According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market rose slightly this week (from April 14 to April 21), and the market atmosphere was still weak. The spot market price in East China was 16300 yuan/ton last weekend and 16325 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.15%.

Manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market continued to be depressed. Enquiries and transactions on the market improved slightly, but most of them were sporadic transactions. The transaction price did not perform well, and the price continued to decline. The lower price of the downstream silicon manganese market led to the pressure operation of the raw material end market. The manufacturers’ weak acceptance of high prices led to the gradual bottoming of the transaction price. As of April 21, Tianjin Port has experienced a decrease of 0.5 to 1 yuan/ton, with mainstream transactions of semi carbonate at 32.5 yuan/ton, around 38 yuan/ton in Gabon, 42 to 43 yuan/ton in Australia, and a certain degree of decline in South African high-speed rail. The mainstream prices of Mn28-30 grade are concentrated at 31 yuan/ton, while those of Mn33 and above are at 32.5 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have slightly decreased since December 2022, and have continued to decline after temporarily stabilizing in January. As of now, electrolytic manganese has been declining for four consecutive months, and has slightly rebounded this week.

The actual transaction volume in the electrolytic manganese market this week is still weak, and the overall market is still operating in a weak trend. Prices in some regions have slightly increased, but the mainstream market remains at 14700-14900 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week. This week, the market is bullish, with some prices slightly increasing, but the impact on the market is limited. Downstream demand is generally low, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. This week, the performance of steel bidding was relatively stable, and with the resumption of bidding by POSCO in South Korea, it has boosted the mentality of the domestic market to some extent. Recently, there has been a slight upward trend in prices among smelters, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has gradually decreased. However, actual transactions are still limited, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in trading. The market is relatively quiet, with FOB prices ranging from $2100 to $2140 per ton, which is unchanged from last week. In the future, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be the main focus, and more guidance on steel bidding prices will be awaited.

This week, the silicon manganese market experienced a narrow range of volatility, with lower prices at the beginning of the week and a recovery with futures rebounding in the middle of the week. Spot prices showed a slight increase, but the upward momentum was insufficient. Over the weekend, prices fell back. The bidding for steel mills is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere is gradually turning to a light one. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (with the specification of FeMN68Si18) was around 6900-7050 yuan/ton on April 21, with an average market price of 6975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the beginning of the week.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in March 2023 was approximately 33451 tons. In March 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 5500 tons.

The National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting to promote clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in order to improve the level of green and clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry, the Environmental Resources Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting on promoting clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry on the afternoon of April 21, to sort out the current situation and existing problems of clean production in the electrolytic manganese industry, and to study and promote the next steps of work. Representatives from the Solid State Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, relevant research institutions, and industry associations attended the meeting.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8600.00 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36%. The price has decreased by 11.17% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has continued to decline. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the price has continued to decline this week. The supply of styrene has continued to rise, inventory has risen, international crude oil prices are fluctuating and unstable, pure benzene market is not volatile, cost support is poor, and spot demand for styrene is poor, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On April 10th, the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7600 yuan/ton (average price of 7501 yuan/ton). On Friday (April 14th), the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7750 yuan/ton (average price of 7576 yuan/ton), an increase of 0.67% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.59% compared to the same period last year. The port continues to go to the warehouse, and downstream demand for raw materials is relatively stable, supporting price increases. The inventory of Shandong Refinery is low, and the quoted price is high, causing the focus of transaction to shift upwards.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen varying fluctuations. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9516 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.53% and a decrease of 9.89% compared to the same period last year. Market inquiries have increased, but actual transactions are average. The market urgently needs good news support, with a focus on downstream transactions. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8850 and 10400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9250 and 10700 yuan/ton.

The average price of EPS ordinary materials this week is 9640 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The supply of goods in the yard is still relatively loose, and the downstream production consumption inventory is dominated. The market price reference of EPS common materials in South China is about 9600-9700 yuan/ton (tax included).

