According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and rising. From July 1st to 27th, the price of MTBE increased from 7087 yuan/ton to 7562 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.70% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 7.23% and a year-on-year increase of 1.92%.

At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market was supported, and traders actively increased their prices. Production enterprises repeatedly raised their factory quotes, with a total increase of 300-500 yuan/ton. However, the downstream acceptance capacity was average, and the MTBE market price immediately declined.

In mid month, the international crude oil market supported, and most manufacturers had a large supply of early orders. Therefore, the supply of goods was temporarily tight, and the MTBE market price immediately rose.

In the latter half of the month, Lihua Yiji Port was completed and turned into domestic sales, increasing domestic supply pressure. At the same time, the trend of the gasoline market was average, with poor terminal demand and a slight decrease in prices. After falling to a certain low point, there were a large number of transactions in the gasoline shipping list, combined with the increase in crude oil closing, terminal demand increased, and the MTBE market stopped falling and went up.

Trend Chart of MTBE Domestic Production Price Average of Business Society:

On the cost side, the crude oil market surged in July, and WTI crude oil reached its highest point in the past three months. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.74 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.0%. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. As of July 26th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp interest rate hike, coupled with a lower than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, resulting in profit taking in crude oil futures and pressure on prices.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, there may be room for international oil prices to decline. Under the continuous positive impact of the lack of news, the refined oil market in Shandong Province is gradually returning to the supply and demand level. The gasoline market is supported by strong demand in the summer, and downstream users purchase on demand. The market trading atmosphere is mild, and the MTBE demand side is biased towards positive factors.

On the enterprise side, the supply of MTBE is gradually increasing, with a bearish impact on the supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.59/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $955.99-957.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $19/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1224.99- $1225.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $19.42 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1073.16-1073.51 per ton (302.30-302.40 cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, there will be an increase in supply, but the downstream gasoline market is bullish. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has slightly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 179.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 183.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.23%. Weekend prices fell 6.65% year-on-year. On July 24th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 48.32, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 168.74% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have increased this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market price was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 1718.75 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 20.20% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 605.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 607.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.41%. The weekend price has decreased by 58.74% year-on-year. Overall, upstream support is average, while downstream demand is good.

Future Market Forecast

In late July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market was adjusted at a low level, with general cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market was adjusted at a low level, the ammonium chloride market rose slightly, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7890.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7958.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%. The price has decreased by 21.09% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past month, and the market has continued to rise this week. The international oil price continues to rise, the pure benzene market keeps up, and the cost support is good. At present, the downstream construction has increased slightly, the spot transactions have increased, and the styrene market is more favorable, and the market continues to rise.

In terms of raw materials, the East China market is approaching delivery, and the pure benzene market is rising. Spot and recent month demand is strong, and the increase is expanding. Shandong traders’ demand for inventory and replenishment has actively pursued an upward trend, driving the focus of transactions upward. However, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials has slowed down the pace of procurement, resulting in average overall transactions. Pure benzene was sold at 7000 yuan/ton.

On the downstream side, the market price of PS (polystyrene) is slightly soft, and there is a lack of buying follow-up in the downstream, with some merchants offering slight discounts. Reference for mainstream brand prices excluding taxes: Ningbo Taihua 535N reported 8490 yuan/ton, while Shanghai SECCO 622P reported 9000 yuan/ton for goods shortage; Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 8640 yuan/ton; Hong Kong Petrochemical reported 9500 yuan/ton for 1841H and 9150 yuan/ton for SR600.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average quotation for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the week was 9350 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the weekend was 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.53% and a decrease of 17.90% compared to the same period last year. The terminal profit is meager, there is a clear resistance to high market prices, and the follow-up of buying is limited. The overall transaction is weak, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market may mainly have a narrow range of fluctuations.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded after rising, and spot prices have fluctuated in both directions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.43% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month. The overall performance of ABS upstream materials this week was average. Among them, the market for raw material acrylonitrile has declined, while the price of cost end propylene has decreased. Due to independent load reduction and unplanned shutdowns in the early stage, acrylonitrile enterprises have some positive supply side effects, but demand is weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment among operators has intensified. The flow of goods on the market is not smooth, and prices have stagnated after falling.

International oil prices continue to rise, with strong cost support and an increase in downstream demand. There are many favorable conditions for the short-term styrene market, and it is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold and the downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The enterprise quotation is Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On July 20th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 658 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.92% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 24.62% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and increased this week. As of July 14th, the spot nickel quotation was 173366.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, as China’s RMB exchange rate continues to rise, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve inflation data has been released. The data shows that the year-on-year increase in US CPI has continued to decline from 4% in May to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. It has been on a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. Affected by the cooling of US inflation, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have weakened, the US dollar continues to decline, and the metal market has reversed and turned the tide to welcome a long-awaited surge.

