and stable, with some hydrofluoric acid plants shutting down, and the enthusiasm for upstream fluorite procurement has decreased. In addition, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have suffered losses, resulting in temporarily weak purchasing sentiment. The low price of hydrofluoric acid in the market has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price remains low due to this impact.

The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal rose slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the factory price, leading to a slight recovery in the domestic refrigerant R22 price. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, inventory is within a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a has increased slightly. However, currently, demand based procurement is the main trend. Downstream enterprises are not starting high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. Due to the impact of light refrigerant delivery, the market for downstream R134a has slightly increased. Recently, procurement in the downstream refrigerant industry is not active, with a operating rate of less than 30%. For upstream raw materials, procurement is mainly based on demand, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite is an important mineral raw material in modern industry, and the demand in emerging fields is developing. Fluorite is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, and so on. With the demand in new energy and semiconductor fields pulling, the fluorite market still has some support in the long run.

Future Forecast: In the short term, the demand for fluorite will not change much, and downstream hydrofluoric acid companies will mainly purchase on demand. In addition, the start of the refrigerant industry will remain sluggish. However, the recent supply of fluorite ore is very tight, and the production cost of fluorite is supported. It is expected that the market price of fluorite will remain stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of the Business News Agency, as of March 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to last Thursday (March 16).

The recent market situation of melamine is weak. Recently, the raw material urea market has undergone a narrow consolidation, with little impact on cost. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has increased, but there is insufficient follow-up on demand. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent, and manufacturers’ sales are under pressure. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market has declined.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market temporarily stabilized on March 21. On March 20, the reference price of urea was 2811.25, a decrease of 0.64% compared to March 1 (2829.38).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the current high price of raw material urea and cost support still exist, but the supply and demand side is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate in a weak manner, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased slightly this week. Overall, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province this week increased from 9271.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9307.14 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.39%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 26.91%. On March 19th, the isooctanol commodity index stood at 68.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.15% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 94.99% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support and better downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturers’ quotations, the market quotations of mainstream Shandong isooctanol manufacturers increased slightly this week.

Judging from the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market declined slightly this week, with the price falling from 7464.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7300.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.20%. A year-on-year decrease of 11.69% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials in the market fell slightly, resulting in insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP increased slightly this week. The price of DOP increased by 0.50% from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10010 yuan/ton at the end of the week. A year-on-year decrease of 18.95% compared to the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were more proactive in purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, while downstream demand was average. According to isooctanol analysts from the Business Agency, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may suffer from minor fluctuations and declines due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors.

Price trend

The recent domestic PA6 market trend is weak, with spot prices falling. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13900 yuan/ton, a decrease of – 1.65% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of caprolactam is stable this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, and cost support weakened. In addition, the market supply has increased due to the increased load of caprolactam units. Downstream, procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the key. It is expected that caprolactam may weaken in the short term, weakening its support for PA6.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was around 72%, with an overall narrow increase. The market supply is stable, the inventory position is rising, the supplier’s support for spot goods is moderate, and the factory price is reduced.

Demand: On the downstream side, the overall load of the weaving and spinning industries has increased in a narrow range, but the consumption of raw materials is poor, replenishment demand is weak, on-site trading is weak, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is poor.

Aftermarket Forecast

The PA6 market fell this week. The load of domestic polymerization plants has steadily increased, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. The demand side tends to be rigid. Caprolactam weakened, and PA6 cost side support was moderate. Market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, with actual single trading volume shrinking. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the market price of butadiene declined in a ladder. From March 6 to 10, the domestic market price of butadiene fell from 9450 yuan/ton to 9166 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.00% during the cycle, a price decline of 3.70% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 1.29%. The supply side has increased, and it is difficult for downstream rigid demand to provide effective support, and the market continues to decline. The butadiene market gradually weakened.

In terms of cost and crude oil: the international oil price fell, and the main negative factors were: the market worried that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates or turn to more aggressive strategies, which would put pressure on the economy and demand. In terms of naphtha, the profit of downstream ethylene cracking unit improved slightly, but the news of demand improvement has not been released. Gasoline shocks have been sorted out, and the naphtha market continues to run at a high level.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec’s sales companies has been reduced by 600 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton. The 30000t/a butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical Plant is in stable operation, and 200 tons of goods are sold at competitive price for export. The transaction price is 8680 yuan/ton. Butadiene supply side was negative.

On the demand side, the raw material butadiene market fell, and the synthetic rubber market fell, but there was no obvious positive boost on the demand side. The demand for butadiene is weak.

In terms of external market: the closing price of butadiene in Asia was stable on March 9: the FOB price in South Korea was 1175-1185 US dollars/ton,; China CFR News 1195-1205 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 845-855 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 875-885 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea/ 1175-1185 US dollars/ton/ 0 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/1195-1205 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ 845-855 dollars/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 875-885 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the short-term supply increment is less than expected due to the continued impact of device restart. Downstream product prices fell, and profits remained under pressure. Butadiene analysts of the Business Agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of the Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton as of March 14, down 1.22% from the price of last Friday (March 10).

The melamine market has declined recently. Recently, the market of raw material urea has declined slightly, but the cost side is still supported. Some devices in the supply side fluctuate, and the manufacturers execute the early orders in an orderly manner. However, the follow-up of new orders in the market is insufficient, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the market mentality is under pressure, and the focus of melamine market negotiation is weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on March 14. On March 13, the reference price of urea was 2822.50, down 0.24% from March 1 (2829.38).