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable, with an average price of 11600.00 yuan/ton on April 17th. Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, which has weakened the support for ABS cost side. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. Stacked with high inventory of midstream channel merchants, merchants’ mentality has weakened, and pricing operations are cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

The recent crude oil market has room for volatility and upward momentum, with good support for styrene. The supply of styrene has slowed down, and it is expected that the short-term volatility and upward trend in the styrene market will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the average price for acrylic acid in the East China region was 6775.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The acrylic acid market has been operating steadily this week. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overhaul of some factories at the supply end has been completed, the industry operation rate has increased, the downstream procurement is mainly just in demand, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the support for the Shandong propylene market has become stronger recently, and the price has continued to rise slightly. On the 14th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong market was 7200-7300 yuan/ton.

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support has increased, operating rates have increased, market transactions are on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to bulk data monitoring by Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in March. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8558.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8458.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%. The price has decreased by 9.54% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

In March, the styrene market price fell first and then rose. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has increased and decreased in the past month. The reason for the decline in the middle of the first half of the year was due to the decline in crude oil prices, poor cost support, the gradual restart of styrene maintenance equipment, abundant inventory supply at styrene loading ports, and the main decline in the styrene market. The main reason for the increase in late October is the continued rise in international oil prices, strong cost support, a decrease in styrene port inventory, and acceptable spot transactions. In summary, the styrene market in March was mainly affected by slight fluctuations in costs and inventory.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fluctuated and increased in March, with little price fluctuation. On March 1st, the price was between 7000-7200 yuan/ton (average price 7100 yuan/ton); On March 31st, the price was between 7200 to 7300 yuan/ton (average price 7235 yuan/ton). In March, the market price of pure benzene rose in a narrow range, and there were few spot transactions, mainly in the month. The stable prices of the main units have boosted the market, but there is insufficient room for price decline. Some downstream and traders in Shandong are bullish in the future, and they are buying Shandong’s goods normally, with a fair transaction.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in March. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of PS brand 525 at the beginning of March was 9433 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS brand 525 was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% and a decrease of 12.75% compared to the same period last year. On the supply side, the overall supply of domestic PS is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of petrochemical plants is expected to be high. The pressure on the PS supply side still exists. Demand side: Due to limited downstream demand improvement, the supply and demand side gradually tends to be loose, and the overall market inquiry atmosphere is average, while the trading atmosphere on the market is flat.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials did not change much in March. The average quotation for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 9562 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 9550 yuan/ton. At present, the digestion of market supply is slow, and the pressure on merchants to ship is not decreasing, with price reduction sales being the main focus. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the EPS market remains unchanged, and overall transaction performance is poor. It is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly follow a narrow range consolidation trend.

In March, the domestic ABS market weakened and spot prices fluctuated and fell. Recently, the overall trend of the upstream three materials of ABS has been weak, with average support for the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. The demand side support is poor, the mentality of merchants is weak, and the operation tends to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

Recently, there is room for a decrease in styrene port inventory and an increase in downstream operating rates. However, the high inventory of downstream finished products has limited support for styrene, and the styrene market is likely to be greatly affected by crude oil. Therefore, the business community expects a slight increase in the styrene market in the short term.

In March, the dichloromethane market rose and fell back, showing an overall downward trend. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2572 yuan/ton, down 3.47% from 2665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly high of 2845 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has dropped significantly, while the cost of dichloromethane has declined significantly; At the beginning of the month, the pressure on the supply side of the dichloromethane market was relatively low, coupled with the rising price of downstream refrigerant R32 during the peak season, which timely replenished the inventory of dichloromethane, driving up the price of dichloromethane; In the second half of the month, with the early shutdown, the restart of the load reduction device, or the lifting of the load to normal operation, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane increased. In addition, the centralized replenishment of the downstream warehouse has come to an end, and in the later stage, there are many scattered transactions, resulting in a high price drop of dichloromethane.

In March, the start of dichloromethane production was relatively low at the beginning of the month and increased in the later period, resulting in a gradual increase in supply side pressure.