In terms of supply: The newly added production capacity of domestic electrolytic nickel production has been put into operation and increased, with a month on month increase in refined nickel production in June. Two new nickel production lines were added in Indonesia in June, and Russian nickel imports continued to arrive, impacting the domestic market. Nickel iron is facing a surplus situation, and supply surplus still puts pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of demand: The demand for pure nickel is differentiated in the terminal field. Maintain an overall attitude of buying stocks on dips and avoiding high prices. In terms of stainless steel, there has been a slight reduction in production due to the 300 series; Ternary precursor orders recovered, new energy and alloy demand improved, and the price of battery grade Nickel(II) sulfate rose slightly.

In summary, the global nickel explicit inventory is still at a historical low level, which is beneficial for nickel prices. The domestic supply side has increased, while traditional demand has weakened while new energy has increased. In the context of macroeconomic recovery both domestically and internationally, it is expected that the short-term volatility of nickel prices will be mainly strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.63%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the supply of goods has been normal. The recent rise in the price trend of industrial naphthalene has led to an increase in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has affected the domestic market for neighboring phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: The price trend of ortho benzene market is temporarily stable

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene was temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the price of crude oil rose this week, the cost of O-Xylene was significantly supported, the price of ortho benzene in the external market changed little, and the price trend of ortho benzene market was stable. The phthalic anhydride market rose slightly affected by this.

On the demand side: DOP market trend is rising, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

The price trend of downstream DOP market has increased, with an increase of 1.10% this week. Currently, the domestic DOP price is 9875 yuan/ton, and domestic DOP enterprises are operating steadily. Demand based procurement is the main demand for phthalic anhydride, with the mainstream price of DOP ranging from 9900 to 9900 yuan/ton. The upward trend of DOP price is favorable for the phthalic anhydride market. Overall, the demand for plasticizers in the industry is relatively stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased due to this impact.

In the future, the price trend of O-Xylene is mainly stable in the short term, but the downstream plasticizer industry is rising slightly. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is rising, and the export of phthalic anhydride has increased. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride in the future will rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 13th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall price of white carbon black has maintained its early trend.

Chemical Index: On July 10th, the chemical index stood at 806 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 42.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 34.78% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of July 11, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 926 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of 942 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early July (7.1-7.11), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a weak decline. In early July, the phosphorus ore market was operating in a weak and consolidated manner, with weak downstream demand. The overall shipment pace of the phosphorus ore market slowed down, and the mentality of the industry was average. The demand dragged down the impact. On the 11th, some mining companies in Guangxi and Guizhou lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore, with a downward adjustment of 20-50 yuan/ton, widening the gap between high and low prices on the market. As of July 11th, the domestic market price for 30% grade phosphate ore is based on 800-1000 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is light, and the overall market trend is still weak. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Acetic anhydride prices have stopped falling and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of acetic anhydride was 4987.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on July 5th, which was 4937.50 yuan/ton; The price of acetic anhydride decreased by 0.25% compared to 5000 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. In July, the price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rose.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of acetic acid was 3033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.20% compared to the price of 2883.33 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. Due to the troubleshooting of acetic acid manufacturers, the supply of acetic acid has decreased, the price of acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. In the future, the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that due to equipment failures in acetic acid enterprises, the supply of acetic acid enterprises has decreased. In July, the price of acetic acid surged, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride has increased. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, and supply and demand are temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is weak and sorted out. From July 3rd to 7th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16300 yuan/ton to 16280 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.12%, a month on month increase of 0.124%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.18%. Production enterprises’ quotations remained stable, their support for the market weakened, and downstream demand was mainly in demand. Traders’ quotations were narrowed down.

The supply side is relatively abundant in the market.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene is experiencing fluctuations and rising prices in the domestic pure benzene market. The crude oil and styrene market also showed strong performance, and the industry’s mentality towards the future market has recovered, with a slight shift in the focus of negotiations. On July 7th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 6228.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6183.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: The price of domestic aniline has continuously decreased. The supply of aniline is sufficient, although it is affected by factors such as the off-season of consumption in downstream summer, traders and downstream users have weak stocking intentions and poor purchasing interest. On July 7th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 9325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -8.80% compared to the beginning of this month (10225.00 yuan/ton). The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the buying momentum on the demand side is weak, and the demand for the cold industry is slightly shrinking. The peak season demand in the pipeline market has not yet started, and the market follow-up is relatively average, resulting in insufficient overall boosting power. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is bearish.

In the future market forecast, the current transaction is weak, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.