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that the current cost support is general, the supply and demand support is weak, and the operators are not in a good mood. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

From March 3 to March 10, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene increased by a narrow margin, from 5878 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5925 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 0.8%.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, which would add to the sharp increase in the United States refined oil storage. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained. International crude oil futures rose on March 10. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.68 US dollars/barrel, up 0.96 US dollars or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.78 US dollars/barrel, up 1.19 US dollars or 1.5%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on March 8, 2023, and the current price is 7200 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7400 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7203 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7350 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, the price of pure benzene has mainly declined from October to December, warmed in January, and increased slightly for five consecutive weeks after February.

In terms of industrial chain: the market price of pure benzene continued to maintain a slight upward trend this week. The crude oil trend of this week rose in the first half of the week and declined in the second half of the week. However, the downstream styrene market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the pure benzene market. The pure benzene market rose slightly this week. However, the downstream side has been more wait-and-see recently, and the overall purchase intention is low. The trend of hydrogenation benzene market basically follows that of pure benzene, with a slight increase this week as the main trend, which also boosts the downstream crude benzene market.

The crude benzene market continued to adjust slightly this week, with the overall price rising slightly. The main production area in Shandong Province is 6060 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 80 yuan/ton compared with last week. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises this week remained high, and crude benzene supply was slightly loose. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market is still in operation, and the demand for crude benzene still exists. The price rise this week is mainly due to the impact of the overall high volatility of the industrial chain, and the downstream demand is still good, driving the market price to rise steadily. However, the trend of crude oil in the current cycle is slightly low, and the price has continued to decline, which has dragged down the mentality of some markets. Due to the large volatility of crude oil in the recent period, the market guidance is insufficient. In a comprehensive view, the business community expects that the crude benzene market price will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range. The future market will focus on the impact of the trend of basic products such as crude oil and styrene on the market mentality.

The price of acetic anhydride stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the price of acetic anhydride was 5300 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from 5287.50 yuan/ton on March 3; The price of acetic anhydride rose by 0.71% from 5262.50 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw materials stabilized, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of acetic anhydride stabilized after rising this week.

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and stabilized this week

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of March 10, the price of acetic acid was 3283.33 yuan/ton, up 4.23% from the price of acetic anhydride of 3150 yuan/ton on March 1; The price of acetic acid was stable compared with 3283.33 yuan/ton on March 3. This week, the price of acetic acid stopped rising and stabilized, the cost of acetic anhydride was not supported, and the rising power of acetic anhydride was weakened.

Methanol prices fell in shock this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of March 10, the methanol price was 2637.50 yuan/ton, down 3.59% from the price of 2735.83 yuan/ton on March 1; Compared with the methanol price of 2693.33 yuan/ton on March 3, it fell by 2.07%. This week, the price of methanol fell sharply, the cost of acetic acid fell, the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Future prospects

Analysts of the acetic anhydride data of the Business Agency believe that the price of acetic acid has stopped rising and stabilized this week, the price of methanol has fallen, and the cost of acetic anhydride has fallen. In the future, the rise of acetic anhydride cost is not supported, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market fell in February. From February 1 to 28, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9600 yuan/ton to 9450 yuan/ton, down 1.56%, and the price fell 13.83% year on year.

The main factors affecting the price decline of cyclohexanone this month are as follows: the raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost supports the market of cyclohexanone; The downstream caprolactam market is in weak operation, and it is mainly purchased on demand. The plant operating rate of the production enterprise is maintained at about 60%, and the supply is relatively stable. Downstream demand is recovering in succession, and most of the procurement is based on orders for immediate demand, which is difficult to change significantly in a short time. It can be seen that the main factor restricting the market of cyclohexanone this month is the downstream demand.

On the cost side, the base price of pure benzene of the business community was 7125.50 yuan/ton on January 31, up 9.08% from January 1 (6532.17 yuan/ton). The cost of cyclohexanone is obviously positive.

In terms of supply, the market is relatively abundant at present. The main production enterprises are overhauling or stopping production. Some production enterprises mainly supply caprolactam, and cyclohexanone is not exported for the time being. The supply side of cyclohexanone in the short term is difficult to have positive factors.

On the demand side, the market price of caprolactam, the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, fluctuated slightly. The spot supply in the market is reduced, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and deals are made at low prices. The market of caprolactam is mainly shaken, sorted and operated. The demand side of cyclohexanone also has no positive support.

According to the future forecast, the market price of pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the rising power is insufficient. The supply of cyclohexanone industry is stable, the load of caprolactam in Lunan is increased, and the demand for cyclohexanone is increased. Other chemical fibers are expected to just follow up. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business agency predicted that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market would be dominated by consolidation.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. It was 15.04% lower than the same period last year. The carbide commodity index on March 5 was 91.27, which was the same as yesterday, down 56.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 64.48% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was low, and the price of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1300-1500 yuan/ton, and the cost support was insufficient. The market price of PVC fell from 6313.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6251.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.98%. The year-on-year decline was 28.39%. The PVC market price fell slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In the middle and early days of March, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal is low, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream PVC market is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is weakened. In the middle and early March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range, mainly through consolidation.