In March, the price of raw material methanol fell sharply, while the cost of dichloromethane fell sharply. According to the business news agency, as of March 31, the spot price of methanol was 2561 yuan/ton, down 6.37% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The market price of refrigerant R32 is strong during the traditional peak season. After the centralized replenishment of dichloromethane at the end of February and the beginning of March, the purchase of dichloromethane has decreased compared to the previous period, with small market transactions and weak support for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business News Agency, the cost of dichloromethane is declining, coupled with greater pressure on the supply side, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in a weak manner in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic urea market price fluctuated and fell in March: the urea price fell from 2829.38 yuan/ton on March 1 to 2783.75 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 1.61%. At the end of the month, prices fell 6.59% year-on-year.

The urea commodity index on March 29 was 129.65, down 0.52 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and up 133.18% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the perspective of supply side, the price of mainstream domestic urea market rose first and then fell in March

Cost side: Large decline in LNG

In March, the price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly, from 6036.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 54344.00 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 28.03%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 40.35% compared to the same period last year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) rose slightly, rising from 1480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia dropped significantly, from 4390.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.88%. At the end of the month, prices fell 19.25% year-on-year. Overall, urea upstream products fell sharply, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: melamine price drops slightly

From the demand side, agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, plate, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. In March, the price of melamine decreased slightly, from 8275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.63%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market in the first ten days of mid April may be dominated by a slight fluctuation and decline. Upstream LNG prices have fallen sharply, with insufficient cost support. The daily output of urea is about 160000 to 170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Downstream agricultural demand weakened, while industrial demand was moderate. Urea may fall slightly in the future.

According to monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose first and then fell in March. The market price of sulfuric acid rose from 253.33 yuan/ton on March 1 to 273.33 yuan/ton on March 17, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 7.89%; Later, it fell to 250.00 yuan/ton on March 29, a decrease of 8.54%. In March, the overall market price of sulfuric acid fell by 1.31%. The price at the end of the month decreased 77.61% year-on-year compared to the same period last year.

The sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 39.95 on March 28, unchanged from yesterday, down 78.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 26.74% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the supply side, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated with each other this month, and the inventory of manufacturers is low.

Cost side: sulfur market rises first and then falls

In March, the factory price of sulfur rose first and then fell. The price of sulfur rose from 1126.67 yuan/ton on March 1 to 1223.33 yuan/ton on March 8, an increase of 8.58%; Sulfur prices fluctuated in a narrow range in mid March. The sulfur price at the end of March fell 9.81% compared to the middle of the month. In March, the overall price of sulfur decreased by 2.07%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 67.26% compared to the same period last year. The trend of sulfur market is basically consistent with that of sulfuric acid market, and the sulfuric acid market in March was greatly affected by sulfur market. Insufficient cost support at the end of the month has a negative impact on sulfuric acid prices.

Demand side: titanium dioxide market rises slightly

In March, the hydrofluoric acid market fell first and then rose, with a slight fluctuation. The market of hydrofluoric acid in early March continued its downward trend at the end of February, with the factory price dropping from 9828.57 yuan/ton on March 1 to 9714.29 yuan/ton on March 2, a decrease of 1.16%. Then operate at low position. Towards the end of the month, the price of hydrofluoric acid only slightly increased to 9800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88%. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 0.29% in March. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.07% compared to the same period last year. In March, the titanium dioxide market rose slightly, with the price of titanium dioxide rising from 16683.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 17116.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.60%. Compared with the same period last year, the price at the end of the month decreased by 18.88% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market of sulfuric acid has risen slightly, and downstream manufacturers are more enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future market: In the first ten days of mid April, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream sulfur prices fell slightly at the end of the month, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide market prices rose slightly, while ammonium sulfate market prices fell slightly. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid was moderate, and product trends declined due to supply and demand conflicts. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the Business Society, the short-term sulfuric acid market may suffer from a small fluctuation and decline under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main factor.

Overview of 441 # silicon price trend

This week, metal silicon continued to explore under pressure, and the decline at the end of the week slowed down. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 27, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 16890 yuan/ton, down 1.97% on a weekly basis. Transaction in the spot market is still light, with some businesses selling at low prices, but it is difficult to improve the weak situation. The futures market narrowed its decline this week, falling 1.40% to close at 15895 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 27th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 16800-17000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 16700-17000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 16500-16700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16600 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 16700-16800 yuan/ton, averaging 16750 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 17300-17400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17350 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price of Metallic Silicon

On the supply side:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 325. As of March 24th, it is understood that the silicon metal furnace opening rate was around 45.39%, with 157 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 25 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 39 furnaces opened in Yunnan. Southwest Silicon Plant suffered a comprehensive loss and increased shutdown and maintenance. Recently, Yunnan issued a notice on the special rectification work plan for safety production, and silicon enterprises in Yunnan have been involved.

Demand:

After rising, polysilicon stabilized, with the mainstream range reaching 20.0-2.20 million/ton, and the domestic supply price generally declined by 5000 yuan/ton. The yield of downstream silicon wafers is low. In order to ensure the order demand for silicon wafers, the silicon wafer operating rate has increased, and the demand for silicon materials has increased. Overall, the silicon material market will maintain a high level of consolidation in the near future, and there is still momentum in the medium and long term.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan/ton, with the mainstream quotation of 18500 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy industry has started construction temporarily steadily, but the weak status quo has not improved.

The domestic silicone DMC market price continues to decline, with a reference market price of 16140 yuan/ton. Organosilicon enterprises continue to suffer losses, and some monomer factories maintain shutdown for maintenance, resulting in a low demand for metallic silicon.

Aftermarket Forecast

In general, supply is stable and demand is sluggish, making it difficult to change the weak situation of metal silicon in a short period of time. However, some insiders believe that the current price of metal silicon is approaching the bottom, with limited space for price reduction, and cost support expected to emerge. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the hydrogen peroxide market in March continued its upward trend in February, continuing to fluctuate and rise. On March 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 806 yuan/ton. On March 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 883 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.5%.

Terminal rigid demand supports the continuous oscillation and rise of hydrogen peroxide market in March

Since March, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the terminal paper printing industry has increased, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable. The transaction in the hydrogen peroxide market has improved. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

Beginning in the middle of the month, the supply was loose, and the overall weakness of the hydrogen peroxide market was dominated by consolidation. On the 22nd, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers again raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the market rebounded. The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The market of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region remains stable, with an offer of 850 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise, and in Shandong, it had risen to 900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the middle of the month. The quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province is 900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. Terminal demand is improving, and the market for hydrogen peroxide continues to rise.

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst from the Business Agency, the operating rate of the terminal industry increased in April, and the hydrogen peroxide market is still expected to rise in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been stable and weak, with each spot price decreasing in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 24th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13875 yuan/ton, a decrease of – 1.83% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of caprolactam stabilized after falling this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded, and cost support turned stronger. In addition, the load of the caprolactam industry has decreased, and the market supply pressure has eased. Downstream, procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the key. It is expected that caprolactam will slowly recover in the short term, but the current support for PA6 is moderate.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was above 72%, with an overall narrow increase. The market supply is stable, the inventory position is on the high side, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the factory price is loose in a narrow range.

Demand: On the downstream side, the overall load of the weaving and spinning industries has increased in a narrow range, but the consumption of raw materials is poor, the demand for replenishment is weak, and on-site trading is weak. The overall demand for PA6 chips is moderate.

Aftermarket Forecast

This week, the PA6 market stabilized after falling. The load of domestic polymerization plants has steadily increased, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, there has been a narrow increase compared to last week, but it is still biased towards just demand. Caprolactam is running in a compact manner, and PA6 cost side support is average. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment remains unchanged, but the cost side and downstream demand support are gradually emerging, and it is expected that the PA6 market may turn warmer in the short term.